1 actuarial society 2016 convention 23 24 november 2016 · 15 actuarial society 2016 convention 23...
TRANSCRIPT
1 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
2 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
3 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
http://deathclock.com/
4 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
How I might die as I age…
http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/19/how-you-will-die/
5 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
6 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
http://deathclock.com/
7 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
The 25 Most Likely Ways You Will
Die…
1. Chuck Norris (disclaimer!)
2. Heart disease (1 in 5)
3. Cancer (1 in 7)
4. Stroke (1 in 23)
5. Accidental Injury (1 in 36)
6. Motor Vehicle Accident (1-in-100)
7. Intentional Self-harm (1-in-121)
8. Falling Down (1-in-246)
9. Assault by Firearm (1-in-325)
10. Fire or Smoke (1-in-1,116)
11. Natural Forces (1-in-3,357)
12. Bicycle Accident (1-in-4,717)
13. Electrocution (1-in-5,000)
14. Drowning (1-in-8,942)http://list25.com/the-25-most-likely-ways-you-will-die/1/
15. Air Travel Accident (1-in-20,000)
16. Flood (1-in-30,000)
17. Legal Execution (1-in-58,618)
18. Tornado (1-in-60,000)
19. Lightning Strike (1-in-83,930)
20. Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or
Sting (1-in-100,000)
21. Earthquake (1 in 131,890)
22. Dog Attack (1 in 147,717)
23. Asteroid Impact (1 in 500,000)
24. Tsunami (1 in 500,000)
25. Fireworks Discharge (1 in 615,488)
8 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Mortality from cardiovascular
diseases has
decreased significantly in most
countries over the last
20 years – further
improvements?
OECD (2013), “Mortality from cardiovascular diseases”, in Health at a Glance 2013: OECD
Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-7-en
Ischemic heart disease
9 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Mortality from cardiovascular
diseases has
decreased significantly in most
countries over the last
20 years – further
improvements?
OECD (2013), “Mortality from cardiovascular diseases”, in Health at a Glance 2013: OECD
Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-7-en
Cerebrovascular disease
10 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
I’M GONNA LIVE FOREVER
Raymond Bennett
No way!
11 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Why do I think I am going to live
forever???
http://aging.healthyfoodscience.com/life-expectancy-history/
12 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Why do I think I am going to live
forever???
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-14/
13 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Why do I think I am going to live
forever???
14 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Why do I think I am going to live
forever???
15 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
The 25 Most Likely Ways You Will
Die…
1. Chuck Norris (disclaimer!)
2. Heart disease (1 in 5)
3. Cancer (1 in 7)
4. Stroke (1 in 23)
5. Accidental Injury (1 in 36)
6. Motor Vehicle Accident (1-in-100)
7. Intentional Self-harm (1-in-121)
8. Falling Down (1-in-246)
9. Assault by Firearm (1-in-325)
10. Fire or Smoke (1-in-1,116)
11. Natural Forces (1-in-3,357)
12. Bicycle Accident (1-in-4,717)
13. Electrocution (1-in-5,000)
14. Drowning (1-in-8,942)http://list25.com/the-25-most-likely-ways-you-will-die/1/
15. Air Travel Accident (1-in-20,000)
16. Flood (1-in-30,000)
17. Legal Execution (1-in-58,618)
18. Tornado (1-in-60,000)
19. Lightning Strike (1-in-83,930)
20. Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or
Sting (1-in-100,000)
21. Earthquake (1 in 131,890)
22. Dog Attack (1 in 147,717)
23. Asteroid Impact (1 in 500,000)
24. Tsunami (1 in 500,000)
25. Fireworks Discharge (1 in 615,488)
16 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Cancer: curable in our lifetime
with backing of US Government?
“For the loved ones we’ve all lost, for the family
we can still save, let’s make America the
country that cures cancer once and for all.”
President Obama, State of the Union address
on January 12th, 2016
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http://www.rosalindonline.com/
Cancer: analytic techniques used to customise
treatments to genetic profile of patients?
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Cancer: genetic treatments
“A man in China was injected with modified immune
cells which had been engineered to fight his lung cancer. Larger trials are scheduled to take place next
year in the US and Beijing, which scientists say could open up a new era of genetic medicine.”
