Дополнительные услуги операторов связи: возможности,...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2 Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12
Выживание в джунглях. Теоретические советы. Vladimir Litovka ([email protected]) Business Development Manager, SP / RCIS
October ‘ 2012
Cisco Expo 2012 Новые Возможности для Ваших Идей
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Market trends
Increasing Revenue
Avoiding Churn
Reducing Costs
Key Takeaways
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“France Telecom-Orange (FT-Orange) … was hurt in its domestic market by intense competition triggered by the arrival of Iliad’s Free Mobile, a new low-cost cellco. Orange France lost 155,000 mobile subscribers during the second quarter, an improvement on the 615,000 lost during the first quarter.” – Telegeography
“… by 2016 operators will have lost $54bn in SMS revenues due to the increasing popularity of social messaging services on smartphones, more than double the $23bn they are expected to have lost by the end of 2012” – Ovum
"Broadcast IPTV's market share is diminishing rapidly,” … particularly in the U.S., which has coined the phrase 'cutting the cord' to describe users who end long-running, often expensive relationships with big cable TV providers and opt instead for content delivered by the likes of Netflix. -- Oliver Johnson, Point Topic CEO
✔ !
✔
✔
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 5
Cloud Services, Machine to Machine (M2M)
Microsoft 365, iCloud, Google Cloud, … • higher requirements to response time • higher requirements to network presence
Global software-as-a-service (SaaS) sales are tipped to grow almost 18% year-on-year in 2012, and will continue to increase through 2015. (Gartner)
The transition to Cloud based services such as Amazon EC2, iCloud, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Office 365 will contribute over 384 Exabytes (1018 bytes) to Internet backbone traffic by 2016. (Cisco VNI)
Majority of enterprises or 84% across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) consider cloud computing to be a priority and 56% consider it a critical priority over the next 18 months, according to a latest study. (Vmware)
The number of machine-to-machine device connections globally will grow to 2.1 billion by 2021, up from 100.4 million last year, according to new research from Analysys Mason.
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 6
Entertainment: Internet Video, File Sharing
Hulu
bandwidth hungry
* Source: Cisco 2011
91 Percentage Share of
Video in Consumer Traffic(*)
55 Percentage of Internet
Video in Consumer Traffic
Youtube
Netflix
non-multicastable
sensitive to packet loss
…
(*) Including Video over P2P
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© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Confidential Page 6 of 25
Adding backbone capacity is costly, but it has always been possible to get a return on these investments. Soon however, adding capacity will be seen to carry more risk than reward. Cisco and others anticipate that by 2015, a breaking point will be reached where the costs of expanding backbone networks will exceed the revenue potential present in the traffic carried (Figure 2)iii. This problem is exacerbated by the shifting of revenue towards content providers, leaving service providers struggling to capture sufficient revenue from predominantly flat–rate, bandwidth-based service offerings.
Many factors are driving service providers inexorably towards this breaking point – some technical, some architectural, and some organizational – but all result from the manner in which backbone architectures have traditionally been built. Continued reliance on conventional linear scaling solutions to address non-linear issues will only accelerate the arrival of this breaking point.
The following sections explore these factors and their impact. They also examine a number of proposals and point solutions that appear useful at first but, once examined, prove insufficient because they address only a single dimension of a multi-dimensional problem.
Finally, this paper will describe a set of new technologies and platforms that together enable a promising new architectural approach – one that can help service providers turn back from the breaking point and efficiently deliver the needed capacity and flexibility.
Factors Inhibiting Growth, Efficiency, and Profitability In order to thrive, service providers must find ways to increase revenue or reduce capital and operational costs from their backbone networks. Increasing bandwidth, flexibility, and efficiency are critical to achieving both of these goals. Several factors common to the majority of service provider backbone networks are slowing or preventing progress in these areas – including architectural/organizational factors and factors related to the DWDM, optical TDM, and packet layers.
