1 intuitive lawmaking: the example of child support ira mark ellman sanford braver robert j. maccoun...
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1
Intuitive Lawmaking: The Example of Child Support
Ira Mark Ellman
Sanford Braver
Robert J. MacCoun
Conference on Empirical Legal StudiesNew York UniversityNovember 2007
4
Some of Our Questions What do people favor?
Decision principles Child-support amounts Do their favored amounts follow logically from the
principles they explicitly endorse? Is there consensus? Do characteristics like gender matter? Are Lay intuitions on support amounts
consistent with existing law?
5
Method: Survey Instruments Who We Ask
Members of jury pool in Tucson Good community sample 70% response rate to long forms Today’s data from first 2 sessions About 400 respondents
Continuing study Nine weeks of further variations Gender among them
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What We Ask Likerts: 1 (strong disagree) to 7 (strong agree) Support Amounts in Scenarios that assume
One child (9 year old boy) Mom is CP, Dad is support obligor Son “lives mostly with Mom, but Dad sees him
often” Dad earns $6000, $4000, or $2000 a month in
“take-home pay”. Mom: $5,000, $3,000, or $1,000
Every subject asked about all nine income combinations
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Likert Items 1 through 3
Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
CHILD WELL-BEING
The most important reason to require child support payments is to ensure the well-being of children.
92.6
(1)
1.4 No Diff
GROSS DISPARITY
The father should be required to pay only the child support amount needed to make the child completely comfortable, even if the father has a high income and lives much better than the child.‡
21.6 37.9 Men
(.70)
If the father has a lot more money than the mother has, he should pay enough child support to make sure the child doesn't live too much worse than he lives.
57.2
(5)
7.2 Women
(.65)
10
Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
EARNER’S PRIORITY PRINCIPLE
The father should be required to pay child support even if he is in poverty.‡
30.7 32.1 Women(.84)
The father should not have to pay so much child support that his children live better than he lives.
39.6 18.1 No Diff
While child support is very important, the father should be able to keep enough of his earnings to be able to feed himself and pay for a decent place to live.
76.8
(2)
3.5 No Diff
Likert Items 4 through 6
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Likert Items 7 through 9
Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
DUAL-OBLIGATION
Even if the mother has enough money to provide the child with everything that might be important to the child's well-being, the father should still have to pay some child support.
69.2
(3)
7.1 Women
(.77)
The mother should receive child support payments from the father even if she can meet the child's basic physical and educational needs without them.
58.7
(4)
7.7 Women
(.74)
When the mother has enough money to support the child fully, the father should not have to pay child support at all.‡
8.1 72.4 Men
(.90)
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Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
NO COMPELLED SUPPORT
Parents should support their children, but the law should never force one parent to pay child support to the other.
6.6 78.3 Men(.57)
DECENT MINIMUM ONLY
We should only require enough child support to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. There should be no additional child support required beyond that.
15.0 49.7 Men
(.62)
Child support should not be limited to the amount needed to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. If the father can afford it, he should be required to pay more.‡
50.5 11.9 Women
(.83)
Likert Items 10 through 12
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Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
POOI
Even if the mother's income goes up a lot, the fathers required child support payments should stay the same.
27.2 34.1 Women
(.96)
The more income the mother earns, the less the father should have to pay in child support.‡
5.3 27.6 Men(1.16)
ENSURE NO FINANCIAL LOSS FROM DIVORCE
The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the child from suffering any financial loss from divorce.
56.3 8.4 Women(.88)
The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the mother and child from suffering any financial loss from divorce.
41.3 14.8 Women(.96)
Likert Items 13 through 16
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Item % Who Clearly Agree
% Who Clearly
Disagree
Men or Women Agree More?
ENSURE MARITAL LIVING STANDARD
The father should be required to pay enough child support to make sure that the child lives as well as he or she did during the marriage.
45.4 12.5 Women(.93)
ENSURE EQUAL LIVING STANDARD
The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child lives as well as he does.
46.7 11.6 Women(.90)
The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child and mother live as well as he does.
