-kardar poverty_-final_presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Regional Inequalities
By Shahid Kardar 24 April, 2008
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IntroductionAlthough inter provincial disparities withrespect to household poverty marginal, notas sharp as say in India, but humandevelopment indicators distinctly better inPunjab
Does data capture recent changes ?
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Incidence of Poverty by Province
Source: Cheema, Iftikhar Ahmad. A Profile of Poverty in Pakistan
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Incidence of Poverty & Contribution to Total
Poverty by Province, 2001
Source: Cheema, Iftikhar Ahmad. A Profile of Poverty in Pakistan
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Deprivation Level Across Provinces 2004-05
(% of Districts)
Source : Social Policy & Development Center 2007
Range Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
Up to 50 29 19 4 4
Above 50 71 81 96 96
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Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)T en Lowest Deprived Districts of Pakistan
MID 2005 MID 1998 Annual Rate of change (%)
Karachi 20.9 24.6 -2.3
Lahor e 29.2 34.3 -2.3
Guj ranwala 38.5 45.1 -2.2
Sialk ot 40.9 40.3 .2
R awal pindi 41.4 41.0 .1
Guj rat 42.7 46.5 -1.2
Faisala bad 44.2 45.6 -.4
Peshawar 44.2 50.8 -2.0
Sukk ur 44.5 58.0 -3.7
Quett a 46.0 46.0 .0Source:Jamal,Haroon and Amir Jahan Khan. Indices of Multiple Deprivations 2005.
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Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) ( Contd.)
T en Highest Deprived Districts of PakistanIMD 2005 IMD 1998 Annual Rate of
change (%)
K ohistan 71.7 83.0 -2.1
Khuzdar 72.8.0 79.0 -1.1Qilla Abdullah 73.9 76.1 -.4
Jhal Magsi 74.7 79.2 -.8
Panjgur 75.6 79.2 -.7
Qilla Saif ullah 76.8 76.2 .1Zhob 77.1 79.3 -.4
Kharan 77.6 82.9 -.9
Awaran 79.8 80.4 -.1
Mu sakh el 82.8 89.1 -1.0Source:Jamal,Haroon and Amir Jahan Khan. Indices of Multiple Deprivations 2005.
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Education
Adult Literacy Rate 10 yrs & Older (%)
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2006-07 58 55 47 42
1998-99 46 51 37 36
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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E ducation ( Contd.)
Population that has Completed Primary Level Education orHigher (%)
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2006-07 49 47 38 29
1998-99 38 41 21 25
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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NER at the Primary Level , age 5-9 &excluding katchi class (%)
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2006-07 62 50 49 41
1998-99 44 41 39 36
NER at the Middle School Level , age 11-13 (%)
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2006-07 34 31 31 19
1998-99 30 29 21 16
NER at the Matric level, age 13-14 (%)
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2006-07 11 10 6 5
1998-99 9 12 4 6
E ducation (Contd.)
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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H ealth IndicatorsFully Immunized Children under 12-23 months (%)
Year Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2005-06 58 32 47 32
1998-99 39 17 38 10
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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H ealth Indicators ( Contd.)Pre natal Consultations (%)
Y ear Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan
2005-06 53 56 43 36
1998-99 33 37 22 18
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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Main Source of Drinking Water (%)
2006-07 Punjab Sindh NWFP
Balochistan
T ap water 29 47 44 37
Hand pump 35 32 116
Moto r pump 31 8 9 3
Du g well 2 4 14 16
Other 3 10 22 38
1998-99 Punjab Sindh NWFPBalochista
T ap wa ter 20 32 38 25
Hand pump 56 35 92
Moto r pump 19 6 18 6
Du g well 3 8 18 38
Other 2 18 24 28
H ousing, Water Supply & Sanitation
Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM
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Real per capita household expenditure of Rural poor households - Punjab.
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Punjab.
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds - Sindh.
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Sindh.
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- NWFP
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- NWFP
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Balochistan
Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Balochistan
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Annual non farm Income Shares by E xpenditure Quintiles in Rural Pakistan in(2001-02 Rs)
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Quality of, & Access to Infrastructure
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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F irms Identifying Various Investment Climate as Constraint (%)
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Access to Markets
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Major Rural & Small Town Investment Climate Constraints
Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction
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Widening Differentials
Sharp widening of Differentials,especially in last 5-6 years
Reasons for growing disparities advantage to Punjab:
a. Transfers under N F C Award continue to favour it;
b. No Coalition Government & better qualitygovernance;
c. More competent bureaucracy;
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Widening Differentials (Contd.)
d. Nature of growth-more skill intensive;financial sector, telecommunications, oil& gas, assemblers of motor cars, motor cycles and tractors and associated
vendor industry;
e. H istorical advantage in education andskill development;
f. TE VTA and PVTC better at developmentof low level skills (construction sector,computer operators, electricians,mechanics, welders, plumbers etc.)
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Widening Differentials (Contd.)
Managerial and Technical skilldevelopment in Private institutions for higher education LUMS, LS E , BNU, F CCollege and GCU, providing privatesector with managerial and related skills.
Better public sector institutions Quaid-e-Azam University, Punjab University,Medical Colleges (K E MC, FJ , AllamaIqbal,Nishtar) E ngineering Universities(UE T, NUST and Cadet Colleges)
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Widening Differentials (Contd.)
d. Water availability through better managementof irrigation systems;
e. Credit to farmers by formal banking system;
f. More equitable land holdings, especially incentral Punjab; and
g. Overall E conomic Growth.
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Widening Differentials (Contd.)
Improved Infrastructure:a) 26,000 km of roads in 1999-2000, now
than 70,000km;b)New industrial estates , for example:
Sundar and upgrading of existing ones.
Shifting of investment from Sindh intoPunjab after disturbances in Karachi(process started in late 1980s)
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Widening Differentials (Contd.)
Due to more reform mindedgovernments since the late 1990sdonors keen to engage and providefunding (>than Rs.10 billion a year for last 3-4 years)
Disparity gap to increase, especiallyas agricultural subsidies get phasedout internationally under WTO
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Recommendations
Revise Constitution to give provincescontrol over resources below the ground-oil and gas and major mineralsRevise N F C Award to also factor in area(for minimum cost of service provision),backwardness, revenue collectionF iscal & administrative decentralizationF ocused education, technical training &infrastructure dev.programmes for NW F P& Balochistan- with fiscal incentives