xpo logistics, inc. (nyse:xpo) recommendation: buy...xpo’s strong fundamental business model and...

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XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO)Recommendation: BUY

Colin Gutzmer

Investment Thesis

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Recommendation: XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is undervalued in the market with substantial long-term upside; therefore, I recommend a buy considering recent rarities present a great entry opportunity.

Rationale: XPO’s strong fundamental business model and room for growth put the Company in a good position to capitalize on eCommerce’s rapid growth and the increasing importance of logistics

1

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3 Experienced management with a plan

Developing role of logistics as inventory and consumer demands change

Rising capacity due to substantial growth of eCommerce

Price Target: $66.00

35.0% upside to current price $48.88

Company Overview

3Source: Company filings, Bloomberg

Company Profile Historical Stock Chart

2018 Revenue by Segment Revenue Breakdown ($ in millions)

Volume (000’s)§ XPO is a leader in both the transportation and logistics segment§ Within the transportation segment, the company specializes in

freight brokerage, truckload, and less-than-truckload (LTL)§ XPO Logistics is a leader of transportation in both the

U.S. and Europe§ Within the logistics segment, XPO specializes in value-added

warehousing, eCommerce fulfillment, and supply chain management

§ Large companies and small companies alike outsource inventory management to XPO Logistics, whether in totality or partially

§ XPO offers omni-channel solutions with hopes to cross-sell its services after forming relationships with their 55,000+ customers

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5,000

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4

Aug-14

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Feb-1

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Aug-17

Feb-1

8

Aug-18

Volume XPO

Transportation65%

Logistics35%

U.S.59%

Europe14%

France12%

UK12%Other NA

2%

Other1%

$2,140$4,924

$9,976 $10,276 $11,343$216

$2,768

$4,761 $5,229$6,065

0%

2%

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6%

8%

10%

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Transportation Logistics EBITDA Margin

Company Overview (cont.)

4Source: Company Filings

Logistics Transport

§ Drayage§ Moving shipping containers short

distances§ Intermodal

§ Cost-effective, specialized transport rooted in extensive coverage and technology

§ Reverse§ XPO logistics handles 2 million returns

annually, often concerning heavy household goods

§ Can clean, inspect, etc.§ Supply Chain

§ Second largest contract logistics provider worldwide

§ ~185 million square feet of facilities§ XPO Direct

§ Positions inventory within two-day ground transportation of vast majority of U.S population

§ Expedite§ Ground, air, and cross-border solutions

§ Full Truckload§ XPO is the world’s second largest freight

broker§ XPO Connect serves as a digital

marketplace to engage customers and drive the sales experience

§ Global Forwarding§ Ocean, air, and insurance services

provided§ Last Mile

§ 85 hubs provide a last mile experience for consumers

§ 99% of U.S population covered§ Flexible, customer-tailored delivery

options§ Less-than-truckload

§ Emphasizes speed and reliability with one of the largest fleets in industry

§ Over 75,000 next-day and two-day lanes

Volatility

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Spruce Point Short

1 Year Historic Stock Chart

§ Jacobs’ past company, United Rentals, used M&A activity in order to exploit fair value estimates and inflate company value

§ Reports insist that income manipulation overstates EPS by over 50% and that free cash flows cannot support debt level

§ Announced $8B acquisition that never happened in 2018, raising questions about debt-levels

§ The publication of said short-seller report sent shares plummeting down 26% in December

§ Deutsche Bank found many simplistic errors in the short-seller’s report

§ XPO responded that the report was intentionally misleading and authorized a $1B share buyback

Earnings Call Updates§ Board approved an additional $1.5B buyback following Q4 release§ Company lost ~600MM of projected revenue in short notice§ XPO Connect (digital freight marketplace) has doubled number of

bids seeking loads§ Logistics segment revenue grew 10% along due in large part to

consumer packaged goods, food and beverage, and eCommerce§ Organic growth this year will largely stem from supply chain due to

its contractual nature. Transportation will struggle given that biggest customer is gone

§ Will get full year contribution from 2018’s record number of logistics start-ups

§ Goal is to have total package of supply chain solutions for big customers especially

Source: Spruce Point Capital Report, Company Filings

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Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19

Volume XPO

Industry Overview

6Source: IBISWorld, Company Filings

Transportation Overview

Logistics Overview

§ Long-term, the transportation industry will continue to grow as consumers demand their goods faster and faster.

