1 maryland’s scenario building efforts: the national center for smart growth uri avin, faicp...
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Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts:Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth The National Center for Smart Growth
Uri Avin, FAICPUri Avin, FAICPPractice Leader, Regional Growth Practice Leader, Regional Growth
Management, PBPlacemakingManagement, PBPlacemakingBaltimore, MDBaltimore, MD
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Maryland State Planning StatutesMaryland State Planning Statutes
§ 5-602.
(a) Plan required.- The Department shall prepare and from time to time revise a plan or plans for development of the State. The plan or plans collectively shall be known as the State Development Plan.
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Series of unique Series of unique GROWTH VISIONING GROWTH VISIONING EXERCISES EXERCISES held in four regions of the state.held in four regions of the state.
Key Principles:Key Principles:
StatewideStatewide
Privately fundedPrivately funded
Action OrientedAction Oriented
Reality Check Reality Check PLUSPLUS
© Paul Coelus, Waterford, Inc. 2006
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NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTHNATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH Research and Education at the University of MarylandResearch and Education at the University of Maryland
The The URBAN LAND INSTITUTEURBAN LAND INSTITUTE Baltimore District Baltimore District CouncilCouncil
1000 FRIENDS1000 FRIENDS of Maryland of Maryland
Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust…Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust…
More than More than 100 ORGANIZATIONS100 ORGANIZATIONS representing representing community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart growth and environmental interests were involved in growth and environmental interests were involved in this effort.this effort.
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Hagerstown Community CollegeHagerstown Community College
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BaltimoreBaltimore
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Post-event Post-event ANALYSISANALYSIS
COMPARISON SCENARIOSCOMPARISON SCENARIOS
Existing ConditionsExisting ConditionsCOG forecastsCOG forecastsBuild-outBuild-outReality Check ResultsReality Check Results
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Compared with Buildout and COG Compared with Buildout and COG forecasts, RCP results would have..forecasts, RCP results would have..
More jobs and housing close to transit;More jobs and housing close to transit;More jobs and housing inside priority More jobs and housing inside priority
funding areas;funding areas;Less development on green infrastructure; Less development on green infrastructure;
andandLess new impervious surfaces.Less new impervious surfaces.
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The Maryland Scenario The Maryland Scenario ProjectProject
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The purpose of the Maryland The purpose of the Maryland Scenario Project is….Scenario Project is….
To take an informed and careful look at To take an informed and careful look at alternative long-term future scenarios;alternative long-term future scenarios;
To conduct a quantitative assessment of To conduct a quantitative assessment of each scenario;each scenario;
To identify where and how public policy To identify where and how public policy decisions will increase the likelihood of decisions will increase the likelihood of more desirable scenarios.more desirable scenarios.
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The Time is Right for Several The Time is Right for Several ReasonsReasons
New administration with interest in New administration with interest in information-driven policymaking.information-driven policymaking.
Strong momentum from Reality Check Strong momentum from Reality Check exercise.exercise.
Mounting evidence Smart Growth not Mounting evidence Smart Growth not having intended effects.having intended effects.
Critical policy decisions lie just ahead.Critical policy decisions lie just ahead.Because we can.Because we can.
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Critical Policy DecisionsCritical Policy Decisions
How to finance Bay clean up?How to finance Bay clean up?Where to invest next in transit?Where to invest next in transit?Whether to build more bridges?Whether to build more bridges?Whether to toll existing roads?Whether to toll existing roads?How to target economic development?How to target economic development?Where to invest in land conservation?Where to invest in land conservation?How to manage drinking water supply?How to manage drinking water supply?How to revitalize Baltimore?How to revitalize Baltimore?
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Scenario Analysis ExerciseScenario Analysis Exercise
Identification of social, economic, Identification of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological environmental, political, and technological driving forcesdriving forces
Development of scenarios from those Development of scenarios from those driving forcesdriving forces
Spatial articulation of alternative scenariosSpatial articulation of alternative scenariosEvaluation of spatial scenariosEvaluation of spatial scenariosPolicy sensitivity analysisPolicy sensitivity analysis
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Elements of a Development Elements of a Development ScenarioScenario
Certain EventsCertain EventsContinued job growth in the B/W corridor;Continued job growth in the B/W corridor;Rising energy prices;Rising energy prices;Continued immigrationContinued immigration
Uncertain EventsUncertain EventsEconomic revitalization of Baltimore;Economic revitalization of Baltimore;High investment in intercity transitHigh investment in intercity transitGreater state land use interventionGreater state land use intervention
Elements of a Development Scenario
Certain EventsContinued job growth in the B/W corridor;Rising energy prices;Continued immigration
Uncertain EventsEconomic revitalization of Baltimore;Sea level rise making Eastern Shore
uninhabitableRising incentives for development in PFAs
Urban Diamond
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Ongoing and follow-up researchOngoing and follow-up research
Energy consumption modelEnergy consumption modelEnvironmental impact modelEnvironmental impact modelFiscal impact modelFiscal impact modelHousing cost and housing type modelHousing cost and housing type modelStatewide transportation modelStatewide transportation modelLand use allocation modelLand use allocation model
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To where does this lead?To where does this lead?
Short term products: Short term products: 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an
evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public policy choicespolicy choices
A set of data and tools for future policy analysisA set of data and tools for future policy analysis
Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities include….include…. Nothing moreNothing more A set of policy recommendationsA set of policy recommendations A statewide planA statewide plan
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Partners for Land Use SuccessPartners for Land Use Success
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Project TeamProject Team
National Center for Smart GrowthNational Center for Smart GrowthGerrit Knaap, John FreceGerrit Knaap, John Frece
Parsons-Brinckerhoff Parsons-Brinckerhoff Uri Avin, Marsha KaiserUri Avin, Marsha Kaiser
ECONorthwestECONorthwestTerry MooreTerry Moore
Integrated Planning ConsultantsIntegrated Planning ConsultantsJason SartoriJason Sartori
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Funding SourcesFunding Sources
Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection AgencyLincoln Institute of Land PolicyLincoln Institute of Land PolicyHomebuilders Association of MarylandHomebuilders Association of MarylandEnterprise Community Partners Enterprise Community Partners Chesapeake Bay TrustChesapeake Bay TrustCafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell Cafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell
FoundationFoundationOthers in the worksOthers in the works