[ on concepts and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging...

Scanning for emerging science and technology issues

Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities

The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European

Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues

[On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy

Dialogues on Emerging Issues]

Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente Carabias, Totti Könnölä, Miriam Leis, Ozcan Saritas, Petra

Schaper-Rinkel, Victor van Rij12-05-2011

04/22/23SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

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Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio-

economic Sciences and Humanities

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Objectives of the SESTI project

• Researching the added value of early warning signal scanning to identify emerging issues

• Assessing the pro’s and con’s of several scanning methods

• Identifying ways to connect scanning to the policy community


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Lobbyists

Advisory boardsPlanning agencies

Voters

Decisions for the Future

Media

Info and Issues

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/One-ton_weight.svg/400px-One-ton_weight.svg.png


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Weak signals and other concepts

Past Present Future

Trend

hype

hype

Trend

Trendws: weak signalwc: wildcard

wc

wc

wcws

Emergingissues

ws

ws

ws


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From weak signals toemerging issues

$100 internet course

……….

…….

Shift to the privitizationof education

……

……….

30% extension oflife mice

Disruption of thepension system

Internet offer

Research paper


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Why should we look for emerging issues?

• Much info and many issues are biased by their bringers, even scientific advice is biased by disciplinary thinking

• Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents, they scan the world for

this (although there are some good exceptions)

• Most issues coming to the policy makers have a short term character

• While good governing needs the capacity to foresee and to anticipate

• Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good intuition for what the future may bring, but the knowledge they can use for this , is limited to their sources


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Content orientation of SESTI1. Focus on functional aspects of the innovation system2. Focus on content

Public perception

Science and technologydevelopments

Organizational changes

Healthcare Energy To be chosen

X X X

X X X

X X X


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Overall process of scanning

Weak signalsassessment

Weak signalsscanning

Signaltransformation

Issueinterpretation

Weak signals(long list)

Key signals(short list)

Key emergingissues

Emergingissues


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Approach

Projectstart up

Scanning foremerging

issues

In depthanalysis

WorkshopsKnowledgedissemination

Processinginformation

WikiHub

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1

3 4 5

2

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SESTI project• Are there ways to improve the information basis

to identify the most important future issues that need policy attention today?

• Are there early warning (weak) signals that can be used to identify them?

• If so where and how to find them and how to use them to feed them into the policymakers agenda?


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Definition and criteria emerging issue

Emerging issues are storylines (Future Narratives) with:

• High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain)

• Plausible storyline (including factual basis –reliable sources )• Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy makers)

• Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects)

• Interests at stake (commonalities and or conflicts)

• Changeability (Can the story or its impact be altered by human action)

• Policy relevance (does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels)


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Sources and tools for scanning Non participative / (digital) written sources• Systematic manual scanning (internet –search engines)• Literature study• Text miningParticipative / stakeholders & experts • Survey• Wiki• Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook• Twitter• Workshops etc


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Systematic Internet scanning• Internet Search on internet using search engines

provided by : google / bing• Google selects all pages (texts & vids) with the

“search string”• sorts the pages that are most connected/central Needed:• Qualified scanners (fast interpretation)• Frame of reference (coordinates/for which

domain does the scan take place/criteria)• Intelligent questions• Workshops

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SESTI-manual scanning


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Past Present Future

Emerging issue BB

= Primary signal (full or partial future issue description)

= Affirmative Secondary signal

= Not affirmative Secondary signal

= Expected affirmative signal not showing up

= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of

Secondary signals to watch for)

The principles of Issue Centered Scanning


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Primary signal & secondary signals16


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Emerging issue A

Emerging issue B

Hype issue C

Past Present Future

B

C

A

WC

ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING


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Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter• An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders : Q

what they see as new emerging issues /early warning signals?

Needed:• own website (SESTI-wiki – blog ) or account on

existing platform (Linked In , Face book, Twitter)• Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants• Open /structured set up• Analysts to interpret data (text mining)

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SESTI Wiki – for emerging issues


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SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/Twitter


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Emerging issue F

Emerging issue A

Emerging issue C

Hype issue D

Past Present Future

WC

EXPLORATORY SCANNING


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Exploratory ScanningCharacteristics:• Broader scanning area scope and “bottom-up”• Information about singular events• Utilisation of foresight communities

– People who are scanning for new information on a regular basis put up in forums, blogs, discussion lists and finally twitter

– Enabling of interdisciplinary discussions about credibility and potential future implications

– First assessment to filter out unreliable information– Complementing with focused discussions or surveys

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Conclusions of Exploratory Scanning• Emerging issue identification and analysis is a

complex social process Interests, agendas and selective perception need to be kept in mind

• Human communication with experts/scanners and clients/policy-makers is essential

• Quality of original source and transparency of processes impact the interpretation and conclusions

• Social networking can provide added value for identification and assessment of signals and emerging issues (but resource constraints exist!)

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Conclusions of Exploratory ScanningDifferent approaches can be strategically combined• broaden the spectrum of possible signals

(e.g. through crowd sourcing like twitter and blogs for exploratory scanning);

• improving the credibility assessment (e.g. by establishing interdisciplinary discussion groups for validation);

• complementing the validation process (e.g. by performing issue-centred scans, surveys, workshops etc.) utilising automated tools for clustering and network analysis of issues;

• maintaining an interaction between the clients of the analysis (e.g. decision/policy maters) and those who look for the information.

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Experience scanning methodsTool Reach

/SourceObservation time

Coherence degree of the signal

Quality check

Novelty Dialogue

Manual scanning

Very largewww

Anytime Largeand small

Available high NA

Literature study

Largewwl

Anytime Large Available medium NA

Survey Specific limited

One time Small Low, except experts

medium NA

Text mining

Large Runs with preparation

Small ?? Complex

? NA

Wiki Specific limited

Dependent on participants

Large in theorySmall in practice

Available Medium to high

Some

Blog Linked In etc

Specific limited

Dependent on participants

Medium to large

Dialogue Medium to high

Open

Twitter Specific limited

All the timecontinuous

Small NA high Twitter


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Scanning methods tested within SESTI

Participatory methods

Non-participatory methods

Conferences Surveys

WikiTwitter

Manual support

Semi-automated support

Text mining

Manual scanning


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Evaluation criteriaPolicy – makers noted importance of scanning to identify:• the connections, clustering of weak signals and the degree

of relevance to a specific area;• the duration of the ‘weakness’ of the signal associated also

with the time the signal is observed, the origin and the novelty of the weak signals;

• any rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues;• the existence of a strategy already concerned with the

specific weak signal(s) / emerging issues by a government or industry, lobby or international organisation;

• positive and negative impacts and associated policy implications;

• policy recommendations.

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Conclusions of Evaluation• Need different approaches as all have advantages and

disadvantages• Overall, participatory methods are of crucial importance

for the last stages of the scanning process enabling verification and filtering of results as well as policy implication and recommendations.

• Semi-automated methods are appreciated especially those drawing on large expert communities in terms of enabling systematic scanning and retrieval of ‘inside’ information in the first scanning phases as well as in verifying the results.

• The value of the more ‘conventional’ methods like expert surveys, literature review and conference visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs.

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• TNO: Main coordinator

• MinOCW: Scanning ([email protected])

• AIT: Processing of information

• UniMan: In depth analysis

• IPTS: Policy workshops

• MCST: Knowledge dissemination

SESTI-Partners [www.sesti.info]

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