07. gestión de fallas críticas con enfoque probabilístico en flota pesada - adolfo huamán diaz

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07. Gestión de Fallas Críticas Con Enfoque Probabilístico en Flota Pesada - Adolfo Huamán Diaz

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  • 1

    Management of critical failures with probabilistic approach

  • 2

    1. PAS 55.

    2. UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence & PAS - 55.

    3. Strategic Management.

    4. Tactic Management.

    5. Maintenance Cost.

    6. Critical Failures (Bad Actor).

    7. Probabilistic Approach.

    8. Models Development.

    9. Benefits and Goals.

  • Organizational Strategic Goals

    Corporate Organization Management

    Manage Asset Portfolio

    Manage Assets System

    Manage

    Assets Create / acquire

    Utilize Maintain Renew

    /Disposee

    Optimize Life Cycle Activities

    Sustained Performance, Cost and Risk Optimization

    CAPEX optimization and sustainability planning

    Layered Integration

    Life Cycle Optimization

    Sustained Value

    Value Creation

    Business Criticality

    Continuous Improvement

    Pragmatic

  • Inclusive Whole Cycle Optimized Risk - Based Data - supported Continuous

    Improvement Pragmatic

    Human

    Assets

    Info

    Assets

    Intangible

    Assets

    Financial Assets

    Physical Assets

    Vital Context:

    Business, Objectives, Policies, Performance

    requirements, Risk Assessment

    Important Interface:

    Condition, Asset Health, Performance, Activities, Costs & Opportunities

    Important Interface:

    Reputation, Social Responsibility, Constraints,

    Social Impact

    Important Interface:

    Life Cycle Cost, Capital Investments, Operating

    Costs

    Important Interface:

    Motivation, Communication, Roles & Responsibilities, Knowledge,

    Experience , Leadership, Teamwork

  • Human

    Reliability

    Maintainability Equipment's

    Equipment Reliability

    Process

    Reliability

    Asset Reliability

    Vital Context:

    Business, Objectives, Policies, Performance

    requirements, Risk Management

    Important Interface:

    Internal Reliability, Planning & Scheduling Effectiveness, Tactic

    Management, Background.

    Important Interface:

    Maintenance Strategies, Maintenance Optimized; Maximize

    MTBF, MTTF, MTTR, UPTIME

    Important Interface: Knowledge, Understanding, Lean Process, Performance

    measurements & Know How

    Important Interface: Active participation of people,

    Positive influencer, Continuous Improvement, Do

    How

    Inclusive Whole Cycle Optimized Risk - Based Data - supported Continuous

    Improvement Pragmatic

  • 6

    Q

  • 7 7

    Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz Physical Asset Optimization

    MAINTENANCE ADMINISTRATION, Business Systems, IT HH RR.

    FRAME WORK

    PRODUCTION Operations FINANCE, Capital Management

    Information Technology

    Purchasing

    Training Management

    Capital Effectiveness, RONA

    Production Rate

    Spare Parts Management

    Systems & Operating Improvements

    ASSET OPTIMIZATION

    Safety, Health, Environment, Risk Management and Control

    Production Effectiveness

    Availability

    Reliability

    Quality

    Production Planning

    Process Control O&M Cost

    Optimization

    Maintenance Management

    DRIVERS BUSINESS EFFECTIVENESS: ROCE, RONA, EBIT

    Value = Quality x Service

    Cost x Time x Risk

    Q $

  • 8 8

    OPEX CAPEX

    Development

    Costs

    Investment

    Costs Operating Costs

    CMC + IOP + EI

    Cost of Low Reliability = Risk

    Operating Costs + Planned

    Maintenance Research

    Design

    Acquisition

    Building, Installation & Commissioning

    At Working (Years) Today

    Disposal

    Risk

    f(t)