“The technique used is called Crispr, which works like tiny molecular scissors snipping away genetic code and
replacing it with new instructions to build better cells.”
“Treating cancer is one of the uses but also potentially combating auto-immune type diseases including things like arthritis although a lot more work will be needed to
bring that to fruition.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/11/20/new-era-of-cut-and-paste-humans-close-as-man-injected-with-genet/
19 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
The Berlin patient… cured of HIV?
“To this date, Brown, no longer
on antiretroviral drugs, remains
the only person on Earth to have
been functionally cured of an
otherwise incurable disease.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/09/the-berlin-patient-and-the-mysterious-cure-for-hiv/380895/
20 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Virus killer?
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/49706.wss
“The short-term potential could be for applications such as an anti-viral wipe or detergent, which would require a small amount of the macromolecule dispersed in water to potentially neutralize an entire room infected with Ebola, for example. Potential longer-term
applications may include the development of a new mode of vaccination that could help prevent a whole category of viral infections.”
http://secondnexus.com/technology-and-innovation/molecule-could-destroy-all-viruses/?utm_content=inf_10_1164_2&tse_id=INF_23ef952f02c54a1ab7cfb2676f185388
21 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Spinal cord repair
http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2016/11/04/Zebrafish-offers-hope-for-spinal-cord-repair-US-study
"This is one of nature's most remarkable feats of regeneration," said the study's senior investigator Kenneth Poss, a professor of cell biology at Duke University.”
“When the severed spinal cord of the zebrafish undergoes regeneration, a bridge forms. Nerve cells follow and within eight weeks new nerve tissue has plugged the gap, allowing the fish to reverse their
paralysis completely, the Poss team reported.”
22 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Anti-aging research
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/04/the-year-we-decided-to-live-forever.html
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11553026
http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-claim-they-ve-completed-the-first-successful-gene-therapy-against-human-ageing
“Telomeres are the clock of aging, so the ability to add them
through activation of the telomerase gene could theoretically
push health spans beyond the maximum – or Hayflick limit –
which is about 120 years.”
Patrick Cox, Tech Digest, 25 April 2016
23 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
“Ira Pastor, chief executive of BioquarkInc said: ‘This represents the first trial of its kind and another step towards the eventual reversal of death in our lifetime. We hope to see results within the first two to three months.’”http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2016/05/04/Scientists-get-green-light-
to-raise-the-dead
24 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
http://coolmaterial.com/roundup/the-10-best-vehicles-to-survive-the-zombie-apocalypse/
25 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
• “Smallpox was a widespread cause of death in Europe in the eighteenth century
– some 400,000 people died annually…” Loc 666, “Progress: Ten Reasons to Look
Forward to the Future” by Johan Norberg
• “Smallpox was responsible for an estimated 300–500 million deaths during the 20th
century. As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that
15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox
Frivolous science fiction?
1980!
26 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Frivolous science fiction?
http://www.westonaprice.org/childrens-health/vaccinations-parents-informed-choice/
27 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Frivolous science fiction?
28 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Frivolous science fiction?
29 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
And if we need any more proof – older people
are already living longer, more active lives…
96-year-old Mountain Skier Alexander Rozental
72-year-old Club DJ Ruth Flowers h
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102-year-old Cyclist Robert Marchand
30 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
And if we need any more proof – older people
are already living longer, more active lives…
31 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
What could this mean for us?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8914212/Work-longer-and-boost-your-State-pension-by-2700-a-year.html
32 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
What could this mean for Life
Insurance?
Copyright 2016 http://www.tagxedo.com/
33 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
I’M GONNA LIVE FOREVER…
…will you live
forever? Will we
all live forever?
Do we want to
live forever?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82Qy1Dd9jdc
34 Actuarial Society 2016 Convention 23 – 24 November 2016
Further reading…
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/tech/subscribe
https://smile.amazon.com/Progres
s-Reasons-Look-Forward-Future/dp/1780749503/ref=sr_1_1?i
e=UTF8&qid=1479308145&sr=8-1&keywords=progress
“Ten fintech start-ups that are
causing a stir in insurance”:
https://www.ft.com/content/db83
3e5a-6eb1-11e6-a0c9-
1365ce54b926