zinc market - teck market.pdffactors that may cause actual results to vary materially include, but...
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Zinc Market
Forward Looking Information
Both these slides and the accompanying oral presentations contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the UnitedStates Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario)and comparable legislation in other provinces (collectively referred to as forward-looking statements). Forward-looking statements involveknown and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Teck to bematerially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Theseforward-looking statements include statements relating to a projected zinc deficit, zinc inventory and pricing projections, smelter productionand capacity projections, potential expansion of the zinc market and consistency and reliability of Red Dog concentrate.
These forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially. Theforward-looking statements in these slides and accompanying oral presentation are based on assumptions including, but not limited to,assumptions about zinc production, zinc use, smelter production and capacity, general business and economic conditions, the accuracy ofour Red Dog reserve estimates and geological results and the future performance of Red Dog. The foregoing list of assumptions is notexhaustive.
Factors that may cause actual results to vary materially include, but are not limited to, changes in commodity and power prices, changes inmarket demand for zinc, acts of foreign governments, inaccurate geological and metallurgical assumptions, inaccurate zinc marketassumptions, unanticipated operational difficulties, and changes or deterioration in general economic conditions.
We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. Further information concerningassumptions, risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements and our business can be found in our most recentAnnual Information Form, as well as subsequent filings of our management’s discussion and analysis of quarterly results, all filed underour profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on EDGAR (www.sec.gov).
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Zinc Market
Producing Concentrates and Custom Zinc Metal
Zinc in concentrate Tailor-made zinc jumbos with galvanized sheet steel
3
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Others China ChangeAntamina GlencoreIndia Dugald RiverNamibia/S.A.
thou
sand
tonn
es c
onta
ined
Source: Teck
Mine Production Growth Insufficient to Balance Market Imported Spot TCs at Historical Lows
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Impo
rted
TC, $
/dm
t
Source: Teck , CNIA, Wood Mac, NBS
Projected Deficit
Zinc Market
Zinc Concentrate Deficit Since 2015
4
Zinc Market
Planned Projects Won’t Meet Long-Term Demand
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mt
Secondary (Net of Smelter Losses)Mine ProductionBase Demand Teck
Zinc Mine Production Peaks in 2020
Existing and Fully Committed Mines
Demand Scenarios• Low Growth (2.3%): 4.3 Mt of uncommitted projects needed by 2025• High Growth (3.0%): 5.2 Mt of uncommitted projects needed by 2025
Source: Teck, Wood Mackenzie
0
1
2
3
4
5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mehdiabad Ozernoe KipushiSelwyn Tala Hamza CitronenPavlovskoye Dairi Shalkiya RestartAripuana Buenavista KorbalikhinskyWoodlawn Asmara Other Small <50kmt
Uncommitted Projects Insufficient
Mt
5
Monthly Chinese Mined Zinc Production
Zinc Market
Chinese Mined Zinc Production at 5-Year Low
Source: CNIA
Down 11% m/m in July 2017 & down 6% y/y YTD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-
06Ju
n-06
Nov
-06
Apr-0
7Se
p-07
Feb-
08Ju
l-08
Dec
-08
May
-09
Oct
-09
Mar
-10
Aug-
10Ja
n-11
Jun-
11N
ov-1
1Ap
r-12
Sep-
12Fe
b-13
Jul-1
3D
ec-1
3M
ay-1
4O
ct-1
4M
ar-1
5Au
g-15
Jan-
16Ju
n-16
Nov
-16
Apr-1
7
Thou
sand
s D
MT
Plotted to July 2017
6
Environmental/Safety Inspections Constraining Zinc Mine Production
Source: Antaike, BGRIMM, Teck
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
kt
Jan-May 2013 Jan-May 2014Jan-May 2015 Jan-May 2016Jan-May 2017
Estimated Mine Growth Rarely Achieved
Zinc Market
Limited Chinese Response to Higher Prices
Source: CNIA/NBS
100
350270
180
300360
200
-630
60150
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
kt
Early-year estimate Year end estimate
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-
13M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Source: China Customs
Zinc
con
tain
ed th
ou M
t
• Massive destocking in 2016• Year-to-date to June 2017, stocks risen 35% • Concentrate inventories currently at historic lows
Chinese Zinc Concentrate Imports
Zinc Market
Chinese Concentrate Imports Below Previous Highs
8
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan-
13M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Zinc
con
tain
ed th
ou M
t
Source: NBS/CNIA
