© 2014 crain communications inc. the recruitment industry 2020 how will the industry and job boards...

© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.

The Recruitment Industry 2020How will the Industry and Job Boards Evolve?John NurthenExecutive Director, Global Research


Agenda

• The Recruitment Industry

• The Job Board Industry

• Key Trends


Staffing Market Foundations1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Belgium

Hong Kong

India

Switzerland

Brazil

UK

US

Netherlands

France

Australia

Ireland

Germany

Sweden

Japan

Italy

Source: Staffing Industry Analysts


South America

Africa &Middle

East

Europe

AsiaPacific


North America

Countries and regions are to scale

Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn in 2013


US

CA

BRSA

JP

AU

NL

IN


CHCN

UK

FR

IT

DE

BE

Countries and regions are to scale

Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn in 2013


Europe: Mostly a Commercial Staffing Market


Austria

BelgiumFin

land

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Switz

erland

United Kingdom

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Commercial Professional

Professional/Commercial Temporary Staffing Mix 2013


Largest Global Staffing Firms by 2013 Revenue

CompanyHQ

Country2013

Revenue €m Market Share %

Prior year Rank Listed

1 Adecco CH 19,509.3 6.1% 1 Y2 Randstad NL 16,568.3 5.2% 2 Y3 ManpowerGroup US 15,014.1 4.7% 3 Y4 Allegis US 7,865.3 2.5% 45 Recruit JP 4,635.6 1.5% 56 Hays UK 4,345.8 1.4% 6 Y7 Kelly Services US 4,077.1 1.3% 7 Y8 Robert Half US 2,799.7 0.9% 9 Y9 USG People NL 2,254.0 0.7% 8 Y

10 Tempstaff JP 2,029.0 0.6% 10 Y11 Express Employment Professionals US 1,839.7 0.6% 1212 Insperity US 1,581.7 0.5% 13 Y13 ADP (Automatic Data Processing) US 1,565.8 0.5% 2014 The Select Family of Companies US 1,526.5 0.5% 1515 Synergie FR 1,519.7 0.5% 19 Y16 Volt Information Sciences US 1,430.9 0.5% 14 Y17 Impellam UK 1,421.5 0.4% 17 Y18 Pasona JP 1,413.6 0.4% 11 Y19 Skilled Group AU 1,317.2 0.4% 18 Y20 Groupe Crit FR 1,299.8 0.4% 21 Y



Largest Listed Staffing Firms by Market Cap


Company Company WebsiteHQ

Country

Market Cap (€ Million)

at 1 October 2014*

Change 2014/2013 (1 October)

1 Recruit www.recruit-rgf.com JP 14,055 -2 Adecco www.adecco.com CH 9,555 -6.9%3 Randstad www.randstad.com NL 6,534 -12.4%4 Robert Half www.roberthalf.com US 5,164 21.8%5 ManpowerGroup www.manpowergroup.com US 4,262 -4.7%6 Hays www.haysplc.com UK 2,054 -1.0%7 Tempstaff www.tempstaff.co.jp JP 1,867 39.5%8 Page Group www.page.com UK 1,693 -12.6%9 On Assignment www.onassignment.com US 1,123 -19.8%

10 Korn/Ferry www.kornferry.com US 951 15.4%11 Brunel International www.brunel.nl NL 904 -6.9%12 TrueBlue www.trueblue.com US 788 1.9%13 Meitec www.meitec.co.jp JP 777 14.4%14 USG People www.usgpeople.com NL 745 24.1%15 SThree www.sthree.com UK 567 1.8%16 AMN Healthcare www.amnhealthcare.com US 557 14.7%17 Insperity www.insperity.com US 541 -29.3%18 Kforce www.kforce.com US 488 4.5%19 Groupe Crit www.groupe-crit.com FR 468 59.6%20 Kelly Services www.kellyservices.com US 454 -27.6%

*Recruit Market Cap based on closing day of IPO, 16 October 2014


A New Wave of M&A?

