yoshitaka ishikawa (kyoto university, japan) and kao-lee liaw (mcmaster university, canada)
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The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation. Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan) and Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada) The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of forThe 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan:eign residents of Japan:
salient features and multivariate explanation salient features and multivariate explanation
Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan)
and Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada)
The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies at Hong Kong, China, on 12 July, 2007
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Existing literature focused Existing literature focused on foreign residents in Japanon foreign residents in Japan
◆There has been a proliferation of research since the mid-1980s, when massive immigration started. ◆ Foreigner rate is low (1.6% ) , but absolute number is large (approximately 2 million).
◆It is now an important research subject of all social sciences including geography.
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Difficulty in studying migration Difficulty in studying migration of foreign residents in Japanof foreign residents in Japan
◆ No comprehensive source; general migration patterns have remained unknown.
◆ Published Reports of 2000 Census 1) specific origins are unknown both for immigration and
internal migration 2) detailed migrants’ attributes are unknown ⇒ special application to Japanese Statistics
Bureau to obtain micro data samples
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Three perspectives to explain Three perspectives to explain destination choicedestination choice
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Comparison of interprefectural migration bComparison of interprefectural migration between foreign residents and total populatetween foreign residents and total populat
ionion
Foreign Residents Total Population
Groupings of Prefectures
Net-migration Rate
Net-migration Rate
(Persons) ( % ) (Persons) ( % )
The Three Largest Metropolitan Areas
-570 -0.10 164,912 0.28
Tokyo Area 354 0.14 235,743 0.74 Nagoya Area 1,848 2.13 21,893 0.21
Osaka Area -2,772 -1.15 -92,724 -0.53 Metropolitan Fringes 600 1.21 32,280 0.41Manufacturing Stronghold 1,894 4.45 -10,552 -0.16Tohoku Region -372 -2.44 -41,423 -0.44Rest of Japan -1,552 -1.52 -145,217 -0.39
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Net-migration rate of Japanese Net-migration rate of Japanese interprefectural migration, 1995-2000interprefectural migration, 1995-2000
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Major foreign residents in Major foreign residents in JapanJapan(2000)(2000)
Census Alien registration
ethnicity 1,310,545 1,686,444 (1.03%) (1.33%)
Korean 528,904 635,269 Chinese 252,680 335,575 Brazil 188,190 254,394 Filipino 93,352 144,871 Others 247,419 316,335
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General features by major General features by major ethnicityethnicity
(Persons) (%) (Persons) (%) (Persons) (%) (Persons) (%)
The Three LargestMetropolitan Areas -226 -0.07 790 0.90 -78 -0.22 -1,126 -2.82
Tokyo Area 1,378 1.40 812 1.39 -170 -0.63 -1,636 -11.14 Nagoya Area -12 -0.03 116 1.58 86 1.57 1,324 6.29 Osaka Area -1,592 -0.80 -138 -0.62 6 0.18 -814 -19.45
Metropolitan Fringes 276 3.14 230 4.91 82 1.83 -106 -0.78
Manufacturing Stronghold 130 1.44 -76 -1.67 -16 -0.44 1,510 8.39
Tohoku Region -52 -0.72 -218 -6.90 54 2.98 -88 -8.49
Rest of Japan -128 -0.20 -726 -5.53 -42 -0.52 -158 -2.49
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
net-migration net-migration net-migration net-migration
6.6 14.9 9.5 25.4Groupings of Prefectures
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
Korean Chinese Filipino Brazilian
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General features General features by educational attainmentby educational attainment
(Persons) (%) (Persons) (%) (Persons) (%) (Persons) (%)The Three LargestMetropolitan Areas -698 -0.58 -960 -0.41 150 0.31 826 0.73
Tokyo Area -724 -1.96 -1,076 -1.18 158 0.68 1,776 2.70 Nagoya Area 536 2.14 1,040 2.81 250 3.71 72 0.58 Osaka Area -510 -0.87 -924 -0.87 -258 -1.33 -1,022 -2.96
Metropolitan Fringes 280 2.22 130 0.64 -8 -0.23 186 2.54Manufacturing Stronghold 504 4.44 924 5.00 134 4.02 196 3.54Tohoku Region -24 -0.77 14 0.21 -78 -6.83 -208 -6.19Rest of Japan -62 -0.24 -108 -0.25 -198 -2.75 -1,000 -5.56
19.19net-migration net-migration net-migration net-migration
Universityinterprefecturalmigration rate(%)
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)
interprefecturalmigration rate(%)Groupings of Prefectures
Less than HS High School College
7.31 8.77 13.11
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Nested logit modelNested logit model
Departure sub-model:
⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of stay in, or departure from, the prefecture of usual residence in 1995
⇒sample size: 69,308 persons
Destination choice sub-model :
⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of a particular destination among 46 prefectures
⇒ sample size: 42,301 persons
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Explanatory variablesExplanatory variables
Individual attributes <De, DC> : age, educational attainment, sex, ethnicity, family status
Labour market related <De, DC> : employment opportunity, income level
Co-ethnic attraction <De, DC>
Marital opportunity : <De, DC>
Prefectural size <De, DC> Competition with new immigrants <De, DC> Spatial separation <DC>: distance, contiguity Inclusive variable <De>
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Why is international marriage in Why is international marriage in Tohoku region important?Tohoku region important?
