yvonne brown - dmug 2014

© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved

DMUG 2014: Emissions Factors Tookit Update

2nd December 2014

Yvonne Brown

Technical Director

Air Quality

2Bureau Veritas Air Quality© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved

Overview

► Reminder of steps involved in calculating factors

► Changes to

Emissions Factors for NOx and PM

Changes to Fleet Information

Euro Compositions

► How have emissions changed?

► Alternative Technologies

► Other Updates

► Questions?


Reminder of Basic Steps

►Final Emissions Factors (g/km) take account of the following steps

Speed related Emissions Functions (polynomial equations with coefficients)

Degradation Factors (only Petrol Cars/LGVs Euro 1-4)

Fuel Scaling Factors

Fleet Information

• Euro compositions

• Vehicle compositions and sizes

• Region and Road Type

►Which of these have changed varies by vehicle type and therefore determines the overall change


Changes to NOx

► EFT v5 updated DfT TRL Emissions Factors for NOx to COPERT v8.1

► EFT v6 updated COPERTv10 for NOx

Euro 5 and 6 diesel cars – coefficients updated

Euro 5 and 6 LGVs – coefficients updated based on scaling of diesel cars.

Update aimed at reflecting more recent evidence from real-world emissions performance

No other changes to emissions functions

► Degradation calculations applied to petrol Cars and LGVs are unchanged.

► Fuel Scaling Factors updated from TRL to R-AEA based

Marginal changes


Changes to PM

► EFT v5 kept PM EFs as DfT TRL but added road abrasion

► EFT v6 updated exhaust EFs to COPERTv10

Polynomial functions for diesel vehicles

Petrol vehicles assume “urban” <50kph, “rural” 50>80kph,”motorway “ >80kph

► No degradation is applied to PM.

► Brake and Tyre Wear, Abrasion Factors remain same

► Fuel Scaling Factors updated from TRL to R-AEA based

Diesel vehicles – factors range from ~ 0.8 – 1.

• Similar to previous – slightly lower

Petrol vehicles – factors range from ~ 0.88 in 2010 to 0.4 in 2020/2030

• Significantly lower – previously assumed to be 1

Scaling factors are applied to the function


Changes to NOx Euro EFs (no fleet assumptions)

► 1% change to HGVs – due to updated fuel scaling

► Petrol Cars unchanged

► Diesel Cars (<2L Engine):

Euro 5 – 71% higher than EFT5.2. (~25% higher than Euro 4)

Euro 6 – 34% higher than EFT5.2 (~65% reduction on Euro 5)


Changes to Exhaust PM Euro EFs

(no fleet assumptions)

► Diesel Cars (<2L Engine):

Pre-Euro 1 -2 tend to be slightly higher

Euro 3 – 6 tend to be slightly lower



(no fleet assumptions)► Petrol Cars (<2L Engine):

All significantly lower - greater effects of scaling factors in later years



(no fleet assumptions)► HGVs and Buses

Pre-Euro 1 – Euro 2 lower

Euro 3 – 6 higher

2020 slighter lower due fuel scaling factors


Updated Fleet Compositions

► Updated Fleet Composition provided separately for England (outside London), Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Based on ANPR and traffic data analysis undertaken by AEA

► For each area, vehicle type fleet provided for Urban/Rural/Motorway (outside London)

► Separate London vehicle type fleet provided by TfL for Central, Inner, Outer and Motorway

► Default Basic Fleet now includes some alternative vehicles:

► No EFs for Hybrid Diesel Cars – assumed to be same as Diesel Cars until further information is available

1Petrol car

2Diesel car

3Taxi (black cab)4Petrol LGV

5Diesel LGV

6Rigid

7Artic

8Bus and coach

9Motorcycle

10HybridCarPetrol

11PlugInHybridCarPetrol

12HybridCarDiesel

13ElectricCar

14ElectricLGV


Updated Fleet Compositions

► By 2030 15% of the fleet veh/km (Urban-England) is estimated to be hybrid/electric

4% of car fleet by 2020, 17% of the car fleet by 2030


Updated Age Profiles - Cars

► Updated information including ANPR data

► National age profile derived along with London age profile to reflect LEZ (by TFL) (Note: ULEZ not included – only just consulted)

► 60% car veh/km estimated to be Euro 6 by 2020

Petrol and diesel car age profiles broadly similar, Diesel Euro 5 generally higher

Very similar to EFT5.2c slightly faster Euro 6 evolution


Updated Age Profiles - LGV

► 70% car veh/km estimated to be Euro 6 by 2020

Very similar to EFT5.2c


Euro Profiles


Euro Profiles

► HGVs – marginal changes since EFT 5.2c

► ~85% Rigid HGVs veh/km Euro 6 by 2020. ~95% for Artic HGV


How have NOx emissions factors changed?

