ymfyp international portfolio powerpoint
DESCRIPTION
International Portfolio management through Stocktrak (US and foreign stocks, US and foreign bonds, futures, options, foreign-exchange-exposure hedging strategies)TRANSCRIPT
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Davindra BasdeoBenjamin BisetRaphaël Comte
Pierre-Marie GigonAlexia Klein
Sarah Lombardo
Young Money For Young *****Portfolio Presentation
Finance 230
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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US Fiscal Policy
Reduction of the deficit by $4
trillion over 12 years
Annual Domestic Spending
Healthcare
Spending
Defense Budget
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Monetary Policy
Operation Twist
Purchase : $400 bn of Long Term securities
Sell : $400 bn of Short Term securities
Forecasts
2.5% to 2.8% for real GDP growth
5.0% to 6.0% for unemployment
rate
1.6% to 2.0% for the inflation rate
No other QE
Fed Funds Rate : maintained between 0.00% to 0.025%
Decisions
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GDP
<10%>
2008 Crisis: Fell by 10%Consumption, Business Investments, Gov Spending
Decreased
2009-2010: GDP rebound with QE1
2011: GDP increased Consumption in durable goods, Business Investments
2012: GDP expected to increase by 2.5%Consumer will spend againEmployment will improve with businesses investments
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Unemployment
August to December, “the unemployment rate has declined by 0.6%.”
0.6%
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GOLD
Increased by 40% (January to August) Safe place to invest
China’s GDP rose by 21%
Decreased To a price of $1650/ounce until January 2012Strenghtening of US Dollar
Increased by 22% in One Year <13%>
+40%
+22%
+9%
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OIL Increased by 25%
Peak in April Riots in Middle East and Arabic Countries
Decreased by 30% Investors looking fo StabilityExcess of Production
Increased by 24%European effort to solve the debt crisis Decrease in Production
+25%<30%
>+24%
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Treasury Bonds• Used to be the safest form of investment
o Rates started to decline after 9/11
o Decline accelerated after 2008
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• Return for US Corporate Bond yields higher than Municipal Bond yields
o Suggests higher risk for Municipal Bonds
• Decrease in both bonds rates from 2010 till 2011
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• Yield Curves January 2011 higher than January 2012o Higher number of treasuries sold in 2011
o Recovery slowed in 2011
• Optimistic forecast for the year 2012o Due to unsafe European bonds
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European Bonds• Rise in 10-year bonds since early 2010
o Started with Greece in December 2009
o Continued with Ireland, Spain and Italy
• Forecasts:o Fall of the Eurozone bonds continues, but not as
substantially
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Dollar and Euro
June 2010: Hungary and Greece debt
concerns
Nov. 2010: QE2$600B of US Treasuries purchase
Dec. 2011: Bank of China lowered Banks Reserve Requirements
Standard&Poor ’s downgrade
Beginning 2011: US debt crisis
concerns
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Forecasts
Always seen as a safe-haven: Appreciation after S&P’s sovereign
downgrades including France. The USD, measured by the trade-
weighted DXY index, has increased 8% since early September.
Asian markets will probably be overvalued due to fewer exports to Europe, leading the US currency to strengthen.
The Euro will continue to weaken in 2012:
Worsening debt crisis in Europe
Eurozone’s inflation “remains above the bank’s 2% target” leading to higher yields in the short term.
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Stock Market The Dow Jones
4% increase due to overall
recovery
-Ben Bernanke speech about no future quantitative easing-Increase in profits of large companies
-Ended 5.5% at the end of
the year - Biggest
increase in 13 years
Standard&Poor’s downgrade of US
Treasury Securities from
AAA to AA
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Nasdaq and S&P500
-Same curves trends as the Dow Jones: similar correlation between
the three indexes.
-The Dow Jones was the only index which rose 5.5%.
-The S&P 500 remained almost the same (0.4% decrease).
-The Nasdaq decreased by 1.8%
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Forecasts
US stock market will continue to be
considered the “safest” market to invest in, as the situation of the rest of the world becomes more uncertain (e.g.:
Europe)
Fragile economy: Dow Jones more attractive.
“The U.S. will continue to be the 'least bad' place to invest for a number of years."
