zero carbon: implications and issues malcolm bell buildings, energy and sustainability group, school...
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Zero Carbon: Implications and Issues
Malcolm BellBuildings, Energy and Sustainability Group, School of the Built
Environment, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds, UK.
Paper presented to: Towards Zero Carbon Homes
5 July 2007, Milton Keynes, UK.
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Towards Zero Carbon
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
TER 2006 2010 2013 2016
Year
Per
centa
ge
25%
44%
-49%
Zero Carbon
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Towards Zero Carbon
0
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TER 2006 2010 2013 2016Standard
CO
2 (k
g/a
)
Gas
Electricity
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Compliance packages:Zero Carbon
80m2 Semidetached or end terraced 2 storey house
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0.0
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35.0
Gas Electricity Wood pellets
Fuel
TE
R (kgC
O2/m
2a
Lighting
Fans & pumps
Water heating
Space heating
Base Case - TER Gas Electricity
Roof (U - W/m2K) 0.16 0.16
Wall (U - W/m2K) 0.30 0.2
Ground Floor (U - W/m2K) 0.22 0.2
Doors & Windows (U - W/m2K) 1.80 1.3
Thermal bridging allowance (y) 0.08 0.08
Airtightness (m/h) 7 5
Ventilation Natural Natural
Space and Water 86% 100%
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-25.0
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Gas Electricity Wood pellets
Fuel
TER
Space heating Water heating
Fans & pumps LightingAppliances Renewables
Zero Carbon (TER of -135% to -150%)
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Zero Carbon (TER of -135% to -150%)
Gas Electricity Wood pellets
Roof (U - W/m2K) 0.08 0.08 0.08
Wall (U - W/m2K) 0.10 0.1 0.1
Ground Floor (U - W/m2K) 0.09 0.09 0.09
Doors & Windows (U - W/m2K) 0.70 0.7 0.7
Thermal bridging allowance (y) 0.02 0.02 0.02
Airtightness (m/h) 0.5 0.5 5
Ventilation MVHR MVHR Natural
Space and Water 93% GsHP 320% 67%
Low Energy Lighting 100% 100% 100%
Area of solar collector (m2 approx 1360 kWh/a) 10 10 10
Photovoltaic panels (m2 aprox. 2,250 kWh/a) 25 25.0 25.0
Other renewbles - net energy (kWh/a) 1,800 1,100 600
Total renewables 5,410 4,710 4,210
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Passive House Standards
Source: Wall (2006), Photo: Hans Eek
Timber frame scheme Göteborg, Sweden (120 m2)
Airtightness 1 m/h
MVHR – 80% with duct heaters
5m2 Solar water + resistance top-up
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Passive House Standards
Source: Wall (2006), Photo: Hans Eek
Timber frame scheme Göteborg, Sweden, 120 m2
Source: Wall (2006), Energy and Buildings. 38, pp 627-634
TER (kgCO2/m2)
Design ≈ 10.6Actual ≈ 15.3Under Swedish conditions!
5,868 kWh
6,420 kWh
Total energy = 8,160 kWh/a
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Implications and issues
• Lights and appliances represent between 60% and 70% of carbon emissions.
• Over 5,000 kWh/a may need to be generated by zero carbon sources. (more for larger houses)
• What chance at the level of the dwelling?
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Solar thermal?
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Solar thermal?
Solar thrmal output - 80m2 semi detached
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1600
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Panel Area (m2)
Ener
gy
(kW
h/a
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Micro wind?
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Micro wind?
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Micro wind?Manufacturer’s general claims:
1.5 kW (max at 12.5 m/s)
Annual energy generated - 2,000 - 3,000 kWhs – depending on position and location.
Carbon displacement – 1.3 tonnes (30% utilisation)
Location:
Average wind speed (DTI database) = 5.1 m/s @ 10m
Energy – 1,473 kWhs
But what about shelter from trees and other buildings?
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Micro wind?
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
wind speed reduction factor (mean speed = 5.1 m/s)
Ener
gy
outp
ut (k
Wh/a
)
4 m/s
3 m/s
5.1 m/s
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Photovoltaic panels
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Cost and scale
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Cost and scale• Wind
– small scale – 17 p/kWh– large scale – 4 p/kWh
• PV– Small scale – 55 p/kWh– large scale – 23 p/kWh
• Solar thermal– small scale – 9 p/kWh– large scale – 7 p/kWh
preliminary calculations – Barrett 2007
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Biomass?
Biomass in a 2006 dwelling!
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Gas Electricity Wood pellets
Fuel
TE
R (kg
CO
2/m
2a
Appliances
Lighting
Fans & pumps
Water heating
Space heating
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Biomass?
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Gas Electricity Wood pellets
Fuel
TER
Space heating Water heating
Fans & pumps LightingAppliances Renewables
Biomass in a 2016 dwelling
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So what, so far ? • Site based generation is problematic.• Solar thermal - useful demand reduction
• Wind is likely to be cheaper and more effective at large scale
• Biomass may have limited value in CHP but no panacea and an important strategic resource
• Need to link new building to strategic renewable provision.
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So what for the industry?
Source: Wall (2006), Photo: Hans Eek
Focus attention on as low an energy/carbon demand as possible
Deal with generation in a strategic way
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But! Does new housing do what it says on the
tin?
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Notional – v – Real heat loss
Plot No.
Predicted Fabric Heat Loss (W/K)
Predicted Ventilation Heat Loss (W/K)
Predicted Total Heat Loss (W/K)
Measured Heat Loss (W/K)
Measured Heat Loss - Adjusted for Solar Gain (W/K)
13 50.6 13.2 63.8 105.4 111.7
402 54.9 20.3 75.2 136.3 153.4
+75%
+104%
The question is: Why?
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Thermal bridges
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Thermal bridging & construction Designed performance is almost always degraded
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Timber fraction and insulation
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Airtightness is improving?
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Permeability Range (m/h @ 50Pa)
Pro
ba
bil
ity
Stamford Brook Data
EST 99 Dwelling Dataset
Passive house Stamford Brook mean EST 99 mean
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Sequencing and process
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Hidden leakage
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A culture of detailed planning?
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A culture of detailed planning?
Build – Destroy – Install – Repair
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Understanding complex heat loss paths
Party wall heat bypass
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Potential CO2 savings
From New Housing built in One Year (~190,000 units)
18,000 tCO2/a
From Existing Stock (built between 1965 and 2006)
694,000 tCO2/a
Assumes Party Wall U Value = 0.5Assumes 10% semi, 20% terrace in stock and new buildCalculations for semis and terraces only – no estimate for apartments
Fabric heat loss is between 40% and 50% greater than currently estimated. Eliminating the bypass would produce large actual CO2 savings
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We have been rumbled!
This time customers will notice!
As very low and zero carbon becomes mandatory small things will matter
This time building control will notice!
We cannot hide behind flawed assumptions
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The industry must change!
• It has been said before
• But the more it changes the more it
remains the same
• Old problems persist!
• It is time to retool, to retool cultures and
processes as well as technology.
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What will change look like?• A fully managed process – inception,
design, construction and support in use.
• Performance will have to be guaranteed.
• A quality control process based on measurement not assumption
• Re-engineering of processes as well as technology will bring economies!
• Constant feedback will bring constant improvement.
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So what does zero carbon mean?
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The world will not be the same!
Thomas Kuhn
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
We are entering a new paradigm
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So what does zero carbon mean?
As in science, so in construction:
It is time for the industry to Retool!