§ Amazon and Walmart set the gold standard, offering free two-day shipping. By end of FY2020, Walmart wants to offer one-day delivery to 50% of the U.S population.

§ As smaller businesses try to compete with the giants, it is necessary for them to match the industry’s transportations standards.

§ Activity within the transportation industry is extremely responsive to tariffs and oil prices.

§ The logistics industry is characterized by long-term contractual relationships with low cyclicality

§ Retail and eCommerce currently act as the main drivers of the logistics industry, grocery could soon prompt additional growth

§ Logistics companies typically specialize in one or two verticals and lack the ability to provide holistic solutions

§ The U.S contract logistics is expected to grow at 2-3 times GDPdriven mainly by 3PL

§ Major players include XPO Logistics, FedEx, UPS, and Amazon§ Differentiators include technology and scope

1 Based on 2018 revenues

U.S Market Size1

$0

$200,000

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Transportation Logistics

MM

Other97%

XPO3%

Market Segmentation

Other99%

XPO1%

Transportation Logistics

2%CAGR

eCommerce will continue to grow rapidly

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Overview

Overview Favorable Positioning

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Logistics drives solutions2

§ eCommerce is on pace for double-digit growth immediately, high single-digit in the future

§ With giants like Amazon setting the pace of 2-day and faster delivery, smaller companies (think Fortune 500 all the way to small cap) need to keep pace

§ Walmart aiming to reach 50% of population in one day by end FY2020

§ Smaller companies than these giants demand solutions§ XPO ready for capacity opening record number of logistics

hubs last year

§ XPO’s large footprint allows for products to be in close reach of nearly any consumer

§ XPO’s omni-channel offerings satisfy emerging trends such as temperature-controlled inventory, sustainable packing, and reverse logistics

§ XPO keeps its competitive edge within the logistics industry with its heavy technology expenditures

§ Acquisitions or not, XPO is primed to grow

eCommerce Market ($B)

$-

$100

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$500

$600

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$800

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

10%CAGR

§ Customers continue to buy large, heavy items online

§ Last mile logistics on heavy goods alone projected to grow at 3x to 5x GDP in the U.S

§ Tenure of logistics contract is ~5 years with a 95% retention rate

§ No other companies resemble Amazon- need to outsource logistics

§ Record number of logistics hubs opened in 2018

Source: IBISWorld, Company Filings

Strong Model and Strong Management

8Source: Company Filings

Bradley Jacobs, CEO Proven Model

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• Named one of the World’s Most Admired Companies by Fortune, 2018 and 2019

• Named to the Fortune Future 50 list of US companies best positioned for breakout growth by Fortune, 2018

• Ranked #7 of the Glassdoor Top 20 UK companies with the best leadership and culture at work, 2018

• Ranked #67 of Largest US Employers by Fortune, 2018

• CEO Jacobs ranked #10 on Barron's list of World's Best CEOs, 2018

• Awarded Company of the Year for innovation by Assologistica(Italy), 2017 and 2018

• Recognized by Nissan (Europe) for logistics excellence, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

• Named a top-performing US company on the Global 2000 by Forbes, 2017

• Named one of America’s Best Employers by Forbes, 2017

• Named a Worldwide Leader in the Magic Quadrant for Third-Party Logistics Providers by Gartner, 2018

• Named a Top 75 Green Supply Chain Partner by Inbound Logistics for 2016, 2017, 2018