• Adcorp• Air Energi• DPA Group• Groupe Crit• Impellam• NGS Group• PeopleStrong• Randstad• Recruit• Synergie• Work Service


Country 2014 GDP Forecast

2014 Staffing Market Growth Forecast

UK +3.2% +9%

Germany +1.4% +8%

France +0.4% +3%

Netherlands +0.6% +4%

Europe +1.4% +8%

Japan +0.9% +9%

Australia +2.8% +2%

Brazil +0.3% -1%

South Africa +1.4% +17%

USA +2.2% +6%

Global +3.3% +6%

Staffing Market Forecasts2015 GDP Forecast

2015 Staffing Market Growth Forecast

+2.7% +7%

+1.5% +9%

+1.0% +4%

+1.4% +5%

+1.8% +9%

+0.8% +9%

+2.9% +2%

+1.4% +2%

+2.3% +16%

+3.1% +6%

+3.8% +7%

Source: Staffing Industry Analysts and IMF


‘Big Three’ Growth TrendsAverage Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted)


1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


‘Big Three’ Growth TrendsAverage Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted)

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q4 = +2.3%

Q1 = +4.3%

Q2 = +5.2%


Q3 = +4.2%


Agenda



• Key Trends


Global Job Board Market

• Estimates for size of the global job board market vary from $27bn to $3bn

– Linkedin ‘addressable market’ estimated at $27bn

• A tenth of the size of the global staffing market at most

• Digital recruitment up +25% in the UK in 12 months to March 2014*

• Facing competition from various sources**– Other employment-related websites– Niche career websites targeted at specific verticals– Job aggregator websites– Traditional media companies, including newspapers– Internet portals, search engines and general interest websites such as blogs

Sources: *Deloitte, **Monster


Largest Job Boards by Revenue

*Our estimates **Acquired by Seek on 21 November 2014


Rank Company HQ Country Annual Revenue (USD million)

Reporting Period

1 Recruit (Indeed, Rijunabi, Hatalike, etc)* Japan $2,400 Year ending 30/9/14 2 Linkedin (Talent Solutions) US $856 Year ended 31/12/13 3 Monster US $808 Year ended 31/12/13 4 Seek (including Zaopin, JobsDB, Bdjobs, etc) Australia $670 Year ended 30/6/14 5 Gannet Media (Careerbuilder)* US $500 Year ended 31/12/13 6 Axel Springer (Stepstone, Totaljobs, etc)* Germany $350 Year ended 31/12/13 7 51job China $278 Year ended 31/12/13 8 Dice US $213 Year ended 31/12/13 9 Craigslist* US $81 Year ended 31/12/13 10 The Ladders* US $80 Year ended 31/12/12 11 InfoEdge India $56 Year ended 31/3/14 12 JobStreet** Malaysia $54 Year ended 31/12/13 13 Beyond US $36 Year ended 31/12/13 14 Jobindex Denmark $25 Year ended 31/12/13 15 Jobs2Careers US $22 Year ended 31/12/13 16 NetJobs Sweden $6 Year ended 31/12/13


Quality of A

pplicants

Price

Quantity of A

pplicants

Number of h

ires

Cost per h

ire

Site tr

affic

Integration w

th employer's

ATS

Ability t

o search

resu

me bank

Cost per a

pplicant

Ability t

o create an employe

r bra

nd0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

In general, which of the following criteria are most important to your clients with regard to using or renewing your job board’s services? (Select the top 3)

Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2014

Top 10 Reasons for Using Job Boards


Linke

din

Lingerin

g effect of r

ecessi

on

Price ero

sion

Growth in

free jo

b boards

Socia

l recru

iting

Negative perce

ption of job board

s

Indeed

Face

book

Commoditisaton of jo

b postings

Growth of a

ggregators

Technologica

l change

Google and other search

engines

Mobile

computing re

cruiting

Twitter

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

UK (94 responses) Europe (50 responses) Rest of World (177 responses)

Which of the following do you see as the most significant threats to your job board in the coming 12 to 24 months? (check all that apply)

Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2013

Perceived Threats to Job Boards


Agenda



• Key Trends


Moresophisticated

customersexpecting

moresophisticated

solutions


Decentralized

Preferred Suppliers

Master Vendor

Managed Service Provider (MSP)

• Several suppliers• Procurement done

on an ad-hoc basis• Management done

internally

• Selective set of suppliers selected

• Contracts in place• Service level

agreements (SLA’s) in place

• One supplier (possibly managing second and third tier suppliers)

• One point of contact

• Direct cost savings on bill rate and usage

• Customized SLA’s and process

• Contingent workforce spend under management




• Non-compliant spend elimination

• Total cost of ownership savings

More Value

Evolving Contingent Workforce Models

More ComplexityMore Work, Slimmer Margins



2012/2013 Growth in MSP Spend by Country

Germany

Belgium

Canada

Japan

Spain

India

US

UK

Netherlands

Ireland

France

Australia

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

+86%

+44%

+28%

+19%

+11%

+7%

+3%

+2%

+40%

+32%

+8%

+34%



A Contingent Work World of Complete Information Transparency

Perfect information on…• Talent availability• Skills• Employee ratings and reviews• Employer ratings and reviews• Fit and success in a role• Costs and rates• Speed and efficiency• Sources of talent• Worker productivity correlated with what they ate for

breakfast!