Architectural and Organizational Factors
Traditional backbone architectures have evolved over many years to include layers that exist and operate in relative isolation. These layers include (as shown in Figure 3):
A Packet Layer: Based on IP/MPLS, this layer forms the foundation for packet based consumer, business, and Internet services. Today, IP/MPLS routers connect via circuits provided by the underlying TDM layer or, with increasing frequency, via wavelengths provided by the DWDM layer.
An Optical TDM Layer: This layer provides the ability to multiplex circuit- or packet-based services onto underlying wavelengths at sub wavelength-rate. Today, this layer is primarily based on optical-electronic-optical (OEO) technologies such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH), but a migration is beginning towards nascent, faster Optical Transport Networkiv (OTN) switching technologies. Circuit services for voice, mobile-backhaul, and private-line business services (services that require constant bit rates or hard isolation) are delivered by this layer.
Figure 2 - Global Service Provider Revenue versus Investments
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© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Confidential Page 6 of 25
Adding backbone capacity is costly, but it has always been possible to get a return on these investments. Soon however, adding capacity will be seen to carry more risk than reward. Cisco and others anticipate that by 2015, a breaking point will be reached where the costs of expanding backbone networks will exceed the revenue potential present in the traffic carried (Figure 2)iii. This problem is exacerbated by the shifting of revenue towards content providers, leaving service providers struggling to capture sufficient revenue from predominantly flat–rate, bandwidth-based service offerings.
Many factors are driving service providers inexorably towards this breaking point – some technical, some architectural, and some organizational – but all result from the manner in which backbone architectures have traditionally been built. Continued reliance on conventional linear scaling solutions to address non-linear issues will only accelerate the arrival of this breaking point.
The following sections explore these factors and their impact. They also examine a number of proposals and point solutions that appear useful at first but, once examined, prove insufficient because they address only a single dimension of a multi-dimensional problem.
Finally, this paper will describe a set of new technologies and platforms that together enable a promising new architectural approach – one that can help service providers turn back from the breaking point and efficiently deliver the needed capacity and flexibility.
Factors Inhibiting Growth, Efficiency, and Profitability In order to thrive, service providers must find ways to increase revenue or reduce capital and operational costs from their backbone networks. Increasing bandwidth, flexibility, and efficiency are critical to achieving both of these goals. Several factors common to the majority of service provider backbone networks are slowing or preventing progress in these areas – including architectural/organizational factors and factors related to the DWDM, optical TDM, and packet layers.
Architectural and Organizational Factors
Traditional backbone architectures have evolved over many years to include layers that exist and operate in relative isolation. These layers include (as shown in Figure 3):
A Packet Layer: Based on IP/MPLS, this layer forms the foundation for packet based consumer, business, and Internet services. Today, IP/MPLS routers connect via circuits provided by the underlying TDM layer or, with increasing frequency, via wavelengths provided by the DWDM layer.
An Optical TDM Layer: This layer provides the ability to multiplex circuit- or packet-based services onto underlying wavelengths at sub wavelength-rate. Today, this layer is primarily based on optical-electronic-optical (OEO) technologies such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH), but a migration is beginning towards nascent, faster Optical Transport Networkiv (OTN) switching technologies. Circuit services for voice, mobile-backhaul, and private-line business services (services that require constant bit rates or hard isolation) are delivered by this layer.
