za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija ... · mala dvorana “vatroslav lisinski” /...

21. Forum Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –

21st Forum Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia – 1

CROATIAN ENERGY SOCIETY

21. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ

21st FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA

Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –

Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050

– reality or utopia –

23. studenog 2012. / 23rd November 2012

Mala dvorana “Vatroslav Lisinski” / Small Hall “Vatroslav Lisinski” Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4



Izdavač / Publisher: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Zagreb, Savska cesta 163 Priredili / Edit by: Dr. sc. Goran Granić Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor: Dr.sc. Branka Jelavić Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor: Mr.sc. Sandra Antešević Bruno Židov, mag.ing.mech. Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design: Martina Komerički Košarić, dipl.ing. Pripremio za tisak / Prepress: Darko Juričić, dipl.diz. Lektura / Language editing: Prof. Anita Filipović Engleski prijevodi / English translation: Bruno Židov, mag.ing.mech. Tisak / Press: AZP-Grafis Samobor, Franjina 7 Autorska prava / Copyright: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Zagreb, Savska cesta 163 Naklada / Edition: 250 primjeraka Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles.



Sadržaj / Contents PREDGOVOR / FOREWORD ......................................................................................6

ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE .................. 11

1. Goran Granić .............................................................................................. 13

2. Reinhard Jellinek ........................................................................................ 14

3. Paolo Blecich .............................................................................................. 15

4. Bernard Franković ...................................................................................... 16

5. Zoran Kordić .............................................................................................. 17

6. Ben Bartle ................................................................................................... 18

7. Robert Pašičko ............................................................................................ 18

8. Lin Herenčić ............................................................................................... 19

9. Sandra Vlašić .............................................................................................. 20

10. Neven Duić ................................................................................................ 21

11. Dubravko Sabolić ....................................................................................... 22

12. Bojan Baletić .............................................................................................. 23

13. Jakov Baleta ............................................................................................... 24

14. Tomislav Ćutić ........................................................................................... 24

15. Vladimir Potočnik ...................................................................................... 25

SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS ........................................................ 28

1. Dr.sc. Goran Granić i suradnici: Razvoj energetskog sektora Republike Hrvatske do

2050. godine u uvjetima smanjenja emisije ugljikovog dioksida / Development of the

Croatian energy sector by 2050 in terms of reducing carbon dioxide emissions ........ 29



2. Reinhard Jellinek: Pravila za ubrzavanje goriva, tehnologije i promjene ponašanja u

prometu - rezultati i uspjesi Austrian klima: aktiv mobil programa nakon prvih sedam

godina / Policies to accelerate fuel, technology & behavioural change in transport -

results and successes of the Austrian klima:aktiv mobil programme after the first

seven years ................................................................................................................. 31

3. Peter Kaderjak: Dekarbonizacija mađarskog električnog i toplinskog sektora: što je

najmanje nemoguće? / Decarbonising the Hungarian electricity and heat sectors: what

is the least impossible? ............................................................................................... 34

4. Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković: Ususret budućnosti bez emisija CO2 / Towards a

CO2 – free future ........................................................................................................ 35

5. Zoran Kordi ć, Robert Pašičko, Sandra Vlašić, Lin Herenčić, Ben Bartle: Izrada

Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja Hrvatske / Making of Croatian low-emission

development strategy ................................................................................................. 37

6. Neven Duić, Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel,

Iva Ridjan : Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i

smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja „zelene ekonomije” u

Hrvatskoj do 2050./ Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Efficiency and Reduction of

Greenhouse Gas Emissions as main sources of Development of „Green Economy“ in

Croatia until 2050 ...................................................................................................... 39

7. Dubravko Sabolić: Ekonomska pitanja u vezi dekarbonizacije elektroenergetskog

sustava / Economic issues in power system decarbonization ..................................... 41

8. Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić, Prof.dr.sc. Mladen Josić, Velimir Toli ć: Kampus

Borongaj: CO2 izazov za Sveučilište / Campus Borongaj: A CO2 challenge for the

University................................................................................................................... 43

9. Tomislav Ćutić, Jakov Baleta, Josip Pasanec, Vladimir Soldo, Tonko Ćurko :

Smanjenje potrošnje električne energije i emisije CO2 sustava za pripremu potrošne

tople vode primjenom solarne dizalice topline s direktnim isparivanjem radne tvari /

Reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in domestic water heating by

means of direct expansion solar assisted heat pump .................................................. 45



10. Tomo Galić, Željko Tomšić: Virtualne elektrane kao model za konkurentnost malih

proizvođača i operatora virtualne elektrane na tržištima električne energije i plina /

Virtual power plants as a model for the competitiveness of small manufacturers and

operators of virtual power plants in markets for electricity and gas ........................... 47

11. Vladimir Potočnik : Dekarbonizacija hrvatske energetike / Decarbonization of

croatian energy system ............................................................................................... 49



PREDGOVOR

U proteklih nekoliko godina poslovna, znanstvena i stručna javnost zaokupljena je temom smanjenja emisija CO2 i drugih stakleničkih plinova, kao i tehničkim i financijskim posljedicama na razvoj energetskog sustava. U sjeni neuspješnih međunarodnih pregovora o mjerama koje trebaju poduzeti sve članice međunarodne zajednice, Europska unija utvrđuje svoje ciljeve koji će biti meritorni i za Hrvatsku kao buduću članicu EU-a.

Ciljevi EU-a do 2020. godine, poznati po marketinškoj poruci 20/20/20%, u određenoj mjeri zamagljuju razinu promjena u energetskom sektoru koje bi trebalo provesti, ako bi se postavili ciljevi smanjenja CO2 do 2050. godine u iznosu od najmanje 80 posto i u elektroenergetici od 95 posto. Polazni ciljevi energetske politike za 2020. godinu ne ukazuju na dramatičnost promjena u energetskom sektoru za ostvarivanje ciljeva do 2050. godine. Iz tog razloga je NUŽNO što prije strateški sagledati razdoblje do 2050. godine, kako bi se mogla postaviti cjelovita gospodarska, znanstvena i energetska politika svake pojedine zemlje. Izbor teme ovogodišnjeg Foruma imao je cilj potaknuti raspravu o strateškim ciljevima za 2050. godinu te ukazati na nužnost izrade strateških dokumenata energetskog razvoja.

Na stručnim skupovima energetske zajednice Europe u posljednje vrijeme zamijećen je nesklad između političkih ciljeva i sagledavanja energetskih stručnjaka o mogućnostima i promjenama u energetskom sektoru. Pitanja integracije obnovljivih izvora, tehničko-tehnoloških i troškovnih, zaokuplja pozornost operatora prijenosnih sustava i nadležnih ministarstava. S povećanjem udjela rastu i problemi.

Razina integracije obnovljivih izvora u uskoj je vezi s mogućnostima i troškovima proizvodnje energije u klasičnim elektranama, fosilnim ili nuklearnim, što može loše utjecati na realizaciju cijelog projekta smanjenja CO2, ako se iz bilo kojih razloga onemogući izgradnja ili rad zamjenskih kapaciteta.

Također u uskoj vezi je i tema odnosa povlaštene proizvodnje iz obnovljivih izvora i ostalog dijela tržišta električne energije. Već sada je vidljivo da je povlaštenost dugoročno neodrživa i da se trebaju tražiti tržišni mehanizmi koji će osigurati samoregulirajuće odnose na ekonomskim principima, uključujući i cijenu troškova za zaštitu okoliša i očuvanje klime.

Pojedinačni problemi u zemljama članicama EU-a pokazuju da to nije moguće riješiti na nacionalnoj razini, već da se ono treba tražiti na razini EU-a ili cijele Europe.