§ Jacobs founded XPO in 2011 with an acquisition of a $150MM third-party shipping solutions company

§ Planning to use M&A to grow, he promised $5B revenue in 5 years; he delivered. $15B company 4 years later

§ As CEO and chairman of United Rentals, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a factor of 2.2

Kenny Wagers, COO§ Previously oversaw Amazon’s

worldwide transport and logistics

§ Spent 17 years with UPS and was instrumental in the expansion of 3PL services

§ Worked with Dr. Pepper Snapple Group in supply chain management

Primary Research

9Source: Thomas Reid

Thomas ReidMendoza ‘03Director of Financial Planning and AnalysisXPO Global, NA Transport, Freight Brokerage

Management

• Mr. Reid’s experience with new management has been “nothing but positive”

• Brad Jacobs keeping a startup mentality, seeking warm leads and growth opportunities

• Changes in management to invest in growth

Technology

• XPO a tech company just as much as logistics

• “Out in front” regarding technology

• Real-time load-to-truck ratios

Q4

• Hurricanes and snow storms on top of #1 customer loss

• Improbable that extreme market conditions will replicate

• Amazon 2.0 cannot happen

Key Risks

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ü Amazon is unlikely to make such a large acquisition, but given segmentation, XPO has plenty of room to grow

ü XPO is a frontrunner in technology and has a massive geographic span

ü While some areas of EU are on the decline, XPO has some tailwinds like being the number one provider of fashion logistics in Italy

ü Logistics industry is rapidly expanding and has room for multiple major players. XPO’s omni-channel offerings solidify it is a front-runner short-term.

û Amazon acquires FedEx

û Developing logistics industry players could usurp XPO’s market share

û Full-blown French recession

û Amazon becomes direct competitor

Key Risks Mitigants

SWOT

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• Management predicts contract logistics, 35% of XPO’s revenue source, will grow at 3x GDP

• XPO Connect solidifies XPO’s position as the second largest freight brokerage firm globally, project at 3x-4x GDP growth

• Brexit uncertainties and a slowing French economy loom over EU revenues

• Accounting scandal

• New management brings an exciting uncertainty: where will XPO pivot next?

• Underexposed to Asian-Pacific and Indian market

• XPO’s largest customer recently pulled out two-thirds of its business with XPO, will cause scaling issues early 2019

• European transport industry, asset heavy, profit light

ThreatsOpportunities

WeaknessesStrengths

Final Recommendation

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Recommendation: XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is undervalued in the market with substantial long-term upside; therefore, I recommend a buy

Base Case

Price Target: $66.00Upside: 35.0%

Upside Case

Price Target: $89.66Upside: 83.4%

Downside Case

Price Target: $41.21Downside: -14.9%

Appendix

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Management Concerns

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Senior Management Year Hired Primary Occupation

Troy Cooper(President) 2011 Previously worked for United Rentals

and United Waste Systems

Sarah Glickman(Acting CFO) 2018 13+ year senior manager at PWC, 8

years CFO experience

Kenny Wagers(COO) 2018 Previously oversaw Amazon’s

worldwide transport and logistics.

Michele Chapman(SVP) 2018 Former global head of sales operations

for Amazon Business

Richard Cawston(MD of EU Supply

Chain)2015 Formerly managed UK and Ireland after

his company was acquired

Matthew Fasler(CSO) 2018

Formerly worked with Goldman Sachs,16x Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team

Luis-AngelIzaguirre

(Transport- EU)2018 Bradley Jacobs mentioned him as a

pivotal hire in the earnings call

Mario Harik(CIO) 2018

Mario previously consulted to many Fortune 100 firms, role will develop as technology investment continues

Valuation – Comparable Companies Analysis

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Valuation StatisticsMarket Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / Earnings

Company Ticker Capitalization Value 2017A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTMDeutsche Post AG XTRA:DPW $33,349 $47,085 0.9x 0.8x 11.5x 10.3x 18.2x 16.3xLandstar System, Inc. LSTR 4,392 4,336 1.2x 0.9x 15.1x 11.6x 28.8x 17.7xJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT 11,744 12,890 1.9x 1.5x 13.6x 11.5x 30.6x 24.4xKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.KNX 5,839 6,686 2.7x 1.3x 14.9x 6.7x 64.2x 14.3xC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 12,469 13,436 0.9x 0.8x 14.9x 13.5x 26.6x 19.3x

XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO $5,477 $9,325 1.0x 0.5x 11.8x 6.2x 76.1x 17.4x

25th Percentile $5,116 $5,511 0.9x 0.8x 12.6x 8.5x 22.4x 15.3xMean 13,559 16,887 1.5x 1.1x 14.0x 10.7x 33.7x 18.4xMedian 11,744 12,890 1.2x 0.9x 14.9x 11.5x 28.8x 17.7x75th Percentile 22,909 30,261 2.3x 1.4x 15.0x 12.6x 47.4x 21.8x

Operating StatisticsRevenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin

Company Ticker 2017A LTM '16-'17A LTM 2017A LTM 2017A LTMDeutsche Post AG XTRA:DPW $61,019 $61,421 5.6% 1.9% $4,703 $4,560 7.7% 7.4%Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 3,649 4,619 15.1% 26.6% 284 374 7.8% 8.1%J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT 7,190 8,615 9.7% 19.8% 1,010 1,117 14.1% 13.0%Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.KNX 2,425 5,344 116.9% 120.3% 439 1,002 18.1% 18.7%C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 14,869 16,631 13.1% 11.8% 854 994 5.7% 6.0%

XPO Logistics, Inc. XPO $15,381 $17,279 5.2% 12.3% $1,282 $1,513 8.3% 8.8%

25th Percentile $3,037 $4,982 7.6% 6.9% $361 $684 6.7% 6.7%Mean 17,830 19,326 32.1% 36.1% 1,458 1,609 10.7% 10.6%Median 7,190 8,615 13.1% 19.8% 854 1,002 7.8% 8.1%75th Percentile 37,944 39,026 66.0% 73.5% $2,857 $2,838 16.1% 15.9%

Valuation – WACC

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WACC CalculationCapital Structure

Debt-to-Total Capitalization 38.36%Equity-to-Total Capitalization 61.64%

Cost of DebtCost of Debt 6.27%Tax Rate 26.00%After-tax Cost of Debt 4.64%

Cost of EquityRisk-free Rate(1) 2.65%Market Risk Premium(2) 6.00%Levered Beta 1.36

Cost of Equity 10.81%

WACC 8.44%

Valuation – DCF (Base)

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FYE December 31, FYE December 31,($ in millions) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025ETotal Revenue $7,623.2 $14,619.0 $15,381.0 $17,279.0 $17,604.8 $18,181.2 $18,780.8 $19,404.6 $20,052.1 $20,724.5 $21,422.7

Revenue Growth -- 91.8% 5.2% 12.3% 1.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4%

ExpensesCOGS 6,538.4 12,503.0 13,138.0 14,737.0 15,026.2 15,512.3 16,026.9 16,557.7 17,111.0 17,684.3 18,280.4

Gross Profit $1,084.8 $2,116.0 $2,243.0 $2,542.0 $2,578.6 $2,668.9 $2,753.9 $2,846.9 $2,941.1 $3,040.1 $3,142.3Gross Margin 14.2% 14.5% 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7%

SG&A 1,113.4 1,628.0 1,619.0 1,745.0 1,760.5 1,818.1 1,840.5 1,901.6 1,925.0 1,989.6 2,056.6Operating Expenses 1,113.4 1,628.0 1,619.0 1,745.0 1,760.5 1,818.1 1,840.5 1,901.6 1,925.0 1,989.6 2,056.6

Operating Income (EBIT) ($28.6) $488.0 $624.0 $797.0 $818.1 $850.8 $913.4 $945.3 $1,016.1 $1,050.6 $1,085.8EBIT Margin (0.4%) 3.3% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%Income Tax Expense (28%) -90.9 22.0 -99.0 122.0 229.1 238.2 255.7 264.7 284.5 294.2 304.0

EBIAT $62.3 $466.0 $723.0 $675.0 $589.1 $612.5 $657.6 $680.6 $731.6 $756.4 $781.8

Cash FlowPlus: D&A 364.9 643.0 658.0 716.0 757.0 727.2 713.7 698.6 681.8 663.2 642.7

Discretionary Cash Flow 427.2 1,109.0 1,381.0 1,391.0 1,346.1 1,339.8 1,371.3 1,379.2 1,413.4 1,419.6 1,424.4Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 3.2 (192.9) 58.0 (47.5) (28.1) (0.8) (15.5) (8.5) (12.7) (11.2)Less: CapEx (858.3) (4,085.4) (142.0) (386.0) (528.1) (490.9) (544.6) (582.1) (601.6) (621.7) (642.7)

Free Cash Flow ($431.1) ($2,973.2) $1,046.1 $1,063.0 $770.4 $820.8 $825.9 $781.5 $803.3 $785.1 $770.5Free Cash Flow Growth -- 589.7% (135.2%) 1.6% (27.5%) 6.5% 0.6% (5.4%) 2.8% (2.3%) (1.9%)

Unlevered Free Cash FlowWACC 8.44%Discount Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5Discount Factor 0.96 0.89 0.82 0.75 0.69 0.64 0.59

Present Value of Free Cash Flow $739.8 $726.9 $674.4 $588.5 $557.8 $502.7 $455.0

Valuation – DCF (Base)

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Enterprise Value DCF Sensitivity AnalysisCumulative Present Value of FCF $4,245.2Terminal ValueTerminal Year EBITDA $1,728.4Exit Multiple 8.5x

Terminal Value $14,690.5Discount Factor 59.05%

Present Value of Terminal Value $8,674.5% of Enterprise Value 67.1%

Enterprise Value $12,919.6

DCF Implied Equity Value and Share PriceEnterprise Value $12,919.6

Less: Total Debt $4,415.0Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents $502.0

Implied Equity Value $9,006.6

Implied Share Price $66.23

Shares Outstanding 136

Comps Implied Equity Value and Share PriceEnterprise Value $12,859.3





DCF Sensitivity AnalysisWACC

66.23 6.4% 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4%6.5x $59.00 $54.80 $50.86 $47.17 $43.707.5x $67.47 $62.77 $58.36 $54.24 $50.37

EV/EBITDA 8.5x $75.94 $70.74 $65.87 $61.31 $57.039.5x $84.41 $78.71 $73.37 $68.38 $63.6910.5x $92.88 $86.68 $80.88 $75.45 $70.36

Method Weight PriceComparable Companies 50% $65.8DCF 50% $66.2

Fair Value Estimate $66.00

Valuation – DCF (Upside)

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Revenue Growth -- 91.8% 5.2% 12.3% 3.2% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3%

ExpensesCOGS 6,538.4 12,503.0 13,138.0 14,737.0 15,210.4 15,902.0 16,576.3 17,223.6 17,848.9 18,468.9 19,079.8



Operating Income (EBIT) ($28.6) $488.0 $624.0 $797.0 $838.1 $876.2 $952.2 $989.4 $1,067.2 $1,104.2 $1,140.8EBIT Margin (0.4%) 3.3% 4.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%Income Tax Expense (28%) -90.9 22.0 -99.0 122.0 217.9 227.8 247.6 257.2 277.5 287.1 296.6

EBIAT $62.3 $466.0 $723.0 $675.0 $620.2 $648.4 $704.6 $732.2 $789.7 $817.1 $844.2

Cash FlowPlus: D&A 364.9 643.0 658.0 716.0 766.8 745.7 738.5 726.9 711.4 692.9 671.0

