1 concurrent session: risk transfer (fas 113) presentation by michael g. wacek casualty loss reserve...

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Concurrent Session:Concurrent Session:Risk Transfer (FAS 113)Risk Transfer (FAS 113)

Presentation by Michael G. Wacek

Casualty Loss Reserve SeminarSeptember 12, 2005

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Risk Transfer Testing of Reinsurance Contracts:Risk Transfer Testing of Reinsurance Contracts:Analysis and RecommendationsAnalysis and Recommendations

CAS Research Working Party on Risk Transfer CAS Research Working Party on Risk Transfer TestingTesting

Michael Wacek, Chairman (Odyssey Re)John Aquino (Benfield)Todd Bault (Sanford Bernstein)Paul Brehm (Guy Carpenter)Beth Hansen (Guy Carpenter)Pierre Laurin (Zurich)Mark Littmann (PricewaterhouseCoopers)Karen Pachyn (GE Insurance Solutions)Debbie Rosenberg (NY State Insurance Department)David Ruhm (Hartford)Mark van Zanden (Catlin)

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ContextContext

CAS Leadership sought to ensure constructive input to AAA, which is engaged in dialogue with NAIC & others on risk transfer issue

Working party formed in June 2005 in anticipation of a call from AAA (COPLFR) for ideas on defining/testing risk transfer in reinsurance contracts

AAA issued call for ideas June 13 with July 15 deadline

Working party produced and submitted draft white paper to COPLFR on July 15, final paper on July 21

Support from Reinsurance Committee and CAS Staff

White paper posted on CAS website on August 1

Possibly a new speed record for a CAS working party!

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DisclaimerDisclaimer

Paper is intended as educational document

Not official position of the CAS

While read by subcommittee of Reinsurance Research Committee before release, not formally peer reviewed by CORP

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COPLFR Call for IdeasCOPLFR Call for Ideas

1. What is an effective test for risk transfer?

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2. What criteria should be used to determine whether a reinsurance contract transfers significant risk to the reinsurer?

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3. What safe harbors, if any, should be established so that a full risk transfer analysis does not have to be completed for each and every reinsurance contract (i.e., in what instances is risk transfer “reasonably self-evident” and therefore cash flow testing is not necessary to demonstrate risk transfer)?

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4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the suggested approach versus other approaches commonly used?

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Structure of PaperStructure of Paper

1. Introduction

2. Determining Whether the Contract Transfers “Substantially All” Underlying Insurance Risk

3. “Significant Risk” and the “10-10” Test

4. Toward a Better Test

5. Illustration of the ERD Test

6. Identification of Contracts Subject to “Significant” Risk Requirement that do not Require Individual Testing

7. Possible Evolution of Risk Transfer Measurement

8. Summary

9. Suggested Priorities for Further Research

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Section 1: IntroductionSection 1: Introduction

Context

Disclaimers

Background on FAS 113 / SSAP 62

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Background on FAS 113Background on FAS 113

Implemented 1993

SSAP 62 risk transfer provisions largely same as FAS 113

Effectively, SSAP 62 = FAS 113

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FAS 113 Risk Transfer RequirementFAS 113 Risk Transfer Requirement

One of 2 conditions must be met:

1. Reinsurer has assumed “substantially all” of the underlying reinsurance risk (Paragraph 11), or

2. Reinsurer has assumed “significant” insurance risk and it must be “reasonably possible” that the reinsurer may realize a “significant” loss from the transaction. (Paragraph 9)

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FAS 113 Risk Transfer Testing Flow ChartFAS 113 Risk Transfer Testing Flow Chart

Measure InsuranceRisk Transferred

By Contract

SubstantiallyAll?

Significant?

Book Contractas Reinsurance

No

No

Yes

Yes

Book Contractas Deposit

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Not a Critique of FAS 113Not a Critique of FAS 113

Working party agreed to treat FAS 113 as reasonable framework

Subject to fair interpretation of “substantially all”, “reasonably possible” and “significant”

Despite reservations about 1) focus only on reinsurer, and 2) definition of reinsurer loss

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Section 2: Determining Whether the Contract Section 2: Determining Whether the Contract Transfers “Substantially All” Underlying Transfers “Substantially All” Underlying

Insurance RiskInsurance Risk

Relevant risk is “downside risk”

If downside risk assumed by reinsurer is “same” as cedent’s downside risk on unreinsured portfolio, then contract transfers “substantially all” the insurance risk

Trivial case is prorata contract with flat ceding commission = cedent expense ratio and no cap, corridor, slides, PC

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Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside RiskRisk

Two Methods Presented:

Compare cedent and reinsurer U/W margins in U/W loss scenarios

Compare cedent and reinsurer expected U/W deficits

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Example 2.1Example 2.1

First dollar non-standard auto quota share

Ceding Commission: Minimum – 19.5% @ 73% L/R

1 : 1 slide

30% @ 62.5% L/R

.75 : 1 slide

Maximum – 39% @ 50.5% L/R

Cedent expense ratio = 20%

Cedent U/W breakeven = 80%

Reinsurer FAS 113 breakeven = 80.5%

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Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside Risk-Method 1Risk-Method 1

CHART 1Cedent and Reinsurer Margins

Example 2.1

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

30% 50% 70% 90% 110%

Original Loss Ratio

Pro

fit M

argi

n %

Cedent Margin

Reinsurer Margin

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Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside Comparing Cedent and Reinsurer Downside Risk-Method 2Risk-Method 2

Table 2“Substantially All” Risk Transfer Analysis – Method 2

Reinsurer vs. Cedent margins in Downside Scenarios Example 2.1

Breakeven Loss Ratio Freq(UL) Sev(UL) EUD

Cedent 80.0% 11.3% 8.3%

0.940%

Reinsurer 80.5% 10.5% 8.5% 0.886%

Difference -0.5% 0.8% -0.2% 0.054%

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Example 2.1Example 2.1

“Substantially All” < “All”

Reinsurer downside risk only slightly less than cedent’s

“Substantially All” condition met (both methods)

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Straightforward for prorata

Potentially applicable to excess, too

Other scenarios

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Section 3: “Significant” Risk Transfer and Section 3: “Significant” Risk Transfer and the “10-10” Testthe “10-10” Test

“10% chance of 10% loss” (“10-10” test) common benchmark for significance testing

Present value U/W result at 90th percentile is a loss ≥ 10% of p.v. premiums

VaR90% ≥ 10%

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Problems with “10-10”Problems with “10-10”

Not sufficiently discriminating

Some say “10-10” not stringent enough

Some traditional reinsurance contracts do not “pass”:o Low freq/high severity (typically XL)o High freq/low severity (typically QS)

Unintended consequences for reinsurance pricing

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““10-10” Cat Example 3.110-10” Cat Example 3.1

U/W result at 90th percentile is 10% profit

Contract “fails”

In practice, since everyone sees cat xl as risky, test failure typically ignored

Ad hoc exception for “cat” problematical – how much “cat” is enough to qualify?

TABLE 3Catastrophe Loss Distribution for Example 3.1

Cat Loss as

% of Limit

Cat Loss as % of

Premiums

Probability of Given

Loss

0% 0% 67%

5% 50% 20%

10% 100% 10%

100% 1000% 3%

5% 50% 100%

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““10-10” Quota Share Example 3.210-10” Quota Share Example 3.2

TABLE 4

On-Level Loss Ratio Experience

For Quota Share in Example 3.2

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Accident Year

Reported L/ R

Age to Ult Factors

Est Ult L/ R

Prem On-Level Factors

Loss On-Level Factors

On-Level L/ R

ix ln ix

1

92.8%

1.039

96.4%

1.963

1.364 67.0% -0.401

2 75.6% 1.048 79.3% 1.737 1.307 59.7% -0.516

3 77.0% 1.095 84.3% 1.376 1.246 76.4% -0.269

4 61.2% 1.141 69.9% 1.139 1.181 72.5% -0.321

5 52.5% 1.415 74.3% 1.061 1.111 77.8% -0.251

Mean x 70.7% -0.352

Var* 2s 0.554% 1.18%

*Unbiased St. Dev.* s 7.45% 10.88%

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Pitfalls of fitting a distribution to on-level loss ratios

