1 | klaus butterbach-bahl imk-ifu | 13.05.2009 ris Ø dtu kit – die kooperation von...

1 | Klaus Butterbach-Bahl IMK-IFU | 13.05.2009 RisØ DTU

KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

Feedback from terrestrial productivity changes to the climate

Model predictions of greenhouse gas emission at a regional scale

Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

Institute for Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)

Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany


Global Changes and soil N2O and CH4 exchangeC

limat

ech

ange

Atm

osph

.C

ompo

s.La

nd u

se

CO2

N-Dep.(O3, …)

Precip.

Temp.

Change

Manag.

Ph

ysic

o-c

hem

ical

en

viro

nm

ent

(rad

iat.

, so

il T

& -

moi

st.,

com

pact

., O

2, C

/N a

vail.

)

Plant Physiology(WUE, Photosynthesis)

Plant speciescomposition

Soil C and N turnover

Soil microbialcommunity

Plant litter (QA/QN)& Exudation

Nitrification

Denitrification

CH4-Prod.

CH4-Oxid.

Biospere-A

tmosphere E

xchange of CH

4 & N

2 O


Understanding the environmental feedbacks between C

and N cycling

CH4

CO2

VOC

NOx

N2O

60-70%

60-70%

Isoprenoid-production

90%

Nitrification DenitrificationMethanogenesisCH4-Oxidation

Photosynthesis

Increased SOC

+soil microbialactivity

+soilN-

cycling

-O2

avail.+DOCavail.

Increased N2O

KIT – die Kooperation vonForschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbHund Universität Karlsruhe (TH)4 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ

The challenge: Regional fluxes

Bridging the gap: process understanding ↔ ecosystem/ regional fluxes

Empirical/ statistical approaches for inventoriesoIPCC and emission factorsoRobust (most likely), but can hardly be used for

oevaluating land use/ land management strategies, or

oassessing climate-biosphere feedbacks

Process oriented modelingoDayCent, DNDC, CERES, COUP, etc.oComplex processes descriptions, high parameter demandostill need further development and UC assessment, but

oprovide realistic simulation of ecosystem processes

oallow to test hypotheses,

ocan be used to assess global change feedbacks



em ission of NO, N 2O, N2, NH 3 and CH 4predicted gas fluxes predicted gas fluxes

N O

N 2O

N 2

NO 2-

denitrifie r

N 2O -denitrifie r

denitrifie r

n itrifier

N O 3-

N H 3

c lay-m inera ls

N 2O

N O N H 3

N O 3-

DO C

exchange ofNO, N 2O, NO 3

-

NH 4+DO C

CO 2

NH 4+

DO C

non-degradable organic m atter

very labile labile res istant

degradable organic m atter

degradable m icrob ial m atter

very lab ile res is tant

degradable hum ines

lab ile res is tant

m ineralisation

tree growth

w aterdem and

rootresp iration

w ater uptakeby roots

w ater stress

photo-synthes is

b io-m ass

leave-N -

content

p lantresp iration

leaves

w ood

root

N-dem and

C O 2

soilm oisture

profile

O 2-pro file

O 2-d iffus ion

m eanannual

tem perat.

da ilyevapotrans-

p ira tion

evaporation transp ira-tion

w aterm ovem entin the so il

soilT-profile

LA Idepending

albedo

ecologicaldriver

soil vegetationclim ate ecologicaldriver

hum an im pact

Effect of tem perature and m oisture on m ineralisation

predicted soilenvironm ental forces substrate (C, N) temperature m oisture pH

anaerobicballoon

PnET-N-DNDC-Model

m ethanogenesis

CH4-oxidation

CO 2m ethanotrophic bacteria

- d iffus ion- gasbubbles- p lant tranpsort

m ethanogenic bacteria

CH 4

D O C C O 2

soil climate

N -uptakeby roots

nitrificationdenitrification

nitra te

n itrite

Process oriented modeling of biosphere-atmosphere exchange



ISRIC-WISE

ESDB v1

Clay contentpHbulk density

TemperaturePrecipitationPARLatitude

SOCMap of TopsoilOrganicCarbon

MM5

CAPRI Crop type/area

Sowing andHarvest date (2003)

LUCAS

Polygon

1x1 km2

Grid

10x10 km2

Grid

Fertilizer inputYield (kg/ha)

1x1 km2 Grid

NUTS Regions

Points

Data sourceData content format

SOIL

CLIMATE

MANAGEMENT

10km x 10km Grid

Spatialinformation

GISDATABASE

DNDC

EmissionInventoryof European

agricultural soils

EUStat

EMEP N deposition 50x50 km2

Grid

GIS database for DNDC

GIS coupling for GIS – the problem of data


Global N2O budget


Model testing


Model testing Motivation

Strategy

Sites&Methods

Results

Australia

Global

OutlookS

imul

ated

N2O

-em

issi

ons

[g N

ha-1

]