Figure 2 - Global Service Provider Revenue versus Investments Quality of Experience for Users Always on-net Quality of Support
Reduce Cost by: Service Delivery Infrastructure Simplification Dynamic Resource Allocation: Optimal Utilization
Increase Revenue through: New Business Models: Trusted Aggregator New Partnerships: Content, Applications, Business
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New business models and services
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Walled Garden Services + Simple IP Peering for Internet
Quality and Fair Payments + Scale and Openness
Services Network Closed Ecosystem
Roughly Symmetrical Traffic patterns for Access Service Provider
Internet Access & Triple Play Provider
Internet Backbone Provider
Internet Service Provider
Internet Service Provider
Loose Ecosystem, Connectivity-based
$ $ $
$ $
$ Premium Content Provider
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$ $ $
Internet Backbone Provider
Internet Service Provider
Internet Service Provider
Applications and Content
Providers
Internet Access & Triple Play Provider
Premium Content Provider
Margin Squeeze for Access SP
Highly Asymmetrical Traffic patterns
$ $ $ $ $
$ $
Breaks Traditional Internet Peering Business Model
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$ $ $
Internet Backbone Provider
Internet Service Provider
Internet Service Provider
Applications and Content
Providers
Internet Access & Triple Play Provider
Premium Content Provider
CDN eases traffic mismatch
$ $ CDN and Cloud-based Content
Consumption $ $
Federated CDN for Greater Reach, Better
User Experience
Other party CDN $
$
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 13 Optimum Value to End-Users
$ $ $
Internet Backbone Provider
Internet Service Provider
Internet Service Provider
Applications and Content
Providers
Internet Access & Triple Play Provider
Premium Content Provider
CDN eases traffic mismatch
$ $
$ CDN and
Cloud-based Content Consumption
$ $
Federated CDN for Greater Reach, Better
User Experience
Other party CDN
$ $ $
$
$ $ $ $ $ Cloud-based
Services Apps, Content, Resources
Global Backbone
Cloud-based Services
Cloud-based Services
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В начале 2012 года трафик только EX.UA только через UA-IX составлял около
80Gbps (около 30% общей загрузки UA-IX)
Sou
rce:
http
://ai
n.ua
/201
2/05
/24/
8575
1/
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Internet
Content Acquirer
Internet Streamers
Service Router
Published Content
Con
tent
Str
eam
er
• VoD Streaming • Live Streaming • Concurrent Multi-Protocol • HTTP Download & PDL
• Stream HTTP, RTSP, RTMP (U-/MCast)
• High Performance • Detailed Reporting
Con
tent
Acq
uire
r • Ingest to Hierarchical CDN
• VoD Library Ingest
• Live Streams Ingest
• VoD Prepositioning
• VoD Dynamic Cache-Fill • Live Dynamic Stream
Split
• HTTP, FTP, CIFS, NFS, RTSP
Serv
ice
Rou
ter • Global Load Balancing
• Content Request Routing
• HTTP, RTMP, RTSP, DNS
• Content and Load Aware
• Subscriber & Network Aware
• Integrates with BGP, OSPF
Management
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1x STB 2x STB 3x STB TV service (UAH / month) 25 32 39 Equipment (UAH / month) 13 20 30 Total (UAH / month) 38 52 69
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Sou
rce:
http
://tin
yurl.
com
/tabl
et-u
sage
-gro
wth
… and more than 70% of consumers use alternate electronic devices such as tablets, notebook PCs, smart phones, MP3 players and desktop computers to view TV/video content.