George Feiger, CEO of Contango
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YMFYP’s Strategy
25% Bonds
75% Stocks, Options,
Futures
MODERATE AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY
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STOCKS, MUTUAL FUND, ETF
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Halliburton
• $32.61 billion company
• Created in 1919• Traded on the New
York Stock Exchange, Quote: HAL
• Operates in 80 countries
Industry
• Oil and gas equipment services
• Provides exploration, development and production of oil and gas
• Sperry drilling, wireline and perforating, testing and subsea
Major Competitors
• Schlumberger Limited
• Baker Hughes Inc
• Technip
BETA
1.58
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Hot News
“This was a record year for our company.Our business
has nearly doubled in size over the last 5
years.”
January 25th
• Smart strategies in its quest to gain loyal customers: $23 million spending in strategic projects
• Hyper-efficient business model which goes beyond 24-hour operations. Intangible benefits, strengthening existing relations with customers.
January 23rd
Q4 2011 earnings results release.
CEO Dave Lesar:
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Short Position: FSLR• Sector started to underperform end of 2010
• Company’s stock had been falling for a long periodo Was expected to file for bankruptcy by the end of the year
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Our case: January 27thWorst Case: February 9th
Best Case: March 7th
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Worst/Best Case(à dire à l’oral)
• Worst Case
o Increase in stock price until February 9th:
Continuation of the drop due to the previous announcement
Biggest intraday gain since January 27th
• Best Case
o 1 month drop: February 9th – March 7th
Delay on Toledo permit: only US production facility
FSLR losses of $413M in the 4th quarter posted
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Fidelity
• Fund inception in 1997
• Net Asset of $1.30B
• Quote: FNARX
Sharpe RatioFNARX Category
Treynor RatioFNARX Category
Major Competitors
- Ivy Global Natural Ressources
- JHancock2 Global Timber1
BETA
1.25
0.74 0.64
15.29 12.34
3 Years
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FNARX-Long YMFYP Best Case Worst Case
Bought $34,22 $34,22 $34,22
Sold $34,53 $36,31 $33,72
Number of Contracts 2 922 2 922 2 922
Long Amount ($) $99 990,84 $99 990,84 $99 990,84
Sell Amount ($) $100 896,66 $106 097,82 $98 529,84
<Commission> $10,00 $10,00 $10,00
Gain / Loss $895,82 $6 096,98 $-1 471,00
Return 0,91% 6,11% -1,46%
Bought 01/25/2012 01/25/2012 01/25/2012
Sold 03/15/2012 02/24/2012 01/30/2012
Total Gain / Loss $895.82 $6 106,98 $-1 461,00
# of days 50 30 5
Annualised 6,52% 73,29% -105,20%
0.91%
6.11%
6.52%
73.29%
-105.20
%
-1.46
%
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FNARX
$34.22
$33.72
$36.31
$34.53
- One of the world’s largest mutual fund companies
- Short term period: 80% analysts agreed to buy FNARX
- Medium term period: 100% agreed to buy
- Long term period 67% said to buy
- 1.46 %
6.11 % 0.91 %
$34.22
$ 895.82
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Exchange Traded Fund
ICF
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Large Cap Companies(> $10 Bn)
100%
Exposure
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10.15%
1 year
33.65%
3 years
> 21.32
%
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+45.25%
+13.97%
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0.73
0.71 N/A
3 years 10 years5 years
N/A N/A6.64
Sharpe Ratio
Treynor Ratio
X 10.43
0.07
N/A
6.43
≈
ICF Category ICF ICF CategoryCategory
+ 0.23
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Networthy ETF Inflows : ICF
4.2% increase in the
outstanding units week over week
Indicator of quality and
performance
Hot News
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Are U.S. REIT ETFs A Buy In 2012?