• Down 2% y/y YTD July – Down 6% MoM• Cuts to Chinese refined production March-June (~100-170 kmt)• Improvement in spot TCs has improved Chinese smelter profitability• Expect concentrate stock draw down as winter inventory not built
Chinese Smelter Production
Zinc Market
Chinese Smelter Production Constrained
9
Zinc Market
Chinese Zinc Smelter Cut in 1H 2017
Source: SMM
Smelter Utilization Rates Declining
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-
12
Jun-
12
Nov
-12
Apr
-13
Sep
-13
Feb-
14
Jul-1
4
Dec
-14
May
-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Aug
-16
Jan-
17
%
Overall smelter utilization rateLarge smelters (>200kt)Medium-sized smelters (100-200kt)Small smelters (20-100kt)
Demand for Zinc Metal Imports Increasing
754 1,131 1,201 1,295 1,237
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
kt
China zinc production Demand for imports
Source: Antaike, BGRIMM, Teck
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Zinc Market
China is Important to the Zinc Market
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
MineProduction
SmelterProduction
Demand
kt
China Europe N.America ROW
Supply• 40% of global mine production• 45% of global smelter production• 32% of global coated sheet production
‒ Grew from 20% in 2010
Demand• 48% of global refined demand
China Has a Significant Impact Globally
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0¢
20¢
40¢
60¢
80¢
100¢
120¢
140¢
160¢
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
LME Stocks SHFE Price
Zinc Market
Metal Inventories Close to Historical Lows
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0¢
50¢
100¢
150¢
200¢
250¢
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
LME Stocks SHFE Price
US¢
/lb
Plotted to September 8, 2017
Source: LME/SHFE
• Below 2005/2006 levels, with LME and SHFE down 259 kt in 2017• SHFE down 130 kt since March peak• Price is now reacting • May be more hidden stocks available, with some enroute to Asia
Daily Zinc Prices & Stocks
Stoc
ks
12
• 94% of LME stocks in New Orleans (NOLA)
• LME metal is slab zinc– 70% of US demand is from steel mills
demanding customized jumbos
• Majority of NOLA zinc is:– European origin – Duty unpaid (1.2%): 1.6¢ premium on
$3,000/t zinc
• Majority of zinc from ~2008-2010– Concerns about condition– Has white rust, which causes high dross
• Customers rejecting NOLA material
Zinc Market
Available LME Stocks Almost Exhausted
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Available Cancelled
Cancelled stocks unavailable for lending/borrowing on LME contracts
NOLA Cancelled Metal
13
Zinc Market
Pinch Point Reached
0¢
50¢
100¢
150¢
200¢
250¢
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Jan 2014 Jan 2013
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
20032004
2006
2007
2005
Mar 2017
Days of stocks
September 7, 2017
2013 to 2017
2003 to 2007
US¢
/lb
Data plotted from 2000 to September 7, 2017Source: LME, SHFE, Wood Mackenzie
Zinc Prices vs. Days of Reported Stocks
14
Zinc Market
Defending / Expanding Zinc Market
Giga SteelUltrahigh-strength & galvanizable competes
well with aluminum.
Source: IZA, New York State Thruway Authority, Zinc.org
Continuous Galvanized RebarHigh productivity process which enables coated rebar to be shaped in the field.
Zinc Thermal SprayPortable technology to spray molten zinc
onto a steel surface .
Zinc Micro-Nutrient FertilizerZinc micronutrient in fertilizer well accepted
and growing market.
15
Zinc Market
Red Dog Seasonality
• Operates 12 months
• Ships ~ 4 months
• Shipments to inventory in Canada and Europe; Direct sales to Asia
• ~65% of zinc sales in second half of year
• ~100% of lead sales in second half of year
21%
14%
31%34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Zinc Sales1
0% 1%
55%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Lead Sales1
1. Average of 2010 to 2016.16
Zinc Market
Attractive Red Dog Concentrate Quality
• Low iron• Base feed for our customers• Good zinc grade• Low precious metal content
(silver value: ~$15/dmt)
• High zinc content; by-products valued in China
• Low precious metal content (silver value: ~$250/dmt)
Consistent, Reliable Supply of Zinc Concentrate Clean Lead Concentrate
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Zinc Market
Red Dog Zinc Concentrate Sales Distribution Shows Consistency
Asia33%
Canada30%
Europe37%
2016
Asia28%
Canada26%
Europe46%
2000
18
Zinc Market
Red Dog Lead Sales Distribution Reflects Market Evolution
Asia48%
Europe52%
2000
Asia97%
Canada3%
2016
19
Zinc Market
Trail Refined Metal SalesPrimarily the United States
United States84%
Asia10%
Canada6%
Zinc
United States98%
Asia & Other2%
Lead
20
• The “Zinc Gap”: outlook is for a strong market
• Red Dog zinc concentrate customer base stable
• Red Dog zinc concentrate quality is a base feed for our customers
• Red Dog lead concentrate quality favorable in China, the largest market
Zinc Market
Summary
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