© copyright 2017-2018 david hillson/the risk doctor ...© copyright 2017-2018 david hillson/the...
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© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
MANAGING RISKIN
COMPLEX MEGA-PROJECTS
Presented by
Dr David HillsonHonFAPM, PMI Fellow, CFIRM
APM Risk SIG Annual ConferenceLondon, 25 January 2018
The Risk Doctor The Risk Doctor [email protected] www.risk-doctor.com
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
Complex Projects:moving from Mission Impossible
to Mission Accomplished?
WHY MISSION IMPOSSIBLE??
Project size increasing (mega-projects)
Project complexity multiplying (wicked projects)
Pace of change accelerating (volatile projects)
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
Mission Impossible solution
Heroic effort from superstar professional
High levels of skills & tech support
Huge budget ($650M)
Amazing special effects
Improbable good luck
Or…??
manage the risk?
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
Your mission, should you choose to accept
it, is to manage the MegaMax project.
MegaMax is vital to the survival of our
organisation. It is certain to fail, due to its
huge size, high levels of complexity,
unclear requirements, competing
stakeholder demands, and fast rate of
change.
You must make sure that MegaMax
succeeds to deliver all its intended benefits,
on time and within budget.
Congratulations, you are the MegaMax
Project Manager. As always, should you
or any member of your team fail, the
organisation will deny all knowledge of
your actions.
This message will self-destruct in five
seconds…
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
Three key questions
1. Are complex projects different?
Inherently ambiguous and unpredictable
not
2. Do complex projects have different risks?
Typical risks, but also
emergent risks
3. Can these risks be managed?
Traditional RM plus
Futures Thinking
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Futures Thinking
Process:
Define Preferred Future(s)[set clear objectives]
Identify Possible Futures
Analyse to find Probable Futures
Manage future proactively to make Preferred Future more probable
How to identify Possible Futures:
Scenario planning
Visualisation
Trend-watching / Horizon-scanning
Field Anomaly Relaxation
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Futures Thinking
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Futures Thinking
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Yes, but how??
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Risk management:forward-looking radarScans ahead to identify Possible Futures
Analyses alternatives to find Probable Futures
Provides techniques to manage future proactively
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Manage the future proactively
NOW
GOOD
BAD
VERY GOOD
UNKNOWN
EXCELLENT
POOR
UNKNOWABLE
DISASTER
CRISIS
UNKNOWN
AVERAGE
TOLERABLE
FUTURE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
NEW
NOWFUTUREOLD
NOW
CHANGE THE FUTURE
through
MANAGING RISK
NEW GOOD
NEW EXCELLENT
NEW BAD
NEW UNKNOWN
CREATE
NEW
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES
GOOD/BETTER
(BAD)
(VERY GOOD)
UNKNOWNEXCELLENT/
MORE LIKELYPOOR
(UNKNOWABLE)
DISASTER/LESS BAD
(CRISIS)
UNKNOWN
(AVERAGE)
TOLERABLE
xx
x
x
x
CHANGE
PREVIOUSLY
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
Manage the future proactively
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TRADITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT
Standard risk response strategies for typical risks:
Threats
Avoid / Transfer / Reduce / Accept
Opportunities
Exploit / Share / Enhance / Accept
But what about emergent risks?
Standard response strategies won’t work
Emergent risks appear too late
Need different approach for complex mega-projects
Manage the future proactively1. Typical risks
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
PROJECT CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT
Two key risk response strategies:
Flexibility Able to bend without breaking
Adapt easily & quickly
“The bamboo that bends is stronger than the oak that resists”
Manage the future proactively2. Emergent risks
Resilience Capacity to maintain core purpose & integrity in face of challenge
Capability to regain original shape after deformation
“Bounce-back-ability”MR. BOUNCE
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Practical project continuity management:
Building flexibility & resilience
Project
Clear objectives
Appropriate risk budget & contingency
Flexible processes
Strong change management
Personal/team
Effective leadership
Empowered team
Emotional literacy skills
Positive attitudes
Technical
Iterative development
Design redundancy
Contractual
Adaptable T&Cs
Clear accountabilities
Business/organisation
Shared corporate culture
Grounded values
Strong stakeholder engagement
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If we can’t control the tides, we can learn to build better boats
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Which image bestdescribes your project?
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Don’t declare “Mission Accomplished” too soon!True agility may require modifying your Preferred Future!
From MISSION IMPOSSIBLE to MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
through MANAGING RISK
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Final thoughts
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
Managing risk incomplex mega-projects
Use objective-setting to define Preferred Future(s)
Use Futures Thinking to identify Possible Futures
Use risk management to analyse Probable Futures
Use risk management to change the future proactively
Traditional risk management for typical risks
Avoid/Exploit, Transfer/Share, Reduce/Enhance, Accept
Project continuity management for emergent risks
Flexibility & Resilience
Ensure agility at all levels
Project, personal, technical, contractual, organisational
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
FROM
TO
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Thank youAny questions?
© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership
For further information
Dr David HillsonThe Risk Doctor Partnership
+44(0)7717.665222
www.risk-doctor.com
YouTube.com/RiskDoctorVideo