1 global climate change emissions inventory to support ab 1493 workshop december 3, 2002 air...

1

Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory to

Support AB 1493

Workshop

December 3, 2002

Air Resources Board Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection AgencyCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency

2California Air Resources Board

Workshop Panel

Doug Thompson, Moderator Chuck Shulock, Speaker Jon Taylor, Speaker Nehzat Motallebi, Speaker Jeff Long Hector Maldonado Kevin Nesbitt


Overview Background Framework for the Inventory Inventory for Identified GCC Pollutants Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants

Under Consideration Ongoing Research and Inventory

Development Additional Questions, Comments, and

Discussion

4

Background


AB 1493 Findings Global warming is a matter of increasing

concern for public health and the environment in California– Reductions in the state’s water supply– Adverse health impacts– Adverse impacts on agriculture– Increased risk of forest fires– Damage to coastline– Impacts on California’s economy


AB 1493 General Requirements By January 1, 2005 Board to adopt

regulations that achieve maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles

Report to Legislature and Governor by January 1, 2005

Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 2006

Regulations apply only to 2009 and later model years


In Developing Regulations … Consider technical feasibility Consider impact on economy of state Provide flexibility as to means of

compliance Grant credit for early reductions Conduct public workshops

– Communities with significant exposure to air contaminants, including communities with minority or low-income populations


Regulations Shall Not Require...

Fees or taxes on vehicle, fuel or VMT Ban on sale of any vehicle category Reduction in vehicle weight Limitation on or reduction of speed limit Limitation on or reduction of VMT


Process Overview

Technical Assessment

(Individual tasks)

Staff findings/Workshops/Board update Staff

Proposal

Draft report Workshop

Board Adoption

Staff report

Board hearing

20024Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2003 2004


MilestonesDetailed technical work

Initial workshop (GCC inventory) December 2002Symposium on vehicle technology March 2003Additional workshops VariousSummary workshop October 2003Board update November 2003

Draft staff proposalRelease staff draft May 2004Workshop June 2004

Final staff proposal July 2004

Board adoption September 2004

Report to Legislature/GovernorJanuary 2005


Draft Workshop Schedule

Inventory TodayMay 2003

Technology Assessment March 11-13, 2003August 2003

Environmental,Economic and SocialImpacts

July 2003August 2003 (EJ)

Standard Development &Compliance Mechanisms

July 2003

Interim Summary October 2003

Draft Staff Report June 2004


Purpose of this Workshop

Describe methodologies used to develop GCC emissions inventory

Present draft inventory based on assumptions and methodologies used

Provide information on comparison with other data sources

Solicit input


Issues to be Addressed Later

Inventory support for compliance mechanisms– Manufacturer compliance– Early credits– Alternative strategies


Framework for the Global Climate Change Emissions

Inventory

What’s Included?


Identified GCC Pollutants

Methane (CH4)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Nitrous Oxide (N2O)


Other GCC Pollutants under Consideration

Black Carbon Criteria Pollutants

– ROG and NOx as precursors to Ozone

– CO, PM10, SOx


Global Warming Potential (GWP)

Global warming comparison of different greenhouse gases relative to CO2

Time-integrated radiative forcing of 1 kg of the gas relative to 1 kg of CO2

High uncertainty associated with GWP estimates


Global Warming Potential Gas

20 years 100 years

Carbon Dioxide 1 1

Methane 62 23

Nitrous Oxide 275 296

HFC-134a 3300 1300

GWP from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Third Assessment Report


Global Warming Potential of Shorter Lived Gases and Aerosols

• Uncertain how to quantify their global radiative forcingShort lived gases (CO, O3, NOX, ROG)

and aerosols vary spatially and temporally

• IPCC does not attribute GWP values to gases that are short-lived and spatially inhomogeneous


Aerosols and Tropospheric Ozone Contribute to Global Warming

Source:James Hansen et al. 2000


Aerosols Affect Global Warming

Some aerosols reflect incoming radiation (global cooling)

