cannabis science & policy summit - day 2 - maccoun
TRANSCRIPT
Re-Learning from the Dutch CoffeeshopExperienceRob MacCounStanford Law School
2011
US-style prohibition
Dutch-style de facto
legalization
2011 2016
Stanford University
US-style prohibition
Dutch-style de facto legalization:• Sword of Damocles• Artificially high
prices• THC limits
US-style legalization:• aggressive
marketing• minimal
price controls?
Change Had No Effect on Prevalence During First Decade...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96
Percentever used
Policy Change
18 yr olds
MacCoun & Reuter (1997, Science)
…But Use Increased Sharply in Second Decade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96
Percentever used
Increase was steeper than
seen elsewhere in Europe
MacCoun & Reuter (1997, Science)
Why?Commercialization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Coffeeshops
inAmsterdam
1980 1985 1988
But Dutch less likely to move on to hard drugs
MacCoun (Addiction, 2011)
Availability and youth use
Escalation to regular
use
Treatmentrates
(vs. US)
Treatment rates (vs. Europe)
Key caveat: Dutch prices stayed high
MacCoun (2011): two different estimates
First showed 2005 prices per gram comparable for Dutch Nederwiet and US marijuana herb
But Dutch cheaper on purity-adjusted basis
Second showed US prices actually lower
But roughly comparable on a purity-adjusted basis
“…prices in the Netherlands are elevated by their unusual hybrid regime which approximates legalization at the user level, but European style prohibition at the level of the growers and traffickers…”
Marcel de Kort
To understand Dutch policy, need to understand the heroin threat in the 1970s
H. Cohen’s sociological interpretation of the “gateway theory”: Separate the markets to prevent contact with hard-drug dealers
Franz Trautmann
Policy window that opened (in 1970s) and has closed (past decade)
Unintended conseqs include growth of street dealing
Production shifting to Belgium?
Move toward rationalizing the “back door problem” through overt regulation
Tom Blickman
Contrary to “laissez-faire” image, Dutch have actively struggled to regulate the coffeeshops
Tightening rules
Closing shops
“weed pass”
THC limits
Regulating supply?
Tom Blickman
Dutch no longerhave highest rate
Niesink et al (2015) THC potency
2011 2016
Stanford University
US-style prohibition
Dutch-style de facto legalization:• Sword of Damocles• Artificially high
prices• THC limits
US-style legalization:• aggressive
marketing• minimal
price controls?
Two images
Sword of Damocles Regulatory Capture
How will Dutch respond to the end of US bullying?