    Cost

  • 9 9 9

    9

    C-MORE, Canad

    STRATEGY - > 60 days

    EM - Strategy

    Equipment Health

    Strategic Planning &

    Budgeting

    Reliability Engineering

    Component Life

    Cycle Cost Mgmt

    Lean Maintenance

    Efficiency

    Continuous

    Improvement

    PLANNING - < 60 days EXECUTION

    Functional Failures

    Mgmt

    Condition Monitoring

    Prognostic Analysis

    Application & Operation

    Mine Planning

    Mine Operations

    Preventive Maintenance

    - PM

    Programmed Component

    Replacement - PCR

    Backlogs Mgmt

    Preventive Maintenance

    Quality PM

    Programmed Component

    Replacement - PCR

    Backlogs Mgmt

    Breakdown

    Diagnostics

    Execution

    Asset Health Mgmt

    Daily Tactics

    Data Capture

    Downtime Top Ten

    Maintenance Efficiency

    OEM Warranty Mgmt

    Work-Order

    Administration

    Risk Assessment

    FACILITIES MGMT Health Inspections

    PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

    Facilities

    Maintenance

    SHER Policies

    Facility Projects

    COST ACCOUNTING CAPEX OPEX

    Risk

    Assessment

    Financial

    Health

    Availability Utilization Reliability CPH

    Work-Order Mgmt Non

    Destructing

    Testing

    FMEA

    SFMEA

  • Equipment Health

    Reliability Engineering

    Component Life Cycle

    Cost Mgmt

    Lean Maintenance

    Efficiency

    Continuous

    Improvement

    Functional Failures

    Mgmt

    Condition Monitoring

    Prognostic Analysis

    The first job of your PdM Program: Identifying how your equipment can fail Selecting the right PdM strategies and

    technologies to apply to the Physical Assets Determining the amount of PdM coverage for your Fleet, Equipment, System, Sub-system, etc.

    Ranking the criticality of each item of equipment Building databases for each PdM Tech

    improvement Determining PdM staffing levels

    Non

    Destructing

    Testing

    Reliability & PdM Process

    SFMEA

    DTA

    AHR

  • 11

    2. UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence.-

    Asset

    Management

    Basic Care

    Strategy

    People

    Performance Management

    Materials Management

    Work Management

    Support System Management

    Leadership

    Essentials

    Choosing Excellence

    The Uptime Pyramid of Excellence (Campbell & Picknell).

    People

    Process

    Tech

  • 12

    3.- Tactic Management (Cont.).-

    Coordinate with Operations (Business Focus).

    Develop the maintenance strategy for the critical equipment or Bad Actor. Based on RCM analysis & Tactic Management.

    Define a "Interim Corrective Action"

    Evaluate the feasibility according to the current strategy (spares, people, planning window, downtime impact, risk).

    Develop and execute the "Action Plan ASAP.

    Align with the Core Business (Cost, Risk & Benefits).

    Implement a continuous improvement process.

    People

    Process Tech

    R

  • 13

    2.- Inspection Decisions: Optimizing CBM

    P F curve customized to mobile equipment (CBM)

    Book Ref: DISPATCH

    Dispatch to Maintenance. Truck HT110 please check TPS for low power fault

    Wireless

    Download

    Real Time VIMS

    Event Monitoring

    Real Time

    Diagnostics

  • 14

    5.- Maintenance Costs.-

    " Sobre el 60% del Costo de Mantenimiento durante el tiempo de Vida de un equipo, son causados por Defectos evitables durante el Diseo, Adquisicin,

    Instalacin, Operacin y Mantenimiento".

    7%

    5%

    31% 32%

    8%

    17%

    Division of Maintenance Costs by Origin

    Management

    Construction

    Non Preventable

    Operations

    Maintenance

    Design & Engineering

  • 15

    5.- Maintenance Costs (real context).-

    Cost Opportunities to mobile equipment

  • 16

    6.- Critical Failures (Bad Actor).-

    1. Hidden Failure. 2. Low Detection Level (Low sensitivity to change). 3. Randomly. 4. Catastrophic Consequences (Cost, Downtime, Productivity).

  • 17

    3.- Strategic Management.-

    C-MORE, Canada

    Component

    Replacement

    Decisions

    Inspection Decisions

    Capital Equipment

    Replacement

    Decisions

    Maintenance

    Resource Requirements

    Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)

    Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

  • 18

    3.- Tactic Management (Cont.).-

    C-MORE, Canada

    Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)

    Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

    R

    ep

    lace

    me

    nt

    Co

    mp

    on

    en

    t Best Preventive:

    DPD.

    Replace Only Failure.

    Constant Interval.

    Age - Based

    Spare Parts Provisioning

    Repairable Systems. In

    spe

    ctio

    n D

    eci

    sio

    ns

    Inspection frecuency.

    Profit Maximization

    Availability Maximization.

    Inspection Intervals.

    FFIs.

    Condition - Based Maintenance.

    Blended Health, Monitoring & Age Replacement.

    C

    apit

    al R

    ep

    lace

    me

    nt

    Economic Life.

    Constant Annual Utilization.

    Varying Annual Utilization.

