xxvi fefac congress outlook on the eu and global oilseeds ... - coceral... · usa: precipitation:...

XXVI FEFAC Congress

Outlook on the EU and global oilseeds and cereals markets / campaign 2013-1014.

COCERAL view on the impacts of the EU financial markets reform

Stefan VogelVice President COCERAL

Price trend basis Jan. 2012

Source: Oil World, Reuters

June, 06 2013 Chart 2

USA: Precipitation: Departure from normal rains for the period 01.04.2013 - 13.05.2013


Source: Earthsat

Nationally: 28% (Last Year 85%, 5 year- Average:65%

USA: Planting Progress Corn

Source: USDA


Nationally: 6% (Last Year 43%, 5 year- Average:24%

USA: Planting Progress Soybeans

June, 06 2013

Source: USDA

Chart 5

Precipitation: Departure from normal rains for the period 01.02.2013 - 31.03.2013

Black Sea Region:


Source: Earthsat

Black Sea Region:



Source: Earthsat


EU-28:


Source: Earthsat

World: Grain Production 2013 - mln t -

697 656 701

882857

966

134130

138

465470

479

137141

149

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Other

Rice

Barley

Maize

Wheat

+8

+7

+8

+109

+45


Source: USDA

World: Grain Production & Consumption- mln t -


Sources: USDA, IGC, Informa Economics

World: Grain Stocks & Stocks/Use ratio


Source: USDA

World: Wheat Production and Use- mln t -


Sources: USDA, IGC

USA: Maize Production & Consumption- mln bu –


USDA Informa Prudential USDA Informa Prudential USDA Informa Prudential

2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013

2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014

PLANTED ACRES 88.2 91.9 91.9 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.3 97.3 96.9