Discretionary Cash Flow 427.2 1,109.0 1,381.0 1,391.0 1,386.9 1,394.1 1,443.1 1,459.1 1,501.2 1,510.0 1,515.2Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 3.2 (192.9) 58.0 (53.1) (31.3) (4.4) (17.7) (10.1) (13.7) (11.6)Less: CapEx (858.3) (4,085.4) (142.0) (386.0) (534.9) (503.3) (563.6) (605.8) (627.7) (649.6) (671.0)

Free Cash Flow ($431.1) ($2,973.2) $1,046.1 $1,063.0 $798.9 $859.5 $875.1 $835.6 $863.3 $846.8 $832.6Free Cash Flow Growth -- 589.7% (135.2%) 1.6% (24.8%) 7.6% 1.8% (4.5%) 3.3% (1.9%) (1.7%)



Valuation – DCF (Upside)

20





Implied Equity Value and Share PriceEnterprise Value $15,982.6











88.75 6.4% 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4%8.7x $83.95 $78.32 $73.06 $68.13 $63.509.7x $92.83 $86.68 $80.92 $75.54 $70.49

EV/EBITDA 10.7x $101.70 $95.03 $88.79 $82.95 $77.4811.7x $110.58 $103.39 $96.66 $90.36 $84.4612.7x $119.46 $111.74 $104.52 $97.77 $91.45



Valuation – DCF (Downside)

21


Revenue Growth -- 91.8% 5.2% 12.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%

ExpensesCOGS 6,538.4 12,503.0 13,138.0 14,737.0 14,913.4 15,110.9 15,380.5 15,630.7 15,864.8 16,082.3 16,303.0



Operating Income (EBIT) ($28.6) $488.0 $624.0 $797.0 $821.7 $832.6 $883.5 $897.9 $948.5 $961.5 $974.7EBIT Margin (0.4%) 3.3% 4.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%Income Tax Expense (28%) -90.9 22.0 -99.0 122.0 230.1 233.1 247.4 251.4 265.6 269.2 272.9

EBIAT $62.3 $466.0 $723.0 $675.0 $591.6 $599.5 $636.1 $646.5 $683.0 $692.3 $701.8

Cash FlowPlus: D&A 364.9 643.0 658.0 716.0 751.8 708.6 685.2 659.7 632.4 603.3 573.4

Discretionary Cash Flow 427.2 1,109.0 1,381.0 1,391.0 1,343.4 1,308.1 1,321.3 1,306.2 1,315.3 1,295.6 1,275.2Less: Increase in NWC 0.0 3.2 (192.9) 58.0 (47.3) (20.8) 3.2 (9.4) (2.5) (5.5) (3.9)Less: CapEx (858.3) (4,085.4) (142.0) (386.0) (524.5) (478.3) (522.9) (549.7) (558.0) (565.6) (573.4)

Free Cash Flow ($431.1) ($2,973.2) $1,046.1 $1,063.0 $771.6 $808.9 $801.6 $747.1 $754.9 $724.5 $698.0Free Cash Flow Growth -- 589.7% (135.2%) 1.6% (27.4%) 4.8% (0.9%) (6.8%) 1.0% (4.0%) (3.7%)



Valuation – DCF (Downside)

22





Implied Equity Value and Share PriceEnterprise Value $9,708.8











42.62 6.4% 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4%4.2x $34.57 $31.79 $29.17 $26.72 $24.415.2x $42.16 $38.93 $35.89 $33.05 $30.37

EV/EBITDA 6.2x $49.75 $46.07 $42.62 $39.38 $36.347.2x $57.33 $53.21 $49.34 $45.71 $42.318.2x $64.92 $60.34 $56.06 $52.05 $48.28



xpo logistics, inc. (nyse:xpo) recommendation: buy...xpo’s strong fundamental business model and...

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