    Technological Improvement.

    Repair vs Replace

    Re

    sou

    rce

    's R

    eq

    uir

    em

    en

    t Worshops Machines.

    Right Sizing Equipment.

    Lease / Buy

    Probability &

    Statistics

    Stochastic Processes (CBM Optimization)

    Time Value of Money

    Queing Theory

    Simulation

  • 19

    6.- Optimizing Equipment Maintenance: Replacement Equipment.-

    Reactive

    Fix it after it Breaks: Overtime Heroes

    Preventive (PM)

    Maintain before it Breaks

    Pdm / Condition

    Based (CBM)

    Identify and correct specific problems, before something Breaks

    Proactive (PROACT)

    Eliminate problems, eliminate source of Breakage

    Reliability Driven

    Identify and eliminate causes of failure; minimize the need for Maintenance

    $

    e

    "Para alcanzar una mxima efectividad y un costo ptimo las

    Organizaciones deben esforzarse para ir hacia el enfoque Proactivo manejado por confiabilidad;

    rpidamente como sea posible"

  • 20

    7.- Reliability Modeling, Prediction, Lifetime Analysis Probability Approach.-

    PDF

    t

    Key Variable. Studying variation. Continuous. Measurable. Accuracy. Sensitivity on time.

    uom

    MTTF

    x

    f(t)

    y(x) y=f(x)

    h(t)

    Reactive Focus

    Proactive Focus

    Cost

    Risk

    Benefits

  • 21

    6.- Reliability Analysis (PDF).-

    Findings: The MTTF to Con Rod Bearings Fail" is less than the Business

    Objective (PCR). High probability of failures.

    0.00014

    0.00012

    0.00010

    0.00008

    0.00006

    0.00004

    0.00002

    0.00000

    X = Bearing Hours

    De

    nsit

    y

    = 5,647

    36.8%

    0

    Business Objective: 16,000MTTF = 5,030

    Distribution PlotWeibull, Shape=1.7, Scale=5648, Thresh=0

    = 1.7 (Wear out)

    2010

    63.2%

    PCR : Programed Component Replacement

    Software Ref:

  • 22

    6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (four major components of reliability).-

    24000180001200060000

    0.00010

    0.00005

    0.00000

    Bearings Hours

    PD

    F

    100001000100

    90

    50

    10

    1

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    24000180001200060000

    100

    50

    0

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    24000180001200060000

    0.00045

    0.00030

    0.00015

    0.00000

    Bearings Hours

    Ra

    te

    Erosion Cavitation

    Layer separation & Fatigue

    Failure Mode

    1.94045 9848.63 0.964 29 0

    1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0

    Shape Scale Corr F C

    Table of Statistics

    Probability Density Function

    Surv iv al Function Hazard Function

    Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110518LSXY Estimates-Complete Data

    Weibull

    Bearings

    Hours

    Erosion

    Cavitation (r%)

    236 99.9

    1,557 97.2

    2,879 91.2

    4,200 82.5

    5,521 72.2

    6,842 61.0

    8,164 49.9

    9,485 39.4

    10,806 30.1

    12,127 22.3

    13,449 16.0

    14,770 11.1

    16,091 7.4

    17,412 4.8

    18,734 3.0

    20,055 1.8

    21,376 1.1

    22,697 0.6

    24,019 0.3

    25,340 0.1

    Failure Modes: Erosion Cavitation (wear out). Layer Separation & Fatigue (randomly).

    Software Ref:

  • 23

    6.- Lineal Regression Statistical Model.-

  • 24

    6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Plot to Accum Variable vs. Working Age.-

    Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in mobile equipment

  • 9000800070006000500040003000200010000

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    Bearing Hours

    Accu

    mu

    late

    d L

    ea

    d

    2500 (Infant Age)

    29 Caution

    7000 (Mid Life)

