zions bank economic overview · dow breaks 21,000 – the trump bump 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000...
TRANSCRIPT
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ZionsBankEconomicOverview
AssociationofFinancialPlannersofUtah• July20,2017
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National Economic Conditions
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DowBreaks21,000– TheTrumpBump
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
DowReachesNewHeightsFollowingU.S.PresidentialElection
DOW: +18%NASDAQ:+21.5%S&P: +14.9%
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CurrentLevelofConsumerConfidenceIndicatesEconomicProsperity
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
Source:TheConferenceBoard
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BusinessOptimismBoomsPostElection
Source:TradingEconomics,NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex
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Why?
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Thou
sand
sCumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession
Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData
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Thou
sand
s
Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData
CumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession
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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Index
PeriodsfromValueScaledto100
2007Recession 2001Recession 1990Recession1981Recession 1980Recession 1973Recession
SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions
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Trumponomics•RepealandreplacetheAffordableCareAct•Cutcorporateandincometaxes• Increasespendingoninfrastructureandmilitary•Reducegovernmentregulations•Renegotiatetradedeals
•Butcantheygetitdone…?
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JuneJobIndicators
Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 170,000 222,000UnemploymentRate 4.3% 4.4%PrivatePayrolls 164,000 187,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.3% 0.2%
YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.5% 2.6%
LaborForceParticipation 62.8%
Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics
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222,000JobsAddedinJune
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PayrollChangeinth
ousand
s 8.7MillionJobsLost
16 MillionJobsRecovered
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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JobGrowthBoom222,000JobsaddedinJune
126
237225
153
43
297 291
176
249
124
164 155
216232
50
207
152
222
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-1
6
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-1
6
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-1
7
May-17
Jun-17
Thou
sand
sofEmployees
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:June2016toJune2017
0.6% 1.3%
2.0% 2.2%
3.1% 2.0%
-2.1% 0.7%
0.4% 3.1%
7.0%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:1.6%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:June2016toJune2017
13878
314494
624169
-61 180
49206
47
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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UnemploymentRemainsLow
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.0%=FullEmployment
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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UnemploymentandUnderemploymentContinuetoDrop
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
U-6(Underemployed) U-3(Unemployment)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
4.2%
7.1%
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Long-TermUnemploymentDecreasing
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1983 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Milli
ons
of P
erso
ns
Sources:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,Numbersarerounded
June2017:1.7 m
Unemployed for more than 27 weeks
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56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years
June201762.8%
Mar200067.3%
Apr197863.0%
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Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LaborForceParticipationSeeingLittleChange
June:62.8%
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BabyBoomersHeadforRetirement
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38%
