Your Oaks Stakes Briefing...

Friday, 6th June 2014

Good morning, race profilers,

On the Winning Race Profiles website today….

● The Oaks Stakes (4.00)….● Initial observations….● The Pick of the Profile….● Nick’s Contrarian Picks….● Coming up next on Winning Race Profiles….

The Oaks Stakes (4.00)….

Let’s get straight down to business. Today we employ the Winning Profile stats to target the 2014 renewal of the Oaks

Stakes at Epsom.  

● The Oaks Stakes is a Group 1 race for 3yo fillies contested over the 12f trip. It’s the 3rd classic of the flat season,

the 2nd purely for fillies and the race is the middle leg of what is known as the Fillies’ Triple Crown. Fancied horses

have won their fair share of renewals over the last 2 decades – 11 of the last 20 winners came out of the front 3 in

the market. But this race can produce shocks too – and I am never afraid to play contenders at big prices. Six of the

last 20 winners were sent off at double-figure SPs – as were plenty of placed horses.

Last Friday I distributed my Winning Profile for the race – containing all the key stats and pointers suggested by the

winners of the last 20 renewals. I have now applied that Profile to tomorrow’s field and analyzed the results.

Let’s see what the stats have to tell us….

Initial observations….

As is often the case during an English summer, the weather adds an element of unpredictability to proceedings.

On Thursday night the going at Epsom is described as good (good to soft in places) after 8mm of rain during the last 24

hours. Thursday was dry. Friday is a little bit more up in the air. Rain is forecast at some point during the day – but

whether it comes before 4pm or afterwards is pretty much in the hands of the Gods.

Of course some runners will ultimately prove to be more ground dependent than others – but today’s underfoot surface

won’t be extreme (neither heavy nor firm) and I’m not going to let the issue get too deep into my thinking. Most of the

runners are very lightly raced and concluding that one horse needs this or another can’t cope with that on the basis of so

little racing evidence is an exercise in guesswork – at least to some extent – anyway.

The Pick of the Profile….

The front two in the overnight market – Marvellous and Taghrooda – score strongly on the Winning Profile stats as you’d

expect.

Taghrooda was propelled to favoritism for the Oaks after winning the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. The worry with

her is that the form of that race has been let down repeatedly since.

I can’t argue with the way Marvellous won the Irish 1000 Guineas. She hadLightning Thunder 3 lengths back and the

rest 7 lengths and more. But with that race taking place on very soft ground, and the strength in depth of the race yet to

be conclusively established, I wonder whether her price for today’s race might just flatter her a little.

At any rate other horses score well on the stats. One of them is TARFASHA who, like Taghrooda, is owned by Hamdam

Al Maktoum. The John-Gosden trained horse is considered the principal challenger but Dermot Weld’s filly could well

prove the better of the two.

She’s got speed but has been crying out for a trip and she won quite impressively at Naas last month – giving the

impression there is plenty more to come. On the balance of stats and price – she’s 11/2 on Thursday night – she appeals

most as the Pick of the Profile nomination.

Nick’s Contrarian Picks….

As usual I’m most attracted to interesting runners at bigger prices – especially in a race which has thrown up some

big-priced winners in recent years.

The first of my Contrarian Picks is MADAME CHIANG available at 14s in places overnight. She has done very little

wrong, she ticks a lot of boxes and having had just 2 races (and with a win in the Musidora Stakes already under her belt)

she’s going to be very progressive. The slight worry is that both her appearances – and wins – have come on outright soft

ground. Can she handle a quicker surface? We’ll probably find out today and the doubt is probably factored into her price.

Of course, if we get a bit of rain it will be in her favor.

The other one I’m backing is MOMENTUS at a massive 66s. She’s a maiden, she’s only had 2 races and, as a result, she

doesn’t manage to tick as many Winning Profile boxes as many of the others.

But at Lingfield last time out there was plenty to like about her performance – which really pleased connections. She

finished that race off really well – moving smoothly from the rear of the field. She didn’t get a clear run up the inside –

having to negotiate runners falling back through the field – but she was getting up on the horses that beat her at the

close. Over further I’d have fancied her to beat them.  

She’s a big horse, she’ll come on from that run and she’ll have learnt a lot. There’s a bundle more to come from her. She

might be lacking a little experience and she certainly doesn’t have the traditional Oaks-winning form in the book. But I saw

enough at Lingfield last month to suggest she’s a sight better than the bare stats and the 66s suggest.

I’ll be backing her each-way. Some of the bookies are paying place returns on 4 places.  

The Winning Profile Bet Box….

To recap where the stats point to and where I think the value is in this afternoon’s Oaks Stakes.

●

The Pick of the Profile – TARFASHA (11/2 generally)

●

Nick’s Contrarian Picks – MADAME CHIANG (14s Paddy Power, Skybet &Betbright)

& MOMENTUS (66s generally)

Coming up next on Winning Race Profiles….

That is how today’s race looks from my vantage point. You will no doubt have your own ideas – and that’s exactly as it

should be. You can watch the action unfold live on C4 & RUK.

● I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today when I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on the Group 1 contests run at

Epsom Downs tomorrow – the Coronation Cup and the Derby Stakes.

● Don’t forget that I’ll be providing Juicy Plum selections this evening. We’re going to be targeting the Dash at Epsom

tomorrow afternoon. It always attracts a big field and there will be some live contenders at big prices – right up our

street. Selections will be distributed via emails and posted online at5pm.

However you choose to play today’s big race – enjoy the action.

Until next time, be lucky.

Nick Pullen

Winning Race Profiles

www.winningraceprofiles.co.uk