Vjerujem da će Forum potaknuti stručne rasprave koje će pomoći u razumijevanju vremena koje dolazi, a jednako tako i ukazati na važnost izrade strateških dokumenata razvoja energetskog sektora do 2050. godine. Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva, Dr.sc. Goran Granić



FOREWORD In the past few years, business, scientific and professional community is occupied with the theme of reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, features, technical and financial consequences on the development of the energy system. In the shadow of failed international negotiations on measures, which should be taken by all members of the international community, the European Union sets its goals, which will be merit for Croatia as a future member of the EU.

The objectives of the EU by the year 2020, well known by the marketing message 20/20/20%, to some extent obscures the level of changes in the energy sector, which should be obtained, if the goal of reducing CO2 emissions by the year 2050 in an amount of at least 80% and in the power sector in an amount of 95% would be set. Transient energy policy objectives for the year 2020 do not indicate the dramatic change in the energy sector to meet the goals in the year 2050. For this reason it is necessary, as soon as possible, strategic perceive the period until the year 2050, in order to set up a complete economic, scientific and energy policies in each country. The choice of this year's Forum theme, have the aim of encouraging the debate on the strategic objectives for the year 2050, and to approach to the elaboration of a strategic document energy development as soon as possible.

At professional conferences in the energy community in the Europe, recently have been shown that there is a mismatch between political goals and views of energy experts on the opportunities and changes in the energy sector. Questions of integration of renewable energy sources, technical and technological and cost, are attracting the attention of transmission system operators and the competent ministries. With increasing of a share, the problems grow.

The level of integration of renewable energy sources is highly correlated with the capabilities and costs of producing energy in conventional power plants, fossil or nuclear, which can make the entire project of reducing the CO2 less feasible, if for any reason, the construction or operation of alternative capacity is prevented.

Also, closely related is the theme of privileged relations of production from renewable sources and the rest of the electricity market. It is already apparent that the privilege is long term unsustainable and that they should seek mechanisms to ensure self-regulating relations on economic principles, including the price of the cost of protecting the environment and preserving the environment.



Individual problems in the EU member states shows that it is not possible to find the solution at the national level, but that a solution should be sought at the level of the EU or the whole Europe.

I believe that the Forum will encourage professional debate that will help in understanding the future, but equally in the development of strategic documents for the development of the energy sector by the year 2050. Chairman of the Croatian Energy Society, Goran Granić, PhD



ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVA ČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE



Goran Granić

Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia

Education:

B.Sc. (Eng.) in 1972, M.Sc. (Eng.) in 1976 and Ph.D. in

1979; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing,

University of Zagreb.

Employment:

Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Director (1994 – 2000 and

2004 – present),

Government of the Republic of Croatia, Deputy Prime

Minister (2000 – 2003),

Croatian Electric Utility Company, General Manager (1990 – 1991),

Union of Croatian Electric Utilities, Member of the Management Board (1987 –

1990),

Other:

Member of Parliament of the Republic of Croatia since 1992, Vice-President of

Parliament (1995);

More than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning;

President of the Croatian Energy Society and Member of the other expert

organizations;

Associate member and Secretary-General of the HATZ (Croatian Technical

Academy). Institute for the Electric Industry (1973 – 1987 and 1991 – 1994).



Reinhard Jellinek

Reinhard Jellinek has been with Austrian Energy Agency

for 14 years and is mainly working in the fields of

consumer behaviour and all transport related issues. He is

currently coordinating the Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE)

project ECOWILL (Ecodriving – Widespread

Implementation for Learners and Licensed Drivers) with 15

partners of 13 European countries. Mr Jellinek is also

involved in the Austrian Ecodriving initiative. He has been

project manager of the IEE-projects FLEAT (Fleet Environmental Action and

assessment) and MADEGASCAR (Market development for Gas Driven Cars) and

several other projects aiming on behavioural changes. Since 2003 he has been the

project manager of phases VIII – XI of the IEE project " Monitoring of EU and

national energy efficiency targets (ODYSSEE-MURE)". In addition to the

management of various projects at national level, he has been involved in the

klima:aktiv mobil programme since 2007. Furthermore, he acted as a delegate to the

inter-ministerial working group for the national implementation plan for e-mobility in

Austria. Mr Jellinek holds a master's degree in Psychology from the University of

Vienna.



Paolo Blecich

Paolo Blecich (M.Eng.) is employed as a research assistant

at the Institute for Thermodynamics and Energy at the

Technical University of Rijeka. During university studies

he was awarded with the Dean's Award four times and

with one Rector's Award for achievement in the study. He

was also awarded with the Annual Prize (2009) of

Croatian Energy Association for notable achievements in

the area of energy.

His research work is focused on the study of heat transfer, mass transfer and heat

exchangers using numerical methods and laboratory measurements of renewable

energy sources, with a special interest in the application of solar energy and

environmental protection. Within postgraduate studies he spent a summer semester in

the years 2011/2012 at the Institute of Technology construction - National Research

Council (ITC-CNR) in Padua, Italy. At the Faculty of Engineering, University of

Rijeka he holds exercises at the undergraduate and graduate studies in the courses:

Thermodynamics 1, Thermodynamics 2, Thermodynamics of mixtures, heat

exchangers, laboratory exercises. He is the author or co-author of 17 scientific and

professional papers of which 2 papers published in CC journals.



Bernard Frankovi ć

Bernard Franković (born in 1946 in Rijeka), graduated in

year 1971 Mechanical Engineering at Faculty of

Engineering Rijeka. He earned his master's degree in year

1978 at the Faculty of Engineering and Naval Architecture,

University of Zagreb. His Ph.D. these, in the field of

engineering, was defended at the same University in year

1990. Research for a doctoral dissertation he has completed as a Fulbright scholar at

the City University of New York, USA. Since 1972 he is continuously employed by

the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. Over many years of teaching he was

elected to scientific assistant professor, associate professor and full professor, in 2003

was elected as a full professor with tenure. He was Dean at the Faculty of Engineering

in Rijeka in two terms. Nowadays, he performs duties at the head of Institute for

Thermodynamics and Energy. The principal areas of his interest are thermodynamics,

energy, renewable energy and thermotechnical and thermal power systems. He was

also a mentor to several doctoral dissertations, master's degrees and graduate thesis.

He was a contributor to five, and the leader of eleven scientific research projects. He

has published one hundred and fifty scientific papers, authored several technical

studies and a number of projects (see CROSBI). Since 1996 he organizes the

international conference on Energy and the Environment in Opatija and he edits

abstract collection of the conference. He was President of the Organizing Committee

of the European conference on solar energy EuroSun 2012. He is a member of several

national and international scientific and professional organizations, associations and

bodies. He is a member of the Scientific Council of Maritime Academy and the

Scientific Council for Energy Academy and a regular member of the Croatian

Academy of Engineering. He is the President of the International Solar Energy



Society, ISES Europe (2011-2013), Freiburg. He is a member of the International

Institute of Refrigeration, Paris, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating

and Air-conditioning, Atlanta. Since year 2005 he is the President of the Croatian

shipbuilding and mechanical Engineers Association, and was president of the Croatian

Chamber of Architects and Engineers. He is editor of scientific journal Engineering.

For scientific work he has received several awards and honors, among which stand out

here: Annual Award of the City of Rijeka (1999), Annual Award Hrvoje Požar (2000),

Annual National Award for Science (2001) And Rikard Podhorsky Award (2008). He

received several awards for teaching and professional work.

Zoran Kordi ć

Zoran Kordić obtained a Diploma in Electrical

Engineering in 2011 from University of Zagreb. Until

2011 he worked in Municipality of Ivanic-Grad as junior

expert for energy efficiency issues. From January 2012

he is working in United Nations Development

Programme as Programme Assistant. Now days he is

coordinating the project of preparation of Low-Emission

Development Strategy for Croatia in Ministry of

Environmental and Nature Protection.