HARVESTED ACRES 81.4 84.0 84.0 87.4 87.4 87.4 89.5 89.9 89.1

YIELD 152.8 147.2 147.2 123.4 123.4 123.4 158.0 160.7 152.0

SEP.1 STOCKS 1,708 1,128 1,128 989 989 990 759 844 834

PRODUCTION 12,447 12,358 12,358 10,780 10,780 10,780 14,140 14,455 13,548

IMPORTS 28 25 25 125 150 125 25 10 25

TOTAL SUPPLY 14,182 13,511 13,511 11,894 11,919 11,895 14,924 15,309 14,407

FEED 4,795 4,568 4,325 4,400 4,300 4,350 5,325 5,300 4,900

F/S/I 6,426 6,415 6,380 5,985 6,025 5,960 6,295 6,350 6,310

ETHANOL FOR FUEL 5,019 4,995 4,980 4,600 4,600 4,575 4,850 4,925 4,900

DOMESTIC USE 11,220 10,983 10,705 10,385 10,325 10,310 11,620 11,650 11,210

EXPORTS 1,834 1,540 1,545 750 750 750 1,300 1,550 1,600

TOTAL USAGE 13,054 12,523 12,250 11,135 11,075 11,060 12,920 13,200 12,810

CARRYOUT 1,128 988 1,261 759 844 835 2,004 2,109 1,597

STOCKS TO USAGE 8.6% 7.9% 10.3% 6.8% 7.6% 7.5% 15.5% 16.0% 12.5%

Source: USDA, Infroma Economics, ADM

Sources: USDA, Informa Economics, PBC

World: Maize Production & Consumption- mln t –


Sources: USDA, Informa Economics

World: Distribution of Grain Stocks

Share of China declines for the first time in 4 years

28% 27%32% 31% 30% 30% 33% 34%

39% 35%

3% 3%5% 5% 7% 8%

9% 10%11%

10%18% 18%14% 15% 14% 15%

12% 10%10% 15%9% 9%

7% 9% 8%8% 9% 7%

7% 7%13% 12% 9% 7% 9%9% 6% 7%

5% 6%5% 4%

4% 4%5% 6% 5% 6% 3%

4%

24% 26% 29% 29% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

other

RUK

EU-27

Bra, Can, Aus; Arg

USA

India

China


Source: USDA

World: Grain Stocks per Commodity- mln t -


Source: USDA

World: Distribution of maize stocks

Share of the USA rises from 15% to 33%Chinas share declines from 50% to 38%

56%51%

43%

28% 28%33%

29%35% 35%

39%45%

50%

38%

1%5%

8%

3% 2%

3% 10%

8% 7%8%

7%

9%

8%

27%22%

23%

41% 40% 30%31%

29% 30% 22%19%

15%

33%

2%3%

4%4% 4%

4% 5%4% 6% 7%

4%4%

4%

12% 15%19% 17% 18%

23% 22% 20%19% 21% 20% 17%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

others

other Exporters

EU-27

USA

Brasilien

China


Source: USDA

World Grain Exports- mln t -


Source: USDA

EU Grain Production- mln t -

Some thoughts and figuresUK badRecovery in S.E. Europe expectedSpain good crop


Source: Coceral

EU Grain S&D - mln t -


Source: Coceral

13/14 12/13 11/12 13/14 12/13 11/12 13/14 12/13 11/12 13/14 12/13 11/12

Beginning stocks 10,4 13,8 11,8 4,2 5,3 6,9 7,6 9,7 8,5 22,3 28,8 27,3

Production 127,0 123,8 129,4 54,6 54,3 51,5 62,2 54,7 64,8 243,8 232,7 245,7

Imports 4,0 3,2 5,4 0,3 0,1 0,4 8,5 11,6 6,2 12,8 14,9 12,0

Total supply 141,4 140,8 146,6 59,1 59,6 58,9 78,3 75,9 79,5 278,9 276,4 285,0

Domestic Use 113,8 111,8 118,4 47,8 48,5 48,1 68,4 67,5 66,6 230,0 227,8 233,1

of which Feed Use 49,6 48,2 54,4 35,3 36,0 35,4 51,0 50,5 49,7 135,9 134,7 139,5

of which Bioethanol Production 5,0 4,6 4,6 0,2 0,3 0,3 3,7 3,3 3,2 8,9 8,2 8,1

Exports 3rd 16,5 18,6 14,4 6,2 6,9 5,5 1,5 0,8 3,2 24,2 26,3 23,1

Carry-out 11,1 10,4 13,8 5,1 4,2 5,3 8,4 7,6 9,7 24,7 22,3 28,8

Stock to use ratio 10% 9% 12% 11% 9% 11% 12% 11% 15% 11% 10% 12%

WHEAT BARLEY Corn TOTAL CEREALS

65,6 63,3 70,578,5 71,8

82,5

48,232,7

58,253,8

43,5

53,2

44,1

41,5

39,0 36,2

40,3

29,4

157,9

137,5

167,7 168,5

155,6165,1

0

40

80

120

160

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USA

Brasilien

Argentinien

Available quantity of Soybeans in March* - mln t -

* Brazil from January onwards

Sources: USDA, Oil World


USA: Soybean Production & Consumption- mln bu –


Sources: USDA, Informa Economics, PBC

US Soybeans

September-August USDA Informa Prudential USDA Informa Prudential USDA Informa Prudential

2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013

2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014

PLANTED ACRES 75.0 75.0 75.0 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.1 77.1 79.0

HARVESTED ACRES 73.6 73.8 73.8 76.1 76.1 76.1 76.2 76.1 77.8

YIELD 41.9 41.9 41.9 39.6 39.6 39.6 44.5 43.9 44.5

SOYBEANS (MIL BU)

SEP. 1 STOCKS 215 215 215 169 169 169 125 140 115

PRODUCTION 3,094 3,094 3,094 3,015 3,015 3,015 3,390 3,344 3,463

IMPORTS 16 16 15 20 25 20 15 15 15

TOTAL SUPPLY 3,325 3,325 3,324 3,204 3,209 3,204 3,530 3,499 3,593

CRUSH 1,703 1,697 1,705 1,635 1,635 1,653 1,695 1,650 1,695

EXPORTS 1,360 1,362 1,360 1,350 1,340 1,343 1,450 1,425 1,550

SEED 90 89 89 90 90 90 87 100 90

OTHER 3 6 1 5 5 3 33 30 20

TOTAL USAGE 3,156 3,154 3,155 3,080 3,070 3,089 3,265 3,205 3,355

YEAR END STOCKS 169 171 169 124 139 115 265 294 238

STOCKS/USAGE 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 4.0% 4.5% 3.7% 8.1% 9.2% 7.1%

EU: rapeseed balance-mln t -


Sources: Oil World, GTIS, Toepfer

Production 15,6 16,1 18,5 19,1 21,5 20,3 19,1 19,7 20,7

Imports 0,4 0,5 0,7 3,3 2,2 2,7 3,5 3,1 2,9

Ukraine 0,1 0,4 0,4 2,3 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,3

Australia 0,3 0,2 0,8 0,4 1,1 1,9 1,8 1,2

Canada 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1

? ?General:• Tight grain balance in 2012/13

• Low ending stock levels, especially in exporting countries

• Prices should remain volatile

Bullish:• South American Logistics - this will mainly affect soy

• Warm and dry weather in Russia - not a big issue yet, as long as March-

May rainfall is adequate

• Wetness in US/Canada during planting - Concern of lower yields and reduced

corn area

• China imports - ??

