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The Freshwater Cycle and its Role in the Pan-Arctic System: Contributions from the NSF-Freshwater Initiative (FWI). ________________________________________________ SEARCH Open Science Meeting Seattle, WA 27-30 October 2003 _________________________ Charles J. Vörösmarty - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Freshwater Cycle and its Role in the Pan-Arctic System:
Contributions from the NSF-Freshwater Initiative (FWI)
________________________________________________
SEARCH Open Science MeetingSeattle, WA
27-30 October 2003_________________________
Charles J. Vörösmarty University of New Hampshire
Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI)
Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?• Quantify Stocks and Fluxes• Document Changes to the Arctic
Hydrologic Cycle
Q2: If So, Why?• Understand the Source of the Change:
Attribution
Q3: What Are the Implications• Develop Predictive Simulations of
Feedbacks to the Earth and Human Systems
Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program
ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study
Rivers / Land•Hinzman
•Kane•Karabanov•Lettenmaier
•Peterson•Serreze•Smith•Yang
Atmosphere-Land-Ocean
•Holland/Wu•Semiletov
•Vörösmarty
Snow, Ice, Permafrost
•England•Pielke
•Yu•Zhang
Ocean & Sea Ice•Ackerman/Francis
•Falkner•Lee
•Proshutinsky•Steele
•Tremblay
FWI PROJECT THEMESCHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH
(AO NSF-02-071)
Human Dimensions
•White
Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches
Visit the CHAMP Science Management
Office Website http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu
NSF-ARCSS Charged Arctic-CHAMP to Help Coordinate FWI
-Oversight via SSC and FWI All-Hands Meetings
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Eurasian River Discharge (km
3/y)
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
slope = 2.0 ± 0.7 km3/y per yearp = 0.005 Eurasian River Discharge (Sv)
Earth System&
Societal Feedbacks
From: M. Vellinga; CLIVAR
Change to Freshwater Cycle
CompromiseTHC
Reduce Northward Heat Transport Enormous Societal Challenges (e.g. feed 10 billion)
Peterson et al. 2002, Science
Peterson et al. 2002
Major Earth System & Societal Feedbacks
• “Simple” questions asked ---> complex interactions uncovered• Gaps identified • Playing field on which disagreements can arise • Links physics, biogeochemistry, biology
Q: What is the impact of climate change on sea ice? Feedback and
System Sensitivity Studies (a la CHAMP)
Simple Process Models: First Formal Tests of Heuristic Notions
THC
Sea Ice
Heat Balance
The Freshwater Cycle Links Every Major Arctic Systems Component
-- Change Resonates through System--
• Physics• Biology• Biogeochemistry
• Natural variability • Anthropogenic
change• Human vulnerability
.… and central to the analysis of…….
Challenge: To Develop Dynamic Arctic Earth System Models
Community Model
High Permafrost Sub-Watershed
12 June 2001
5 June 2001
Sur
face
Soi
l Moi
stur
e (%
S
atur
atio
n)
Courtesy of Hinzman et al.
Kuparkuk (AK) 1995
End of Season Conditions
Fraction of winter precipitation returned to atmosphere
End of winter snow water equivalent depth distribution
Courtesy of Pielke et al.
Large-scale sections
Boundary current section
…based on Jones et al. (1998); Steele & Boyd (1998); Proshutinsky et al. (2002); Rigor et al. (2002)
From: Steele
et al.
From: Falkner et al.
FWI/ASOF Oceanographic Studies of Regional Sea Studies
Basin Studies of Water Budgets Components and Discharge
From: Lettenmaier et al.
Source data: Mark Serreze (CU), Mike Steele (UW), UNH, and government agencies from around the pan-Arctic
River Discharge
ArcticRIMSR-ArcticNET
E-RIMS FRAMEWORK FOR COUPLED PAN-ARCTIC LAND-OCEAN-ATMOSPHIRE STUDIES
Courtesy of Vörösmarty et al.
• Stocks, residence times• Critical but Uncertain Pathway: Atmospheric• Budget Closure Disparity Large
-- Land….1700 km3 y-1
--Ocean….2800 km3 y-1
A FIRST-ORDER ATTEMPT AT WATER BUDGET CLOSURE
Major FWI Challenges
• Integration across Projects• Build toward Systems Synthesis
– Assemble “the Basics”/ Test for Mutual Consistency
– Integrate Process Understanding into a “Unified View” to Address Feedbacks
– Local-->Basin-->Regional-->Pan-Arctic
• Entrain Graduate Students into System Synthesis