zoonosis and food emerging risks
DESCRIPTION
Development of a new system for a proactive identification, assessment and communication of zoonosis and food emerging risks Emerging risks related to animal health and food safety often create great impact on the health of people, so identify before they manifest is crucial to prevent or minimize them, with this aim we have developed a new system to proactively identify, assess and communicate emerging risks, based on hazard signals horizon scanning, scenario analysis and online communication with stakeholders.TRANSCRIPT
Development of a new system for a proactive identification, assessment and communication of
zoonosis and food emerging risks.
Vicente Martínez1, José Miguel Pinazo1, José María Ferrer1
Conclusions
Background
Methods
Results
1
Emerging risks related to animal health and food safety often create great impact on the health of people, so identify before they manifest is crucial to prevent or minimize them, with this aim we have developed a new system to proactively identify, assess and communicate emerging risks, based on hazard signals horizon scanning, scenario analysis and online communication with stakeholders.
The new system can be used to develop preventive actions against emerging risks, and transfer information to assess risks through its historic risk library.A next step is to identify the key drivers related to the risks, and along the development of foresight scenarios, determine policies and strategic plans to improve the risk management and communication.
Selection o finform ationsources
Selection o finform ationsources
Search andanalyzingsignals
Search andanalyzingsignals
SignalsfilteringSignalsfiltering
Developm entandassessm ent ofscenarios
Developm entandassessm ent ofscenarios
Risk M atrix
•Im pact
•Like liho od
•H o rizo n
Risk M atrix
•Im pact
•Like liho od
•H o rizo n
Informationdatabase
Expertcriteria
Expertconsensus
Signals / issues filtering
Informationdatabase
Expertcriteria
Expertconsensus
Signals / issues filtering
Informationdatabase
Expertcriteria
Expertconsensus
Signals / issues filtering
Developm ent andassessm ent
Scenarios
Horizon•short <1 year•medium 1-5 years•long term >5 years
Impacts (1-5)•Human•economic•environmental
Probability•high: 5•medium: 3•low: 1
Horizon•short <1 year•medium 1-5 years•long term >5 years
Impacts (1-5)•Human•economic•environmental
Probability•high: 5•medium: 3•low: 1
ainia search engine
ainia searchengine
ainia searchengine
IMPO. HORIZONE-01 15 ShortE-02 11 ShortE-03 9 MediumE-04 22 MediumOutbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Food contamination by Cyclospora.New deadly strain of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus (PEDV.)Multi-resistant strains of Brachyspira hyodysenteriae. Swine Dysentery.
Emerging Risk Scenarios
2013 3
months
pilot project
36
sources reviewed
90
raw
signals
47
filtered signals
12
Risk
scenarios
RISK MATRIX 3-2013Spain food sector
E01
EO2E03
E04
0
5
10
15
20
25
SCENARIOS
IMP
OR
TA
NC
E (
imp
act
s X
lik
elih
ood
)