Black carbon (soot) absorbs radiation (global warming) Enhanced

warming when mixed with other particles

Soot

Separate ParticlesMixed Particles

Sulfate


Emissions Sources

Light Duty On-Road Fleet– Passenger Cars– Light Duty Trucks up to 8500 lb. GVWR

Emissions in CY 2000 and CY 2010


MethodologiesUsed to Estimate Emissions

EMFAC Emissions Model N2O Emissions Studies Black Carbon Emissions Studies


EMFAC Model

Used to Estimate On-Road Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory

EMFAC 2002 version 2.2 is latest release

Additional information available at

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/on-road/latest_version.htm


EMFAC Features 13 Vehicle Classes 45 Model Years within a Calendar Year Inventories for 1970 to 2040 Three Fuels (Gas / Diesel / Electric) Three Exhaust Processes

– Starts / Running / Idle

Four Evaporative Processes– Diurnal / Hot Soak / Running Loss / Resting Loss

7 Pollutants


Pollutants Included in EMFAC

HC / CO / NOx / PM / CO2 / LEAD / SOx HC can be expressed as

– TOG / ROG / CH4

PM can be expressed as– TOTAL PM / PM10 / PM2.5


How EMFAC Estimates Emissions

Process Rate (Emission Factor) *– Vehicle Test Projects

Number of Sources (Population) *– DMV Registration Data

Activity (Miles or Hours of Use) =– COGs - MPOs/ CALTRANS /BAR/Surveys

Inventory (Tons/Day)


Correction Factors Speed Temperature Fuel – RVP/Oxygenate/Sulfur Air Conditioning Soak Time Humidity Altitude


EMFAC ModelingIncludes the Impacts of

Deterioration: emission rates increase with accumulated VMT

I/M Program: periodic inspection and repair lower emission rates

Changes in vehicle population and VMT over time

Changes in emissions standards


Basis for Current N2O Inventory

~40 Vehicles Tested in El Monte Same Test Cycles as Criteria Pollutants N2O was Directly Measured Used Regression Analysis to Develop

Function to Relate N2O to NOx Applied Function to NOx Emissions

from EMFAC


Basis for Current Black Carbon Inventory

ARB and CRC Studies (1998)– Total of 50 light duty gas vehicles and 19 diesel

passenger vehicles We used these data to develop speciation profiles

that include organic and elemental carbon fractions Applied elemental carbon fractions to total PM from

EMFAC For global warming effect, we assume black

carbon is equivalent to elemental carbon


Comparative Analysis Compared ARB draft inventory with

CEC data Good agreement for CO2 and CH4, less

so for N2O Methodologies are different

– CEC disaggregates from national data– ARB data based on California specific fleet

We are continuing to evaluate CEC data and will also look at other data sets


Inventory for Identified GCC Emissions


CH4 Emissions(Tons per Day)

Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

2000 2010

Light Duty Fleet 74 39 (Up to 8500 lbs. GVWR)


CO2 Emissions(Tons per Day)


2000 2010

Light Duty Fleet 351,250 416,920 (Up to 8500 lbs. GVWR)


HFC-134a Emissions(Tons per Day)

Source: Insufficient data at this time

2000 2010

Light Duty Fleet n/a n/a (Up to 8500 lbs. GVWR)


N2O Emissions(Tons per Day)

Source: Vehicle Testing by ARB

2000 2010



CO2 Equivalencies

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

To

ns

per

Day

CH4 N2O

Calendar Year 2000 Emissions DataBased on 100 Year GWP

ActualCO2 Equivalent


Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants Under Consideration


Black Carbon Emissions(Tons per Day)(exhaust only)

Source: Derived from published studies and EMFAC PM data

2000 2010



ROG Emissions(Tons per Day)


2000 2010



NOx Emissions(Tons per Day)


2000 2010



CO Emissions(Tons per Day)


2000 2010

Light Duty Fleet 9,330 4,239 (Up to 8500 lbs. GVWR)


PM10 Emissions (Tons per Day)(exhaust only)


2000 2010



SOx Emissions(Tons per Day)


2000 2010



On-Going Research and Inventory Development

N2O HFCs Black Carbon


N2O Emissions


N2O EmissionsCurrent Database

N2O emissions inventory based on ~40 LD vehicles tested at the ARB HSL– The database does not include ‘forward-

looking’ technology vehicles

Additional N2O emissions data will be collected


N2O EmissionsNew Project

A new project is being initiated at the ARB’s Haagen-Smit Laboratory– Project team includes ARB staff and staff

from UCLA– Testing to be part of the 17th ARB Vehicle

Surveillance Project


N2O EmissionsNew Project (cont’d.)