● The stem family system is dominant in such region as Tohoku. To maintain this system, marriage is essential for household head’s son as successor.
●Due to imbalanced sex ratio, the issue of marriage squeeze for male population is serious in eastern half of Japan.
⇒Tohoku has both the first and second conditions. Unless household head’s son find Japanese new bride, he tends to look for his bride with foreign nationality.
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New Immigration and Interprefectural MigrationNew Immigration and Interprefectural Migration
0 400km
都 道 府 県 別 に み た 外 国 人 の 国 外 か ら の 転 入 と 転 入 超 過
( 人 )
500 100 0- 500
net i nt er nal mi gr at i on
40000人100001000
f r om oveseas
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Application result Application result of departure submodelof departure submodel
Explanatory Variable Coef. t-ratioConstant -3.4798 -61.2
Personal Attributes College Educ. 1.2311 4.0University Educ. 2.6369 10.5 Male 0.0620 2.2 Aged 15-19 0.6846 10.1Aged 20-24 1.1576 20.9Aged 25-29 1.2404 24.5Aged 30-34 1.1491 22.9Aged 35-39 0.9135 17.7Aged 40-44 0.6441 11.3Aged 45-49 0.3815 6.0 Chinese 0.3221 6.2Brazilian 1.2124 10.7Filipino -0.2421 -3.8 Yome -0.2922 -2.0
Place Attributes and Interactions Manufacturing Employment Growth *Brazilian -0.0604 -6.7 Income Level * College Educ. -0.2649 -2.9Income Level * University Educ. -0.5534 -6.9 Ethnic Similarity * Korean -0.0287 -9.2Ethnic Similarity * Chinese -0.0130 -4.1Ethnic Similarity * Brazilian -0.0610 -10.0Ethnic Similarity * University Educ. 0.0084 2.0 New Immigration 0.0550 10.1 Bridal Opportunity * Brazilian Tsuma -0.0239 -2.5Stem Family Region * Yome -2.4630 -2.0 Ln(Employment Size) -0.1853 -5.0 Inclusive Variable 0.0374 1.2
Rho-square 0.1178
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Application result of destination choice suApplication result of destination choice submodelbmodel
Explanatory Variable Coef. t-ratio Manufacturing Employment Growth * Brazilian 0.1869 22.3Manufacturing Employment Growth * Filipino 0.0585 3.3Service Employment Growth * Korean 0.0295 3.4Service Employment Growth * Chinese 0.0805 7.2Service Employment Growth * Filipino 0.0451 2.0 Income Level * High School Educ. 0.1999 2.6Income Level * College or University Educ. 0.5431 7.6 Ethnic Similarity * Korean 0.0376 9.2Ethnic Similarity * Chinese 0.0227 5.3Ethnic Similarity * Brazilian 0.0727 14.8Ethnic Similarity * Filipino 0.0258 2.2Ethnic Similarity * College Educ. -0.0114 -2.0Ethnic Similarity * University Educ. -0.0160 -3.5 New Immigration * At Most High School Educ. -0.0387 -5.2 Stem Family Region * Yome 0.9704 2.0 Ln(Employment Size) 0.8382 24.1 Distance * At Most College Educ -0.7465 -31.9Distance * University Educ. -0.5486 -20.9Contiguity 0.5774 13.5Rho-square 0.2887
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ConclusionConclusion
Major destinations: Nagoya metropolitan area, manufacturing stronghold (not Tokyo metropolitan area)
Highly mobile persons: Brazilian, graduates from university
Application result of nested logit model <departure sub-model> ethnicity, age, educational attainment, c
ompetition with new immigrants, co-ethnic attraction <destination choice sub-model> spatial separation, prefectural si
ze, employment opportunity, co-ethnic attraction
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Implications of the Implications of the findingsfindings
Comparison of explanatory power of international marraige between new immigration and interprefectural migration: Role of international marriage in the former is larger than that in the latter.
Comparison of migration pattern between foreigner and Japanese: Net inflow to Tokyo metropolitan area for Japanese is much larger than that for foreigner.
⇒Interprefectural migration by foreign residents has contributed to a reduction of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.
”⇒ hollowization” of manufacturing employment opportunity may lead to an intensification of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.