Bearish:• Well developed crops in Europe

• Big area in US - USDA corn area to high

• Return to average yields?


COCERAL views on the impacts of EU financial markets reform


Quality of Data: USDA-Estimate of World Grain S+D for 2007/08

Source: USDA

Consumption estimate

Difference = Prod. – Consumption in Mil. t

Production estimateMil. t


1. E

tim

ate

May

07In US$/t

Quality of Data: Development of Wheat Prices CBoT & USDA Estimate

Feb

. 08

Est

im.

Fin

anci

al C

risi

s

Exp

ort

sto

pR

U

Fuko

shim

a

Dro

ugh

tU

SA/R

UK

Wheat Price CBoT in US$/t


Sources: USDA, Reuters

EU Financial Markets Regulations - Overview

MiFID (Markets in Financial

Instruments Directive)

MAD (Market Abuse

Directive)

MiFID II MAD II MAR (Markets

AbuseRegulation)

EMIR (European Markets

Infrastructure Regulation)

REMIT(Regulation on Energy Market

Integrity & Transparency )

Revision New Revision New New New

MiFIR(Markets in Financial

Instruments Regulation)

2012-13 the year of rulemaking 2014-15 the year of implementation

Regulation of Exchanges

Regulation ofInsider Information

In Force:

OTC Regulation EnergyMarkets, EUAs

(Emissions)


Under EU legislative process:

MiFID II/MiFIR

• MiFID is in force since 2007 and now under revision MiFID II plus MiFIR (Directive and Regulation)

• MiFID governs investment services in financial instruments by banks and investment firms and the operation of traditional stock exchanges and Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTF)

• MiFID II will introduce a new type of trading venue: the Organised Trading Facility (OTF)– Stricter framework for commodity derivatives markets

– Improve transparency

• MiFID II/MiFIR still under negotiations in Council

MiFID II for agricultural commodities

• Exemption – art.2: Commercial (agricultural) firms which hedge their risks are exempted from MiFID II for their main and ancillary business.

• Position checks – art.59: ag. commodity contracts will be subject to “position checks” instead of limits. Flexible vs. rigid approach.

• Position reporting – art.60: position reporting done by financial counterparties, i.e. CCP (Central Clearing Party) or broker. – Creation of weekly publication with aggregated positions

by category of trader -> similar to CFTC report

MAD II/MAR

• MAD is in force since 2003 and now is under revision to be replaced by a regulation: MAR

• MAD introduced a framework to tackle insider dealing and market manipulation

• MAR will be extended beyond MTF, to OTF and to related financial instruments traded OTC– Rules are extended to include agricultural derivatives

• MAR legislative process is integrated with MiFIDII/MIFIR – Council agreed already on a general approach on

MAR, but no finalisation until MiFID II progresses

MAR for agricultural commodities

• Prohibition of insider dealing – art.9: as designed today, art. 9 could prevent hedging of risks for ag. commodities contracts

• Exemption to insider dealing – art. 7

– Need for a workable exemption of hedging strategies for ag. commodities operators

EMIR

• EMIR entered into force on 16 August 2012. It introduces:– Reporting and clearing obligation for OTC derivatives, – common rules for central counterparties (CCPs) and for trade

repositories,– rules on the establishment of interoperability between CCPs.

• An OTC regulated by EMIR is an option, future, swap, forward or other derivatives contract that is settled in cash. Are excluded: – Physically delivered options, futures and swaps relating to

commodities not traded through a regulated market or MTF– Physically delivered commodity forwards which are not cleared

through a clearing house

• Technical regulatory & implementing standards defines practical applications– 9 are already adopted and more to come

EMIR and agricultural commodities

• Clearing threshold for non-financial entities

• If > 3 bln EUR OTC volumes for 30 consecutive days, non-financial entities are subject to central clearing requirements– Clearing obligation abolished if threshold is not

exceeded anymore for 30 days.

• For uncleared trades: Post-trade reporting, record-keeping, collateralization and margin

• Clearing obligation for non-financial entities will enter into force not before 2017

xxvi fefac congress outlook on the eu and global oilseeds ... - coceral... · usa: precipitation:...

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