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22
Zinc Market September 19, 2017 Andrew Stonkus, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Logistics

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Zinc MarketSeptember 19, 2017Andrew Stonkus, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Logistics

Zinc Market

Forward Looking Information

Both these slides and the accompanying oral presentations contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the UnitedStates Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario)and comparable legislation in other provinces (collectively referred to as forward-looking statements). Forward-looking statements involveknown and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Teck to bematerially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Theseforward-looking statements include statements relating to a projected zinc deficit, zinc inventory and pricing projections, smelter productionand capacity projections, potential expansion of the zinc market and consistency and reliability of Red Dog concentrate.

These forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially. Theforward-looking statements in these slides and accompanying oral presentation are based on assumptions including, but not limited to,assumptions about zinc production, zinc use, smelter production and capacity, general business and economic conditions, the accuracy ofour Red Dog reserve estimates and geological results and the future performance of Red Dog. The foregoing list of assumptions is notexhaustive.

Factors that may cause actual results to vary materially include, but are not limited to, changes in commodity and power prices, changes inmarket demand for zinc, acts of foreign governments, inaccurate geological and metallurgical assumptions, inaccurate zinc marketassumptions, unanticipated operational difficulties, and changes or deterioration in general economic conditions.

We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. Further information concerningassumptions, risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements and our business can be found in our most recentAnnual Information Form, as well as subsequent filings of our management’s discussion and analysis of quarterly results, all filed underour profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on EDGAR (www.sec.gov).

2

Zinc Market

Producing Concentrates and Custom Zinc Metal

Zinc in concentrate Tailor-made zinc jumbos with galvanized sheet steel

3

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Others China ChangeAntamina GlencoreIndia Dugald RiverNamibia/S.A.

thou

sand

tonn

es c

onta

ined

Source: Teck

Mine Production Growth Insufficient to Balance Market Imported Spot TCs at Historical Lows

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Impo

rted

TC, $

/dm

t

Source: Teck , CNIA, Wood Mac, NBS

Projected Deficit

Zinc Market

Zinc Concentrate Deficit Since 2015

4

Zinc Market

Planned Projects Won’t Meet Long-Term Demand

8

10

12

14

16

18

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mt

Secondary (Net of Smelter Losses)Mine ProductionBase Demand Teck

Zinc Mine Production Peaks in 2020

Existing and Fully Committed Mines

Demand Scenarios• Low Growth (2.3%): 4.3 Mt of uncommitted projects needed by 2025• High Growth (3.0%): 5.2 Mt of uncommitted projects needed by 2025

Source: Teck, Wood Mackenzie

0

1

2

3

4

5

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mehdiabad Ozernoe KipushiSelwyn Tala Hamza CitronenPavlovskoye Dairi Shalkiya RestartAripuana Buenavista KorbalikhinskyWoodlawn Asmara Other Small <50kmt

Uncommitted Projects Insufficient

Mt

5

Monthly Chinese Mined Zinc Production

Zinc Market

Chinese Mined Zinc Production at 5-Year Low

Source: CNIA

Down 11% m/m in July 2017 & down 6% y/y YTD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

Apr-0

7Se

p-07

Feb-

08Ju

l-08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Aug-

10Ja

n-11

Jun-

11N

ov-1

1Ap

r-12

Sep-

12Fe

b-13

Jul-1

3D

ec-1

3M

ay-1

4O

ct-1

4M

ar-1

5Au

g-15

Jan-

16Ju

n-16

Nov

-16

Apr-1

7

Thou

sand

s D

MT

Plotted to July 2017

6

Environmental/Safety Inspections Constraining Zinc Mine Production

Source: Antaike, BGRIMM, Teck

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

kt

Jan-May 2013 Jan-May 2014Jan-May 2015 Jan-May 2016Jan-May 2017

Estimated Mine Growth Rarely Achieved

Zinc Market

Limited Chinese Response to Higher Prices

Source: CNIA/NBS

100

350270

180

300360

200

-630

60150

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

kt

Early-year estimate Year end estimate

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14M

ar-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17M

ar-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

l-17

Source: China Customs

Zinc

con

tain

ed th

ou M

t

• Massive destocking in 2016• Year-to-date to June 2017, stocks risen 35% • Concentrate inventories currently at historic lows

Chinese Zinc Concentrate Imports

Zinc Market

Chinese Concentrate Imports Below Previous Highs

8

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14M

ar-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17M

ar-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

l-17

Zinc

con

tain

ed th

ou M

t

Source: NBS/CNIA

• Down 2% y/y YTD July – Down 6% MoM• Cuts to Chinese refined production March-June (~100-170 kmt)• Improvement in spot TCs has improved Chinese smelter profitability• Expect concentrate stock draw down as winter inventory not built