N2O emissions to be characterized using a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy instrument

Size and composition of test fleet will expand existing data set


N2O EmissionsNew Project (cont’d.)

Project Schedule and Milestones– Project start date: December 2002– Data collection: Jan. 2003 - Sept. 2004– Data analysis: ongoing throughout the

project to support AB 1493 milestones– Data for AB 1493 available in Spring 2004


HFC Emissions


HFC Emissions Sources

Two sources of HFC emissions have been identified:– Vehicle A/C system HFC emissions

HFC emissions emitted from the vehicle’s A/C system

– Servicing and disposal HFC emissions Emissions occur when a vehicle’s A/C is

disturbed for servicing or at the end of the vehicle’s useful life (disposal emissions)


HFC Emissions from Mobile Air Conditioners

Available vehicle HFC emissions data– “R-134a Emissions from Vehicles” ES&T

paper by Siegl, et al (2002)– Two-day static SHED test of 28 light-duty

gasoline vehicles HFC emissions exhibited large standard

deviation No measurements of servicing or disposal HFC

emissions


HFC Emissions from Mobile Air Conditioners (cont’d.)

Estimating HFC emissions from survey data– Mobile Air Conditioning Society (MACS)

Survey - service garage survey– Oko-Recharche Survey - service garage

survey


Forthcoming Research

In October 2000 EU environment ministers directed EC to investigate MAC GCC emissions– “study and prepare measures to reduce all

GCC emissions from air conditioning in vehicles”

Develop legislative proposals to reduce MAC GCC emissions


Forthcoming Research (cont’d.)

Research results and preliminary proposals to be presented at upcoming international conference– MAC Summit in Brussels in February 2003 – The need for additional testing will be

evaluated after the MAC Summit


Black CarbonEmissions


Black Carbon (BC) Emission Sources in California

Primary sources – On-road and off-road diesel – Gasoline vehicles – Residential combustion– Biomass Burning


LDV BC Emissions Previous Studies

– Caldecott Tunnel, Dr. Harley 1996

– CE-CERT, Dr. Norbeck 10 Gas LDV (MY 1979-1994) BC emission

40 Gas LDV and 19 Diesel Passenger Vehicles

– Caltech - Dr. Cass 1996

– UC Davis, Dr. Kleeman 2002 35 LDV (included MY 1999-2002)

BC emissions rates available in 2003


BC Emission Inventory Development

Motor vehicle BC emission estimates– Review of existing data

Compile existing MV- PM emissions data Compile emission factors and PM speciation

factors used to develop BC inventories

– Estimate PM Emissions Estimate fuel-specific (i.e., gasoline and diesel)

motor vehicle emissions for climate forcing PM pollutants


Radiative Forcing Effect of BC

Caltech Research Project– Calculate Radiative ForcingApply a global climate model to estimate

the relative climate forcing of CO2, BC, SO4

=, NO3-, and OC emissions from

different motor vehicle fleets on both short and long timescales


BC Emission Inventory Development

Project Schedule and Milestones– Project start date: March 2003– Review existing data and estimate PM

emissions: July 2003– Calculate Radiative Forcing: Jan 2004– Data for AB 1493 available in Spring 2004


In Summary


Where Are We Headed?

Incorporate additional research data into inventory

Compare with other databases

Next inventory workshop in May 2003

Final inventory in October 2003


AB 1493 List Serve

Provides subscribers with automatic email notification– Notice of workshops and meetings– Posting of documents on ARB website

To subscribe: go to ARB climate change website (www.arb.ca.gov/gcc/gcc.htm) and follow prompts


Internet Resources Air Resources Board

– www.arb.ca.gov/gcc/gcc.htm California Energy Commission

– www.energy.ca.gov/global_climate_change/index.html California Climate Change Registry

– www.climateregistry.org U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

– www.epa.gov/globalwarming/index.html Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

– www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp

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Additional Questions, Comments, and Discussion

California Air Resources Board


Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory

Workshop

1 global climate change emissions inventory to support ab 1493 workshop december 3, 2002 air...

Documents

california air resources

board hearing slide

board updatenovember

background slide

california reductions

input slide

discussion slide

air contaminants