Organisation: United Nations Development Programme

Staff category: Programme Assistant



Ben Bartle

Ben Bartle obtained Master of Science degree with

honours (Environmental Management and Economics)

from University of Auckland in 2011. His topic

specialized in a market based emissions trading

instrument to achieve emissions management through

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

in the New Zealand agricultural sector. He worked as

Key Account Manager and Carbon Broker in Australia.

Since April 2012 he is engaged with UNDP Croatia.

Robert Pašičko

Robert Pašičko obtained a Diploma in Electrical

Engineering in 2003 and Diploma in Management in

2008, both from University of Zagreb. Until 2009 he

worked as researcher at Department of Power Systems

on Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing in

Zagreb, with research focus on modeling emission

trading impacts and on renewable energy sources

(specifically biomass and solar thermal) and energy

efficiency in buildings sector. He is one of the authors of the Croatian Energy

Strategy and was active in several projects on carbon strategies, emission trading,

electrical sector modeling and renewable energy sources. He was coordinating

activities of Croatian partner in IEE project SOLCAMP (Solar Energy Use in

Camping Sites), in FP7 project CEUBIOM (Classification of European Biomass

Potential for Bioenergy Using Terrestrial and Earth Observations) and currently



works on FP7 project CLIMRUN (Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean

region Responding to users need). He is finishing his PhD thesis on emission trading

impact on a power system under educational programme lead by Norwegian

University of Science and Technology.


Staff category: Senior Expert

Lin Herenčić

Lin Herenčić obtained a Diploma in Electrical

Engineering in 2011 and obtained Master of science

degree in Economics in 2012 both from University

of Zagreb. In 2012 he worked shortly in United

Nations Development Programme on the project of

preparation of Low-Emission Development

Strategy. He analysed influence of low carbon

development on society, economy and environment

indicators. He is currently employed in HEP Trade Group.

Organisation: Hrvatska Elektroprivreda (HEP Group)

Staff category: Young expert



Sandra Vlašić

Sandra Vlašić obtained a Diploma of Biology-

Ecology Engineer in 1995 from University of Zagreb

and a Master of Science degree in Environmental

Economics, Policy and Risk in 2002 from Heriot-

Watt University Edinburgh (UK). Since 1996 she

works in the sector of international assistance

organisations (Open Society Institute, Regional

Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) and USAID), while in

2003 she is engaged with UNDP Croatia as the Environment Programme Officer. For

the past 15 years she has been working in the field of environment and natural

resources management with cross-sectoral and international teams. Since 2003 she is

responsible for strategic planning, development and management of the environment

portfolio of UNDP in Croatia which gradually grew to its current volume of $4-5

million in annual delivery over a number of years. Portfolio covers themes of energy

efficiency, systematic energy management in public sector, sustainable coastal

development and biodiversity conservation, with a growing nexus of cross-sectoral

cooperation aimed at low-carbon and sustainable local and regional development.

UNDP Croatia environment portfolio has been recognised in the SEE region as a

show-case programme and there are several requests from other countries for

replication, both in energy and in coastal management sector.


Staff category: Senior Expert



Neven Duić

Prof. dr. sc. Neven Duić is a full professor at the Power

Engineering and Energy Management Chair at the

Department of Energy, Power Engineering and

Environment, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and

Naval Architecture.

He is Croatian national coordinator for researchers

mobility at the Agency for Mobility and EU

Programmes, President of a Committee for

International projects at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval

Architecture, Co-ordinator of Croatian participation of 18 international scientific

research projects.

Prof. Neven Duić published over 150 research papers, of which 45 in journals (of

which 27 in journals referred in SCI) and 5 in books. He was cited 350 times in

Scopus and 203 times in WoS. He gave more than 50 invited and keynote lectures.

He has organised several of the series of conferences on Sustainable Development

of Energy, Water and Environment Systems and was a member of organising,

scientific and programming committees of more than 20 research conferences.

His main areas of interests are Energy policy and planning, energy economics,

sustainable development policy and resource planning, climate change mitigation,

combustion engineering and modelling, research and innovation policy.

Full CV: http://powerlab.fsb.hr/nduic/



Dubravko Sabolić Dubravko Sabolić (born in 1969 in Zagreb, Croatia)

obtained his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering and

his M.S. degree in economics from the University of

Zagreb, Croatia, in 2004 and 2007, respectively.

Since July 1994 he has been working for the Croatian

Electricity Utility (HEP). From April 2007 to June 2012

he was the C.E.O. of the Croatian TSO (HEP-TSO, Llc.).

Now he works as an Assistant Director in the

Development and Institutional Affairs Department of the same company. From

December 2001 to September 2004 he served as a Commissioner at the Croatian

regulatory authority for telecoms (Telecommunications Council). From 2006 to 2011

he has been a member of Working groups for preparation of negotiations on Croatia's

accession to the EU in two Chapters: Information society and media, and Energy.

He is also an Assistant Professor at the University of Zagreb, Croatia, where he

teaches Engineering Economics for undergraduate students of electrical engineering

and computing. He also teaches Electricity Markets at the University of Osijek,

Croatia, for graduate students of electrical engineering.



Bojan Baletić

Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić (born 1957, Šibenik,

Croatia) is a full professor at the Faculty of

Architecture, University of Zagreb. Since year 2006

he is a vice rector for development and regional

planning at the University of Zagreb. Since year 1997

he is a member of the Croatian Academy of

Engineering.

Bojan Baletić has published over 60 scientific papers, including 21 in international

conferences. He has participated in a total of 47 international and national meetings.

In the period since 1990 by 2005 he was a leader or member of the scientific

committee of 14 scientific and professional meetings. He was editor of the abstract

collection at 6 conferences. He was the leader of four international projects within

TEMPUS, ALIS - link and USAIDALO programs, and leader of seven local

research projects. He has reviewed scientific publications, proceedings,

international conferences and vocational curriculum. He delivered 25 invited

lectures at national and international conferences and forums.

He is the founder and president of CAD section CAA (1989-1996) and international

scientific meetings CAD Forum (1989-1996) and MediaScape (1993-1995). He is a

member (or was) of many associations (DAZ, CAA, Ecovast ZUIK, CCC, NGO,

ECAADE, CROSS, DSE).



Jakov Baleta Jakov Baleta was born on 12.01.1989 in Sisak.

Elementary and secondary school he has attend in

Sisak, after which he has enrolled the Faculty of

Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture,

University of Zagreb. He has finished Thermal

engineering undergraduate studies with highest

honor (summa cum laude), and for outstanding achievement during the study was

awarded with the medal of the Faculty. Areas of his research are; rational use of

energy in buildings and industry, with a focus on heat pumps, energy analysis of

HVAC systems, and the development of mathematical models of computational

fluid dynamics problems in the treatment of exhaust gases of internal combustion

engines. Jakov Baleta is currently a graduate student, studying mechanical

engineering.

Tomislav Ćutić Tomislav Ćutić, born in 1989 in Zagreb, is a final

year graduate student in mechanical engineering

(module: power and process engineering,

specialization: applied thermodynamics) at the

University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical

Engineering and Naval Architecture. In addition, he

obtained his summa cum laude Bachelor´s degree from the same University

graduating in 2011 with the highest GPA in his class. During his studies, he served

as a student assistant (demonstrator) at the Department of Technical Mechanics

(2008-2010) and at the Department of Technical Thermodynamics, Thermal and



Process Engineering (2009-2012). He is a co-author of two scientific papers

published (to be published) in proceedings of international conferences. He was

awarded several student achievement awards (Davorin Bazjanac prize delivered by

the Faculty (2008 and 2009), Hrvoje Požar annual student award delivered by

Croatian Energy Association (2011) and Medal of the Faculty in 2011) as well as a

couple of scholarships which enabled him to take part in summer schools abroad: in

Germany (2010), Finland (2011) and Austria (2012). He also received a full Supera

Business Academy scholarship (tuition fee waiver) for participation in a Sales

Management one-year course. He is currently living in Freiburg, Germany, working

at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE with the aim of

completing his master thesis in the area of heat pump technology.

