yuri van geest - ndix mckinsey 7s model . what are exos? ... apple 62.6 international ... yuri van...
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Yuri van Geest - Co-Author Exponential Organizations
- Dutch Ambassador of SU
- Managing Director of the
Singularity University Summit Europe
- Co-Founder Quantified Self Europe
- Co-Founder Lean Startup Machine NL
Facebook’s internet.org - Internet Access Globally
Others: - Google’s Project Loon
(with Titan Aerospace) - Drones & Balloons
- Virgin Galactic's LauncherOne - Satellites
- SpaceX - Satellites
Quirky & GE: Wink - Smart Home
Other Platforms: - SmartThings - Belkin WeMo - Nest/Google Brillo - Insteon - Staples Connect - Apple HomeKit - IKEA Home Smart
IKEA & IDEO - Smart Kitchen Concept
The Big 3 - Connected Car Platforms
Telefónica Research: by 2020, 90 percent of vehicles will have built in connectivity
Google & Levi’s: Project Jacquard - Smart Fabrics
21 Inc - Machine-to-machine Bitcoin transactions
Largest Bitcoin startup investment to date: $116M by Peter Thiel, Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, etc.
Exponential Technologies
3D Printing
$40.000 (2007) $100 (2014)
400x cheaper in 7 years
Exponential Technologies
$500.000 (2008) $22.000 (2013)
23x cheaper in 5 years
Industrial Robots
Exponential Technologies
Biotech (DNA Sequencing)
10,000x cheaper in 7 years
Exponential Technologies
Declining Costs Increasing Capabilities
“The average half life of a business competency has dropped from 30 years in
1984 to 5 years today.”
“89% of the Fortune 500 companies from 1955 are
not on the list today.”
“The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has
decreased from: 67 years (1920’s) to 15 years (today).”
“In the next 10 years 40% of all S&P 500
companies will disappear from this list”
Market Cap to a Billion
Why are there ExOs?
Linear > Exponential
Scarcity > Abundance
Time to scale the organization
Source: McKinsey 7S model
What are ExOs?
An Exponential Organization (ExO) is one whose impact (or output) is disproportionally large — at least 10x larger — compared to its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage exponential technologies.
Definition
Software is eating the world, in all sectors In the future every company will become a software company
Mark Andreessen founder of Netscape, renowned Venture Capitalist Andreessen-Horowitz
ExOs: Everything will become digital
• social, mobile & online for front-end functions
• nanotech, robotics, 3D printing, sensors, AI
• crowdsourcing (leveraging the crowd), DIY*, P2P**, crowd companies, AI, Nanofactories
• *Do-It-Yourself: Movement of people who create things without the help of experts or professionals
•**:Peer-to-Peer: a decentralized network leveraging direct interactions between people
Attributes
Linear vs Exponential
Top-down, hierarchical Flat, distributed authority (Holacracy)
Linear vs Exponential
Financial driven, closed (Status Quo)
MTP driven, transparent via dashboards
Linear vs Exponential
Strategy based on extrapolation from past
(5-year plans)
Strategy based on MTP and customer insights
Linear vs Exponential
Linear, sequential thinking
Experimentation and feedback loops
Linear vs Exponential
Process inflexibility and risk intolerance
Flexibility and smart failure celebration
Linear vs Exponential
Innovation from inside, large number of FTEs
Innovation at the edges and from outside sources
Examples of ExOs
ExO Score ExO Score
1 GitHub 76 11 Shapeways 72
2 Airbnb 74 12 Kiva.org 72
3 Uber 73 13 Etsy 72
4 Indiegogo 73 14 Cloudera 71
5 Google 73 15 Waze 71
6 Quirky 72 16 Kickstarter 71
7 Kaggle 72 17 BlaBlaCar 71
8 Pinterest 72 18 Medium 71
9 Reddit 72 19 Valve 70
10 Tumblr 72 20 Wikimedia 70
Best ExOs
See the complete Top 100 at: http://top100.exponentialorgs.com
MTP
Staff on Demand Interfaces
Community & Crowd Dashboards
Algorithms Experimentation
Leveraged Assets Autonomy
Engagement Social
GitHub - GitHub is an open source code and collaboration community with 10 million members, 21 million repositories and market cap of $10B. Key differentiator: technical infrastructure of the internet as organizational design
Best ExOs
MTP
Staff on Demand Interfaces
Community & Crowd Dashboards
Algorithms Experimentation
Leveraged Assets Autonomy
Engagement Social
Xiaomi - Chinese smartphone company, focusing on performance, quality and customer experience. Has a flat organization consisting of 5.000 employees and leverages a Community of 100 million fans for product ideation & iteration.
Best ExOs
Fortune 100 as ExOs ?
Fortune 100 ExO Top 10
Google 72.9 Amazon 66.2 Apple 62.6 International Business Machines (IBM) 61.0 Verizon Communications 58.8 General Electric 56.6 Microsoft 55.9 Cisco Systems, Inc. 55.8 The Walt Disney Company 54.8 Oracle Corporation 54.0
Fortune 100 ExO Lowest Scores
Marathon Petroleum 32.3 Costco Wholesale 32.0 Philip Morris International Inc. 31.6 Hess Corporation 31.3 HCA Holdings, Inc. 31.0 Phillips 66 30.7 Tesoro Corporation 30.0 Valero Energy 29.8 Plains GP Holdings, L.P. 27.5 Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. 26.5 Enterprise Products Partners L.P. 23.0
MTP
Staff on Demand Interfaces
Community & Crowd Dashboards
Algorithms Experimentation
Leveraged Assets Autonomy
Engagement Social
Haier - Chinese appliance maker with 80,000 employees organized in 2005 in 2,000 self-managed units with decision-making authority (Autonomy). Market cap grew from $20B to $60B today in the last 3 years.
Corporate Example
Rent, don’t own assets, people & resources Marginal cost of supply is dropping exponentially for the first time ever (besides marginal costs of demand) >>> double viral loops or network effects
Takeaways
Impact of ExOs
Performance Improvement
Airbnb Traditional Hotels
90x more listings per employee
Performance Improvement
Quirky: 29 days Traditional: 300 days
10x faster product development
Performance Improvement
Local Motors Traditional Car Manufacturers
1000x cheaper & 5-22x faster production
Market Cap improvement (2011 - today)
$20B | 10x $400B | 2,5x $7B | 14x
$46B | 46x $41,2B | 20,5x
$19B | 19,000x +
$2B | 40x
$1B (2013) | 50x
Future Outlook
Future Organizations
• Leverage Blockchain • Distributed Autonomous Organizations (DAOs/DACs) • Algorithmic Corporations • RoboCorps
In 2015: Translations in 12 languages
Yuri van Geest Co-Author Exponential Organizations
+31 6 113 19 290 @vangeest
www.exponentialorgs.com