Improving US economic Data
Gain of interest and confidence from investors in the
domestic real estate market
Investors seeking to expand
exposure to the domestic real estate market
Sign of possible increase of returns in
the US real estate market positions
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Foreclosure Properties Fall to 20% of Home Buys
Foreclosure and
distressed sales
20% Recoverag
e of the housing sector
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Subprime Debt Insured by FHA Climbs in Bet on Housing Recovery: Mortgages
New refinancing program
US homeowners allowed to
refinance their mortgages
New mortgages with very low interest rates
Improvement of investors
confidence in the housing
sector
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$ 942.90 $ 3 515.67 $ -1 980.09
7.20% 23.82% -25.40%
0.94 % 3.51% -1.98%
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$74.42
$72.95
$75.12
$77.03
Drop in the Real Estate Market
Constant recovery of the
Real Estate Market
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BONDS
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10 year German Bonds
Largest economy in the EU1st
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Higher Probability
for the Bond Price to increase
Higher Probability
for the Bond Yield to decrease
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Top News
ECB slashes 2012 growth outlook, economy may contract
Euro Zone Expected
Contraction
Panic of Investors /
Loss of Confidence
Germany seen as a
safe haven
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Germany sells bonds guaranteed to lose money
Germany sold bonds with
negative yield
Investors are desperately
searching for a safe place
to invest
Demand for German Bonds
expected to increase
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0.94%$4 616.95
4.64%$933.31
$2 959.452.98%
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Treasury Bonds
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5 year T-Bonds
Short Term Bonds
Long Term Bonds
Operation Twist Process
S
PP
YY
D
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OPTIONS
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Call Option PolyporeOption Price
$1.65
Stock Price
$40.73
Exercise Price
$45.00
Leverage
25
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
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Call Option: PolyporeOn Stocktrak
Call Polypore: PPO YMFYPStock price $40,73 Exercise price $45,00 Option Price per share $1,65 # shares / contract 100Price / contract $165,00 Breakeven price $46,65 # contracts 60,61real # contracts 60Investment $9 900,00 #shares at actual price 243# shares at option price 6000Leverage 25 Took the Put on 2/1/12Sold on 2/18/12Sold at (option price) $- Gain/Loss $-9 900,00 Commission $-20,00 Total Gain / Loss $-9 920,00 Return (%) -100% Gain / Loss $-9 920,00 # of days 17Annualized Return (%) -2100,71
Off Stocktrak Call Polypore: PPO YMFYP Best CaseStock Price $ 40,73 $ 40,73 Exercise Price $ 45,00 $ 45,00 Option price per share $ 1,65 $ 1,65 # shares / contratc 100 100option price / contract $ 165,00 $ 165,00 Breakeven price $ 46,65 $ 46,65 # contracts 60,61 60,61real #contracts 60 60Investment $ 9 900,00 $ 9 900,00 #shares at actual price 243 243# shares at option price 6000 6000Leverage 25 25 Did not exercise until 2/18/12 Exercised on 2/6/12Exercised price $ 48,99
Total Gain / Loss $ -9
900,00 $ 14
040,00 Return (%) -100,0% 141,8%
Gain / Loss $ -9
900,00 $ 14
040,00 Days 17 5Annualized Return (%) -2096,47 10108,8
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$40.73 $48.9
9
BE$46.65
Short term analyst opinion: 40% sell
Medium term analyst opinion: 100% sell
Long term analyst opinion: 100% sell
- 29 .92%
Expiration Date
Exercice Price$45.00
$ -9,920
- 16.28%
New Competitor enter in the market
A couple of analysts downgraded Polypore on the news
Call Option: Polypore
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Call Option MS1218B19:
Morgan Stanley
• $37.96 billion financial holding company
• Created in 1935• Traded on the New
York Stock Exchange
• Quote: MS
Industry
• Investment brokerage – national industry in the financial sector
• Segments of operation: Institutional Securities, Global Wealth Management, Asset Management
Major Competitors
• Goldman Sachs
• JPMorgan Chase
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JANUARY 19TH
Q4 EARNINGS REPORT: $275 MILLION LOSS ON A SETTLEMENT WITH THE BOND INSURER MBIA
“THE INVESTMENT BANK'S LOSS WAS LESS THAN WALL STREET WAS EXPECTING.”
February 1st
• News on Facebook’s IPO regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Facebook confirmed that Morgan Stanley will be the leading underwriter in its IPO, which “could generate as much as $500 million for the investment banks.”
Hot News
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Option Price
$0.77
Stock Price
$19.13
Exercise Price
$19.00
Leverage
25
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
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Freight Transportatio
n
Supply Chain Management
Services
Logistics
Trailer Manufacturin
g
Option Price
$2.75
Stock Price
$32.43
Exercise Price
$30.00
Leverage
12
Expiry Date
March 17th, 2012
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+56.03%
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8 Stocks to Ride the Economic Revival
Increase in the US economy
Boost Conway’s company
Expected Increase in the
stock value
Hot News
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Net Income (Q4 2011 vs Q4 2010)
Operating Income(Q4 2011 vs Q4 2010)
+ 958%
+ 316%
Revenue (Q4 2011 vs Q4 2010)
+ 8.7%
Incredible Profitability
Management, Management
Efficiency and Cost Control
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On Stocktrack Off Stocktrack
35.07%$3 472
-100%-$9 900 $4,824
48,7%
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$32.43
$34.09
Announcement of installation of new technology
EP = $30.00
BE = $32.75
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Put Options
EXXON
- Energy products
- Major player in the industry
- Created in 1870
- Irving, Texas
Oil & Natural Gas Sector
- $42,845B Market Capitalization
- Highly volatile
-Affected by the recent tensions in OPEC
countries
Competitors
- Royal Dutch Shell PLC
- BP, PLC
- Total SA
- Chevron Corporation
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Option Price
$1.86
Stock Price
$83.91
Exercise Price
$85.00
Leverage
45
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
Put Options
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Exxon News Bloomberg Calendar
EIA Petroleum Report : Announced drop in oil demand, increase in
inventory, and in price Bloomberg
Drop in Polish operations The Street
Exxon lost its No 1 position in the stock market Expects a cash shortage
Barchart Supply in US Exxon Natural gas too high
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On Stocktrak
Off Stocktrak
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Put Option – Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Healthcare Sector Major drug
manufacturing industry Top competitors: Bayer
AG, Merck & Co. Inc., and Novartis AG
Recent recall so expected stock prices to fall
Recommendation: Strong Sell
Option Price
$0.34
Stock Price
$20.89
Exercise Price
$21.00
Leverage
61
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
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Put Option – Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
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Put Option – Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Strike Price: $21.00
BE: $20.66
$-10,016
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Put Option Sony Corporation
Electronic Equipment Industry
Flooding in Thailand
Strong Yen
Decrease in Sales in Europe and in the United States
Net loss of MORE than $2BILLION
Option Price
$0.20
Stock Price
$17.62
Exercise Price
$17.00
Leverage
88
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
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Put Option SONY Corporation
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Put Option SONY
$17.62 $16.85
Strike Price: $17.00
BE: $16.80
$-7,320
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Put Option SONY
Option Price
$0.35
Stock Price
$19.36
Exercise Price
$17.00
Leverage
55
Expiry Date
February 18th, 2012
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Put Option SONY
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Put Option SONY
$19.36
Strike Price: $17.00
BE: $16.65
$-2,680
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SUMMARY OPTIONS
$8,923
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FUTURES
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Short Future Position on the Japanese Yen
Events that affected the future
EIA petroleum report
Bernanke Speech
BOJ intervention
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EIA weekly petroleum report
Petroleum report Depreciation of USD → led the future USDJPY
down Increase in supply, and drop in demand
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Bernanke's speech about tax cut program
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BOJ intervention• Short position took on February 8th
o Earthquake
o Constant intervention of the BOJ
• GDP declineo Shrink in output
o Export decline: Fall of 11.9% in 4th quarter 2011
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Cont’d• JPY low benchmark interest rates
o Drop in investors confidence in the US and Europe
o JPY is seen as the safest currency
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Light Crude Oil
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Crude Gains on Surprise US Stocks Fall
Clashes in Nigeria
Potential Oil Supply Chain Disruptions
Hot News
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Iran asks OPEC members not to raise oil output
Iran Embargo
Drop in oil supply for Western countries
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Demand for Crude Oil expected to increase
Crude Rises On Hopes For Greek Austerity Plan
Expectations that Greece will approve
austerity measures
First step in Euro debt
crisis solvation
Expected Improvement of European economies
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95.35% 227.75% -350.32%
$ 15 820.00
$ 1 317 209.00
$ -11 660.00
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$99.68
$98.71
$109.77
$101
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Short Position on Natural Gas
Gas stocks: currently 25.4% above the 5 year average and 24.6% higher than the same period last year.
The Northeastern and Midwestern sections of the United States are starting to finally see cold weather, but the weather will have far too late for the bulls in this market.
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Natural Gas-Short YMFYP Best Case Worst CaseBought $2,47 $2,47 $2,47 Sold $2,432 $2,06 $2,68 Margin $3 713,00 $3 713,00 $3 713,00 Investment $96 538,00 $96 538,00 $96 538,00 Number of Contracts 26 26 26Unit per contract 10 000 10 000 10 000Leverage 6,6 6,6 6,6Short Amount ($) $642 200,00 $642 200,00 $642 200,00 Cover Amount ($) $632 320,00 $535 600,00 $696 800,00
<Commission> $20,00 $20,00 $20,00 Total Gain / Loss $9 860,00 $106 580,00 $-54 620,00 Return 1,54% 16,60% -8,50%
Shorted 02/07/12 02/07/12 02/07/12Covered 02/09/12 03/16/2012 02/17/2012
Total Gain / Loss $9 860,00 $106 580,00 $-54 620,00 # of days 2 38 10Annualised 276,92% 157,26% -306,07%
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$2.47
$2.43
$2.68
$2.06
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Short Position on Future – Ultra T-Bond
Fastest growing interest rate futures product ever introduced by the CME Group
Initially set up to manage long-term interest rate risk
Recommendation: Hold, Sell, Strong Sell
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Short Position on Future –Ultra T-Bond
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Short Position on Future –Ultra T-Bond (UDH12)
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Long Position DOW JONES
Strong Buy Signals
US economy is recoveringStock market more attractive
Greek government closed to agree on budget measures
Big components reported their earnings Disney and Coke
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Long Position: Dow Jones
DOW JONES
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Long Position DOW JONES
$12,846
$12,900
$12,701
$13,331
Best Case: March 16th,2012
Positive economic membersIncrease in Oil pricesIncrease in Big components Prices (Alcoa, GE, Bank of America..)
Worst Case: March 6th,2012
Fear of the Greek debtChina’s cut of economic growth target
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Long Future Position on theAustralian Dollar
Events which will have an impact on the Aussie: US Crude Oil and
gasoline inventories China inflation New Zealand
unemployment rate
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February 7th 2012 The RBA released its first 2012 Interest Rate decision. Cash rate unchanged at 4.25%: big surprise as investors
expected the Central Bank to lower again the rate. The Australian Dollar climbed to the highest in six months
versus the US. News stating that the Aussie “is set for more gains this
week.”
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Rally after the RBA announced that it will leave its cash interest
unchanged.
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$-16,835
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FUTURES SUMMARY
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INTERNATIONAL STOCKS & ADR
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Materials Technology
Production and Supply of flat carbon steel
products
Assembling cars, construction, appliance, energy, packaging sectors…
USED IN
Passenger and Freight Elevators
Escalators
Moving walks Passenger Boarding bridges
Stair and platform lifts
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Top News
ThyssenKrupp in €480m quarterly loss
€480 m losses
Q1 2011Q1 2012
€101 m profits VS
TKA stock value expected to
decrease
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52.03%188.64
%
-57.03
%
0.87%10.48%
1.56%2.02%
-9.83% -0.79%
$862.54$9
897.26-$1
586.31
-38.77%
-1.29%-2.49%
-$1 585.01
-$3 166.29
149.02%
-504.39
%
-4.20%5.00%7.45
%
-6.77
%
$4 248.93
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$21.202
$20.51
$21.37
$20.77
$18.80
Acquisition of TKA stainless steel unit by Outokompu
group
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HEDGE
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+0.09%
+0.15%
+0.27%
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Higher
LowerLowerLower
+2.3
Higher
Lower
+0.6
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Lower LowerLower
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Stocks, Commodities Rise After Greece Approves Austerity Plan for Bailout
Greek approval of the austerity
plan
Bailout of Greece / No default
payment
Euro Appreciation vs USD
Hot News
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Man Group• Funded in 1783 and changed
its name in 2000 • Industry of asset management,
Man Group is ranked at the 8th position
• Market Cap: $243.08B • Quote: EMG.L
Major Competitors
- Schroders Plc- Resolution Ltd
BETA
1.04
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Man Group-Long YMFYP Best Case Worst CaseShares 46 641 46 641 46 641Price Bought £1,344 £1,344 £1,344Investment (£) £62 685,50 £62 500,00 £62 500,00 Exchange Rate $1,5753 $1,5753 $1,5753Investment ($) $98 748,47 $98 456,25 $98 456,25 Price Sold £1,441 £1,5291 £1,2750Exchange Rate $1,5929 $1,5933 $1,5733Price Change 7,22% 13,77% -5,13%Dollar change 1,12% 1,14% -0,13% Gain / Loss $8 309,83 $15 175,92 -$4 896,39<Commission> $20,00 $20,00 $20,00Total Gain / Loss $8 289,83 $15 155,92 -$4 916,39 Gain / Loss Unhedged 8,42% 15,41% -4,97%Gain / Loss Hedged 7,22% 14,11% -4,85% Bought 02/14/2012 02/14/2012 02/14/2012Sold 03/01/12 03/02/12 02/23/2012 # of days 16 17 9Annualised 162,39% 298,80% -194,09%
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Man Group
£134.4
£127.50
£144.1
£152.91
£134.4
- Europe’s largest alternative fund manager
- short term indicators: 60% buy
- 4.97 %15.41 %8.42 %
$ 8289.83
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Hedging: Great British Pound March 2012 Future
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Hot NewsFebruary 9th 2012
Bank of England took the decision to keep its interest rate at 0.5% and to purchase a further £50 billion of UK Government debt.
Added to the £200 billion purchase authorized between 2009 and 2010, and to the £75 billion purchase in October 2011, the quantitative easing plan amounts to a total of £325 billion.
The Bank of England adopted an expansive monetary policy and this last purchase in February lead the British Pound to depreciate.
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February 14th
Moody's decision to downgrade Italy, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia, and negative outlook on the UK, France and Austria.
The Pound depreciated as the Dollar became more attractive and safer to investors.
Last £50 billion quantitative easing a week before: investors’ sentiment toward future inflation announcement is likely to be on the upside rather than to the downside.
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ADR: Canadian Pacific Railway
Good Canadian Economy
Railroad Industry
A possible changement of CEO
Investment Plan
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ADR: Long Position on CP
2.25%
2.25%
7.24%
7.24%
-3.41
%
-3.41
%
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Canadian Pacific Railway
$79.57
$71.67$74.20
$75.87
Oil decreased and US dollar strenghtened Canadian Stock decreased
Consol Energy decided to cut output at its Buchana mine (Virginia) because of the lower demand from foreign steelmakers CP decreased
CP announced that its annual meeting of shareholders will take place in May 17th,2012
Changement of CEO
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DAY TO DAY TRADES
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Day Trade: Short on
Adobe
• $Created in 1982• Traded on Nasdaq
100• Quote: ADBE
Industry
• Application Software
• Offers a line of software and services
Major Competitors
• Apple
• Microsoft Corporation
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March 20, 2012
Adobe’s fiscal first-quarter earnings fell 21% on weaker-than-
expected revenue from its legacy
desktop software franchise as
customers awaited introduction of its new creative tools and subscription
services.
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Adobe Systems-Short YMFYP Best Case Worst Case
Shorted $33,38 $33,38 $33,38
Covered $33,14 $32,88 $33,38
Number of Contracts 279 279 279
Short Amount ($) $9 313,02 $9 313,02 $9 313,02
Cover Amount ($) $9 246,06 $9 173,52 $9 313,02
<Commission> $20,00 $20,00 $20,00
Dividend - - -
Gain / Loss $46,96 $119,50 $-20,00
Return 0,72% 1,50% 0,00%
Shorted on 03/20/2012 03/20/2012 03/20/2012
Covered on 03/20/2012 03/20/2012 03/20/2012
Total Gain / Loss $46,96 $119,50 $-20,00
# of days 1 1 1
Annualised 258,84% 539,25% 0,00%
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Day Trade: Long Position
Gordman’s Store
• $Created in 1915• Traded on Nasdaq • Quote: GMAN
Industry
• Home furnishing store
• Offers a line of footwear, home fashions products and accessories including fragrances
Major Competitors
• kohl’s Corp• Macy’s Inc• Wal-Mart
Stores
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March 20, 2012
Gordmans’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings rose a
better than expected 21% as the regional
retailer’s sales benefited from same store sales growth of six stores last year.