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
U.S.ParticipationRate Age55+ShareofWorkingAgePop
U.SLFPR
Percent
Shareof55+
Source:ZionsBankAnalysisofFederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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CivilianLaborForceParticipationRate
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Men Women
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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JobOpeningsOutnumberHires
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LevelinThou
sand
s
Hires Openings
FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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WageGrowthStagnant
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2007– 2017Average2.4%
June20172.5%
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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WagesStagnantEvenAsUnemploymentFalls
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AnnualWageGrowth UnemploymentRate
FullEmployment=5%
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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ProducerPriceIndexontheRise
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year-to-YearChange
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
May2.4%
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GrowthinConsumerSpendingUnderPar
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
PersonalConsumptionExpenditureYearlyPercentChange
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
May1.4%
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ConsumerSpendingDrivesEconomicGrowth
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PersonalConsumption FixedInvestment NetExportsInventories Government RealGDPGrowth
Q12017GDP1.4%
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
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TheU.S.DollarisStrong
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
TradeWeightedU.S.DollarIndex:Broad1973=100
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EurocomparedtoU.S.Dollar
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
PARITY
1.06
1.39
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$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010Chinaallowstheyuantorise
Aug2015China
devaluestheyuanbylargestamountin20years
2001ChinajoinsWTO 2005
Chinaallowstheyuantorise
2008China
stopstheyuan’srise
U.S.DollarComparedtoChineseYuan
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
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BritishPoundDroppedtoNewLowFollowingBrexit Vote
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
BrexitVote
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OilPrices ActiveOilRigs
Source:BakerHughesandU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationNote:Totalcountincludesoilandgasrigs
U.S.TotalRigCountRecoveringfromLowasOilPricesRise
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source:U.S.FederalReserve
FederalFundsTargetRateSees4thIncreaseinOveraDecade
FederalFundsTargetRate=1.25
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March2017FedRateIncreaseProjections
Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve
1.4%
2.1%
3.0% 3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2017 2018 2019 LongRun
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$0.00T
$0.50T
$1.00T
$1.50T
$2.00T
$2.50T
$3.00T
$3.50T
$4.00T
$4.50T
$5.00T
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other
QE1 QE2 QE3Recession
ExplosionintheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheet
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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-1.0%
-0.50%
0.0%
0.50%
1.0%
1.50%
2.0%
2.50%
3.0%20
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
YieldCurveShowingSignsofDistress10-yearminus2-yearspread
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Utah Economic Conditions
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PercentChange:2015to2016U.S.Rate=0.7%
Loss
0.2%to0.6%
1.5%+
0.0%to0.1%
NM0.0%
UT2.0%
AZ1.7%
CA0.7%
NV2.0%
OR1.7%
TX1.6%
OK0.4%
CO1.7%
WA1.8%
ID1.8%
MT1.0%
WY-0.2%
ND0.1%
SD0.9%
MN0.7%
NE0.7%
KS0.3%
IA0.4%
MO0.3%
AR0.3%
LA0.3%
WI0.2%
IL-0.3%
IN0.3%
OH0.1%
FL1.8%
TN 0.9%
KY 0.3%
MS0.0%
AL0.2%
GA1.1%
SC1.4%
NC 1.1%
VA0.5%
WV-0.5%
PA-0.1%
NY0.0%
ME0.2%
AK0.6%
HI0.2%
MA0.4%
VT-0.2%
NH0.4%
RI0.1%
CT-0.2%
NJ0.1%
DE0.8%
MD0.4%
MI0.1%
DC1.6%
KS0.0%
