1 nh’s economy: looking to the future may 10, 2012 dennis delay nhcpps board of directors sheila...
TRANSCRIPT
1
NH’s Economy: Looking to the Future
May 10, 2012
Dennis DelayNHCPPS
Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr.,
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
2
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face:
3
NH – Less of a decline, more recovery.
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
Jan-
07
Apr-0
7
Jul-0
7
Oct-07
Jan-
08
Apr-0
8
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
Oct-10
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Jul-1
1
Oct-11
Dec
200
7 =
100
US NH Manchester
New Hampshire
Manchester
United States
4
NH Recovery in business services, tourism, and durables.
Change in New Hampshire Jobs
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Man
ufac
turin
g
Constr
uctio
n
Trade
& T
rans
porta
tion
Financ
ial A
ctivit
ies
Prof &
Bus
Ser
vices
Edu &
Hea
lth S
ervic
es
Leisu
re &
Hos
pitali
ty
Gover
nmen
t
Jun07 to Jun09Mar 10 to Mar 12
55
NH’s Great Recession Occurred in 1990’s
Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - December 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
01/6
9
01/7
0
01/7
1
01/7
2
01/7
3
01/7
4
01/7
5
01/7
6
01/7
7
01/7
8
01/7
9
01/8
0
01/8
1
01/8
2
01/8
3
01/8
4
01/8
5
01/8
6
01/8
7
01/8
8
01/8
9
01/9
0
01/9
1
01/9
2
01/9
3
01/9
4
01/9
5
01/9
6
01/9
7
01/9
8
01/9
9
01/0
0
01/0
1
01/0
2
01/0
3
01/0
4
01/0
5
01/0
6
01/0
7
01/0
8
01/0
9
01/1
0
01/1
1
Thou
sand
s of
Job
s
Grey boxes represent recessionary periods
10% Job Loss
5% Job Loss
3% Job Loss
6
NH Residential Real Estate Struggles
NH Single-Family Residential Home Sales and Price (MLS)Source: NH Association of REALTORS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Units sold Median Price
Median Home Price
Number of Units Sold
Decline from the Peak:Sales -40% from 2004Price -21% from 2005
2011 YTD thru December
7
Home Prices Return to the Long Term Trend:
NH Single-Family Residential Home Price (MLS)
Source: NH Association of REALTORS
$1
34
,74
9
$1
41
,37
2
$1
52
,50
0
$1
70
,15
8
$1
88
,08
9
$2
06
,26
6
$2
27
,80
7
$2
37
,97
6
$2
26
,35
4
$2
16
,59
8
$1
87
,95
4
$1
70
,16
4
$1
69
,78
7
$1
57
,17
4
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Median Price 2000 Inflation Adjusted
Median Home Price
Inflation Adjusted Price
8
Did too many people own homes who could not afford them, at 69%?
9
Good News: New Hampshire Home Building Not as Frantic as in the 1980’s
Monthly Housing Permits in New Hampshire January 1969 to January 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
01/6
9
01/7
0
01/7
1
01/7
2
01/7
3
01/7
4
01/7
5
01/7
6
01/7
7
01/7
8
01/7
9
01/8
0
01/8
1
01/8
2
01/8
3
01/8
4
01/8
5
01/8
6
01/8
7
01/8
8
01/8
9
01/9
0
01/9
1
01/9
2
01/9
3
01/9
4
01/9
5
01/9
6
01/9
7
01/9
8
01/9
9
01/0
0
01/0
1
01/0
2
01/0
3
01/0
4
01/0
5
01/0
6
01/0
7
01/0
8
01/0
9
01/1
0
01/1
1
01/1
2
Twel
ve M
onth
Ave
rage
At A
nnua
l Rat
es
Grey boxes represent recessionary periods
10
The Local Revenue Impact: A Harder Case for Workforce Housing?
Sources: NH Department of Revenue
NH Equalized Property Value and Tax Rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Bill
ion
s
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Property Value Tax Rate
Property Values (left scale)
Tax Rate (right scale)
11
Growth in the past driven by high rates of migration.
Percent Change in NH Population
8.5%
13.8%
21.5%
24.8%
20.5%
11.4%
6.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
U.S. Census figures released in December show that the 2000s saw the slowest rate of population growth in New Hampshire in six decades. Later this year, the Census Bureau will release specific population figures for counties and communities. What will those numbers tell us about the state’s demographic patterns over the past decade? And what will they mean for the redrawing of electoral districts in the New Hampshire Legislature later this year?
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
125
We are now experiencing outmigration from the state.
Source: Office of Energy and Planning, IRS
138
Understanding the past to see the Future: Here come the baby boomers ….
1414
Long Term Public Policy Questions (part 1)
• What set of policies ensure the ongoing development of human capital upon which NH’s economy has been built? – We have been reliant on migration for higher
education? Both the population moving into the state and foreign born population have a larger proportion of college graduates.
– We can’t continue to depend on migrants for such a significant portion of our highly educated labor force
– Relative cost of living– Quality of Life
• Infrastructure – Water– Waste Water– Roads Bridges– IT Infrastructure
1515
Long Term Public Policy Questions (part 2)
• Aging– Whatever it is, we are going to have to
manage it as it’s going to change our labor markets, what people buy, what they are interested in.
• Human Capital Development– How do we take advantage of the human
capital within the baby boomer generation? – University system? – Education system for the 30 somethings
• Mitigating Competitive Disadvantages– Energy Costs– Healthcare Costs
1616
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
New Hampshire Center New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studiesfor Public Policy Studies
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr.,
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus