“Get those empty buses off our streets!”

Whitchurch-Stouffville Council listens… and YRT Bus Ridership Plummets

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Feb 7, 2013

Dear Mayor and Council,

The new 2013 monthly YRT Ridership Reports (Rts 9 & 15) confirm the negative impact

the YRT 2012 Service Plan has had on Stouffville (the goal: to "match service with demand").

December Stats:

2012: 6034 (down 6% over Dec 2010)

2011: (labour disruption)

2010: 6414 (up 33% over Dec 2009)

2009: 4820 (up 36% over Dec 2008)

2008: 3542 (up 53% over Dec 2007)

2007: 2310

November Stats:

2012: 6996 (down 4% over 2010)

2011: (labour disruption)

2010: 7257 (up 44% over Nov 2009

2009: 5028 (up 17% over Nov 2008)

2008: 4293 (up 25% over Nov 2007)

2007: 3201

It is important to notice that Stouffville YRT ridership has been increasing significantly every

year--until the new service plan took effect this past spring (I outlined the problems with the

current Route 9 in a previous email; see here).

The drop is not due to last year’s labour disruption, but began with local Stouffville service cuts.

In an earlier email I provided the details for July, Aug, September 2012 ridership (below), which

detailed a 14% decline in ridership over 2011. Recently released statistics for November and

December 2012 are even more concerning: ridership for those months is down compared to

2010 numbers (!) -- even as our population grew by 2,300 individuals per year.

The YRT transit cuts have been bad for our town—for youth, for commuters, for businesses. I

have detailed the problems in a letter to the Stouffville Free Press on January 1, 2013.

I ask the Mayor (who also chairs the Region's Transportation and Works Committee) to

advocate on behalf of the residents of Whitchurch-Stouffville. No council members did so when

the YRT cuts were proposed, though it is part of council's mandate:

The Town shall encourage the Region of York to develop a regional transit system in

accordance with the policies of Section 7.2 of the Regional Official Plan. In particular, the

Town shall encourage the creation of a regional transit system which will link the

Community of Stouffville with other communities in the Region, and which will also

provide internal service within the Community itself. (Community of Stouffville Secondary

Plan, 12.8.3.2)

I ask Mr. Leary (YRT CEO) and Mr. Kawun (YRT Planner) to look at Stouffville's route in detail,

together with Mr. McNeely (Town Planner), and consider re-establishing a level of service which

allows ridership growth to continue to occur in our town. This is part of the Region's mandate:

... [i]t is the policy of [Regional] Council ... [25] To achieve higher transit usage

by supporting improvements in service, convenient access and good urban design,

including the following: a) minimizing walking distances to planned and existing transit ...

. The Region will plan to provide transit service so that the distance to a transit stop in

the Urban Area is within 500 metres of 90% of residents, and within 200 metres of 50%

of residents. ... d) directing medium- and high-density urban development to rapid transit

corridors. (Sec. 7.2, “Moving People and Goods; Transit,” p. 100).

In previous emails I've shown exactly which parts of urban Stouffville are further than 500

meters to a transit stop. And many who are in walking distance find the route is no longer

convenient for their needs (e.g., Millard and Ninth area residents).

If we get this right, with relatively brisk service to the hospital transit hub, transit usage in Town

can continue to grow significantly, as it did in 2010, 2009, 2008 etc.

Thank you for giving this your best attention.

NB: Earlier letters to Mayor and Council here: Oct 30, 2012; Oct 26, 2012; Mar 8, 2012

Sincerely,

Arnold Neufeldt-Fast

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Background: On April 22, 2012, the two York Region Transit routes operating in the Community of

Stouffville--Routes 15 and 9--were merged with the migration of Route 15 to Route 9.

(see next pages)

Compiled by Arnold Neufeldt-Fast, November 16, 2012; up-dated Feb 7, 2013

(sent to MayorAndCouncil@townofws.ca and YRT manager, A. Kawun)

What impacts/improvements has this merger had on the Community of Stouffville?