Adjustments to historical loss ratios often have smoothing effect

Importance of parameter uncertainty

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““10-10” Quota Share Example 3.210-10” Quota Share Example 3.2Sources of Parameter Uncertainty in On-Level Loss Sources of Parameter Uncertainty in On-Level Loss

Ratio EstimatesRatio Estimates

The ultimate loss estimates might be wrong;

The rate level history might be inaccurate;

The prospective rate changes assumptions might be wrong;

The historical claim trend estimates might be inaccurate;

The prospective claim trend assumptions might be wrong;

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““10-10” Quota Share Example 3.210-10” Quota Share Example 3.2More More Sources of Parameter Uncertainty in On-Level Sources of Parameter Uncertainty in On-Level

Loss Ratio EstimatesLoss Ratio Estimates

The prospective loss ratios might not be distributed according to chosen model (e.g. lognormal)

The distribution assumption (e.g. lognormal) is right, but the “best fit” parameters might not be the true parameters

Cash flow timing assumptions, particularly regarding claims, might be wrong

The prospective exposure mix might be different from expected

For multi-year reinsurance contracts, the level of parameter uncertainty from all sources increases as the length of the coverage period increases

Other

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Fitted distribution (ignoring parameter uncertainty) yields VaR90% = 2% => contract “fails”

Adjusted distribution (for parameter uncertainty – judgmental) yields VaR90% = 6% => contract still “fails”

Does not seem like right result

Problem is with “10-10”

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““10-10” Quota Share Example 3.310-10” Quota Share Example 3.3 A quota share of a portfolio with expected volatility of S&P

500 (given by σ = VIX) would frequently “fail” the “10-10” test

Quota share with expected L/R = 70%, commission = 25%, one year claim lag, requires σ ≥ 21% to yield VaR90 ≥ 10%

Chart of historical expected S&P 500 volatility (VIX)

CHART 3

Source: Yahoo! Finance

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Unless intention is to set the bar for significant risk at a level higher than the typical volatility of the S&P 500, the “10-10” test defines too high a threshold

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““10-10” Unintended Consequences for 10-10” Unintended Consequences for Reinsurance PricingReinsurance Pricing

Implies unrealistic price controls on reinsurers, especially for low volatility business

Excerpt from Table 6 shows minimum permissible loss ratios for contracts without commissions, interest @ 5%

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““10-10” Unintended Consequence for 10-10” Unintended Consequence for Reinsurance PricingReinsurance Pricing

TABLE 6

Minimum Permissible Loss RatioImplied by “10-10”

Contracts with No Ceding CommissionInterest at 5% per annum

By σ and Claim Lag

σ No Lag 1 Yr Lag 2 Yr Lag 3 Yr Lag

10.0% 97.3% 102.1% 107.2% 112.6%

12.0% 95.0% 99.8% 104.7% 110.0%

15.0% 91.8% 96.4% 101.2% 106.3%

20.0% 86.8% 91.2% 95.8% 100.5%

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Section 4: Toward a Better TestSection 4: Toward a Better Test

Two Major Shortcomings of “10-10”

Its focus on loss only at 90th percentile ignores information in the tail

o It would be better to take account of loss potential in right tail, which can be extreme (e.g. cat XL)

Its requirement that both probability and loss exceed 10% is arbitrary

o Why 10%?

o Why not “5-20”, “20-5”, etc.?