Vladimir Poto čnik Born in Travnik in 1936. In 1960 graduated from the

Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval

Architecture in Zagreb, where he won a master’s

degree in 1975. He speaks English, German, French

and Russian language.

From 1960 to 2001 he was employed with

Elektroprojekt Zagreb, and participated in and lead

more than one hundred projects in Croatia (waste-

fired CHP Plant Zagreb, Combined Thermal Power Plant Jertovac, CHP Zagreb,

Nuclear Power Plant Prevlaka, etc.) and abroad (Diesel-operated power plant

Lesvos Greece, Thermal Power Plant Kandla India, Hydro Power Plant Martinsville

USA, Thermal Power Plant AL Shemal Iraq, Nuclear Power Plant Krško Slovenija,

etc.). He initiated a number of projects in Croatia (revitalisation of thermal power



plants, cogenerations, renewable energy sources, etc.). He participates in defining

waste management strategy and legislation in Croatia, drawing up the National

Energy Program BIOEN and the First National Communication of the Republic of

Croatia to the UNFCCC. He is active in the Committee for Environmental Impact

Assessment.

Published more than 80 papers in professional publications and proceedings of the

meetings. Author of two books:

• Obrada komunalnog otpada – Svjetska iskustva, 1997. (Municipal Waste

Treatment – Global Experience)

• Obnovljivi izvori energije i zaštita okoliša u Hrvatskoj, 2002. (Renewable

Energy Sources and Environmental Protection in Croatia)

Translated the book: J.Skitt, 1000 Terms of Waste Management, 1995.



SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS



Dr.sc. Goran Granić, mr.sc. Damir Pešut, mr.sc. Mario Tot, mr.sc. Željko Juri ć, Laszlo Horvath, Andro Bačan, Biljana Kuliši ć, dr.sc. Goran Majstorović Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar

RAZVOJ ENERGETSKOG SEKTORA REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE DO 20 50. GODINE U UVJETIMA SMANJENJA EMISIJE UGLJIKOVOG DIOK SIDA

Sažetak U radu je analizirano pitanje: Je li moguće i s kojim posljedicama ostvariti energetski razvoj uz istovremeno smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine? Pri tome se ne misli samo na očekivanu posljedicu rasta troškova, već i na moguće poželjne utjecaje energetskog sektora na tehnološki razvoj, razvoj znanosti, gospodarstva i povećanje dodane vrijednosti. Za potrebe ovog rada modeliran je i simuliran razvoj energetskog sektora do 2050. godine upotrebom dva modela za procjenu energetskih sustava: • Model za analizu potrošnje energije (MAED – Model for Energy System

Analysis1) • Model za optimiranje sustava opskrbe energijom (MESSAGE – Model for Energy

Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts2). MESSAGE koristi rezultate MAED modela kao ulazne pretpostavke i podatke.

Mogućnosti razvoja u sektorima industrija, kućanstvo, usluge i promet modelirane su simulacijski, tj. razmatrane su moguće putanje razvoja kako bi se približno dostigli ciljevi sektorskog smanjenja emisije CO2 u skladu s prethodno opisanim ciljevima koji se razmatraju na razini EU-a. Prosječni trošak proizvodnje električne energije u 2050. godini povećava se za skoro 140 posto u odnosu na 2015. godinu. Odgovor glasi: Smanjenje emisija CO2 u Hrvatskoj za ukupno 80 posto, a u elektroenergetskom sektoru i do 95 posto, je moguće s tehničkog i tehnološkog aspekta, ali uz velike financijske posljedice i značajne promjene u energetskom sektoru, kojima trebaju prethoditi promjene u razvoju znanosti i industrije.

1 Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2), Computer Manual Series 18, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2006 2 MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts, User Manual, International Atomic Energy Agency, June 2007



DEVELOPMENT OF THE CROATIAN ENERGY SECTOR BY 2050 I N TERMS OF REDUCING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS

Abstract The paper analyzes the question: is it possible to achieve and what would be the consequences of energy development while reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent by year 2050? Thereby, the growth of costs is not the only expected consequence, but there are also desirable and possible impacts of the energy sector on technological development, science, the economy and increasing the added value. In paper, the development of the energy sector by 2050 is modeled and simulated using two models for the evaluation of the energy systems:

• model for the analysis of energy consumption (MAED – Model for Energy System Analysis3)

• model for optimization of energy supply systems (MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts4)

MESSAGE use the results of MAED model as input assumptions and data. Development opportunities in the sectors of industry, households, services and transport were modeled in the simulation, i.e. possible trajectories of development were considered, in order to achieve the objectives of the sectoral reducing of CO2 emissions in line with the stated objectives which are discussed at the EU level. The average cost of electricity production in year 2050 will increase by nearly 140 percent compared to the year 2015. The answer is: the reduction of CO2 emissions in Croatia by 80% in total and by 95% in the power sector is possible from a technical and technological point of view, but with the high financial impact and significant changes in the energy sector, to which should precede changes in scientific and industrial development.

3 Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2), Computer Manual Series 18, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2006 4 MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts, User Manual, International Atomic Energy Agency, June 2007



Reinhard Jellinek Austrian Energy Agency

POLITIKA POTICANJA RAZVOJA TEHNOLOGIJE, GORIVA I PROMJENE PONAŠANJA U PROMETU – REZULTATI I USPJESI PROGRAMA AUSTRIAN KLIMA: AKTIV MOBIL PROGRAMA

NAKON PRVIH SEDAM GODINA Sažetak Postoji veliki broj koncepata i strategija na gotovo svim razinama vlasti za smanjenje emisija ugljikovog dioksida i poticanje energetske učinkovitosti u prometu. Prilagođavanje nacionalnog i regionalnog zakonodavstva ovih strategija obično traje dugo, što finalno rezultira s velikim gubitkom dragocjenog vremena. Nadalje, neke od utvrđenih mjera nikada neće naići na potrebnu "političku volju" za provedbu. Kako bi premostili taj problem Austrijsko ministarstvo okoliša, podržano od strane Austrijske agencije za energiju, predstavilo je 2005. godine akcijski program „Austrian Klima“, kondenzirajući sve takozvane "meke" i "dobrovoljne" mjere u prometu ("upravljanje mobilnošću"), koje ne moraju nužno čekati zakonodavstvo ili specifične administrativne okvire. U tom sveobuhvatnom pristupu – program ciljano nije namijenjen samo prijevozu već su u njega uključene i zgrade, obnovljivi izvori energije i energetske uštede - i po svojim učincima u pogledu smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova, klima: aktiv, a posebno klima: aktiv mobil jedinstvena je u Europi. Klima:aktiv mobil aktivnosti:

• besplatni program savjetovanja koji obuhvaća specifične ciljne skupine (tvrtke, gradovi i općine, projektanti nekretnina, škole i mladež, turizam)

• financijska potpora programa s 51 mil. € od 2007. godine za mjere upravljanja mobilnošću, brze konverzije na tehnologije s niskom razinom ugljika, poslovnih putnih planova i sl.

• EcoDriving program obuke sa, do sada, 20.000 uvježbanih i educiranih vozača o pametnom stilu vožnje

• raširena kampanja za podizanje svijesti • oko 2.900 klima: aktiv mobil partnera koji obavljaju provedbu mjera za

održivi promet svim ciljnim skupinama.



