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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

Status Brief for ESMF

Steven Payne

December 17, 2008

NUOPC

Potential Benefits• A National System to focus on National Needs• Accelerated improvement of a National Weather

Operational Prediction Capability – Forecast Accuracy– Quantified Forecast uncertainty

• Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications

• Increased efficiency through use of shared resources• Better operational backup • Enhanced research coordination • Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG

recommendations

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NUOPC Update• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary

operational NWP• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected

coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for

NUOPC– Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007– Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and

Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)• 2008 – Appointed Project Manager

– Executing NUOPC Phase I– ESG approved interim committee chairmen– Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008– Initiated interim committee process May, 2008

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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II FOC

Beta Test Phase III

STAFFING

CODE CONV.

MGMT REPORTG MOA

INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION

OPERATIONS

OUTREACH

MAINTAIN

Full Staff

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC

ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

FOC

Quarterly Updates to Principals

STANDARDS

PARTICIPATION

TT PM, TEMPS

IOC-2IOC-1

PROTOTYPE OPS

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Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis

Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis

Navy(CNO N84)

RADM Gove

Navy(CNO N84)

RADM Gove

NOAA(Administrator)

VADM Lautenbacher

NOAA(Administrator)

VADM Lautenbacher

Executive Steering GroupExecutive Steering Group

NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD

NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD

John ZapotocnyBrian Moore

John ZapotocnyBrian Moore

Kim CurrySteve PayneKim Curry

Steve Payne

Joel ClineJeremy Potter

Joel ClineJeremy Potter

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)

Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC)Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &

RDML David Titley (CNMOC)

Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &

Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)

TechnologyTransition Process

Marc Hidalgo

TechnologyTransition Process

Marc Hidalgo

AgencyLiaisonsAgencyLiaisons

InterimCommittees

InterimCommittees

CommonModel ArchitectureScott Sandgathe

CommonModel ArchitectureScott Sandgathe

UnifiedEnsemble Operations

Mike Clancy

UnifiedEnsemble Operations

Mike Clancy

NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley

NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley

NUOPC Management Structure

Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove

LCDR Kurt Zegowitz

Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove

LCDR Kurt Zegowitz

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Expectations• NUOPC is an agreement between the three

operational production facilities to accelerate technological advances and improve efficiency through collaboration.

• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.

• A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

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Interim Committees• Three designated committees:

– Common Model Architecture Committee – Technical Transition Process Committee – Unified Ensemble Operations Committee

• Potential additional panels include Technical Transition and Information Assurance.

• Interim Committees will be split into attending members and review members in order to reduce travel and impact on members and also address FACA concerns.

• Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance.

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Committee Membership• Chairman from NUOPC staff or

operational center• Primary input from operational centers,

agency R&D activities• Broad community participation via

coordination and review membership• Working level knowledge but able to

represent constituency• NUOPC staff responsible for meeting

minutes, draft reports, schedule

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Interim Committee MembershipCommittee Focus

Common Model Architecture Technical Transition Processes

Unified Ensemble Operations

Membership

Chairman Scott Sandgathe Marc Hidalgo Mike Clancy

Agency Rep Steve Payne

NUOPC staff William O’Connor Fran Bieker Paul Demmert

AFWA Dan Sedlacek Ken Smith Steve RuggTommy Sanders

FNMOC Jeff Lerner Mark Swenson Judy PavinaMike Sestak

NOAA Mark IredellTom Black

John Ward Zoltan TothTBD (Kyger)

NRL Jim DoyleMelinda Peng

Pat Phoebus Jim Hansen

ONR 1 Dan Eleuterio

OAR 1 Julian Wang

NCAR Cecelia Delucca Bob Gall

NASA Max Suarez

FAA 1 1

NSF 1

Other Fed (DOE, DOT, etc.) Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA) 2

TOTAL 13 12 12

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Common Model Architecture Committee

Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort.

• Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of implementation.

• Agree to additional software or hardware standards required to promote interoperability.

• Minimize disruption to operational centers and existing development efforts.

• Estimate cost and time to implement.

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Committee Issues - CMA• Standard Model Architecture - ESMF

– How deep to implement?– How to resolve & align present NRL/EMC

approaches– NASA MAPL and European OASIS?

• Standard model structure• Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.)• Exchangeable model technology at

component level• Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure• Standard I/O interfaces• Standard model metadata• Cost & time to implement

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Technology Transition Process Committee

Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies.

• Define common operational needs and translate to common requirements

• Develop a common research agenda and direction• Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS

– Funding, support, security, etc.

• Align agency processes to transition new technology to operations

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Committee Issues - TTP• DTC/VTC/VSP

– At center, at other site, multiple locations, virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc.

• Common research agenda (requirements, agenda, investment)– How do we get requirements from the three agencies? How to

we merge the list? How do we turn requirements into a research agenda? How do we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund agenda?

• Aligned transition process– What is important to align? How will it improve life?

• Info assurance– How do we guarantee code is not corrupt?– How do we meet agency code release requirements and still

give broad community access?

• Cost & time to implement

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Unified Ensemble Operations CommitteeTask: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept

(CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products.

• Identify unified ensemble operations requirements including:– Standard output format – Ensemble configuration– Product delivery schedule– Process for assembly and dissemination – Common post processing, if appropriate– Network security– Coordinated software update cycle– Data archival processes (who, what, where, how)– Communications, bandwidth and hardware acquisition

• Estimate cost and time to implement

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Committee Goals• Minimize operational center disruption• Achieve common architecture objectives while

sustaining developmental headway• Achieve full stakeholder support• Develop well-defined standards that will focus

research community participation and accelerate development

• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology

• Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

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Schedule & Deliverables

• Membership approved June-July 2008.

• Initial meetings summer 2008

• Draft final report for external coordination March 2009.

• Revised committee reports for Agency coordination May 2009.

• Internal Agency approval June 2009.

• ESG Approval August 2009.

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Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09

Phase I Tasks

Beg

in P

has

e I

I Im

ple

men

tati

on

IOC-1

PM & Staff Review

Interagency Review & Coord

Committee Tasks

Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approval Draft Standards Reports

Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS

PM & Staff integrate Committee task results

Review committees’ progress

Coord

NominateEstablish Committees

Committees/Panels work tasks Follow up

Apr 08

Sep 09

Committee Reports to PM & Staff

Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08