UtahPopulationFastest GrowinginU.S.
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0.7%to1.4%
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-20000-10000 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
0300,000600,000900,000
1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation
34,997
3,051,217
25,412
2017
f20
18f
Sources:U.S.CensusBureau;Datafrom2014onfromStateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup
TotalPop
ulation
ComponentsofPopulationChange
e=estimate,f=forecast
UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange
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UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty
2015to2016StateAverage=2.0%
Box Elder2.2%
Cache2.2%
Rich1.0%
Weber 1.7%
Tooele3.1%
Salt Lake1.5%
Morgan3.1%
Summit2.1%
Daggett -1.4%
Utah3.0%
Wasatch4.7% Duchesne
-2.1% Uintah-3.7%
Juab4.2%
Sanpete2.1%
Carbon-0.2%
Emery-1.3% Grand
0.9%
Millard0.4%
Piute-2.5%
Garfield-0.1%
Sevier1.6%
Wayne0.0%
San Juan7.6%
Iron3.4%
Beaver1.9%
Washington3.1%
Kane3.0%
Davis 1.9%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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UtahEmploymentGrowthHighest intheNation
NM0.9%
UT3.3%
AZ1.8%
CA1.5%
NV2.7%
OR2.4%
TX2.2%
OK0.1%
CO2.4%
WA2.4%
ID2.4%
MT1.6%
WY-1.4%
ND1.1%
SD1.3%
MN1.7%
NE1.2%
KS-0.3%
IA1.0%
MO1.7%
AR1.8%
WI1.4%
IL0.6%
IN1.4%
OH0.8%
FL2.7%
TN 1.9%
KY1.4%
MS0.2%
AL1.8%
GA2.4%
SC1.6%
NC 1.6%
VA1.1%
WV-1.0%
PA0.9%
NY1.6%
ME0.6%
AK-0.9%
HI1.3%
MA1.6%
VT0.5%
NH1.4%
RI1.5%
CT0.7%
NJ1.1%
DE0.9%
MD1.6%
MI1.7%
DC1.4%
1.6%to1.9%
2.0%+
1.0%to1.5%
0.0%to0.9%
PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:May2016toMay2017U.S.Rate=1.6%
Loss
Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics
LA0.5%
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800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,5001995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Thou
sand
sofEmployees
TotalNonfarmEmployment
Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2009
Gainof295,400jobsfromlowin
2009
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,TotalnonfarmseasonallyadjustedNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand
UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighs
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2.3% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1%
5.9% 1.6% 1.6%
3.5% 2.7%
5.6% -8.1%
-13% -8% -3% 2% 7%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2016toMay2017
Total:3.1%
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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5,500800
3,3003,900
11,8001,300
6009,400
3,4005,200
-700
-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:44,500
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2016toMay2017
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyMay2016toMay2017StateRate=3.2%
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices;Notseasonallyadjusted
1.0%to3.2%
0.0%to0.9%
5.0%+
3.3%to4.9%
Loss
Box Elder 3.6% Cache2.0% Rich
-1.2%Weber 1.9%
Tooele5.6%
Salt Lake2.9%
Morgan3.3%
Daggett -7.8%
Utah4.6%
Wasatch5.8% Duchesne
2.1% Uintah-6.0%
Juab2.6%
Sanpete3.3%
Carbon-5.4%
Emery-2.1% Grand
0.9%
Millard1.8%
Piute5.2%
Garfield5.3%
Sevier2.2%
Wayne-2.8%
San Juan0.5%
Iron5.2%
Beaver-2.5%
Washington5.1%
Kane1.8%
Da1is 3.0%
Summit3.3%
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UtahUnemploymentRate10thth LowestintheNation
May2017U.S.Rate=4.3%
HI2.7%
NH2.9%
NM6.6%
UT3.2%
AZ5.1%
CA4.7%
NV4.7%
OR3.6%
TX4.8%
OK4.3%
CO2.3%
WA4.5%
ID3.2%
MT3.9%
WY4.1%
ND2.5%
SD2.9%
MN3.7%
NE2.9%
KS3.7%
IA3.1%
MO3.9%
AR3.2%
LA5.7%
WI3.1%
IL4.6%
IN3.2%
OH4.9%
FL4.3%
TN 4.0%
KY5.0%
MS4.9%
AL4.9%
GA4.9%
SC4.1%
NC 4.5%
VA3.8%
WV4.5%
PA5.0%
NY4.4%
ME3.2%
AK6.6%
MA4.2%
VT3.1%
RI4.1%
CT4.9%
NJ4.1%
DE4.7%
MD4.3%
MI4.2%
DC6.0%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
6.0%+
5.5%to5.9%
4.8%to5.4%
4.0%to4.7%
3.9%orless
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UtahUnemployment
RatesByCounty
May2017
StateRate=3.2%
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
4.0%to5.9%
6.0%to6.9%
3.1%orlower
3.2%to3.9%
7.0%+
Box Elder3.3%
Cache2.8%
Rich3.6%
Tooele3.8%
Morgan2.9%
Summit3.1%
Utah2.9%
Wasatch3.3% Duchesne
5.9% Uintah6.6%
Juab3.1%
Sanpete3.8%
Carbon5.2%
Emery5.4% Grand
5.4%
Millard3.6%
Piute5.4%
Garfield7.8%
Sevier4.0%
Wayne7.9%
San Juan7.4%
Iron4.5%
Beaver4.5%
Washington3.4%
Kane3.3%
Daggett 4.4%Davis3.1%
Salt Lake3.2%
Weber 3.6%
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Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2015–2016U.S.=3.6%;UT=5.6% NH