    WT047

    WT051

    HT150HT143HT119HT113

    HT111

    HT080

    HT074

    HT066HT050

    HT151

    HT152

    HT115

    HT135HT105 HT055

    HT054

    HT046

    HT147HT123HT120 HT114HT108

    HT107

    HT064HT056

    HT144HT142HT122HT067HT048

    HT128

    HT127 HT126

    HT124

    HT063

    HT061

    HT044

    HT106

    HT102HT071

    HT065

    HT149

    HT140HT112HT110

    HT103

    HT101HT060HT137

    HT130HT116HT052HT139HT133

    HT134 HT077HT073

    HT062HT131

    HT104HT145

    HT059HT072

    HT138

    HT132 HT057

    HT045HT141

    HT125 HT070HT154HT076

    HT049

    HT117HT078

    HT118

    HT079

    HT058

    HT146HT121

    HT069

    HT153

    HT053

    HT068HT109

    HT148

    HT136

    HT129

    HT075

    Matrix Plot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110511

    25

    6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate Bad Actors.-

    Scheduled to 16th May

    Scheduled to 23th May

    This con rod bearings was changed by Mid Life & On condition

    Scheduled to 24th May

    After of HT068

    Scheduled to 16th May

  • 26

    6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis by Crystal Ball to Erosion Cavitation [email protected]

    There are used for: Uncertainly. Time series prognostic. Probabilistic Optimization

    Software Ref:

  • 27

    6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate the "Bad Actors" according the Risk (Slope).-.-

    1000080006000400020000

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    x = Bearing Hours

    y =

    Accu

    mu

    late

    d L

    ea

    d

    2879 (86.2%)

    29 (Fail)

    6842 (53.5%)

    R-sq = 71.7%

    Matrix Risk of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours

    y = f(x); Accum Lead accord with Con Rod Bearings Hours (normal condition); not by exception.

    = 0.006

    = 0.005

    = 0.007 = 0.005

    = 0.005

    = 0.004

    Software Ref:

  • 28

    6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted to Two Life Cycle for Con Rod Bearings".-

    Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in mobile equipment

  • 29

    6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted with the Real Context.-

    120001000080006000400020000

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    X-Data

    Y-D

    ata

    Accum Lead HT069 * Con Rod Bearing HT069

    Accum Lead HT069_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_1

    Accum Lead HT069_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_2

    Variable

    Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT069

    Slope: 0.005; R-sq= 97.3%

    Slope:0.004; R-sq= 95.6%

    Slope:0.006; R-sq= 96.1%

    9000800070006000500040003000200010000

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    X-Data

    Y-D

    ata

    Accum Lead HT055 * Con Rod Bearing HT055

    Accum Lead HT055_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_1

    Accum Lead HT055_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_2

    Variable

    Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT055

    Slope:0.002; R-sq= 95.7%

    Slope:0.003; R-sq= 98.6%

    Slope:0.001; R-sq= 67.9%

    9000800070006000500040003000200010000

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    X-Data

    Y-D

    ata

    Accum Lead HT144 * Con Rod Bearing HT144

    Accum Lead HT144_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_1

    Accum Lead HT144_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_2

    Variable

    Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT144

    Slope:0.006; R-sq= 98.7%

    Slope:0.007; R-sq= 99.3%

    Slope:0.003; R-sq= 99.1% 1. Parameters: 1. R-sq > 65%. 2. Individuals Trends. 3. Risk of Failure

  • 30

    6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate Bad Actors.-

    120001000080006000400020000

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    Con Rod Bearing Hours

    Accu

    mu

    late

    d L

    ea

    d

    7000 (Mid Life)2500 (Infant Age)

    29 (fail)

    HT075HT146HT129 HT076HT109HT154HT147WT047

    HT148HT115HT074

    HT056HT119

    HT124

    HT114HT064HT120HT122HT067HT048

    HT142HT072HT123 HT108HT127HT126HT063HT044HT105

    HT059HT065

    HT057HT132HT128HT101HT060HT071HT140

    HT107 HT110HT137HT052HT102HT106HT130HT139 HT138

    HT112HT116HT073

    HT045HT131HT077

    HT133 HT141HT103 HT125

    HT070HT049

    HT104 HT078HT145 HT058HT079

    HT117

    WT051HT055HT121HT053

    HT061HT068

    HT153

    HT054

    HT144

    HT069

    R-sq= 75.1%

    Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110602TBD (accident)

    Has accumulated 9,241 hours scheduled to Jun

    11th

    Scheduled to Jun 03th

    Has accumulated 5,683 hours, scheduled to Jun

    26th

    Has accumulated 6,937 hours, scheduled to Jun

    6th

  • 31

    6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis_20110623.-

    20000150001000050000

    0.00012

    0.00008

    0.00004

    0.00000

    Bearings Hours

    PD

    F

    100001000100

    90

    50

    10

    1

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    20000150001000050000

    100

    50

    0

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    20000150001000050000

    0.0006

    0.0004

    0.0002

    0.0000

    Bearings Hours

    Ra

    te

    Erosion Cavitation

    Layer separation & Fatigue

    Failure Mode

    2.22049 8790.94 0.943 44 0

    1.61573 7396.52 0.859 45 0

    Shape Scale AD* F C

    Table of Statistics

    Probability Density Function

    Surv iv al Function Hazard Function

    Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110623ML Estimates-Complete Data

