COORDINATION COMMITTEE

Kern Groundwater Authority

2 July 2018

Agenda

• GSP Schedule and Workplan

• Sustainable Management Criteria Development

• Future Water Supplies

• Undesirable Results

GSP SCHEDULE AND WORKPLAN

Coordination Committee

July 2, 2018

Kern Subbasin Generalized GSP ScheduleApril 2018

GSP Outline

Chapter Name Umbrella Chapter KGA Role

Introduction Prepare Content

Sub-basin Setting Summarize Content, Prepare Water Budgets

Sustainability Goals Guidance, Summarize Content

Monitoring Network Guidance, Summarize Content

Management Criteria Guidance, Summarize Content, Modeling

Water Supply Allocation Summarize Content, Modeling

Projects/Management Actions

Summarize Content, Modeling

Database Management Develop Architecture and Implement

Modeling Prepare Content, Modeling Consultant

Implementation Guidance, Summarize Content

Kern Subbasin Generalized GSP ScheduleJuly 2018

10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3GSP Introduction

Basin Setting (HCM and Groundwater Conditions)

Basin Setting (Water Budget)

Groundwater Model Development

"Compliance" Data Management System

Sustainable Management Criteria

Future Conditions

Monitoring Networks

Projects, Management Actions, and Adaptive Management

Legal Support

Coordination (Sustainable Yield Allocation, etc)

"Implementation" Data Management System

Stakeholder Outreach

Public Review

Draft GSP

GSP Report Preparation

Final GSP

2020Activity

Year/Month 2017 2018 2019

KGA Consulting Resources/NeedsExisting Resources:

• GEI – Technical Assistance• Todd Groundwater – Groundwater Modeling (Through KRGSA)• RMC – Modeling Peer Review• P&P – Administration

Anticipated Needs:• Modeling – Water Budgets, Future Projections, Sustainable Management Criteria

Development and Review• Report Preparation and Production – Develop KGA-Level Content, Summarize Chapter-Level

Information, Develop/Apply Consistent Data Methodology, Analytical Frameworks, Format and Graphics

Could Use Existing Consultants, New Consultants or a Combination of those

Identify Special Activities Agreement and Cost Allocation to Support

Task Orders to Complete GSP

• Task Orders approved at KGA BOD Meetings• Umbrella Level Sub-Basin Setting and Additional Sections – February 2018• Technical Support (GEI) and Admin Support (P&P) – February 2018• Outreach Plan (P&P) – April 2018

• Task Orders in Preparation• Sustainable Management Criteria – July 2018• Future Water Supplies – July 2018• Modeling Support – July 2018• Complete Umbrella Draft GSP – November 2018

• Prop 1 Task Order• Groundwater Model Peer Review – July 2018

Proposed Task Orders –Modeling/Analysis Support• Modeling Support Task Order – Original Proposal

• Develop Historical District Water Budgets• Develop Current District Water Budgets• Develop Future –Level District Water Budgets• Sub-Basin projections of water levels to support Sustainable Management Criteria

• Modeling Support Task Orders – Revised Proposal• Future Water Supplies – Separate Task Order, to be Presented July 2018• Revise Scope of Work for Remainder of Current W&C Task Order ($38,300 Remaining)

• Conduct Remaining Peer Review Activities• Conduct Time Sensitive Water Supply Review

• Develop New Modeling Task Order (Incorporate Portions of Earlier Prop 1 Proposal)• Future Level District Water Budgets• Sub-basin Projections of Water Levels

Proposed Task Orders – Draft GSP

• Prepare complete Draft GSP

• Include Narrative Sections from GEI Task Order 17

• Add Executive Summaries of KGA Member District “Chapters”

• Initiate Work Late 2018; Continue into 2019

• Product: Draft GSP for Public Review

2018 GSP Preparation Tasks

Task Budget Approval Completion

GSP Coordination Support (P&P Costs) $230,000 Feb 2018 Dec 2018

Surface Water Data Tabulation $75,000 Nov 2017 Mar 2018

Attorney Evaluation of Water Rights Precedents $60,000 2017 Apr 2018

Preparation of GSP Umbrella Narrative Portion $110,000 Feb 2018 Jul 2018

Sustainable Management Criteria $150,000 Jul 2018 Dec 2018

Future Water Supplies $50,000 Jul 2018 Dec 2018

Modeling Support $250,000 Jul 2018 Dec 2018

Outreach $25,000 Feb 2018 Dec 2018

Complete Draft GSP $200,000 Nov 2018 May 2019

Total $1.15 M

SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT

CRITERIACoordination Committee

July 2, 2018

Sustainable Management Criteria

• Minimum Thresholds – Quantitative Value that, when Exceeded, causes Undesirable Results

• Measurable Objectives – Quantitative Goals that Reflect the Basins Desired Groundwater Conditions

• Practical Interpretation of Minimum Thresholds and Measurable Objective:• Measurable Objective is Goal that is met under Normal Hydrologic Conditions• Minimum Thresholds are Values that Must be Not be Exceeded, even in Drought

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Sustainable Management Criteria

• Overriding Guidance: Meet Beneficial Uses of Groundwater• “The GSP must discuss how groundwater conditions at a

selected minimum threshold could affect beneficial uses and users”

• Separate Minimum Thresholds Needed for Each of Six Sustainability Indicators• Water Levels Can Be Used as Proxy (with Supporting Analysis)