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Toward a Better TestToward a Better TestAddressing the First ShortcomingAddressing the First Shortcoming

Replace VaR90% with TVaR90%

TVaR90% = mean severity losses at and beyond 90th percentile

Idea suggested in VFIC’s 2000 paper

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Toward a Better TestToward a Better TestAddressing the Second ShortcomingAddressing the Second Shortcoming

Relax requirement that BOTH probability and severity of loss > 10%

Note that expected reinsurer deficit (ERD) = Freq(loss) x Sev(loss)

o Freq(loss) = Prob (p.v. loss > 0)o Sev(loss) = E(p.v. loss | p.v. loss > 0) = TVaR at breakeven

ERD reflects frequency and severity in a single measure

Define “significant” risk as ERD = Freq(loss) x Sev(loss) > A

We illustrate A = 1%

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Toward a Better TestToward a Better Test

ERD ≥ A is a variable TVaR standard:

Sev (loss) = TVaR1-Freq ≥ A Freq (loss)

ERD > A defines a “risk transfer frontier” that encompasses a wide variety of frequency – severity combinations

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CHART 6 Risk Transfer Frontier: ERD > 1% vs. Various TVaR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Frequency

Sev

erit

y

ERD

TVaR 10-10

TvaR 5-20

TVaR 20-5

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To address the issue of contracts that have been engineered

to remove most or all of the potential for loss in the right tail,

the paper suggests consideration of a supplemental

requirement that there be the potential for a reinsurer loss of

some minimum threshold, say, 15% or 20% of premiums.

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FAS 113 Risk Transfer Testing Flow Chart FAS 113 Risk Transfer Testing Flow Chart (Expanded)(Expanded)Measure InsuranceRisk Transferred

By Contract

SubstantiallyAll?

ERD > 1%?

Book Contractas Reinsurance

No

Yes

Yes

Book Contractas Deposit

MeasureSignificance

Downside> x?

No

Yes

No

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Section 5: Illustration of the Section 5: Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test(A = 1%)(A = 1%)

Cat XL example 3.1 now passes

Any Cat XL with rate on line < 50% passes

Primary QS example 3.2 now passes

Primary QS example 3.3 (S&P 500 volatility) passes more often

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Illustration of the Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test >> 1% Test 1% TestExpected Loss Ratio = 70% (Lognormal) with Expected Loss Ratio = 70% (Lognormal) with

Loss CorridorLoss Corridor

TABLE 9ERD Risk Transfer Analysis for

ContractWith 25% Ceding Commission and

Loss Ratio Corridor from 75% to 80%

σ Freq Sev ERD

10% 3.1% 3.2% 0.10%

15% 9.1% 6.0% 0.59%

20% 15.6% 9.2% 1.43%

25% 19.7% 12.6% 2.47%

30% 22.4% 16.2% 3.63%

40% 25.6% 23.9% 6.13%

50% 26.9% 32.4% 8.74%

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Illustration of the Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test >> 1% Test 1% TestExpected Loss Ratio = 70% (Lognormal) with Expected Loss Ratio = 70% (Lognormal) with

Loss CapLoss Cap

TABLE 10ERD Risk Transfer Analysis for

ContractWith 25% Ceding Commission and

Loss Ratio Cap of 95%

σ Freq Sev ERD

10% 11.0% 3.8% 0.41%

15% 19.5% 6.5% 1.27%

20% 24.5% 8.9% 2.18%

25% 27.6% 10.7% 2.94%

30% 29.4% 12.0% 3.53%

40% 31.1% 13.8% 4.29%

50% 31.4% 14.9% 4.69%

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Illustration of the Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test >> 1% Test 1% TestExcess Swing Plan ExampleExcess Swing Plan Example

CHART 7Excess Swing Plan Example

Claim Distribution

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Claim Count

Pro

b

CHART 8 Excess Swing Plan Example

Premium Rate by Claim Count

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Claim Count

Pre

m R

ate

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Illustration of the Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test >> 1% Test 1% TestExcess Swing Plan ExampleExcess Swing Plan Example

TABLE 11ERD Risk Transfer Analysis

Swing-Rated vs. Flat-Rated Excess

Plan Rate Freq Sev ERD

Swing 9.71% 3.2% 30.4% 0.97%

Flat 11.43% 18.0% 26.2% 4.70%

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Illustration of the Illustration of the ERDERD Test Test >> 1% Test 1% TestIndividual Risks (Total Loss Analysis)Individual Risks (Total Loss Analysis)