    Weibull

    Software Ref:

  • 32

    6.- Risk Management: Survival and Hazard Function Analysis.-.- 20000100000

    0.00010

    0.00005

    0.00000

    Bearings Hours

    PD

    F

    100001000100

    90

    50

    10

    1

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    20000100000

    100

    50

    0

    Bearings Hours

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    20000100000

    0.0003

    0.0002

    0.0001

    0.0000

    Bearings HoursR

    ate

    Erosion Cavitation

    Layer separation & Fatigue

    Failure Mode:

    1.66230 9079.24 0.963 33 0

    1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0

    Shape Scale Corr F C

    Table of Statistics

    Probability Density Function

    Surv iv al Function Hazard Function

    Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours per Failure ModeLSXY Estimates-Complete Data

    Weibull

    h (; , ) =

    .1

    FM1:Erosion Cavitation

    FM2:Layer Separation & Fatigue

    Where, = = Shape. = = Scale.

    ,

    h ()

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3 1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    = shape

    Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in

    mobile equipment

  • Desired Performance FunctionalFailure

    Time

    R (t)

    Detectable Deterioration

    Total Failure

    UnexpectedBreakdown

    P

    F

    PotentialFailure

    Warning Interval(P F Net)

    PrematureReplacement

    Cost Curve

  • 25002000150010005000

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    x=Bearing Hours

    Accu

    mu

    late

    d L

    ea

    d

    2500 (Infant Age)

    29 (Caution Level)Linear

    Quadratic

    Fits

    HT076

    HT118

    HT136HT053HT069HT146HT109HT117 HT080

    HT149HT129

    HT075HT148HT143HT113HT151HT150

    HT152

    HT135

    HT065

    HT134

    HT068

    Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours (Monitoring State)

    Updated 20110623

    R-sq=70.6%

    R-sq=74.6%

    34

    6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot adjusted only to Normal Zone.-

    The behavior of this equipment is

    projecting to the caution zone

  • Q

  • 6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (PDF) improved.-

    37

    0.00012

    0.00010

    0.00008

    0.00006

    0.00004

    0.00002

    0.00000

    X = Hours

    De

    nsit

    y

    =8,573

    63.2%

    0 =9,356

    36.8%

    0

    MTTF=7,593 MTTF=8,315

    PCR:16,000Mid Life:7,0002.1 8573

    2.6 9356

    Shape Scale

    Weibull, Thresh=0

    Distribution Plot: Layer Separation, Erosion Cavitation

    Updated: 20110804

    63.2%

    =2.6

    =2.1

    Findings:

    The MTTF to "Erosion Cavitation" is making progress toward the PCR.

    The MTTF in addition is covering the Mid Life Strategy.

    = Shape = Characteristic Life MTTF. Business Objective ICA.

  • 7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

    38

    Findings:

    The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are: Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium & Cooper.

    In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service accuracy)

    0.50.40.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.3

    0.4

    0.3

    0.2

    0.1

    0.0

    -0.1

    -0.2

    -0.3

    -0.4

    Component 1

    Co

    mp

    on

    en

    t 2

    Kin Visc

    NitrationOxidation

    SulfurSoot

    Potassium

    Sodium

    Silicon

    Aluminum

    Copper

    Tin

    Chrome

    PQ

    Iron

    PLS Loading Plot: Lead HT134March to July 2011

    Iron Copper Silicon Soot Sodium Oxidation

    Software Ref:

