1 forecast for 2011-12 winter george h. taylor, ccm october, 2011
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Forecast for 2011-12 WinterForecast for 2011-12 Winter
George H. Taylor, CCM
October, 2011
22
Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions
33
44
Long-term Trends inLong-term Trends inTropical Pacific IndicatorsTropical Pacific Indicators
55
66
77
88
99
In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and 2008.
In terms of MEI, the best matches were 1967,1989, 1996, 1999 and 2008.
Overall the best match was 2008.
Analog Matches
1010
1111
1212
1313
1414
There’s no sunshine in the skies There’s no sunshine in the skies todaytoday
It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of Maymonth of May
I guess you say, why do I get wet I guess you say, why do I get wet today?today?
La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!
There’ll be soooo much snow in There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this yearthe mountains this year
And lowland flooding, baby, is And lowland flooding, baby, is something to fearsomething to fear
I guess you say, why is there a I guess you say, why is there a flood today?flood today?
La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!
It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LAdown in LA
Drought in Arizona, and all along Drought in Arizona, and all along the Southern Waythe Southern Way
I guess you say, why is it so dry I guess you say, why is it so dry today?today?
La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!La Niña!
Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….There’s no sunshine in the skies There’s no sunshine in the skies
today, it’s La Niña,today, it’s La Niña,It might even flood today, La NiñaIt might even flood today, La NiñaTalkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ Talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’
‘bout La Niña‘bout La Niña
1919
Bottom LineBottom Line
• Rather benign early season, with very active December - February
• Above-average mountain snowfall for the winter; average ski season opening date
• Significant precipitation totals with possibility of flooding
• Cooler than average temperatures
• Slightly below average precipitation
• Good chance of low elevation snow (esp. January)
2020
In a nutshell:In a nutshell:
A slow start but making up for lost time!