® the new craft of intelligence: personal, public, & political robert david steele truth helps,...

®

The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political

Robert David Steele

<[email protected]>

Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001. 2

®

Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off

LIC Business is Good

Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof

High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman


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Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman


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Ethnic Fault Lines 200043 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton


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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6


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Collateral Specifics for 2000

Complex Emergencies29 Countries

Refugees/Displaced67 Countries

Food Security27 Countries

Child Soldiers42 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other

Landmines62 Countries

Torture Common94 Countries

Corruption Common78 Countries

Censorship Very High63 Countries

*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map


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10%

50%

25%

15%

State vs State

State vs Nation

Inter-Ethnic Tribal

Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization


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1. Break-Out 2. Black Death 3. Barricade (Good or Bad)


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Four Threat TypesPHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(MIC / HIC)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(LIC)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(C3I WAR)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(JIHAD)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR


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Means - Ends Disconnect

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA Allies Russia China Rogues

MilitaryDiplomacyHome Front


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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:

1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or

1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or

10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or

1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water


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New Strategy: 1 + iii

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Home Guard

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Reserve

Minutemen


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Bloom on Biology of Intelligence

• When conformity enforcers silence diversity generators the group is committing mass suicide

• Language and culture kill half our brain cells

• Internal processing more vital than external collection


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Saul on Pathology of Reason

• Secrecy is pathological, undermines public confidence

• Intelligence is about disseminated knowledge, not about secrets

• Western thinking has been corrupted by its focus on industrial processes in isolation from culture.


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Wilson on Unity of Knowledge• All knowledge is related

and interactive--science without the humanities is mis-guided dangerous science

• Knowledge and education must be universally distributed within the public, not held back by selected policymakers


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McKibben on Missing Information

• Information is not a substitute for “being there”

• Television killed history--media only acknowledges reality for which film exists (last 40 years vice 4000)

• One day of human observation is vastly more valuable than one day of electronic noise.


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McKenna on Real-Time

• Forget about trying to predict or impose a future

• Instead, cast a very wide net of intimate probes for early warning of what your clients need

• Then be able to collect, process, and deliver in real-time, over and over again


®

Davenport & Beck on Attention

• 1) Global Coverage for AWARENESS

• 2) Surge target-local focus for ATTENTION

• 3) Domestic political focus for ACTION

• 10 seconds for scanning, 3 minutes for attention: new standard for products


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Wheaton on Warning• Warning solution includes

– Casting wide early net

– Surging on potential hotspots

– Getting senior’s attention

• Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management


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Pelton on Ground Truth

• Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud

• You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security

• We simply are not grasping essential ground truths


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Shawcross on Endless Conflict

• Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations

• Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict

• Good will without strength makes things worse


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Information Superiority

Information System

Relevant Information

Intelligence

Surveillance

Reconnaissance

Information Grid

Computers

Communications

Control

Command

Information Warfare

C2 Warfare

C4ISRISR

C4I

C3

C4

C2

Information Operations

Command and Control

Current Doctrine

INFORMATION UNIVERSERelevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret

Decision-MakerIntegration, Reflection & Decision

RANDOM

SECRET

EXISTING INPUT

normal staff process,

counterparts, family/friends

OPEN SOURCEINPUT

Internet &private sector fee-for-service

Information Management StaffCollection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation

1

2


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HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE


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Real-World Information

Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*27 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO


®

Competing Security Models

SI/TK

Selective Importation

System High/Firewall

Just Enough, Just in Time

Default to Validated OSINT

SI/TK

Validated OSINT


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Minimal Mandatory Languages

• Arabic• Catelan• Chinese• Danish• Dari• Dutch• English• Farsi

• Finnish• French• German• Indonesian• Irish• Italian• Japanese• Korean

• Kurdish• Kurmanji• Norwegian• Pashto• Polish• Portuguese• Russian• Serbian

• Spanish• Swedish• Tamil• Turkish• Urdu• etc• etc• etc


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TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

BIG CHANGE NUMBER ONE


®

The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!

INFORMATION

TIME

Actionable Intelligence

Available Information

Open source information is more complex than secrets…

BIG CHANGE NUMBER TWO


®

2%

50%

48%

Real-WorldInformation

Dead Brain

Starved Brain

“A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste….”Dan Quayle, Future DCI


®

Policy Intelligence

Military Intelligence

Law Enforcement Intelligence

Coalition Intelligence

Business Intelligence/OSINT

Mass & Niche Media Intelligence

Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”

Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education

Pieces Not Coming Together

International

Coalition

Options


®

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation


®

Global Distributed Knowledge

National Distributed Knowledge

Government Knowledge

Intelligence Community

1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION

ROI of 3N for a $1B Bridge to OSINT


®

Striking A New Balance

TECHNICAL $$

HUMINT $$

OSINT $$

LIFERS

MID-CAREER HIRES

1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS

IC MANNING IC DOLLARS

UNCLASSIFIED

SECRET

TS

IC PRODUCTION


®

PRODUCTIONTOOLKIT

Q ADIRECT ACCESS

TOOLKIT

MEDIATED ACCESS TOOLKIT

Internet Stream

Offline Stream

Human Experts“Temp Hire” Approach:

World Class/One Day Only

PROCESSINGTOOLKIT

INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing

Commercial Feeds

Maps & Images

Feedback Loop


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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

Finished Intelligence and Reporting

A

B

C


®

ICMAP + NSA(P) = IC2

The Processing Advantage

50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE


®

OPG VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance Learning

Virtual Library

Shared Calendar

Virtual Budget

Shared 24/7 Plot

Shared Rolodex


®

New Rules of the Game I

• Informing Policy, not Collecting Secrets

• Global Coverage beats Hard Targets

• Translation in 28+ Languages Gets Serious

• Two Levels Down (Sub-State Intelligence)

• Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental

• Processing beats Collection for Dollars

• Geospatial and Time Tagging Mandatory


®

New Rules of the Game II

• Global OSINT Benchmarking Finally Done

• Counterintelligence Across the Board

• Cross-Fertilization (Human & Technical)

• Decentralized Data Base (NGO, Private)

• Value = Content + Context + Speed

• Gap-Driven Collection instead of Priorities

• Needs-Driven Production vice Capabilities


®

New Rules of the Game III

• Strategic Intelligence Matters More

• Budget Intelligence is Mandatory

• Public Intelligence Impact Public Policy

• Analysts as Managers

• New Measures of Merit

• Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing Rules

• Clearances Matter Less than Knowledge


®

Recommendations

• SAG Budget Analysis--cross-walk threat/$

• SAG Skunkworks--integrated experiments

• SAG Solutions--cost out now and future

• SAG Mentors--history, outreach, memory

• SAG IG--document shortfalls in collection, processing, management, and clients

• SAG PR--publish unclassified reports

®

The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political

Robert David Steele

<[email protected]>

Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

® the new craft of intelligence: personal, public, & political robert david steele truth helps,...

Documents

copyright oss

jongman slide

bad slide

crisis management slide

pioom map slide

external collection

greg stanton slide

current doctrine slide