© 2004 jolt to the system: the transformative impact of nanotechnology mike treder executive...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2004
Jolt to the System:The Transformative Impact
of Nanotechnology
Jolt to the System:The Transformative Impact
of Nanotechnology
Mike TrederExecutive Director
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Troy, New York November 16, 2004
© 2004
Industrial Revolutions
FirstFirst RevolutionRevolution (1780–1840) (1780–1840)
Based in Based in United KingdomUnited Kingdom Steam Engine Steam Engine Textile IndustryTextile Industry Mechanical EngineeringMechanical Engineering
© 2004
Industrial Revolutions
SecondSecond RevolutionRevolution (1840–1900) (1840–1900)
Based in Based in EuropeEurope – –
England, France, GermanyEngland, France, Germany RailwaysRailways Steel IndustrySteel Industry
© 2004
Industrial Revolutions
ThirdThird RevolutionRevolution (1900–1950) (1900–1950)
Based in Based in United StatesUnited States Electric Engine Electric Engine Heavy ChemicalsHeavy Chemicals AutomobilesAutomobiles Consumer DurablesConsumer Durables
© 2004
Industrial Revolutions
FourthFourth RevolutionRevolution (1950–Present) (1950–Present)
Based in Based in Pacific BasinPacific Basin – –
California, JapanCalifornia, Japan Synthetics Synthetics Organic Chemicals (Oil)Organic Chemicals (Oil) ComputersComputers
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FifthFifth RevolutionRevolution (2010? – ??) (2010? – ??)
Based in Developing World?Based in Developing World?
China? India? Brazil? China? India? Brazil? NanotechnologyNanotechnology Molecular ManufacturingMolecular Manufacturing
The Next Industrial Revolution
© 2004
Socie
tal
Im
pact
s
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution
© 2004
The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler
© 2004
The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale.
© 2004
The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years.
Transformative Impact
© 2004
The Next Revolution
Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap
rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors —
general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital
cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
© 2004
Inside a Nanofactory
© 2004
Benefits + Risks
An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction
Networked computers for everyone in the world or
Networked cameras so governments can watch
our every move
Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to
own everything
Rapid invention of wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough
to destabilize any arms race
© 2004
Dangers Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks) Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)
. . . and many more
© 2004
What is Needed Now
Awareness of the issues
Technical research
Policy research
CRNCRN
Thirty Essential Studies
Chris Phoenix, Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA
CRNCRN
Thirty Essential Studies
Chris Phoenix, Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA
© 2004
www.Wise-Nano.org
A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to
build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them.
© 2004
www.CRNano.org