Measured N2O-emissions [g N ha-1]


LPJ-DGVM

Lund-Potsdam-Jena DynamicGlobal Vegetation Model

[SMITH et al., 2001, SITCH et al.,2003; ZAEHLE and SITCH,

2005] ForestDNDCtropica v0.2

[this study, LI et al., 2000; KIESEet al., 2005]

Drivers:integrated binary dataset:

CRU climate datasetFAO global soil database

wood mass, leaf mass,litter mass

Climate

ECMWF RA-40 Forecast0.5x0.5°; daily(1991- 2000)

temperature (min/max);rainfall; PAR

Soil

spatial: FAO global soilmap; 0.25x0.25° (rs)

profile data: ISRIC-WISE

topsoil attributes:pH, SOC, texture, BD, ...

Forest Area

spatial: GLC2000;0.25x0.25° (rs)

ecozones: followingBLASCO et al., 2000

BIOMASS

Global N2O emissioninventory for tropical

rainforest soils

Global GIS


Global N2O inventory

Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.


Interannual variability

Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.


Comparison with earlier estimates

• What is the area we are talking about?

(all N2O emissions scaled to the area used in this study;

orange: scaled / white: original)

• Matson and Vitousek 1990: 1.8 Tg N yr-1 (2.4 Tg N yr-1)

• Bouwman et al. 1995: 1.5 Tg N yr-1 (2.3 Tg N yr-1)

• Potter 1998: 1.3 Tg N yr-1

• Breuer et al. 2000: 2.6 Tg N yr-1 (3.55 Tg N yr-1)

• Stehfest and Bouwman 2006: 1.5 Tg N yr-1 (1.17 Tg N yr-1)

• This study: 1.3 Tg N yr-1 (± 0.3 SD) Werner et al., 2007, JGR – Global Biogeochem. Cycl.



ISRIC-WISE

ESDB v1

Clay contentpHbulk density

TemperaturePrecipitationPARLatitude

SOCMap of TopsoilOrganicCarbon

MM5

CAPRI Crop type/area

Sowing andHarvest date (2003)

LUCAS

Polygon

1x1 km2

Grid

10x10 km2

Grid

Fertilizer inputYield (kg/ha)

1x1 km2 Grid

NUTS Regions

Points

Data sourceData content format

SOIL

CLIMATE

MANAGEMENT

10km x 10km Grid

Spatialinformation

GISDATABASE

DNDC

EmissionInventoryof European

agricultural soils

EUStat

EMEP N deposition 50x50 km2

Grid

GIS database for DNDC

Predictions for Europe



Identifying key regions and interannual variabilities


Crop yield - statistics

Crop yield - DAYCENT

Simulated N2O

Simulated NO3 leaching

Del Grosso et al., 2006, J. Env. Qual.

Identifying key regions



Simulated forest area of Europe: 1 410 477km2

NO Emissions

Minimum

Scenariokt N a-1

AverageScenariokt N a-1

Maximum

Scenariokt N a-1

199019952000

453845

988599

248220254

Inventorying soil N trace gas fluxes and identifying feedbacks

-50 -20 -10 0 10 20 50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Re

lativ

e c

ha

ng

e in

N2O

an

d N

O e

mis

sio

ns

[%]

N Deposition change in %

N2O

NO


Climate change feedbacks

( 2031-2039) - (1991-2000) [A2 scenario]

ECHAM4 MCCM/MM5 regionalisation (60kmx60km)


Climate change feedbacks ( 2031-2039) - (1991-2000)

Seasonal changes in soil moisture

Kesik et al., 2006, JGR - Biogeosciences



Climate feedbacks on forest soil N2O/NO emissions

Temp. NON2OPrecip.



Climate feedbacks on forest soil N2O/NO emissions





Climate feedbacks on N2O/N2 ratio. Is this realistic?


N2 fixation

Denitrification

BiologicallyAvailable N

N-Cycle

Climate warming

Land use changeFossil fuel

burning

Atmosphericreactive N

AtmosphericCO2

Bio

geo

ch

emic

al C

ycle

sA

tmo

sph

eri

cd

rive

rsH

um

and

rive

rs

+ +

+ ?

Industrial N2

fixation

+

+

−+ ?

+

−?

?? ?

+

Primaryproduction

Carbon Cycle

C/Nratio ++

?