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170

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Sep-16 Sep-18

Gro

undw

ater

Lev

el (F

eet a

bove

Mea

n Se

a Le

vel)

Kern Subbasin Monitoring Well

Monitoring Well

Drought Decline

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Theoretical Sustainability Trajectories

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2037 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045

Supp

ly S

hort

fall

Demand Reduction

Deferred Sustainability

Trajectory

Accelerated Sustainability

Trajectory

Intermediate Sustainability

Trajectory

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Conceptual Implementation Plan

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

Complete CEQA As

Necessary

Demand Reduction(Other Actions)

Demand Reduction (Yield Allocation)

Yield Allocation and Implementation Database Available

Groundwater Level Decline

Supply Projects

Project Water Levels With Potential Management Policies

-83 Feet

-52 Feet

-138 Feet

21

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Net

Pum

ping

(AF)

Projected Net Pumping

Current Conditions

Phased Reduction

Aggressive Reduction

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Projected GW Levels

Current Conditions

Phased Reduction

Aggressive Reduction

Process for Developing Sustainable Management Criteria for Water Levels

State Undesirable Results

Set Minimum Threshold Guess

Evaluate Minimum Threshold Guess

Does Minimum Threshold Result in

Undesirable Results?

No

Yes

Apply Mitigation Measures

Minimum Thresholds Established

NoYes Does Mitigated Minimum Threshold Result in

Undesirable Results?

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Minimum Threshold Data/Analysis Needs

• Understanding of General Water Budget – Approximate Need for Supplies or Demand Adjustment

• Identify Management Actions and Implementation Schedule

• Predict Groundwater Level – Model or Approximation

• Consider Potential Mitigation Measures

• Define Beneficial Use Characteristics – Well Construction, Subsidence, etc

• Schedule• September 15, 2018 – Initial Development of Minimum Thresholds • October 30, 2018 – Second Round of Minimum Thresholds

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Year/MonthActivity Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Document Methodology for SMC Development

Define Undesirable Results

Groundwater Model Development

Develop Future Water Supply Scenarios

Summarize Well Construction Characteristics

Develop Mitigation Measures

Develop First Round SMC Estimates

Identify Initial Projects and Management Actions

Quantify First Round Minimum Threshold Results

Review First Round SMC Estimates

Develop Second Round SMC Estimates

Refine Projects and Management Actions

Quantify Second Round Minimum Threshold Results

Stakeholder Outreach

Conduct Basin-wide Evaluation

Document SMC for Umbrella and Chapter GSP

Actvity Included in Proposed SMC Task OrderActivity included in other Existing or Future Task OrdersActivity included in Districts' Chapter Preperation

Kern Subbasin Sustainable Management Criteria Schedule20192018

Proposed SMC Support Task Order

Task Schedule Amount

SMC Methodology July-August $14,900Define Undesirable Results July-August $9,400KGA District Assistance TBD 0SMC Development Technical Support July-Sept $38,500Quantification of SMC Impacts Sept-Nov $59,300Summary Report Oct-Dec $20,200Total $145,800

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FUTURE WATER SUPPLIES

Coordination Committee

July 2, 2018

Projected (Future) Water Budget

• Used to quantify the estimated future baseline conditions of supply, demand, and aquifer response to GSP implementation

• Evaluate and identify the level of uncertainty in the estimate

• Estimate future baseline conditions concerning hydrology, water demand and surface water supply reliability over the 50-year planning and implementation horizon

• Use the most recent water supply information as the baseline condition for estimating future surface water supply, while applying the historical surface water supply reliability identified in §354.18(c)(2) and taking into consideration the projected changes in local land use planning, population growth, and climate

Projected (Future) Water Budget

• DWR Provides Monthly Factors for Streamflow Modification, ET Modification with Climate Change

• DWR Provides CALSIM Projections with equivalent Climate Change

• Water Level Projections Not Included in Todd Groundwater Model Scope

• Projected Water Budget is the basis for District Water Budget Analysis

• Approach to Projections:• State Water Project – Use CALSIM Projections (P&P to Develop)• Friant Kern Canal – Use equivalent Friant Kern Canal Projections to be developed by

Friant Water Authority• Kern River – Need to Develop; Likely differs from Historical; Involve Kern River Interests• Water Use – Use DWR estimate of 2016 Land Use and Average ET

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

1923

1925

1927

1929

1931

1933

1935

1937

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1945

1947

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1961

1963

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1969

1971

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1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Example SWP Deliveries to Kern County District

Historical Hist Averge Projected Proj Average

Historical Projected

Note: Each District with SWP supplies will have Different Comparison to Historical Conditions

UNDESIRABLE RESULTSCoordination Committee

July 2, 2018

Undesirable Results• Undesirable results occur when significant and unreasonable effects for any of the

sustainability indicators are caused by groundwater conditions occurring throughout the basin.

• Example Definitions:Water Levels – Levels that Impact < 10% of Domestic and Municipal Wells, and Maintain Economic Productivity for Agricultural UsersStorage – Storage Amounts of Double the Volume Needed for Operational FlexibilitySeawater Intrusion – Not ApplicableWater Quality – No Exceedances of MCLs or other applicable regulatory limits that are directly attributable to groundwater management actions that prevents the use of groundwater for its designated beneficial usesSubsidence – No Subsidence to Critical Infrastructure Resulting in 2% Loss in PerformanceDepletion of Interconnected Streams – Streamflow Depletion Limited to Less than 1% or Less than 2% Impact to Area of Riparian Impacts

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