4.7%
NM2.1%
UT5.6%
AZ4.3%
CA4.5%
NV5.9%
OR4.5%
TX2.9%
OK0.6%
CO3.9%
WA4.8%
ID3.6%
MT2.3%
WY-1.7%
ND-1.5%
SD1.2%
MN3.0%
NE2.8%
KS2.8%
IA2.3%
MO3.5%
AR3.2%
LA1.5%
WI3.1%
IL3.1%
IN3.9%
OH3.0%
FL4.9%
TN 3.9%
KY2.6%
MS3.2%
AL3.3%
GA4.8%
SC4.4%
NC 4.1%
VA3.6%
WV1.0%
PA2.9%
NY2.9%
ME3.7%
AK-1.0%
HI4.5%
MA4.3%
VT3.3%
RI3.1%
CT3.0%
NJ3.2%
DE2.9%
MD3.7%
MI3.6%
DC4.5%
3.6%to3.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%to3.5%
4.0%ormore
0.0%to1.9%Decrease
UTPersonalIncomeGrowth2nd HighestintheNation
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Source:Kem C.GardnerInstituteAnalysisofBEAdata
TenMostDiversifiedEconomiesintheCountry:Hachman Index2015
95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5
OhioPennsylvaniaTennessee
ArizonaCaliforniaMissouriIllinois
NorthCarolinaGeorgia
Utah
Note:AHachman Indexvalueof100meansthatthedistributionofemploymentamongindustriesisexactlythesameasthenation.Thecloserthevalueto100,themorediversethestate’seconomy.
UtahHastheMostDiverseEconomyintheNation
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2015U.S.Rate=13.5%,2015UtahRate=9.3%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
NM19.7%
UT9.3%
AZ17.2%
CA13.9%
NV13.0%
OR11.9%
TX14.7%
OK14.2%
CO9.9%
WA11.4%
ID12.3%
MT11.9%
WY9.8%
ND10.7%
SD13.9%
MN7.8%
NE10.3%
KS14.2%
IA10.4%
MO9.8%
AR16.1%
LA18.6%
WI11.4%
IL10.9%
IN13.5%
OH13.6%
FL16.2%
TN 14.7%
KY19.5%
MS19.1%
AL16.3%
GA18.1%
SC14.3%
NC 15.3%
VA10.9%
WV14.5%
PA12.3%
NY14.2%
ME12.3%
AK9.2%
HI10.9%
MA11.5%
VT10.7%
NH7.3%
RI11.8%
CT9.1%
NJ11.2%
DE11.1%
MD9.6%
MI12.8%
DC16.6%
10.1% to 11.0%11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate)
10.0% or less
13.6% to 16.0%
16.1% or more
UtahPovertyRate5th LowestintheNation
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ConsumerSentimentontheRise
5060708090100110120130
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:118.9ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:115.2
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup
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Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
UnitedStatesCPI:+1.9%
ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+3.3%
ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyGrowthUnitedStatesvs.WasatchFront
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UtahMedianHomeSalePriceSurpassesPre-RecessionHighs
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000$300,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
U.S. Utah
Source:Graphiq.comreportingdatafromCoreLogic
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Source:Graphiq.com
00.20.40.60.81
1.21.41.61.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Percentageoftotalhomesinforeclosureprocess
U.S. Utah
UtahMaintainsLowerPercentageofForeclosuresthanNation
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UtahResidentialConstructionActivityContinuestoRise
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016e
Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total
2017f
Forecast
Source:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,andHISGlobalInsight
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UtahValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016e
2018f
Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total
Forecast
MillionsofD
ollars
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Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights
e=estimatef=forecast
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
RetailSales
HomePrices
PersonalIncome
UnemploymentRate
NonfarmEmployment
Population
2015 2016e 2017f 2018f
UtahEconomicIndicators2015-2018f
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• Nationalandinternationaluncertainty• Continuedlowenergyprices• Trumponomics success?• Depressedbusinessinvestment• Unstableinflationoutlook• Skillsmismatch• Lowproductivitygrowth• OverregulationfromWashington
EconomicNegativesEconomicPositives• Strongconsumerandbusinessconfidence
• Housinggrowth• Trumponomics progrowthagenda• StrongpopulationgrowthintheIntermountainWest
• Utahhasadiversifiedeconomy• Utahjobgrowthbestinthecountry• Utahinflationisstrong
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RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer
Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394
ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.
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