Spomenutim aktivnostima smanjuje se više od 530.000 tona emisija CO2 svake godine, otvori se ili se sačuva 4.300 „zelenih radnih mjesta“ u prometu te se induciraju „zelene“ investicije poduzeća i uprava koje su za 7 do 8 puta uvećane u odnosu na fundamentalna sredstva. Klima:aktiv mobil jedan je od glavnih pokretača u Austriji za ubrzani razvoj tehnologije, goriva i promjene ponašanja u prometu s omjerom troškovi/korist znatno povoljnijim nego je to slučaj u većini infrastrukturnih ulaganja.

POLICIES TO ACCELERATE FUEL, TECHNOLOGY & BEHAVIOUR AL CHANGE IN TRANSPORT – RESULTS AND SUCCESSES OF THE AUSTRIAN KLIMA:AKTIV MOBIL PROGRAMME AFTER THE

FIRST SEVEN YEARS Abstract There is plenty of concepts and strategies on almost all administrative levels to reduce carbon emissions and boost energy efficiency in transport. But it usually takes a long time to adapt national and regional legislation to these strategies with considerable loss of valuable time. Furthermore some of the defined measures will never find the necessary “political will” for implementation. To bridge this gap Austria’s Environmental ministry supported by the Austrian Energy Agency, got into action 2005 and set up an action programme, condensing all so called “soft” and “voluntary” measures in transport (“mobility management”), that do not necessarily need to wait for legislation or specific administrative framework conditions. In its comprehensive approach – not only transport is targeted, but also buildings, renewables and energy saving – and also in its effects regarding the reduction of GHG emissions, klima:aktiv and especially klima:aktiv mobil seems to be one-of-a-kind in Europe. Klima:aktiv mobil set-up:

• free-of-charge consulting programmes addressing specific target groups (companies, cites & municipalities, real estate developers, schools & youth, tourism)

• a financial support programme with 51 Mio € since 2007 for mobility management measures, fleet conversions to low-carbon technologies, work travel plans etc.



• an EcoDriving training programme with up to now 20,000 trainees and educating all novice drivers in Austria in a smart driving style

• a broad awareness raising campaign • about 2,900 klima:aktiv mobil partners among the target groups

implementing sustainable transport measures and therewith reduces more than 530,000 tons of CO2 emissions every year, created or saved 4300 “green jobs” in transport and induced “green” investments by companies and administrations 7 to 8 times higher as the funding. Klima:aktiv mobil is one of the main drivers in Austria to accelerate fuel, technology & behavioural change in transport and shows a cost/benefit ratio much better than most infrastructure investments.



Peter Kaderjak REKK: Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research Corvinus University of Budapest

DEKARBONIZACIJA MA ĐARSKOG SEKTORA ELEKTRI ČNE I TOPLINSKE ENERGIJE: ŠTO JE NAJMANJE NEMOGU ĆE?

Sažetak U radu je obuhvaćena problematika dekarbonizacije, tj. dan je izvještaj o ekonomskoj procjeni dekarbonizacijskih scenarija mađarskog sektora električne i toplinske energije do 2050. godine. Procjena se temelji na ekonomskom modeliranju koje podrazumijeva širenje primjene postojećih tehnologija. Rezultati upućuju na to da je, u slučaju Mađarske, mogućnost smanjenja CO2 u sektoru toplinske energije jeftinije i realnije rješenje za dekarbonizaciju. U slučaju sektora električne energije, vizijski predviđena dekarbonizacija od 90 do 95 posto (Commisssion's 2050 vision), nije izvediva bez masovne primjene CCS tehnologije ili bez novih tehnologija.

DECARBONISING THE HUNGARIAN ELECTRICITY AND HEAT SECTORS: WHAT IS THE LEAST IMPOSSIBLE?

Abstract The presentation will report on an economic assessment of decarbonisation scenarios for the Hungarian electricity and heat sectors by 2050. The assessment is based on economic modeling that assumes an expanding application of existing technologies. The results suggest that CO2 abatement in the heat sector might be a cheaper and more realistic option for decarbonisation in the Hungarian case. With regard to the electricity sector, decarbonisation foreseen in the Commission's 2050 vision (90-95%) is not feasible without a massive application of CCS technology or without a non-foreseeable technology breakthrough.



Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka, Croatia

USUSRET BUDUĆNOSTI BEZ EMISIJA CO 2

Sažetak Godine 2009. EU‐27 je donijela paket klimatsko‐energetskih mjera kojima se sve zemlje članice obvezuju na smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova iz referentne godine za najmanje 20 posto do 2020. godine. Prema podacima EEA (Europska Energetska Agencija) EU‐27 je, do kraja 2010. godine, smanjila emisije iz referentne godine za 15 posto. To smanjenje može biti kratkotrajni učinak globalne ekonomske krize, a razina emisija se može povećati kada se opet pokrenu gospodarske djelatnosti. Protokolom iz Kyota EU‐15 se obvezala na prosječno smanjenje emisija od 8 posto u odnosu na referentnu godinu u razdoblju od 2008. do 2012. godine. EEA tvrdi da se cilj iz Kyota ne samo ostvario nego i premašio, jer je prosječna razina emisija u razdoblju od 2008. do 2010. godine bila za 10 posto niža od emisija iz referentne godine. Nažalost, rijetke su zemlje u svijetu koje dijele EU planove za smanjenje stakleničkih plinova. Kina i Indija kao i druge brzo razvijajuće ekonomije zauzele su stav „uobičajenog poslovanja“ tvrdeći da napore za smanjivanje emisija treba ograničiti na razvijene zapadne zemlje koje su najviše pridonijele klimatskom problemu. U posljednje vrijeme je u EU, SAD‐u i ostatku svijeta sve više popularan plan koji zagovara smanjenje emisija iz referentne godine za čak 80 posto do 2050. godine. Za ostvarivanje tog cilja potrebno je: provođenje značajnog udjela u proizvodnji električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije, postizanje visoke razine energetske učinkovitosti u svim energetski intenzivnim sektorima te uvođenje novih tehnologija kao što je odvajanje i skladištenje ugljikovog dioksida. Do kraja 2012. godine Hrvatska će ispoštovati obvezu o smanjenju emisija za 5 posto preuzetu ratifikacijom Protokola iz Kyota, iako je to ostvareno prvenstveno zbog gospodarske krize. Ulaskom u EU 2013. godine Hrvatska će preuzeti obvezu smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova za 20 posto do 2020. godine.



TOWARDS A CO2‐‐‐‐FREE FUTURE

Abstract In 2009, the EU‐27 adopted a climate and energy package which committed Member States to reduce base‐year emission levels by at least 20% by the year 2020. According to the EEA (European Energy Agency), the EU‐27 had already reduced its base‐year emissions by 15% by the end of the year 2010. This may, however, be a short‐term effect of the global economic crisis and these emission levels may level‐off once the economy speeds up. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU‐15 agreed to achieve a common emission reduction target of 8% compared to base‐year levels, over the period from 2008 to 2012. The EEA states that the Kyoto target was not only met but well exceeded in the EU‐15, as the average emission levels in the period from 2008 to 2010 were 10% lower than the base‐year emission levels. Unfortunately, very few countries in the world share in the EU's plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. China and India as well as other emerging economies have taken the position of “business as usual”, arguing that the emission reduction efforts should be limited to developed western countries which have contributed most to the climate problem. Recently, a very bold emission reduction target has been gaining popularity in the EU, the USA and in the rest of the world: to reduce base‐year greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by the year 2050. To reach this target, a significant share of renewables should be employed in power generation, high levels of energy efficiency should be achieved in all energy intensive sectors and new technologies such as carbon capture and storage should be introduced. By the end of the 2012, Croatia will reach the assigned emission reduction target of 5% under the Kyoto Protocol, although it could have been the other way if the economy had not slowed down. Croatia has agreed to take over the 20% emission reduction target by 2020 once it becomes the 28th EU Member State in 2013.



