1 6/5/2000 richard e. howard access to the global internet: which technology will win? evolution +3g...
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16/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?
• Evolution+ 3G builds on existing networks
+ Huge volumes
+ Global spectrum
– Separate network
– Optimized for voice
– Old technology
• Revolution+ IP networks
+ Optimized air interfaces
+ Design for converged traffic
+ New technology for low cost
– No global spectrum or approval
– No market momentum
– Timing?
For most of the world in 5 years (aside from North America and part of Europe):
Phone = Cell Phone
Internet = Wireless Internet
26/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Industry Directions for Networking
• Cellular Telecom Approach– Efforts to define wireless data networking standard (General Packet Radio
Service - GPRS) begin before full impact of Internet explosion is felt• Internet-Based Approach
– Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000)
GPRS standards begin
1990 1995 2000153M Internet
Users
1998
3M Internet Users
1994
1992
FPLMTS standards begin
1st GPRS customers
Microsoft & AT&T still competing with Internet
36/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data
Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard
Bell Labs, Lucent Technology
46/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet
Wireless Networks become the point of access that funnels end user experience into the Internet
Wireless Network
Internet
First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless
56/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision
Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)
Radio Hub
Cable, xDSL, V9010/100-BaseT
Wireless LAN
Bluetooth
Wireless PAN
Multimedia &MessagingServer
• integrated voice and data• video postcards• in-call image up/download
• codec converter• bandwidth manager• store & forward• playback
Content
GPRS/EDGE/TDMABaseStation
UMTS/CDMA2000BaseStation
IP Network
Wireless Backbone and Gateways
Location Services
66/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
UMTS
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8)EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8)UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136+
EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)
Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched VoicePacket-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
CDMA2000
PacketData
76/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Mobility Subscriber Projections: Analyst View
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200Ovum
Goldman Sachs
EMC
IDC
Herschel Shosteck
Merrill Lynch
Nokia Press Release
Ericsson Press Release
Lucent View
Ovum 283 363 433 500 562
Goldman Sachs 295 385 483
EMC 299 421 569 730 896 1049
IDC 257 325 396
Herschel Shosteck 298 405 519
Merrill Lynch 301 397 493 588 683 766 840 913
Nokia Press Release 10000
Ericsson Press Release 300 390 490 600 700 800
Lucent View 300.5 390.7 477.8 564.9 675.3 809.2 924.5 1041
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5/99 Est
5/99 Est EMC
1.3B by 2004
86/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ($ Millions)
Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3
Today’s IP Market
Today’s Voice Market9.4%=
Today’s Voice Market
Switched Telephony 462,763
Fax 64,775
Total 527,538
Today’s IP Market
Data Services 37,092
Internet Access 15,471
IP Telephony 1,890
IP VPN 419
Total 54,872W
ireless is much worse
96/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode
• Service offered: - Security trading (2 traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel - Concert tickets - News - Network game - Total of 1300 I-mode web sites
• Subscriber uptake: - Service Launch February 22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August - August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most popular
106/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year (and the Rate is Increasing)
~140,000 new subscribers/week
DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000
116/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Wonder Swan
•Hand-held Game Device•Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year•Email send and receive (SMTP)•Internet Access (mini-browser)•Remote download of mini-games
126/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market SegmentCost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)
High School Girls10 YEN P-Mail
Business ProfessionalValue Mail
CapabilitySpeed 64K
Wireless Data in the Japan Market
Market Segment
H.S. Girl
Application
64K
Dating Connection
136/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Mobility: Data vs Voice
• Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice– BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice
– US is behind Europe and Japan • Japan is approaching 50% data traffic
• Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient– 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3
– 3G systems have• IP backbones
• Lower cost per bit
• Easy service creation
• What will be the services?• Who will pay the bills?
146/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
UMTS
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8)EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8)UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136+
EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)
Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched VoicePacket-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
CDMA2000
PacketData
156/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000UMTS
GSM
TDMA (3G)
TDMA
cdma2000
cdmaOne
Analog
Other
UMTS 0 0 0 0 6745 14897 30641 56955
GSM 69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171
TDMA (3G) 0 0 0 0 140 885 2660 5445
TDMA 6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685
cdma2000 0 0 0 0 1285 6000 15435 27519
cdmaOne 7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237
1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mobility Subscriber Projections: by Technology
Lucent WNG View
Subscribers in Thousands
GSM
UMTS
166/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
3G Data Options
WirelessTechnology
SpectralBandwidth
ModeledThroughput
Peak Data RateExpected Market
Introduction
3G-1X1.25 MHz for
Data100-180 Kbps
305 Kbps(mobile)
1H2001(144Kbps peak rate)
HDR1.25 MHz for
Data400-600 Kbps
2.4 Mbps(fixed/mobile)
1H2002
EDGE Compact 1 MHz for Data 190-275 Kbps384 Kbps(mobile)
1H2002
EDGE Classic2.7 MHz for
Data330-370 Kbps
384 Kbps(mobile)
1H2002
WidebandCDMA-DS
5 MHz forVoice/Data
480-720 Kbps2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps(mobile)
1H2001 (Japan)1H2002 (Eur/NA)
WidebandCDMA-3X
5 MHz for Data 480-720 Kbps2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps(mobile)
2H2002
176/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.