(YRT 2012 Annual Service Plan: Proposed Initiatives, August 2011, slide 30)

Ridership Summary for Stouffville YRT Routes 9 & 15

2010 Monthly Boardings (Routes 9 + 15)

2011 Monthly Boardings (Routes 9 + 15)

2012 Monthly Boardings (Ridership migration of Rt 15 to Rt. 9)

Dec (2660+3754=) 6414

Ridership up 33% over Dec/09

Dec/08 and /07

Labour Disruption

6034 boardings

Ridership down 6% over Dec/10

Nov (2624+4633=) 7257

Ridership up 44% over Nov/09;

Nov /08 and 07

Labour Disruption 6996 boardings

Ridership down 4% over Nov/10

Oct (1619+3533=) 5152 1972+2277=) 4249 (Note: Labour disruption began

6586 boardings

Ridership up over Oct/10

Oct 24)

Sept (3223+2081=) 5304

Ridership up 7% over Sept/09

(4094+2478=) 6572

Ridership up 24% over Sept/10;

YRT total up 13.1%

5623 boardings

Ridership down 14% over Sept/11;

YRT total up 0.1%

Aug. (2556+1267=) 3823

Ridership up 26% over Aug/09

(3305+1238=) 4543

Ridership up 19% over Aug/10;

YRT up 14.6%

3655 boardings

Ridership down 19.5% over Aug/11;

YRT total up 7.4%

July (2807+749=) 3556

Ridership up 2% over July/09

(2973+914=) 38871

Ridership up 9.3% over July/10;

YRT up 10.6%

3625 boardings

Ridership down 7% over July/11;

YRT up 2.2%

3-month total: 12,683 (up 11% over 2009 5-month total: 31,506

3-month total: 15,002 (up 18%) 3-month total: 12,903 (down 14%) 5-month total: 32,519

W-S mid-yr pop total: 36,500, 06/2010

W-S mid-yr pop up 6% over 06/2010, or 2,150 ppl, total 38,650.

W-S mid-yr pop up 6.6% over 06/2011, or 2,550 ppl., total 41,200

As Whitchurch-Stouffville’s population grew in the past years at approximately 6% per year, transit

ridership grew even faster--up 18% between 2010 and 2011 for the months of July, August and

September. Ridership growth in Stouffville was significantly stronger than YRT-ridership growth across

the system for that same period (up about 13.5%). This growth has now come to a sudden halt.

Why the new route does not work: One example

The merger of the two routes has had a significant impact on some parts of the Community of

Stouffville, especially for those residents north of Main Street. For example (my situation):

On April 21, 2012, a commuter boarding Route 9 at Millard and Ninth travelled 15 minutes to

get to the M-S Hospital transit hub.

After the merger of routes this past summer the same commuter (me) has two options:

o walk 806 metres from Millard and Ninth to Parkview, and then board the bus for a 14 minute

ride to the Hospital; OR

o Bus from Millard and Ninth (now only every 42 minutes), via downtown, the library, Tenth

Line, Hoover and back to Ninth, and north to Parkview (22 minutes); wait 20 minutes; then

travel south 14 minutes from Parkview to the Hospital transit hub. Total: 56 minutes.

With less frequency, and up to 41 minutes extra each way for some commuters to get to hospital hub,

the new transit plan for the Community of Stouffville has made more families automobile-dependent

again.

1 There is a discrepancy in the monthly riding summary for Routes 9 and 15 in July 2011; the figure given for

comparison in the July 2012 summary equals 3887; the July 2011 summary total is 3706.

Routes are not close enough to where the people are

The (admittedly unprofessional!) map of the Community of Stouffville below highlights the 500 metre

(red) and 200 metre (green) distances from the nearest transit routes (YRT Route 9 as well as GO-

Transit). Yellow indicates settled areas beyond the 500 metre limit; blue indicates soon-to-be-developed

lands well outside the 500 metre limit. As the Town’s Phase 2 lands are developed, far more than 10% of

residents are finding themselves beyond 500 metres from a transit stop, and a majority of residents are

well beyond 200 metre distance (compare the York Region policy above).

The combination of YRT routes 9 and 15 in Spring 2012 meant, as the YRT itself noted, an “increase in

walking distance” and an “increase [in] travel time” (see 2012 YRT/VIVA Transit Plan, slide 30).