Zoran Kordi ć, Robert Pašičko, Sandra Vlašić, Lin Herenčić, Ben Bartle Program Ujedinjenih Naroda za razvoj u Hrvatskoj (UNDP), Zagreb, Croatia

IZRADA STRATEGIJE NISKO-UGLJI ČNOG RAZVOJA HRVATSKE Sažetak Strategija nisko-ugljičnog razvoja Hrvatske je nacionalna, sveobuhvatna, dugotrajna strategija, razvijena na visokoj političkoj razini od strane domaćih interesnih skupina, čiji je cilj razdvojiti ekonomski rast i društveni razvoj od povećanja emisija stakleničkih plinova. Republika Hrvatska ima priliku pridružiti se zemljama koje su izradile dugoročnu strategiju nisko-ugljičnog razvoja te time odlučno krenuti putem održivog razvoja. Koncept Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja je usvojen odlukom iz Cancuna (Mexico) iz 2010. godine, na 16. zasjedanju konferencije stranaka (COP 16), pod okriljem Okvirne konvencije Ujedinjenih naroda o promjeni klime (UNFCCC). Slijedom te Odluke je i Europska unija izradila Plan puta za prijelaz na konkurentno gospodarstvo s niskim udjelom ugljika do 2050. godine (A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050). Cilj Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja je kontrola emisija stakleničkih plinova, zaštita okoliša, poticanje ekonomskog razvoja na principima održivosti, stvaranje prilika za nove poslove te usmjeravanje društva prema dugoročno održivom razvoju. Strategija će se izraditi u okviru projekta 'Potpora Republici Hrvatskoj u izradi Nisko-ugljične strategije razvoja' kojeg provodi Program Ujedinjenih naroda za razvoj (UNDP) u Hrvatskoj. Tijelo zaduženo za izradu strategije je Ministarstvo zaštite okoliša i prirode. U okviru Strategije će se, detaljno i stručno, analizirati potencijal ublažavanja klimatskih promjena za pojedine sektore, prikazati dugoročni BAU (business-as-usual) scenarij i scenarij uz primjenu mjera (do 2050.godine), identificirati mjere za ublažavanje klimatskih promjena i provesti ekonomska analiza definiranih mjera. Ovaj rad daje pregled izrade Strategije za Hrvatsku (koja bi trebala biti gotova do veljače 2013. godine), pregled predloženih mjera po uključenim sektorima (s najvećim naglaskom na sektor energetike), kao i pregled prepreka koje su se pojavljivale pri izradi takvog dokumenta.



MAKING OF CROATIAN LOW -EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Abstract A Low-Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) is a national, high-level, comprehensive, long-term strategy, developed by domestic stakeholders, which aims at decoupling economic growth and social development from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth. Croatia has begun to join the growing list of countries in the world that have already developed a long-term strategy for low-emissions development and thereby take the road of sustainable development. The 16th Conference of the Parties” (COP), held in Cancun in December 2010, adopted the Cancun Agreementsi - a historic set of decisions laying the foundation to tackle climate change through a new post-2012 regime. The Cancun Agreements “encourages governments to prepare low-carbon development strategies in the context of sustainable development.” and “realizes that addressing climate change requires a paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society that offers substantial opportunities and ensures continued high growth and sustainable development”. Recently the European Commission adopted a Roadmap for transforming the European Union into a competitive low carbon economy by 2050. The Roadmap describes the cost-effective pathway to reach the EU's objective of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% of 1990 levels by 2050. On the domestic level, the LEDS is a country-driven policy instrument for national decision making. The LEDS supports sector transformation through a national, economy-wide approach. On the international level, LEDS support the global goal of GHG emission reduction. The Croatian Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection in cooperation with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Croatia will design and implement the Low-Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) under project titled “Supporting RBEC countries transition to low-emission development”. The LEDS merges climate change action with national sustainable development and helps to identify and prioritize nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) or sectoral roadmaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of mitigation potentials, costs and co-benefits. This paper provides an overview of the process of developing the Strategy for Croatia (which should be completed by February 2013) and a review of the proposed measures with special focus on the energy sector.



Neven Duić, Goran Kraja čić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel, Iva Ridjan Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje, Zagreb, Croatia

ISKORIŠTAVANJE OBNOVLJIVIH IZVORA ENERGIJE, ENERGET SKA UČINKOVITOST I SMANJENJE EMISIJA STAKLENI ČKIH PLINOVA

KAO POKRETA Č RAZVOJA „ZELENE EKONOMIJE“ U HRVATSKOJ DO 2050. GODINE

Sažetak Ograničavanje porasta globalnog zatopljenja i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova traži zaokret u dosadašnjem vođenju energetske politike mnogih zemalja. Dok tehnologije s minimalnim i gotovo nultim emisijama stakleničkih plinova postoje i primjenjuju se nekoliko desetljeća, zabrinjavajuća je vrlo spora stopa rasta njihovog tržišnog udjela te još uvijek znatno veća ulaganja i subvencije u fosilna goriva na svjetskoj razini. Da bi došlo do promjena potrebno je vrlo pomno planirati potrošnju i dobavu energije. Kvalitetno i racionalno predviđanje buduće energetske potrošnje osnovna je pretpostavka za naprednu analizu i modeliranje energetskih sustava te će kao ulazni podatak presudno utjecati na dimenzioniranje istih. Kroz ovaj rad odabran je bottom up pristup, kao najprimjerenija metodologija koja će opisati utjecaj pravnih, ekonomskih ili čisto tehnoloških mehanizama. Scenariji dobave energije u potpuno obnovljivom energetskom sustavu za 2050. godinu te mogućnost ostvarivanja niskougljičnog društva simulirani su pomoću modela za energetsko planiranje: H2RES i EnergyPLAN. Usporedba korisne energije potrebne za grijanje u 2050. pokazuje razliku veću od 16 posto, za različiti tempo obnove postojećih zgrada u sektoru kućanstva od 1 i 3 posto godišnje. Svekolika elektrifikacija cestovnog prometa osobnih automobila u kombinaciji s postroženim zahtjevima za učinkovitošću motora s unutrašnjim izgaranjem može dovesti i do 30 posto ušteda u usporedbi s referentnim scenarijem prometnog sektora u 2050. godini. U razdoblju od 2030. do 2050. moguće je smanjiti emisije stakleničkih plinova za 82 posto. Korištenje obnovljivih izvora energije te proizvodnja sintetičkih goriva omogućuju prelazak na potpuno obnovljiv energetski sustav u Hrvatskoj u 2050, čime se može otvoriti 192.000 radnih mjesta samo za održavanje postrojenja i proizvodnju goriva te povećati sigurnost opskrbe te smanjiti vanjskotrgovinska bilanca za cjelokupan uvoz fosilnih goriva, prema rezultatima simulacija, za 4-5 milijardi eura.



RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AS MAIN

SOURCES OF DEVELOPMENT OF “GREEN ECONOMY” IN CROATIA UNTIL 2050

Abstract Most countries will need a shift in their energy strategies in order to limit the increase in global warming and to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. It is worrying that while technologies with little or no greenhouse gas emissions exist, and are used for a couple of decades now, the increase of their market share is extremely low and the investments and subsidies in fossil fuels are substantially larger on a world wide scale. For changes to accrue it is necessary to carefully plan both the energy consumption and supply. A correct and rational prediction of future energy consumption is the basic assumption for the advanced analysis and modelling of energy systems and it will, as an input, have a profound influence on them. In this paper a bottom up approach was selected because it is the most suitable methodology to describe the legal, economic or purely technical mechanisms. Scenarios for the energy supply in 100% renewable systems in 2050 and the possibility to create a low-carbon society were simulated using the EnergyPLAN model for energy system analysis. Comparison of the necessary useful energy for space heating in 2050 shows a difference greater than 16% for different rates of renovation of the existing buildings in the residential sector of 1% and 3% annually. The electrification of road transport for passenger cars in combination with increased requirements for energy efficiency of internal combustion engines can reduce the energy consumption in the transport sector by 30% in comparison to the reference scenario for 2050. It is possible to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 82% in the period 2030-2050 and the use of renewable energy sources and the production of synthetic fuels can enable a transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Croatia in 2050. Doing so would create 192000 jobs in plant maintenance and fuel production alone, increase the security of energy supply and reduce the expenditure for the purchase of fossil fuels by 4-5 billion EUR according to the results of the simulation.



