1. climate is not the only change
TRANSCRIPT
1. Climate is not the only change
2. Plan for uncertainty –build resilience
3. Rain-fed agriculture matters3. Rain-fed agriculture matters
4. Look after the fish
5. Manage the landscape, not only the field
Photo credits: Chu Thai Hoanh, David Fredericks
Climate is not the only change
fed agriculture mattersfed agriculture matters
Manage the landscape, not only
Greater
Mekong Mekong
Subregion
Mega-deltas Coasts Plains and plateausPlains and plateaus
Uplands – forested
vs intensively used
25% more people by 2050
>25% more food
25% more people by 2050
>25% more food
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bangkok_skyline.jpg
Rubber imports to China
Global trade
and investment
Agriculture for DevelopmentAgriculture for Development
“GDP growth in
agriculture benefits the
poorest half of the
population substantially population substantially
more”
World Bank 2008
26
27
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29
De
gre
e c
elc
ius Average temperature in the lower Mekong
(mean of A2 and B2 scenarios)
Temperatures are rising
24
25
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
De
gre
e c
elc
ius Average temperature in the lower Mekong
(mean of A2 and B2 scenarios)
Temperatures are rising
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Chaiyaphum
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.751
96
0
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Kalasin
Stationarity 99%
Stationarity 99%
Rainfall variable, but no trend
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Kompong Thom
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Pursat
Scenario A
-0.75
Stationarity 99%
Stationarity 99%
Stationarity 99%
Percentage deviation of annual rainfall from long
Stationarity 95%
Stationarity 99%
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Chiang Khong
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Mukdahan
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Xiengkhouang
Stationarity 99%
#
#
Rainfall variable, but no trend
Stationarity 95%
Stationarity 99%
-0.75
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Pakse
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Pleiku
Scenario A2 Scenario B2
#
#
##
#
#
#
Stationarity 95%
Percentage deviation of annual rainfall from long-term average
Sea level rise
1960 – 2010: ~20 cm
2010 – 2050: ~30 cm2010 – 2050: ~30 cm
By 2100: >1 metre
< 5 m ASL
Water management is more than irrigationWater management is more than irrigation
ClayClay
+ compost
Current recommended
practice
Proposed Don Sahong
dam at Khone Falls
Spawning
Feeding
Eggs, larvae,
juveniles, adults
Adults
Fish and dams
60-90 % of migrating fish must pass upstream to maintain viable populations
We were unable to find We were unable to find evidence in the literature to suggest that the necessary rates of upstream passage success to sustain even the small species # have been achieved elsewhere
Halls and Kshatriya (2009)
1. Climate is not the only change
2. Plan for uncertainty –build resilience
3. Rain-fed agriculture matters3. Rain-fed agriculture matters
4. Look after the fish
5. Manage the landscape, not only the field
Photo credits: Chu Thai Hoanh, David Fredericks
Climate is not the only change
fed agriculture mattersfed agriculture matters
Manage the landscape, not only