® strategic threat assessment: a regional approach to intelligence, force structure, & combined...
TRANSCRIPT
®
Strategic Threat Assessment:A Regional Approach to Intelligence,
Force Structure, & Combined Operations
Robert David SteeleOSS.NET
3 March 2003Miami, Florida
®
Gorillas Can Be Difficult
• We are sensitive to your concerns about US unilateralism
• We need your expertise and investments as much as you need ours
• Security cooperation today is more complex, non-traditional
® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
®
Global Threats to U.S. Security
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
®
World War III Players
Bacteria/Environment
Nation-States
Gangs & Mobs
Companies & NGOs
Money, Objects, Individuals
®
US Incentives for Listening
• Red Arrows --mass exodus to US/EU/RU
• Black Stars--plagues that travel
• Blue Crosses-- investment barrier
None of these is subject to traditional military power--but a combined regional force with teeth can apply soft power well.
®
Special Challenges
• Cultural & Historical Intelligence
• Economic (Trade) Security Intelligence
• Environmental Security Intelligence
• Financial (Money) Security Intelligence
• Medical Security Intelligence
• National Security Intelligence– Acquisition, Concepts, Force Structure
®
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
®
Seven Intelligence “Tribes”The Way Ahead
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
®
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Creating the World BrainWeb-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
®
Regional Intelligence Center
OSINTHUMINTIMINT
SIGINT
Deputy for CollectionCountry B
DigitizationTranslationVisualization
Analytic Support
Deputy for ProcessingCountry C
WarningEstimativeCountries
Issues
Deputy for AnalysisCountry D
Chief of CenterCountry A
Deputy for CounterintelligenceCountry E
Deputy for Covert ActionCountry F
®
OASCTF
StrategistsAdvise Policy
ConstabularyStabilize Failed Areas
Domestic ThreatsWater, Food, Health
Citizen EducationRegional Network
Force on ForceTrain & Fight
Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch
Small WarsControl Territory
Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes
Regional Agile Forces for Peace
®
Contact Information
• Robert David Steele• OSS.NET• POB 369• Oakton, VA 22124• Email: [email protected]• Voice: (703) 242-1700• Fax: (703) 242-1711• Web: www.oss.net