Dubravko Sabolić HEP-Transmission System Operator, Llc.

EKONOMSKA PITANJA U VEZI S DEKARBONIZACIJOM ELEKTROENERGETSKOG SUSTAVA

Sažetak Ostvarivanje ciljeva Europske unije glede smanjenja emisija ugljikovog dioksida za osamdeset posto do 2050. godine podrazumijeva, između ostalog, ostvarivanje proizvodnje električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora u udjelu od 96 posto ili više. Isto tako, elektroenergetski sustav u najširem smislu treba značajno povećati vlastitu energetsku učinkovitost. Ovako ambiciozni ciljevi, koji iz današnje perspektive izgledaju gotovo nedostižni, zahtijevat će izuzetno velika kapitalna ulaganja u postrojenja bazirana na čistim tehnologijama. Troškovi očuvanja okoliša više se neće moći zaobilaziti kao do sada. Te troškove će društvo kao cjelina morati podnijeti kroz povećanje cijena energije u svim njenim oblicima. Današnji sustavi subvencija, na kojima počiva razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije, morat će u udaljenoj budućnosti kao što je 2050. godina biti potpuno napušteni, a sustav će morati postati samoodrživ u ekonomskom smislu. U ovom radu su sagledani ekonomski izazovi pred kojima se nalazi elektroenergetski sustav u procesu rapidne dekarbonizacije te je ukazano na neke od općih raširenih zabluda u vezi s tim procesom.

ECONOMIC ISSUES IN POWER SYSTEM DECARBONIZATION

Abstract Achieving the eighty-percent decrease in carbon-dioxide emissions until 2050, which is the primary goal of the European Union’s long-term energy policy, assumes, inter alia, that the electricity part of the system will be able to produce at least 96 percent of electricity from renewable sources. Moreover, the power system in the widest sense of the word should significantly increase its energy efficiency. Such tremendously ambitious goals, which may as well seem almost unattainable from today’s perspective, will certainly require hefty capital investments in plants based on clean technologies, thus, the costs of pollution externalities will not be avoidable anymore. They will have to be bore by the society through substantial increase in energy prices



relative to other products and services. Today’s subvention schemes, which support current development of renewable sources, will have to be completely abandoned until such a distant future as 2050 is. The power system will have to become self-sustainable in an economic sense. This work pertains to economic challenges which face the power system in a forthcoming processes of rapid decarbonization, as well as to some widely-spread blunders about them.



Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić, Prof.dr.sc. Mladen Josić, Velimir Toli ć University of Zagreb

KAMPUS BORONGAJ: CO 2 IZAZOV ZA SVEU ČILIŠTE Kampus Borongaj će osigurati optimalne uvjete za studij, primjenu znanja i ideja, smještaj, sport i zabavu na jednom mjestu. Kampus će biti prostor otvoren prema lokalnoj zajednici i njenim komplementarnim sadržajima. Izgradnjom Kampusa Borongaj, Sveučilište u Zagrebu želi stvoriti nove i bolje prostorne mogućnosti i na taj način potaknuti znanstvenike, sveučilišne profesore i studente za predaniji i učinkovitiji rad.

Kampus će ponuditi okolišnu, energetsku i tehnološku referentnu točku za hrvatsku građevinsku industriju i lokalno stanovništvo grada, maksimalnim korištenjem zelene energije i provedbe zaštite okoliša. Svi energetski zahtjevi Kampusa Borongaj temeljeni su na integriranom sustavu urbanih, arhitektonskih, mehaničkih, topoloških, geoloških, pedoloških, hidroloških, termodinamičkih i aerodinamičnih mjera za uspostavu Kampusa Borongaj u smislu regionalnog zelenog edukacijskog centra za obnovljive izvore energije i transfer tehnologije.

Cilj je da Kampus Borongaj, sa svojim partnerskim projektima, postepeno prelazi od CO2 nula do CO2 minus razine, odnosno na današnji princip društva 2000 W (prema terminologiji od ETH Zürich). Povezivanjem energije, transporta, hrane, održive gradnje u pametnom gradu Kampus Borongaj, nastoji se predstavit pilot projekt u postizanju ciljeva smanjenja emisije CO2 za 80%, danas, bez čekanja do 2050. godine.

CAMPUS BORONGAJ: A CO2 CHALLENGE FOR THE UNIVERSITY Abstract The Borongaj Campus will provide optimal conditions for study, application of knowledge and ideas, lodging, sport and entertainment in one place. The Borongaj Campus will be an area open toward the local community and its complementary facilities. By means of constructing the Borongaj Campus, the University of Zagreb wishes to create new and better spatial possibilities and thus encourage scientists, university professors and students to work in a more dedicated and efficient manner.



The campus will offer environmental, energy and technology reference point to the Croatian construction industry and to the local inhabitants of the city by using maximum of a green energy and implementing environmental protection. All energy demands of the Campus Borongaj are based on an integrated system of urban, architectural, mechanical, topological, geological, pedologic, hydrological, thermodynamic and aerodynamic measures to establish Campus Borongaj the regional green education centre for RES and transfer technology.

The aim is that Campus Borongaj, with its partner projects, gradually pass from CO2 zero to CO2 minus, respectively nowadays on the principle of the society the 2000 W (according to the terminology of ETH Zürich). Interconnection of energy, transport, food, sustainable construction in smart city Campus Borongaj as the pilot project in achieving the goals of reducing the CO2 emissions by 80%, like reality today, without waiting the 2050th year.



Tomislav Ćutić, Jakov Baleta, Josip Pasanec, Vladimir Soldo, Tonko Ćurko Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb

SMANJENJE POTROŠNJE ENERGIJE I EMISIJE CO 2 SUSTAVA ZA PRIPREMU POTROŠNE TOPLE VODE PRIMJENOM SOLARNE

DIZALICE TOPLINE S DIREKTNIM ISPARIVANJEM RADNE TVARI

Sažetak Priprema potrošne tople vode najčešće se provodi pomoću kotlova na fosilna goriva čijim izgaranjem nastaju onečišćujući plinovi te električnim bojlerima čija velika potrošnja posredno utječe na emisije štetnih plinova. Visok specifični toplinski kapacitet vode uzrokuju velike potrebne količine energije za njeno zagrijavanje, što značajno pridonosi ukupnoj potrošnji u kućanstvima, sektoru u kojem je u 2010. godini utrošeno 80,81 PJ ili 19,6 posto ukupne potrošnje u Republici Hrvatskoj. S obzirom na važnost sustava za pripremu potrošne tople vode u pogledu potrošnje energije i emisije stakleničkih plinova te obveze koje Hrvatska mora ispuniti u području smanjenja ukupne potrošnje energije, smanjenja emisije CO2 te povećanja udjela energije iz obnovljivih izvora, očigledna je potreba za primjenom novih tehnoloških rješenja u ovom području. U ovom radu opisana je solarna dizalica topline s direktnim isparivanjem radne tvari. Razvijeni uređaj, čiji princip rada počiva na ljevokretnom kružnom procesu, služi za pripremu potrošne tople vode volumena 300 l i predstavlja moguću komercijalnu inačicu omogućujući istovremeno istraživanja zahvaljujući ugrađenoj mjernoj opremi. Objašnjen je i princip rada uređaja, prikazani su i analizirani rezultati prvih mjerenja te je napravljena usporedba emisije CO2 između solarne dizalice topline i uređaja koji se uobičajeno koriste. S obzirom na decentraliziranu pripremu potrošne tople vode, povoljne meteorološke prilike posebice u južnim dijelovima Hrvatske te na sve više cijene energenata, ovaj tip sustava trebao bi pronaći svoju praktičnu primjenu u vrlo skoroj budućnosti. Takav sustav omogućio bi istovremeno sudjelovanje domaćih proizvođača pojedinih komponenata i smanjenje kako ukupne potrošnje energije tako i emisije stakleničkih plinova u Hrvatskoj.



REDUCTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN DOMESTIC WATER HEATING BY MEANS OF DIRECT EXPANSION

SOLAR ASSISTED HEAT PUMP Abstract Domestic water heating in households sector is usually performed by either fossil fuel fired or electric boilers. Both the combustion process of the former and large electricity consumption of the latter strongly influence overall greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, very high specific heat of water requires large quantity of energy for water heating making a significant impact on the overall energy consumption in the households sector whose total consumption of 80,81 PJ equals to 19,6% of total primary energy supply in Croatia in 2010. Considering the mentioned impact on energy consumption and CO2 emissions as well as goals set by European Commission (so called 20-20-20), new technologies based on renewable energy sources are more than welcome in the field of domestic water heating. Direct expansion solar assisted heat pump is presented in this paper. Its working principle is based on single-stage vapour-compression cycle. Representing a gradual step to commercial application with a water tank of 300 l, the developed mobile unit is designed as a test rig enabling all necessary measurements to evaluate potential of solar irradiation for domestic water heating on various locations. Besides the unit description, trial testing results are presented and analyzed as well as a basic comparison of CO2 emissions between solar assisted heat pump and conventionally used water heating systems. Taking into account both the decentralized water heating and favourable climatic conditions (especially along the Croatian Adriatic coast) as well as rising fossil fuel prices, it is expected that solar assisted heat pumps will be commercialized in the near future.



Tomo Galić1, Željko Tomšić2 1 HEP-Operator distribucijskog sustava d.o.o. 2 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb VIRTUALNE ELEKTRANE KAO MODEL ZA KONKURENTNOST MALI H

PROIZVOĐAČA I OPERATORA VIRTUALNIH ELEKTRANA NA TRŽIŠTIMA ELEKTRI ČNE ENERGIJE I PLINA

Sažetak Proizvodnja električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora i energetski učinkovitih izvora energije koji se priključuju na distribucijsku elektroenergetsku mrežu još uvijek nije konkurentna proizvodnji električne energije iz konvencionalnih izvora električne energije. Snažan tehnološki razvoj distribuiranih energetskih izvora i tehnologija za skladištenje električne energije omogućio je smanjenje troškova njihove proizvodnje, smanjenje troškova proizvodnje električne energije iz distribuiranih izvora energije, smanjenje troškova istovremene proizvodnje električne i toplinske energije iz kogeneracijskih distribuiranih izvora energije te na taj način omogućio i njihovu sve veću primjenu u praksi. To, također, omogućava njihovo međusobno povezivanje u sustave poput virtualnih elektrana radi ostvarenja potpune ekonomske opravdanosti njihove primjene. Postojeći kupci električne energije i plina, sada i u ulozi malih proizvođača električne energije, međusobno su povezani preko operatora virtualnih elektrana. Osim toga što kupuju električnu energiju i plin na maloprodajnim tržištima električne energije i plina, kupci će moći i prodavati električnu energiju i nove energetske usluge i na veleprodajnim tržištima električne energije. Razvoj i primjena novih distribuiranih tehnologija omogućit će proizvodnju novih količina električne energije čime će se povećati konkurentnost proizvođača električne energije, opskrbljivača krajnjih kupaca električnom energijom te elastičnost ponude i potražnje na tržištu električne energije. Ti procesi ujedno će povećati učinkovitost cjelokupnog sustava opskrbe električnom energijom i sustava opskrbe plinom.



VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS AS A MODEL FOR THE COMPETITIVE NESS OF SMALL MANUFACTURERS AND OPERATORS OF VIRTUAL POW ER

PLANTS IN MARKETS OF ELECTRICITY AND GAS Abstract Production of electricity from renewable energy sources and energy-efficient power sources to be connected to the electricity distribution network is still not competitive with electricity production from conventional sources of electricity. A powerful technological development of distributed energy sources and technologies for electricity storage has reduced their production costs, production costs of electricity from distributed energy sources, the costs of simultaneous production of electricity and thermal energy from cogeneration distributed energy sources and thus has facilitated their increased use in practice. It also allows them to interconnect systems such as virtual power plants in order to achieve full economic feasibility of their use. Current electricity and gas customers, now also in the role of small power producers, interconnected by virtual power plants operators, in addition to buying electricity and gas on retail markets for electricity and gas, will be able to sell electricity and new energy services also on wholesale electricity markets. Development and application of new distributed technologies will enable the production of new quantities of electricity which will increase the competitiveness of electricity producers, competitiveness of electricity suppliers of end-customers and elasticity of supply and demand in the electricity market. These processes will also increase the efficiency of the entire systems of electricity supply and of the gas supply systems.



Vladimir Poto čnik URH, Zagreb

DEKARBONIZACIJA HRVATSKE ENERGETIKE

Sažetak Dekarbonizacija energetike znači smanjivanje emisija stakleničkih plinova (CO2e), uglavnom od izgaranja fosilnih goriva (ugljen, nafta, prirodni plin). Glavni cilj dekarbonizacije energetike je ublažavanje klimatskih promjena, a osim toga se postiže razvoj domaće industrije i zapošljavanja, bolja zaštita okoliša i zdravlja te smanjivanje uvoza fosilnih goriva i inozemnog duga. Hrvatska raspolaže malim rezervama fosilnih goriva i velikim potencijalom obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE). Energetska učinkovitost (ENEF) je relativno niska, a uvoz energije s današnjih 50 posto trebao bi prema Strategiji energetskog razvoja Republike Hrvatske iz 2009. porasti do 2020. na 70 posto. Hrvatska energetika danas sudjeluje u vanjskotrgovinskom deficitu Hrvatske s oko trećinom. Glavne mjere dekarbonizacije hrvatske energetike su:

• povećanje ENEF (uštede energije) • zamjena fosilnih goriva s OIE i • administrativne mjere (nisko-ugljična strategija razvoja, eko-porezna reforma

i razdvajanje prihoda od prodaje energije). Neodgodivom primjenom tih mjera Hrvatska bi se do 2050. godine mogla riješiti fosilnih goriva.

DECARBONIZATION OF CROATIAN ENERGY SYSTEM

Abstract Energy system decarbonization is reduction of greenhouse gases (CO2e) emission, chiefly from the fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) combustion. The main objective of an energy system decarbonization is the climate change mitigation, and at the same time development of local industry and employment, better environment and health protection, as well as reduction of the fossil fuels import and foreign debt. Croatia has small fossil fuels reserves and large renewable energy sources (RES) reserves, energy efficiency (ENEF) is relatively low, and energy import, according to the actual Energy strategy 2009, should increase from 50% to 70% until 2020.



Croatian energy system participates with about one third in the Croatian foreign trade deficit. The main measures of the Croatian energy system decarbonization should be:

• increasing ENEF (energy savings), • switch from fossil fuels to RES, • administrative measures (low carbon development strategy, environmental

tax reform, and decoupling income from energy sales). By urgent application of these measures, Croatia could become fossil fuels free until the year 2050.



SPONZORI 21. FORUMA / 21st FORUM SPONSORSHIP

za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija ... · mala dvorana “vatroslav lisinski” /...

Documents