TABLE 12

ERD / Max Downside For Individual Risk Contracts

By Rate on Line

Rate on Line

Limit Loss Prob

ERD

Reinsurer Max

Downside

0.5% 0.05% 9.95% 19900% 1.0% 0.10% 9.90% 9900% 2.5% 0.25% 9.75% 3900% 5.0% 0.50% 9.50% 1900% 10.0% 1.00% 9.00% 900% 25.0% 2.50% 7.50% 300% 50.0% 5.00% 5.00% 100% 75.0% 7.50% 2.50% 33% 83.3% 8.33% 1.67% 20% Assumptions. - Investment income effects ignored - Bernoulli probability of limit loss - Total limit loss ratio 10%

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Section 6: Identification of Contracts Subject Section 6: Identification of Contracts Subject to Significant Risk Requirement that Do Not to Significant Risk Requirement that Do Not

Require Individual TestingRequire Individual Testing

Individual testing of every contract would be burdensome (and unnecessary)

Paper shows that several groups of contracts will pass ERD ≥ 1% under very general conditions

o Individual risks

o Most cat XL contracts

o Most other XL contracts

o Contracts with expected L/R > minimum permissible loss ratio

o Contracts with immaterial premiums

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Section 7: Possible Evolution of Risk Transfer Section 7: Possible Evolution of Risk Transfer MeasurementMeasurement

Right Tail Deviation (RTD) framework (Wang)

Same framework for risk transfer testing and risk loading

Like ERD framework, Cat XL passes significance test

Method can address some highly structured contract scenarios

Most complex, less understandable to non-actuaries

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Section 8: SummarySection 8: SummaryResponse to COPLFR Question 1Response to COPLFR Question 1


Transfer of “Substantially All” Risk

o Comparison of cedent/reinsurer underwriting downside scenarios

o Comparison of cedent/reinsurer EUDs

Transfer of “Significant” Risk

o ERD Test

o RTD Test

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ERD ≥ A (illustrated with A = 1%)

Possible supplemental requirement for minimum downside potential (perhaps 15% - 20%)

Alternatively, RTD framework Qualified Premium / Premium ≥ 100%

Other reasonable approaches

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Contracts meeting “substantially all” risk conditions don’t need to be tested for “significant” risk

Groups of contracts can be “pre-qualified” as containing significant risk on the basis of ERD ≥ 1 (examples):

o Individual risk contractso Short tail XL treaties in standard cat formato Other XL treaties with aggregate limits ≥ 1 occ/risk limit or

200% of premiums (whichever is greater)*o Treaties having expected loss ratio ≥ minimum permissible

loss ratio implied by ERD ≥ 1%o Contracts involving immaterial premiums

* No commission, ROL ≤ 500%

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4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the suggested approach versus other approaches commonly used?

At practical level, “10-10” is inadequate because it fails individual risk contracts, cat XL treaties, some primary QS treaties

At more conceptual level, “10-10” fails to account for risk in the tail, is arbitrary in requiring both 10% chance and 10% loss, frequently classifies S&P 500 as not significantly risky

At same time “10-10” reviewed by some as not stringent enough

ERD ≥ 1% with supplemental minimum downside potential requirement addresses all “10-10” shortcomings

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Section 9: Suggested Priorities for Further Section 9: Suggested Priorities for Further ResearchResearch

Consensus on Thresholds

° Difference between “all” and “substantially all”

° ERD ≥ A: What value of A is appropriate? Is 1% OK?

° Determination of contract categories that do not require individual testing because significance of risk can be demonstrated in advance.

Other

° Other methods for testing “substantially all” risk transfer

° Continued research on methods other than ERD (e.g., Wang’s RTD)

° Continued research on methods for dealing with parameter uncertainty

1 concurrent session: risk transfer (fas 113) presentation by michael g. wacek casualty loss reserve...

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