  • 7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

    39

    Best Subsets Regression: Lead versus Iron, PQ, ... HT103 Response is Lead

    P O N

    A o x i K

    l S t i t i

    C C u i S a S d r n

    h o m l o s u a a

    I r p i i d s S l t t V

    r o T p n c i i o f i i i

    Mallows o P m i e u o u u o u o o s

    Vars R-Sq R-Sq(adj) Cp S n Q e n r m n m m t r n n c

    1 79.9 79.1 47.8 0.56865 X

    1 79.3 78.4 50.0 0.57765 X

    2 84.5 83.1 33.9 0.51021 X X

    2 83.4 81.9 37.8 0.52829 X X

    3 86.9 85.1 27.5 0.47961 X X X

    3 86.1 84.2 30.3 0.49376 X X X

    4 89.2 87.2 21.5 0.44527 X X X X

    4 88.6 86.4 23.6 0.45806 X X X X

    5 91.8 89.7 14.6 0.39854 X X X X X

    5 91.3 89.1 16.3 0.41025 X X X X X

    6 93.6 91.6 10.1 0.35964 X X X X X X

    6 92.3 89.8 14.9 0.39640 X X X X X X

    7 94.4 92.2 9.6 0.34809 X X X X X X X

    7 94.0 91.6 11.0 0.35981 X X X X X X X

    8 94.9 92.5 9.8 0.34114 X X X X X X X X

    8 94.6 92.0 10.9 0.35134 X X X X X X X X

    9 95.2 92.6 10.6 0.33918 X X X X X X X X X

    9 95.2 92.5 10.6 0.33996 X X X X X X X X X

    10 96.2 93.6 9.3 0.31408 X X X X X X X X X X

    10 95.8 93.0 10.7 0.32990 X X X X X X X X X X

    11 96.4 93.6 10.4 0.31420 X X X X X X X X X X X

    11 96.3 93.4 10.9 0.32006 X X X X X X X X X X X

    12 96.6 93.5 11.8 0.31707 X X X X X X X X X X X X

    12 96.6 93.5 11.8 0.31712 X X X X X X X X X X X X

    13 96.8 93.3 13.2 0.32197 X X X X X X X X X X X X X

    13 96.7 93.2 13.4 0.32473 X X X X X X X X X X X X X

    14 96.8 92.8 15.0 0.33339 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

    Oxidation Level.- This represent the PM

    service accuracy

    Wear Variables.- This represent main

    predictors

    R sq (adj). Cp Mallows

  • 7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.-

    40

    Findings:

    The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are: Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium, Kin Visc & Oxidation

    In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service accuracy)

    0.40.30.20.10.0

    0.3

    0.2

    0.1

    0.0

    -0.1

    -0.2

    -0.3

    -0.4

    -0.5

    -0.6

    Component 1

    Co

    mp

    on

    en

    t 2

    Kin Visc

    Nitration

    Oxidation

    Sulfur

    Soot

    Potassium

    Sodium

    SiliconAluminum

    Copper

    Tin

    Chrome

    PQ

    Iron

    PLS Loading Plot: HT103

    Iron Copper Silicon Soot Sodium Oxidation Kin Visc

    Software Ref:

  • 7.- Deterministic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot & Prognostic Determination.-

    41

    70006000500040003000200010000

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    X-Data

    Y-D

    ata

    7000 (Mid Life)2500 (Infant Age)

    29 Accum Lead Generated * Con Rod Bearing Hours SimulatedAccum Lead HT053 * Con Rod Bearing HT053Variable

    26262525

    252424

    23

    202020202019

    1716

    13

    876

    5

    4

    2

    8

    76

    5

    42

    Scatterplot of Accum Lead G vs Con Rod Bear, Accum Lead H vs Con Rod B

    HT053, Bronze Bearings

    R-sq = 91.5%R-sq = 98.4%

    Distribution ID Plot for Lead Descriptive Statistics

    N N* Mean StDev Median Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis

    6 0 1.66667 0.516398 2 1 2 -0.968246 -1.875

    Goodness of Fit Test

    Distribution AD P

    Normal 1.091

  • 8.1 Summary of all cost in the first year (only 2011)

    Summary of Benefit Cost:

    Clearly avoided catastrophic failure - HT130: $530,610.30

    Avoided possible catastrophic failure in progress (11 cases): $3555,841.56

    Total Cost of Benefits: $4086,451.86

    8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.-

    Summary of Impact Cost:

    Control the situation - One time assumed impact: $1022,976.67

    Implement the actions - Future impact: $584,193.58

    Total Cost of Impact: $1607,170.25

    Difference between Benefit and Impact:

    Total Cost to Avoid: $2479,281.61 42

  • 43

    8.2 Summary of all cost in the following years (2012 to up)

    Summary of Benefit Cost:

    Annual rate of engine catastrophic faulires avoided (8 cases): $2586,066.59

    Total Cost of Benefits: $2586,066.59

    8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.-

    Summary of Impact Cost:

    Implement the actions - Future impact: $584,193.58

    Total Cos of Impact: $584,193.58

    Difference between Benefit and Impact:

    Total Cost to Avoid: $2001,873.01

  • Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz General Manager AMBE

    [email protected]

    44