31.1 22.6 Women(.72)
The purpose of child support is not to make sure the child lives as well as the father.‡
36.1 27.4 Men(.46)
Likert Items 17-20
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Table Three: Rotated Component Matrix Factor
Item 1 2 3 4
The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child and mother live as well as he does. EQ
.804
The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the mother and child from suffering any financial loss from divorce. NL
.786
The father should be required to pay enough child support to make sure that the child lives as well as he or she did during the marriage. NL
.758
The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child lives as well as he does. EQ
.739 -.168
If the father has a lot more money than the mother has, he should pay enough child support to make sure the child doesn't live too much worse than he lives. GD
.706
-.198
The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the child from suffering any financial loss from divorce. NL
.678
.243
.196
Child support should not be limited to the amount needed to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. If the father can afford it, he should be required to pay more. -DM
.544
.237
-.389
The mother should receive child support payments from the father even if she can meet the child's basic physical and educational needs without them. DO
.162
.685
-.176
.173
Even if the mother has enough money to provide the child with everything that might be important to the child's well-being, the father should still have to pay some child support. DO
.210
.675
.216
The father should be required to pay child support even if he is in poverty. -EPP
.666 -.162
The more income the mother earns, the less the father should have to pay in child support. -POOI
-.665 .314
Even if the mother's income goes up a lot, the father's required child support payments should stay the same. POOI
.257 .659 .229 -.304
When the mother has enough money to support the child fully, the father should not have to pay child support at all. -DO
-.604 .401
•EFA explains 52%
•1 = GD+
•Mean rating = 4.99
•2 = Dual Obligation
•Mean rating = 4.82
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We should only require enough child support to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. There should be no additional child support required beyond that. DM
-.196
-.205
.656
Parents should support their children, but the law should never force one parent to pay child support to the other. NS
-.237
.629 -.172
The father should be required to pay only the child support amount needed to make the child completely comfortable, even if the father has a high income and lives much better than the child. -GD
-.262
.616
.221
The purpose of child support is not to make sure the child lives as well as the father. -EQ -.204 .302
While child support is very important, the father should be able to keep enough of his earnings to be able to feed himself and pay for a decent place to live. EPP
.697
The most important reason to require child support payments is to ensure the well-being of children. WB -.244 .517
The father should not have to pay so much child support that his children live better than he lives. EPP .510
Factors 3 & 4
• 3: Capping Father’s Responsibility– Most disagree: mean rating 2.81
• 4: Earner’s Priority– Highest average agreement of all: 5.69
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Child Support Amounts Each respondent is asked to make 9
judgments (3 x 3 income matrix) We construct a regression model predicting
subject i’s preferred support amount in case j: Constant + coefficient * Mom’s income +
coefficient * Dad’s income + coefficient *Mom’s income * Dad’s income + error term
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• Average regression lines show– Respondents believe mom’s income matters– Lower CP income yields steeper slope
Low income mom
High Income mom
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“Coherent Arbitrariness” Considerable dispersion in the Y-intercept
95% confidence interval is 249 to 366 Little dispersion in the slopes
CP income = -82 per 1000 95% confidence interval is -89 to -75
NCP income = 185 per 1000 95% confidence interval of 177 to 193
Ariely called this pattern “coherent arbitrariness” Initial choice is arbitrary Relative values are coherent.
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Connecting Principles with Cases Can we predict preferred support amounts
from Likert ratings of support principles? Factor 1 (GD +) as example Compare the average child support
regression line of two groups Agree more with Gross Disparity + (High
Rating) Agree Less with Gross Disparity + (Low
Rating) Method: Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM)
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Details of the Groups
Agree with Gross Disparity Plus Mean item rating: 6.32 1 SD above group mean
Disagree with Gross Disparity Plus: Mean item rating: 3.59 1 SD below group mean
Group Mean = 4.99, SD = 1.33
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583
814
1800
211397
551
288
365
705
1044
349
673
997
483
941
1399
617
1209
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000 4000 6000
Child
Sup
port
Awar
ds
Father’s Income
Mother’s Income: ▲= 5000 ■ = 3000 ● = 1000Gross Disparity +: Low High
Gross Disparity+ as Predictor of Child Support Amounts
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What Prior Slide Tells Us Within each Factor 1 group, basic pattern repeats
CS amounts go down as CP income rises, and go up as NCP income rises
If you rate GD+ high, then You prefer more CS at any point You increase support amounts more rapidly
with increasing NCP income. These differences in CS amounts follow
logically from the GD+ ratings
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Some of Our Answers: Within individuals
Beliefs, as measured by attitudes toward 20 principles, reflect a consistent pattern
Preferred support amounts in particular cases reflect these beliefs about principles
Between individuals Men and women really are different
and it’s legal nurture as well as nature Individual support schedules differ in their starting
point but not much in their slope People care more about child well-being than
does existing law