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North American Drought Briefingfor Nov 2011

and Sep_Nov 2011

Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

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Current Partners

CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek

NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker

Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield

Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla,

Web Masters: Joe Harrison

RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt

Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS & NASA

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P anomalies over the United States

High lights:

Nov 2011

• Dryness over the Gulf states , Minnesota and Wisconsin continues.

•Oregon and Northern California were dry

• Heavy Rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley

•Rainfall over Oklahoma, Arkasas and Texas relieved drought

4Dry period in JAS Nov rainfall relieves drought

Area: 93-103W,28-35N

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SPI• Rainfall in Nov improved dry conditions over Texas ,OK and that shows in the SPI3.

•spi6 and SPI12 show severe drought conditions over Texas , Oklahoma and New Mexico

•Drought over the Southeast and along the Gulf continues

•Drought over Minn , Ill and Wisconsin has worsened

The wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio Valley has continued for 3 months

Pacific northwest ???

D3 D2 D1

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Streamflow percentile (USGS)

There are similarities between the SPI and streamflow:

Dry :Southern Plains, Southeast and the Gulf States

OK, AR and Kansas showed improvement

Wet: Wetness over the Northeast and Dakotas.

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

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RUNOFF 3-mo

NCEP/EMC/NLDASSRI3

U Washington

Runoff shows improvement of drought over the Southern Plains.drought worsens over Minnesota, Illinois and WisconsinDrought continues over the Southeast

EMC/NCEP

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Multi model SM information

EMC

U Washington

Wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio ValleyDryness over the Southern Plains and the Northern Plains, the Southeast and the Gulf States .

EMC/NCEP

EMC/NCEP

Keetch-Byram Drought index

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Fire over California and Texas

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Drought monitor

Dry conditions continue over the Southern Plains, NM , AZ and the Southeast

Some improvement over OK and Arkansas and Louisiana

Drought continues develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ill

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Temperature October 2011

Temperature

Warm over the eastern U.S.

SSTA

• La Nina strengthens. SSTAs the central Pacific are less than -1C•Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific and the Indian Ocean•Warm SSTAs in the North Atlantic is weakening

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OLRA

Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the centralPacific consistent with cold ENSO

The streamfunction anomaly shows the couplet straddling the Equator and a wavetrain to North America

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Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Time

Mar

Jun

Ensemble mean GFS

Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific.Regular MJO since Oct 2011.

Cold ENSOENSO

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Tropics:

•La Nina is on and will last through summer

•A negative PDO persists to winter

• Atlantic SSTAs are normal

SSTA forecasts

Update: Dec 5

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T and P fcsts for DJF 2011

Pr

precipTemp

Cold ENSO impact

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SPI forecasts based on CFSv2IC Dec 5 and 6

• Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season,

• Drought is developing over the North Plains and the Pacific Northwest

• Some improvement over the Southeast

SPI forecasts based on CFSv2

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1.

From fcst based on Nov ICs verification

It captures dryness over the Southern Plains andThe Southeast, but it misses the dryness overMinnesota, Wisconsin

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1mo

2mo

U Washington IC=20111119

2mo

SM 2mo Ro 1mo

1mo

2mo

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SM forecasts made one month ago

Verification for Nov 2011

Two month ago

EMC/Princeton sm fcsts

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Ics; Dec 2011

EMC/Princeton fcsts

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Fcst made in Nov 2011 Verification

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seasonalDrought outlook

Need to update

This month

Last month

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Conclusions

Ocean conditions :• La Nina is on and positive SSTAs over the North

Pacific with cold SSTAs along the west coastCurrent conditions:Dry: • rainfall brought some relieve over Texas,

Oklahoma and Arkansas but drought over the Southern Plains continues

• Drought continues to develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois

• Drought of the Southeast shows some improvement

Wet: Northeast and Ohio Valley

Prediction

La Nina•Cold ENSO continues through winterDrought•Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season.•SPI, UW and EMC all show the strengthening of drought over the Northern Plains over Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin.•Weakening of drought over the Southeast •Pacific Northwest: models disagree so we need to carefully monitor

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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

• We would like to thank you for your support

• Your suggestions make the briefing better.

• Agenda for the next year:

• Make seasonal soil moisture forecasts based on the CFSv2 operational

• Verify the forecasts objectively

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