Decentralized

Preferred Suppliers

Master Vendor




internally














More Value


More Complexity


?


Decentralized

Preferred Suppliers

Master Vendor


Total Talent Management



internally














• Total workforce spend under management

• Complete workforce visibility




• Increased total cost of ownership savings

• Additional productivity and process savings

• High degree of value added services

More Value


More Complexity



Talent strategy and business alignment

Metrics and Analytics

Workforce Planning

• Learning and Development• Career and performance management

Compensation/Benefits

TTM Integrates Traditional Talent Employment and Non Employee Labour

Traditional employees

Talent Acquisition ModesRecruiters, Direct Hire, RPO

Managed By: HR

Outsourced services

ContingentTemps, IC, SOW & Internal stretch

Agencies, MSP/VMS, Direct IC

Consulting & Outsourcing Firms

Managed By: HR and Procurement Managed By: Procurement



Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country

Source: Eurostat, March 2012

EU-270%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%

% EU % non-EU

Percentage Foreign Citizens


Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country

Source: Eurostat, March 2012

Netherlands

Portugal

France

Sweden

BelgiumEU-27 UK

Italy

Greece

Germany

Spain0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%

% EU % non-EU

Percentage Foreign Citizens


EU27 Population with/without Immigration

Source: Eurostat

540m

520m

500m

480m

460m

440m

420m

400m

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

2044

2048

2052

2056

2060

With migration Without migration

Decline starts 2012

Decline starts 2035

Without Immigration European Population Would Already be in Decline


The Human Cloud


The Human Cloud Landscape

How the Work is

Organised

Specific Worker(s)

“A Crowd”

What the Client GetsLabour Relationship

Service Output

Crowdsourcing

Online Staffing

Online Services

• freelancer.com

• Elance-oDesk

• Task Rabbit• FieldNation

• Work Market

• CrowdFlower• LionBridge

• Innocentive• 99Design

• LiveOps• Rev

• OnForce

• Peopleperhour

• Gigwalk

• Amazon Turk• Chaordix

• WikiStrat



A New Generation of Online Staffing Providers

Global Focus

Local Focus

Restaurant Workers, Field Service Techs, Day Labourers….

Onsite WorkSoftware Developers, Creative Designers, Writers, Editors, Translators…

Remote/Virtual Work



Online Staffing Platforms by Country Started

A Global Market Dominated by China and US


Other APAC

Africa & Middle East

LATAM

Other Europe

Israel

France

Spain

India

Canada

Japan

Australia

UK

US

China

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

196Online Staffing

firms in operation globally

Net4Manpower Freelance Students MBA and Company Freelancer Market OfficeCalvary Geek Freelancers MyTaskAngel elevated direct Total Freelance PeoplePerHour


Coming to an Office Near You

47% of all US jobs lost to automation in the next 10 to 20 yearsSource: Frey and Osborne


Impact of Automation on the US Staffing Industry

Staffing Segment Probability of Computerization

Office/Clerical 0.814 Industrial 0.796 Commercial 0.802 Finance & Accounting 0.845 Clinical/Scientific 0.413 Marketing/Creative 0.364 Other Professional 0.346 IT 0.278 Legal 0.275 Education 0.252 Healthcare 0.242 Engineering/Design 0.233 Professional/Specialty 0.327 TOTAL TEMPORARY STAFFING 0.719


© 2014 Crain Communications Inc. Source: Staffing Industry Analysts

Implications for the Staffing Industry?

• Some will harness technology to develop human-machine hybrid delivery models

• New jobs will be created as others are lost– Demand for contingent work to increase in the short to medium term due

to business disruption/uncertainty– Those staffing firms that don’t pay enough attention to the

implication of the shifting demand for skills will become extinct

• The role of the agency recruiter will fundamentally change


Summary

• 2015 growth easing (with higher risks)

• Economic uncertainty continuing (but a positive driver for contingent labour)

• Ongoing service sophistication– Evolving models to help companies manage their contingent labour

• Staffing firms and job boards face common challenges– Every threat is an opportunity

© 2014 crain communications inc. the recruitment industry 2020 how will the industry and job boards...

Documents

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y 18pasonajp1

y 10tempstaffjp2

y 3manpowergroupus15

y 2randstadnl16

y 4allegisus7

staffing market foundations