The Town needs to be vigilent in its “encouragement” of the Region to supply a plan and strategy—well

in advance--for the provision of “convenient [transit] access” for new residents in the new Phase 2 lands

opening early in 2013 (e.g., in the north-west corner of Stouffville). The most immediate need is for bus

service along the entire length of Millard Street.

These items for “encouragement” or advocacy by the Town on behalf of Stouffville residents should also

include a plan to “direct” residents in “medium- and high-density urban development to rapid transit

corridors.” That is, via YRT and/or GO-Transit, residents in the Community of Stouffville need to be able

to get to the Hwy. 7 rapid transit corridor quickly. This has not been the case for large portions of

Stouffville since Spring 2012.

Why “needs to...”? The specific policies, plans and schedules are the implications of the larger, pro-

active regional objective, namely to “to reduce automobile dependence by enhancing opportunities for

residents and workers to walk, cycle, take transit, and carpool” (York Region Official Plan, 7.1).

Whitchurch-Stouffville should be an active regional partner in the “solution” (i.e., enhancing

opportunities for the reduction of automobile dependence), not in the problem (i.e., making it difficult

for residents to leave their car at home).

York Region’s five and ten year transit ridership projections, forecasting, assumptions, and scenarios

have, perhaps in some significant way, left the Community of Stouffville under-supported in 2012.

The longer YRT Five Year Plan for 2006 to 2011 began with population assumptions which, on the one

hand, seriously underestimated the Community of Stouffville’s actual growth while, on the other, over-

estimated the growth in other parts of the Region, including East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King, Richmond

Hill and Newmarket.

York Region Population projections (2005/2006) for 2011 (compared to actual) as used by YRT

(Viva Next, “Yonge Street Corridor Public Transit Improvements Environmental Assessment” [20/07/2005], 4-2)

Whitchurch-Stouffville: expected 31,000; actual 37,628 (or 21% higher than planned) Markham expected 281,000; actual 301,709 (or 17% higher) Vaughan: expected 254,000; actual 288,301 (or 13% higher) --- Richmond Hill: expected 191,000; actual 185,541 (or 3% lower than planned) Aurora: expected 56,000; actual 53,203 (or 5% lower) Newmarket: expected 87,000; actual 79,978 (or 8% lower) Georgina: expected 51,000; actual 43,517 (or 15% lower) King: expected 25,000; actual 19,899 (or 20% lower) East Gwillimbury: expected 32,000; actual 22,473 (or 30% lower)

While these community forecasts are “old,” they provided the framework for plans developed up to 2011. On the whole they were very accurate (York Region: expected pop of 1,008,000; actual 1,032,524, or 2.4% higher than planned). However Stouffville’s growth far exceeded the Region’s expectations. In contrast, growth projections for Newmarket, Georgina, King and East Gwillimbury—and even Richmond Hill and Aurora—were not met. Perhaps the YRT was flexible and adapted in the intervening years, but that was not the case for Stouffville: Stouffville’s YRT transit service has been considerably downgraded since October 2006, even though population growth soared beyond the Region’s projections during that same time. The numbers above hide an even more telling story. Statistics Canada data released in October 2012 showed the Community of Stouffville experienced 100.5% growth between 2006 and 2011, i.e., from 12,411 to 24,886 residents (or an average of 2,495 new residents per year--in housing designed to be transit supportable). Yet over this same period, Stouffville has lost significant transit service. The current (2012) population estimate for the Community of Stouffville is 27,100. The Town’s newest projections—in the November 2012 Growth Management Strategy Report—anticipate that the population of the Community of Stouffville will grow 78% between 2012 and 2031 to 48,255, while each of the other Whitchurch-Stouffville communities will decline (7% in total) during that same period. My request is that Council take a more active—even pro-active—role to ensure that the YRT is fully aware of our growth patterns, that we are serviced according to the Region’s own standards (now), and that a very clear plan is submitted for transit support for the new residential communities opening up in 2013 and 2014. Many residents in town want to be part of the solution, but we need the right routes to make this work.

Arnold Neufeldt-Fast

672 Millard St.

Stouffville, Ontario

L4A 0B2