The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.
…
Today’s Wireless Networks
99% Mobile Voice Circuit Derived
Base Stations
Next Generation Networks
Packet Mode
ServersHigh Speed Data, Multimedia, Voice
over IP, etc.
Wireless Control ServersFeature Control, Network Management, Billing, etc
Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)
Radio Clients
MSC
…
Internet / Advanced ServicesPSTN
Circuit Mode
ServersVoice, LS
Circuit Data, etc.
PSTN
Network Servers
Mobile Switches
IP / ATM Core Network
Transition to Next Generation Networks
186/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Services Rollout
Portal Link
Web access
Intranet
3G
1Q1999 4Q1999 4Q2000 4Q2001
WAPlaunch
Mobile OfficeSchedule Management Work flow ManagementElectronic Conference
File Sharing
Video
Multi-playerGames
Music
m-banking
Interactive TV
TV Conference
InformationServices
Radio
Visual, High Speed
SMS
Picture clips
Route planning
ChatRoomemail
GPRSVideo clips
Web cam
m-stock tradingm-cash
196/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
10
EricssonR320 WAP Phone
& MC218Mobile Companion
• Docomo
• Pocketboard
QUALCOMMpdQ™ smartphone
MotorolaStarTAC™ clipOn
Organizer NeoPoint™1600 smartphone
Nokia7110 phone &
9110 Communicator
SharpZaurus
Bandai Bandai WonderSwanWonderSwan
Samsung MP3 Phone
The Devices are Awesome
206/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00
Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates
• Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice– 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz
– 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.
• For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )– 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.
– About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license
• => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps• Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations
– Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps
– Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X
• If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3) – ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal
– Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible
216/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
License Winner Price A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited £ 4,384,700,000 B Vodaphone Limited £ 5,964,000,000 C BT (3G) Limited £ 4,030,100,000 D One2One Personal Communications Limited £ 4,003,600,000 E Orange 3G Limited £ 4,095,000,000
Will UMTS Happen?: Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction
~$34B says it will!
Rest of Europe by Fall
226/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Backups
236/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Multiple Access Schemes
CDMADifferent “Languages”
FDMADifferent Carriers
TDMADifferent Time Slots
FHSSOrthogonal Time Slots & Carriers
246/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)
• Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate circuit and packet data services
• Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network with adaptive modulation and coding
• Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels • Two versions of EDGE:
– EDGE Classic enables full backwards compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)
– EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (< 1 MHz) deployments
• Channel structure supports:– Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps– Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to
200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum deployments)
256/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Wireless data network
• Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)• Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD)• Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)
Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size
Macrocell-mobiler~3-5 km
Minicell-mobiler~1 km
Picocell-pedestrianr~100 m
BLAST technology used in every one
266/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Internet Volume Approaches Voice
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+061.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
1.E+11
1.E+12
1.E+13
1.E+14
Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00
Bits/sec
Voice/Modem
Total Internet
WWW
New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks
Projected
Actual
Worldwide voice/modem traffic
Source: Internet Society
Projected Crossover 1999
Data=10xVoice2000
Show Me The Money!
276/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
PSTN
IP/ATM Core Network
ANSI-41BackboneNetwork
PacketPacketGatewayGateway5ESS5ESS
SwitchSwitch To Data and VOIP Gateways
SGSNSGSN GGSNGGSN
CircuitCircuitData IWFData IWF
• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.
• Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.
• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.
• Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.
IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data
IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data
Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC
Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC
7RE 7RE FeatureFeatureServersServers
7RE7REResourceResourceServersServers
CustomerCustomerCare NMCare NMServersServers
PacketPacketGatewayGateway
Call Call Control Control ServersServers
Mob Mob ManagerManager
7RE 7RE SignalingSignalingGatewaysGateways
APsAPs
APsAPs
Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal
Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.
286/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution … (continued)
• Handoff enabled through reselection procedures• Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE
in GSM Release 2000• Phase 1
– Standards: Release ’99– Large deployments start in 2002
• Some initial deployments start in 2001
– Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to about 384 kbps
• Phase 2 – Standards: Release 2000– Large deployments start in 2003
• Some initial deployments start in 2002
– Will add Voice over IP capability
306/5/2000 Richard E. Howard
3G Solution Direction
• One Network delivering Voice and Data services
– Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market needs
– IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services
– Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry
– Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability (99.999%)
• Flexible Service Creation
– Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments
– Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services
– Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added interfaces
• Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider• Rapid Network Deployment
– Easy to install and maintain
– Self Optimizing
– Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs