1 energy to power the world: ii fossil fuel (continued) how it’s used, who uses it how long...
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Energy to Power the World: II
Fossil Fuel (continued)How it’s used, who uses itHow long will it last?
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Today’s oil is yesterday’s plankton Small marine and lake organisms live in
surface waters They die, fall to the bottom and get buried into
an organic rich sedimentary layer If geologic processes heat and squeeze
these rocks sufficiently, they will create crude oil and natural gas from the fossils
Crude oil and natural gas will migrate toward the surface
Geologic traps must exist to create an oil field
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Examples of geologic traps
“pumping oil out is like sucking liquid out of a sponge”
Folded impermeable rock Faulted impermeable rock
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Oil floats on water!
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Similar toCS Fig. 19.11
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What it has taken the Earth millions of years to form, we will use up in <1,000 years
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That pesky second law of thermodynamics! 1/2 of all the energy in
primary fuels is lost during conversion to useable forms
2/3 of energy in coal is lost in power plant conversion to electricity
3/4 of energy in crude oil is lost by the time you finish burning it as gas in your car
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One gallon of gasoline Contains ~6 pounds of C
When it burns, the C combines with O to make ~ 20 pounds of CO2
Took about 196,000 pounds of ancient biomass to make About the same as in 1 acre of wheat Since 1751, our species has used the equivalent
from all types of fossil fuels of about 13,300 years of biomass production by all plants on earth.
Source: http://www.greenuniversity.net/Green_Economics/carbondioxide.htm
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Figure 19_02
CS Fig. 19.2
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Table 19_01
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Table 19_02
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Global energy sources
CS Fig. 19.3
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US energy consumption 2010
CS Fig. 19.4
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161660% of oil imported
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US Energy Flow 2003
66% of oil imported
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US Oil supply61.2%
importedMiddle
East oil 3rd
Canadian oil from tar sands
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US Oil imports
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U.S. Is Producing More and Using Less Oil
Analysts also point out that the U.S. is producing more oil domestically while reducing its dependence on oil in general. The recent recession and the slow economic recovery have
dampened demand for oil products. But "the big story is that the U.S. has really expanded production over the past several years," says Crane, citing the production of oil from shale in North Dakota and other states.
The country has also become more energy efficient, building cars with better gas mileage and shifting away from oil-based energy.
"Whereas the U.S. has been the biggest consumer of oil products in the world, the role of oil is smaller than it was in the '70s, and even than it was in the '90s," Crane says.
But the U.S. still spends huge sums on oil because the rise in world prices has more than made up for the drop in U.S. imports. "Five years ago, we were importing 10 million barrels a day, but at
$50 a barrel," says Rapier. "Now we're at 8.4 million barrels, but at prices over $100 a barrel."
Source: National Public Radio
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Demographics of Energy Use The 20 richest countries consume
80% of natural gas 65% of oil 50% of coal
US and Canada have 5% of world population, use 25% of available energy Each person in US and Canada uses 60 barrels of
oil per year – more than an Ethiopian would use in a lifetime
Developed countries that import a large proportion of their fuel have better conservation methods
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HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?
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Proven OilReserves
CS Fig 19.13
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CS Fig. 19.16
The End of Cheap Oil
Campbell and LaherrereScientific American, 1998On Reserve in Library (Preventing the next oil crunch)
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Early steady growth in US oil production
C & L, p. 78
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What oil companies would have you believe
1,020 billion barrels of oil in reserve that will be just as cheap as it is today (that is, as it was in 1998)
Production can continue at 1998 levels or higher for many decades to come
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What Campbell and Laherrere would have you believe
Production will not remain constant for very long
The last bucket of oil is not as easy to remove as the first
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Hubbert Curve Flow of oil starts to
fall when ~1/2 of crude oil is gone
In 1956, M. King Hubbert of Shell Oil used this curve to successfully predict US peak in production in 1970 C & L, p. 80
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Global discovery peaked in 1960
Industry has found 90% of oil that exists
C & L, p. 82
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All US Oil fields
Finite Resource!
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All US Oil fields
Slope of curve in Previous figure
Data Hubbert hadavailable
Data after Hubbert’sprediction
Price
Wellsdrilled
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Expenses in US oil exploration
Return on investment
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How long will it last?
Perhaps more importantly, when will it become expensive?!
C & L, p. 81
Similar to Fig. 19.12
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World Oil Production, real and projected as of 2004
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
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Major conclusionsUS oil production peaked in 1970Norway has already peakedWorld production will peak this decade!By 2002, Mid-East will have control over
major part of supply
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Oil will get (stay) expensive! 1,150 billion barrels left* At current rate, 30 billion barrels/year*, will
last ~40 years However, will start to decline in production
within 5 years, so will last longer, but at reduced level
Oil shales and tar sands may help ease pain, but will have environmental consequences http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/0
3/canadian-oil-sands/essick-photography
*Statistics from US Dept of Energy
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Oil Drum.com (Bloomberg) -- Boone Pickens, a billionaire energy
investor, said world oil supply won't exceed 85 million barrels a day because of high depletion rates of existing wells. Pickens, 79, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said today in a speech at Georgetown University, that the price of crude oil will only continue to climb and demand will eventually be dampened.
``There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said. April 2008
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World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010, and 2025
77.1
91.5
120.8
77.0
91.1
120.6
2001 2010 2025 2001 2010 20250.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Mill
ion
Bar
rel s
per
Day
Industrialized
Developing Asia
Other
Consumption Production
OPEC
EE/FSUOther
US DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2005
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"The fundamental driver of the 20th Century's economic prosperity has been an abundant supply of cheap oil.... Middle East share ... is now about 30%. Unlike in the 1970s, this time it is set to continue to rise.... Share will likely reach 35% by 2002 and 50% by 2009. By then, the Middle East too will be close to its depletion midpoint, and unable to sustain production much longer irrespective of investment or desire."
C. J. CampbellOil and Gas Journal, March 20, 2000
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The USGS estimates thateconomically recoverable oil is just 152 days of supply
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ANWAR
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US Oil “Drill Baby Drill”?120 billion barrels of oil left in US, but
only 21 are proven in-place This would last 4 years!
The End
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