Chinese Smelter Production

Zinc Market

Chinese Smelter Production Constrained

9

Zinc Market

Chinese Zinc Smelter Cut in 1H 2017

Source: SMM

Smelter Utilization Rates Declining

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

12

Jun-

12

Nov

-12

Apr

-13

Sep

-13

Feb-

14

Jul-1

4

Dec

-14

May

-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Aug

-16

Jan-

17

%

Overall smelter utilization rateLarge smelters (>200kt)Medium-sized smelters (100-200kt)Small smelters (20-100kt)

Demand for Zinc Metal Imports Increasing

754 1,131 1,201 1,295 1,237

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

kt

China zinc production Demand for imports

Source: Antaike, BGRIMM, Teck

10

Zinc Market

China is Important to the Zinc Market

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

MineProduction

SmelterProduction

Demand

kt

China Europe N.America ROW

Supply• 40% of global mine production• 45% of global smelter production• 32% of global coated sheet production

‒ Grew from 20% in 2010

Demand• 48% of global refined demand

China Has a Significant Impact Globally

11

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

20¢

40¢

60¢

80¢

100¢

120¢

140¢

160¢

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

LME Stocks SHFE Price

Zinc Market

Metal Inventories Close to Historical Lows

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

50¢

100¢

150¢

200¢

250¢

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

LME Stocks SHFE Price

US¢

/lb

Plotted to September 8, 2017

Source: LME/SHFE

• Below 2005/2006 levels, with LME and SHFE down 259 kt in 2017• SHFE down 130 kt since March peak• Price is now reacting • May be more hidden stocks available, with some enroute to Asia

Daily Zinc Prices & Stocks

Stoc

ks

12

• 94% of LME stocks in New Orleans (NOLA)

• LME metal is slab zinc– 70% of US demand is from steel mills

demanding customized jumbos

• Majority of NOLA zinc is:– European origin – Duty unpaid (1.2%): 1.6¢ premium on

$3,000/t zinc

• Majority of zinc from ~2008-2010– Concerns about condition– Has white rust, which causes high dross

• Customers rejecting NOLA material

Zinc Market

Available LME Stocks Almost Exhausted

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Available Cancelled

Cancelled stocks unavailable for lending/borrowing on LME contracts

NOLA Cancelled Metal

13

Zinc Market

Pinch Point Reached

50¢

100¢

150¢

200¢

250¢

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Jan 2014 Jan 2013

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

20032004

2006

2007

2005

Mar 2017

Days of stocks

September 7, 2017

2013 to 2017

2003 to 2007

US¢

/lb

Data plotted from 2000 to September 7, 2017Source: LME, SHFE, Wood Mackenzie

Zinc Prices vs. Days of Reported Stocks

14

Zinc Market

Defending / Expanding Zinc Market

Giga SteelUltrahigh-strength & galvanizable competes

well with aluminum.

Source: IZA, New York State Thruway Authority, Zinc.org

Continuous Galvanized RebarHigh productivity process which enables coated rebar to be shaped in the field.

Zinc Thermal SprayPortable technology to spray molten zinc

onto a steel surface .

Zinc Micro-Nutrient FertilizerZinc micronutrient in fertilizer well accepted

and growing market.

15

Zinc Market

Red Dog Seasonality

• Operates 12 months

• Ships ~ 4 months

• Shipments to inventory in Canada and Europe; Direct sales to Asia

• ~65% of zinc sales in second half of year

• ~100% of lead sales in second half of year

21%

14%

31%34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Zinc Sales1

0% 1%

55%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Lead Sales1

1. Average of 2010 to 2016.16

Zinc Market

Attractive Red Dog Concentrate Quality

• Low iron• Base feed for our customers• Good zinc grade• Low precious metal content

(silver value: ~$15/dmt)

• High zinc content; by-products valued in China

• Low precious metal content (silver value: ~$250/dmt)

Consistent, Reliable Supply of Zinc Concentrate Clean Lead Concentrate

17

Zinc Market

Red Dog Zinc Concentrate Sales Distribution Shows Consistency

Asia33%

Canada30%

Europe37%

2016

Asia28%

Canada26%

Europe46%

2000

18

Zinc Market

Red Dog Lead Sales Distribution Reflects Market Evolution

Asia48%

Europe52%

2000

Asia97%

Canada3%

2016

19

Zinc Market

Trail Refined Metal SalesPrimarily the United States

United States84%

Asia10%

Canada6%

Zinc

United States98%

Asia & Other2%

Lead

20

• The “Zinc Gap”: outlook is for a strong market

• Red Dog zinc concentrate customer base stable

• Red Dog zinc concentrate quality is a base feed for our customers

• Red Dog lead concentrate quality favorable in China, the largest market

Zinc Market

Summary

21

Zinc MarketSeptember 19, 2017Andrew Stonkus, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Logistics