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Source: http://www.sostav.ru/news/2012/10/05/online_market_intelligence/
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Before (UAH / month) TV service Equipment Total Income (for 100k)
1x STB 25 13 38 60% 2,280,000 2x STB 32 20 52 30% 1,560,000 3x STB 39 30 69 10% 690,000 Total 4,530,000
After (UAH / month) TV service Equipment Total Income (for 100k)
1x STB 25 13 38 35% 1,330,000 2x STB 32 20 52 20% 1,040,000 3x STB 39 30 69 5% 345,000 Unlimited 46 13(*) 59 40% 2,360,000 Total 5,075,000
Growth (%) 12.0%
(*) Assume at least one STB in most cases – for at least one legacy TV set
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Sources: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2011; Bango Inc., February 2011; North Carolina State Univesity, Cisco IBSG 2011
80% of the time users are within Wi-Fi
coverage
Mostly nomadic use
19 out of 20 smartphones support Wi-Fi
50% of smartphone usage is already on
Wi-Fi
2010 2011 0%
50%
100%
23% 50%
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Source:http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012-10?op=1
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Hotspot 2.0
Automatic network selection
Transparent authentication
Secured air interface
Security: rogue prevention
Transparent roaming
Full mobility & portability
MCC MNC
EAP-SIM/AKA
A5
A3/A8
802.11u
EAP-SIM/AKA
802.1x
802.1x
Hotspot today Hotspot 2.0
More details @ http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns524/ns673/white_paper_c11-649337.html
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RF Intelligence
ClientLink
• Up to 87% throughput improvement • 20% range increase • Tested & validated by
Beamforming: focusing RF energy towards clients
CleanAir
• Automatically mitigate impact of wireless interference
• Self-healing, optimization • Network-wide visibility
Silicon-based spectrum analyzer
BandSelect
• Optimizes RF utilization • Frees up 2.4GHz space for single band
clients
AP-assisted 5Ghz band selection
VideoStream
• Video quality optimization • Resource reservation and streaming prioritization
• Reliable multicast
Wireless optimized for video
• Higher user density
More details @ http://www.cisco.com/go/spwifi
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B2C
B2SP B2B
Bundling WiFi to another service Differentiation Reducing customers churn
Guest access Market visibility
Premium Hotspot More capabilities Additional fees or bundling
Managed Wireless LAN Additional fees or bundling
WiFi Roaming Agreements Mobile Offload Wholesale Managed Small Cells
Location-based services M2M connectivity Managed WiFi
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Access & Aggregation
Internet
NAT, Firewall
Wireless Controllers
Policy / AAA / DHCP / Portal
Broadband Network Gateway
Management & Provisioning
Home
Community
Office
Business Access Points
Indoor
Outdoor
Residential
Wi-Fi
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On-site Location Hardwared
“In-Cloud” Location Virtualized
* *
* *
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IaaS
PaaS
SaaS
Infrastructure as a Service provides users with processing, storage, networks, and other computing infrastructure resources. The user does not manage or control the infrastructure, but has control over operating systems, applica- tions, and programming frameworks.
Platform as a Service enables users to deploy applications developed using specified programming languages or frameworks and tools onto the Cloud infrastructure. The user does not manage or control the underlying infrastructure, but has control over deployed applications.
Software as a Service enables users to access applications running on a Cloud infrastructure from various end-user devices (generally through a web browser). The user does not manage or control the underlying Cloud infrastructure or individual application capabilities other than limited user-specific application settings.
Source: http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-145/SP800-145.pdf
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Microsoft 365
Google Apps Salesforce
Microsoft Azure
Google Apps Engine
WorkXpress Jelastic
IaaS
PaaS
SaaS
Amazon AWS & EC2 ДЦ Парковый
Savvis Terrermark
Cisco Hosted Collaboration
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Pay on Demand
Pay as You Grow
Optimal Allocation of Resources
Seamless Technology Upgrade
Focusing on Core Business Activities
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Additional Revenue
Long-Term Relationships
Market Recognition
Resources Optimization
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Revenue Increase
Churn Prevention
Market Visibility
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Quality of Experience
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Perception: 80% of CEO’s believe their brand provides a superior customer experience
Fact: 8% of their customers agree
Bain & Co (via FutureLab)
✔ Service and content from anywhere across all devices ✔
Technology perfection
Multi-Tier Support ✔
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Technology Perfection