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Colonne1 Colonne2 Colonne3 Colonne4Gordman's Store-
Long YMFYP Best Case Worst Case
Bought $17,10 $17,10 $17,10
Sold $19,16 $19,69 $17,10
Number of shares 6 476 6 476 6 476
Long Amount ($) $110 739,60 $110 739,60 $110 739,60
Sell Amount ($) $124 080,16 $127 512,44 $110 739,60
<Commission> $20,00 $20,00 $20,00
Gain / Loss $13 320,56 $16 752,84 $-20,00
Return 12,05% 15,15% 0,00%
Bought 03/20/2012 03/20/2012 03/20/2012
Sold 03/20/2012 03/20/2012 03/20/2012
Total Gain / Loss $13 320,56 $16 752,84 $-20,00
# of days 1 1 1
Annualised 4336,84% 5452,63% 0,00%
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NuSkin
- Anti-aging products and nutritional
supplements
- $3.52B Market capitalization
- Created in 1984
- Provo, Utah
Industry
- Personal product
- $305B Market capitalization
Competitors
- Avon Products Inc
- L'Oreal SA
- Revlon, Inc
Day Trade: NuSkin
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Long on NuSkinNews :
New program for the personnal product industry
NuSkin positive earnings forecats Construction of a new facility in Shanghai
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Day Trade: Short on
Chevron
• $204.6 billion company
• Created in 1879• Traded on Dow
Jones Composite andDow Industrials
• Quote: CVX
Industry
• Major Integrated Oil & Gas
• Engaged in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide.
Major Competitors
• Exxon Mobil Corporation
• BP
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March 22nd 2012 A Brazilian federal
prosecutor filed criminal charges against Chevron for a November oil spill.
Brazilian authorities estimate that 2,400 barrels of crude were spilled, which led authorities to suspend all of Chevron's drilling operations and to deny the company access to huge new offshore fields.
“The spilling of oil affected the entire maritime ecosystem, possibly pushing some species to extinction, and caused impacts on economic activity in the region.“
Rethink its Latin American strategies.
Shortage of trained workers, engineers and equipment have driven up costs in Brazil.
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Day Trade: Mc Donald’s
McDonal's
- Fast food industry
- $100.39B Market capitalization
- Created in 1940
- Oak Brook, Illinois
Industry
- Restaurants
- $1,174B Market capitalization
- Stable industry, due to the necessity of the
product
Competitors
- YUM! Brands, Inc
- Burger King Holdings, Inc
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Short on McDonald'sNews :
Retirement of the CEOKnown for being the leader who « turned the
company around »Worked 41 years in the company, became CEO
in 2004Don Thompson will replace him
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Long Position APPLE
Ipad 3 Went in Sales
Apple
• $589.44 billion company
• Created in 1976• Traded on the
Nasdaq• Quote: AAPL
Industry
• Personal computer industry
• Segments of operation: Mobile phones, personal computers, digital music players
Major Competitors
• HPQ
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Long Position APPLE
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Long Position APPLE
$598$578
$584
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DAY TRADES SUMMARY
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FREE TRADES
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Wheat
$6.3575
$6.4125
$88,000
March 22nd, 2012Buy
Risk of Drought in EuropeFreezing weather in February
Less SupplyPrice will increase
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WHEAT
March 22nd, 2012
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Our Secret investment: CORN
China (2nd largest produce) May need to increase import:
Import by China may reach 20million tons by 2020
The US is the largest exporter of crop
$6.4775
$6.5075
$120,750
March 22nd, 2012Buy
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US CORN
March 22nd, 2012
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Our Last Feeling: Live Cattle
Our Last chance
No News
Observations
Started to decrease
Strong SELL signal
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Our winning Investment:Live Cattle
March 23rd, 2012
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Live Cattle
$1.2462 $1.2412 <$200,000>
March 23rd, 2012Buy
$1.2424
$1.237$632,0
00
March 23rd, 2012Short
$1,000,000
$3,000,000
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RESULTS…
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Summary
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Thank You For Your Attention
YMFYP