+ −?−

+

Gruber & Galloway, Nature 2008



Summary

• Nr emission/ deposition processes are by far more complex as

compared to e.g. CO2-exchange processes, due to

• Complexity of involved processes

• Complexity of feedbacks to environmental drivers

• Nr cascading on landscape/regional and global scales

• Understanding of microbial production and consumption processes

under changing environmental conditions is still incomplete, and

• Link between process understanding, field observations and model

implementation cannot always be established

• Closing the N cycling remains difficult due to uncertain N2 losses

• Long-term measurements are needed [holistic approach]

• Models need to address the regional scale and linking of

biogeochemical models to hydrological models is needed



Atmosphere

Soil

mineral N organic N

SOIL TRANSFERS Heat (Fourier) Water (Tipping bucket) Nitrate (Convective)

absorption

C-N BIOTRANSFORMATIONS Mineralisation - Immobilisation

Nitrification - Denitrificationdrainage,nitrate

leaching

PLANT PROCESSES Phenology Ressource capture PartitioningSenescence

crop residues

Groundwater

CO2, N

2O,

NH3, NO

Process oriented modeling of ecosystem N- (C-) fluxes

Crop type/fertilization

Humanmanagement

Tillage/drainage

Biomass removal

Atmospheric N input



denitrification

CH4-productionCO2

DOC CH4

nitrification

anaerobic soil matrix

CH4-consumptionCO2 CH4

NO3- → NO2

- → NO → N2O → N2

NO3- NO2

- NH4+

NO

N2O

aerobic soil matrix

Conceptual model of an anaerobic balloon



0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

corn/oat/clover

corncorn/oat+clover

SO

C;

0-2

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il)

A

0

20

40

60

80

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

manure fertizer controlS

OC

; 0

-20

cm

(t

C/h

a) B

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

corn/oat/clover

corncorn/oat+clover

SO

C;

0-2

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il)

A

0

20

40

60

80

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000


OC

; 0

-20

cm

(t

C/h

a) B

0.01

0.02

0.03

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990SO

C;

0-2

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il)

C

0

20

40

60

80

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000


OC

; 0

-20

cm

(t

C/h

a) B

0.01

0.02

0.03

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990SO

C;

0-2

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il)

C

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

1920 1940 1960 1980SO

C;

0-1

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il)

D

0.01

0.02

0.03

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990SO

C;

0-2

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il) C

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

1920 1940 1960 1980SO

C;

0-1

0 c

m (

kg C

/kg

so

il) D

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1980 1990 2000

SO

C;

0-3

0 c

m (

kg C

/ha

)

E

Illinois, USA Rothamsted, UK

Bad Lauchstädt, Germany Waite, Australia

Li, Frolking, Butterbach-Bahl, Climatic Change, 2005

barley/potato/wheat/sugarbeet Winter wheat

wheat/fallow

Model evaluation: SOC dynamics



0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

0.3 - 0.40.03-0.050.02 - 0.030.006 - 0.02

sim

ula

ted a

nnual N

2O

flux

(kg N

/ha/y

r)

observed annual N2O flux (kg N/ha/yr)

SOC (kg C/kg soil)

Model evaluation: N2O fluxes

Li, Frolking, Butterbach-Bahl, Climatic Change, 2005



0 60 120 180 240 300 360

0

10

20

0

15

30

45

60Hoeglwald Spruce, 2002

N2O

-Em

issi

on

[g N

ha-1

day

-1]

Julian Day

NO

-Em

issi

on

[g N

ha-1

day

-1]

0 60 120 180 240 300 360-5

0

5

10

15

200

10

20

30

40Soroe, 2003

N2O

-Em

issi

on

[g N

ha-1

day

-1]

Julian Day

NO

-Em

issi

on

[g N

ha-1

day

-1]

Model evaluation: NO fluxes [forests]

Kesik et al., 2006, Biogeosciences

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

5

10

15

20

25

34

67

8

9

10

11

12

13

1415

16

17

18

19

2021

27

30

31

40

41

43

4445

47

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Site averages ± SE

R2 = 0.85

f(x) = 0.73xn = 26

R2 = 0.78P < 0.0001

Sim

ula

ted

ave

rag

e d

aily

NO

em

issi

on

(g

N h

a-1 d

-1)

Average daily NO emission as derived from

field measurements (g N ha-1 d-1)



Eh changes driven in CH4/N2O fluxes in rice paddies

Li et al., 2005,Glob.Biogeochem. Cycl.



4

8

12

16

20

24

4

8

12

4

8

12

4

8

12

2000 2001 2002 2003

4

8

12

16

Simuliert(Forest-DNDC) Gemessen

30 cm

140 cm

80 cm

50 cm

5 cm

Vo

lum

etr

isch

er

Wa

sse

rge

ha

lt [

cm

/ m

³]

Altdorf

12

18

24

30

36

12

18

24

30

36

12

18

24

30

36

12

18

24

30

36

2000 2001 2002 200312

18

24

30

36

Simuliert(Forest-DNDC) Gemessen

20 cm

120 cm

80 cm

40 cm

5 cm

Vo

lum

etr

isch

er

Wa

sse

rge

ha

lt [

cm

/ m

³]

Flossenbürg

Model evaluation: Soil water fluxes

1 | klaus butterbach-bahl imk-ifu | 13.05.2009 ris Ø dtu kit – die kooperation von...

Documents

o folie

tg n yr

increased n

o budget folie

measured n

o emissions

soil n cycling

n cycling ch