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Efficiency • shortest / fastest paths • arbitrary topology • paths diversity • interaction with applications
Scalability, security • bandwidth • services • subscribers
Reliability, simplicity • time of troubleshooting • time of recover • time of provisioning
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Efficiency • shortest / fastest paths • arbitrary topology • paths diversity • interaction with applications
Scalability, security • bandwidth • services • subscribers
Reliability, simplicity • time of troubleshooting • time of recover • time of provisioning
MPLS
Ethernet
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Profitability = ƒ CapEx + OpEx Revenue
Manage the bandwidth Reduce operational complexity
Increase traffic efficiency
Making profit beyond basic subscriptions
Service quality and security
Maximize return from infrastructure
Investments savings
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Spanning Tree
802.1ad (QinQ)
T-MPLS
802.1ah (PBB)
802.1Qay (PBB-TE)
802.1aq (SPB)
REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL
ITU G.8032
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MPLS Transport Profile (TP)
Multiprotocol Labels Switching (MPLS) No Changes to Forwarding Plane during years
ASIC (Application-specific integrated circuit) is an integrated circuit, customized for a particular use, rather than intended for general-purpose use: • hardcoded for particular algorithm • on-board RAM used only for data, not for code • cheap in development and manufacturing • short lifetime
NPU (Network Processor Unit) is an programmable integrated circuit,
similar to general purpose Central Processor Units (CPU): • has set of microcoded generic functions like pattern matching, key lookups,
queue management, etc • can be programmed for any algorithm to execute • more expensive than ASIC • longer lifetime than ASIC’s one
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 43
Spanning Tree
802.1ad (QinQ) 802.1ah
(PBB)
802.1Qay (PBB-TE)
802.1aq (SPB)
REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL ITU G.8032
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MPLS Transport Profile (TP)
Multiprotocol Labels Switching (MPLS) No Changes to Forwarding Plane during years
T-MPLS
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Spanning Tree 802.1Qay
(PBB-TE)
REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, …
ITU G.8032
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MPLS Transport Profile (TP)
Multiprotocol Labels Switching (MPLS) No Changes to Forwarding Plane during years
T-MPLS
802.1ad (QinQ)
802.1ah (PBB)
802.1aq (SPB) TRILL
Every change in the format of the frame involves replacement of ASIC-based
“cheap” equipment
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Spanning Tree
802.1ad (QinQ)
T-MPLS
802.1ah (PBB)
802.1Qay (PBB-TE)
802.1aq (SPB)
REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL
ITU G.8032
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MPLS Transport Profile (TP)
Multiprotocol Labels Switching (MPLS) No Changes to Forwarding Plane during years
Investment Protection
Inter-vendors compatibility
Back Compatibility
Scalability, Reliability
Efficiency, Universality
Year-to-Year Cost Reduction
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Core Network 15%
Aggregation Network
35%
Access Network 50%
How often you want to reinvest third to half of the network’s cost?
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Scalability
Price
Services
ME3600X low-scale pre-aggregation
ME3800X business access
ASR903 mid-scale pre-aggregation
ASR9001
ASR9006 ASR9010 ASR9022
ME3600CX business access
✔
✔
✔
Ask your dealer for special promotions!
(✔)
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Full featured MPLS LER / LSR o MPLS L2 / L3 VPN (incl. VPLS) o MPLS TE / FRR o MPLS OAM
Ethernet Virtual Connections (EVC) framework Ethernet OAM
o including Y.1731
Bidirectional Forwarding Detection (BFD) Network Health Measurement (IP SLA) IP Routing IP Multicast
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 52
VPLS
EoMPLS PW
EoMPLS PW
EoMPLS PW
L3 subI/F
EFPs: VLAN
(802.1q/802.1ad)
VLAN xlate 1:1, 2:2 1:2
Multipoint EVC
P2P EVC
P2P EVC
Multipoint EVC
Bridging
Bridging
Routing
EFPs: VLAN (802.1q/802.1ad)
IP / PPPoE N:1 VLANs Ambiguous VLANS (1:1)
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 53
IOS-embedded diagnostic tool Sender / responder based SNMP for polling / traps for signaling Various parameters to monitor Supported protocols Per class of QoS MPLS VPN awareness
• Delay (both round-trip and one-way) • Jitter (directional) • Packet loss (directional) • Packet sequencing (packet ordering)
• Path (per hop) • Connectivity (directional) • Server or website download time • Voice quality scores
• UDP • ICMP
• TCP • Ethernet (using E-OAM)
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 54 Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 55
Look for new
business models
MPLS is affordable technology
Ethernet isn’t carrier
transport technology…
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 56
Happy networking!