► Taking account of functions, scaling and fleet weighting

► Petrol cars and buses are similar

► Minor changes to Rigid and Artic HGVs

changes in Euro compositions alongside vehicle size changes

► Diesel Cars and LGVs are significantly higher

30-40% from 2015

updated emissions coefficients, small changes in fuel scaling factors, and updated Euro fleet information

Dominance in fleet from 2015 onwards

2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car 0% -2% -1% 0%

Diesel Car 3% 30% 35% 39%

Diesel LGV 0% 38% 41% 38%

Rigid HGV 0% 4% 5% 1%

Artic HGV 2% 2% 1% -1%

Bus and

Coach

0% 1% 1% 1%

Table 1: Summary of changes in NOx Emission Factor at 30kph

2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car 0% -2% -1% 0%

Diesel Car 3% 29% 35% 38%

Diesel LGV 0% 38% 41% 38%

Rigid HGV 0% 6% 8% 1%

Artic HGV 2% 3% 4% 3%

Bus and

Coach

0% 1% 1% 1%

Table 2: Summary of changes in NOx Emission Factor at 80kph


How have PM exhaust emissions factors changed?


► Petrol cars significantly lower

Early years mainly due to COPERT

Later years fuel scaling

► Diesel cars higher esp beyond 2015

Euro 6 and 6 factors increased and fleet proportions become more dominant

► Diesel LGVs

Reductions in early years because EFs for Euro 1-4 tend to be lower and dominant in fleet. Overtime, Euro and 6 dominant with significantly higher EFs

Table 3: Summary of changes in PM10 Emission Factor at 30kph


2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car-50% -58% -74% -74%

Diesel Car-17% 12% 30% 96%

Diesel LGV-41% -8% 13% 89%

Rigid HGV-44% 3% 7% 4%

Artic HGV-42% 16% 18% 15%

Bus and

Coach-40% 2% 2% 4%

2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car -68% -80% -87% -87%

Diesel Car -7% -10% -2% 46%

Diesel LGV 9% 3% 25% 104%

Rigid HGV -10% -1% 14% 17%

Artic HGV -7% 6% 15% 17%

Bus and

Coach

15% 15% 16% 25%


How have PM exhaust emissions factors changed?


► Rigid and Artic HGVs

Early years mainly due to COPERT and fleet size assumptions changes

At higher speeds – bigger increases beyond 2015 due to Euro VI proportions in fleet with EFs about 50% higher

► Buses

Increased in early years due to higher EFs for Euro II – IV

Euro V and VI factors increased and fleet proportions become more dominant in later year



2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car-50% -58% -74% -74%

Diesel Car-17% 12% 30% 96%

Diesel LGV-41% -8% 13% 89%

Rigid HGV-44% 3% 7% 4%

Artic HGV-42% 16% 18% 15%

Bus and

Coach-40% 2% 2% 4%

2010 2015 2020 2025

Petrol Car -68% -80% -87% -87%

Diesel Car -7% -10% -2% 46%

Diesel LGV 9% 3% 25% 104%

Rigid HGV -10% -1% 14% 17%

Artic HGV -7% 6% 15% 17%

Bus and

Coach

15% 15% 16% 25%


Alternative Technologies - assumptions

► EFT has options for users to provide their own alternative fleet incorporating the following technologies:

Full Hybrid Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric cars and vans

Hybrid-Diesel Cars

Battery Electric cars and vans and Fuel Cell Vehicles (zero tailpipe emissions)

Alternative fuels: CNG Buses, LPG cars, High Strength Biofuels (E85 Bioethanol, B100 Biodiesel)

Retrofitting DPF, SCR

Hybrid Buses

Only including available information – not all alternatives are included

► Scaling factors or emission factors assumed are same as those in NAEI available here

► Current best estimates and Information updated when available

http://naei.defra.gov.uk/resources/NAEI_Emisison_factors_for_alternative_vehicle_technologies_Final_Feb_13.pdf


Other Updates

►User Defined Euro splits and vehicle fleet options improved

►Option 3 allows user to define petrol/diesel car proportions

►Updated v6.0.1 July 2014

fixed issue with CO2 Output (tonnes not kg)

►Updated v6.0.2 Dec 2014

Bug Fix for 100% HDV runtime error in Basic Split

Alternative Vehicles output error fixed

• g/km/sec and annual emissions – g/km output not affected.

►Future updates in line with NAEI methodology changes

© - Copyright 2014 Bureau Veritas – All rights reserved

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk

http://aqma.defra.gov.uk

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/1rsw

[email protected]

[email protected]

Helpdesk Tel: 0800 032 7953

Yvonne Brown

[email protected]

0207 661 0762

Thank You

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/

http://aqma.defra.gov.uk/

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/1rsw

mailto:[email protected]



yvonne brown - dmug 2014

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dft trl emissions factors

abrasion factors

samefuel scaling factors

lowerpetrol vehicles

emissions performanceno

scaling of diesel cars

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