www.esource.comseptember 15, 2015 turbo-charging efficiency for a clean energy economy senior...

www.esource.com September 15, 2015

Turbo-charging Efficiency For A Clean Energy Economy

Senior Fellow, E Source

September 15, 2015

Tim Stout

www.esource.com || © 2015 E Source 2

Outline President Obama’s Remarks in Alaska and EPA’s

Clean Power Plan (CPP) – Calls for Action What the CPP means for states Renewables and Energy Efficiency (EE) as Core

Tools for Achieving Compliance with the CPP The Challenge of Defining EE and Telling the EE

Story Consistently Innovation in EE Programs, Strategies and

Services Key Take-Aways

Next Steps for the EE Industry


President Obama’s Remarks on Climate Change The Arctic is the leading edge of climate change

Leading indicator of what the entire planet faces Over past 60 years, Alaska has warmed about twice as fast

as the rest of the U.S. 2014 was Alaska’s warmest on record – just as it was for

the rest of the world Since 1979, the summer sea ice in the Arctic has decreased

by more than 40% Pace of melting of Alaska glaciers is twice today what it was

ten years Since President Obama took office over six years ago, the

U.S. harnesses three times as much electricity from wind and 20 times as much from the sun.


Clean Power Plan: Background On August 3, 2015, President Obama announced

the Clean Power Plan (CPP), an extension of the Clean Air Act

Designed to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants by 32% by 2030 compared to a 2012 baseline (a reduction of 870 tons)

Establishes CO2 reduction goals for 47 states (excluding Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam and Virgin Islands)

Provides states with tremendous flexibility to meet goals through a wide variety of options


State Progress Toward CPP TargetsRATE-BASED COMPLIANCE

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists


State Progress Toward CPP TargetsMASS-BASED COMPLIANCE



State 2022 2030

California In compliance >200%

Idaho In compliance 0%

Montana 16% 10%

Oregon >200% 171%

Washington >200% 125%

Wyoming 1% 0%

% Compliance with CPP by 2022 and 2030


Three of six states are already in

compliance

State 2022 2030

California In compliance >200%

Idaho In compliance In Compliance

Montana 19% 11%

Oregon In compliance >200%

Washington >200% 158%

Wyoming 1% 1%

Rate-basedCompliance

(lbs/MWh)

Mass-basedCompliance(short tons of CO2)


Three Core Compliance Strategies

EnergyEfficiency

SolarEnergy

Wind Power


SolarEnergy


2014 PV Installed Capacity

http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-industry-data


Value of Yearly U.S. Solar Installations



U.S. Solar Workforce


# of Jobs


As Industry Scales, Prices Fall



U.S. Solar Industry Forecast



Large PV Installations Across the US

Source: http://www.seia.org/map/corporate-solar-projects.php


Solar Installations on Schools

http://www.seia.org/map/solar-schools.php


Wind Energy


Scale-up of Wind Technology Has Supported Cost Reductions

Wind Vision A New Era of Wind Power in the United States. US DOE.


Policy Uncertainty Has Resulted in Fluctuations in Historical Wind Deployment



Projected Wind Generation10% by 2020, 20% by 2030, 35% by 2050



Distribution of Wind Power in U.S.

Wind Vision A New Era of Wind Power in the United State. US DOE.


Wind Deployment Through 2050

Source: http://energy.gov/maps/map-projected-growth-wind-industry-now-until-2050


Energy Efficiency

and Demand

Response


Growth in US Utility DSM Spending

Source: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, “State Energy Efficiency Scorecard”


US and Canadian DSM Program Budgets

Source: CEE State of the Energy Efficiency Report 2014


Projected Electric and Gas Energy Efficiency Program Spending


Reported and Projected ESCO Industry Revenues by Year

Source: Nadel. Elliott. ACEEE Energy Efficiency in the U.S. 35 Years and Counting


Other Pieces of the DSM Puzzle

Building Codes Equipment Efficiency Standards

Energy StarEquipment Not CountedIn Utility/ThirdParty AdministratorDSM Programs

Efficiency and DRThat CustomersPursue Independently of Utility/Third PartyAdministrator Programs


Who Do Customers Want to Deliver Their Energy Services?

84% Their electric utility 19% Third-party energy management company 16% Wireless phone company 15% Cable company 11% Landline phone company

Source: Pike Research. Smart Grid Customer Survey and included in Effective Customer Engagement: Utilities Must Speak Customers’ Language. Published 1Q 2013. Commissioned by Opower

(n=489)


Who Do You Trust Most for Energy Advice?

62% of large business

customers selected their utility when

asked who they trust most for energy

advice

Source: E Source 2014 and 2015 Large Business Customer Satisfaction Surveys (n = 2,488 large business key account customers)Question S4_13: Please select the resources you trust most for energy-efficiency advice (select up to three).

Utility (62%)

Consultants (45%)

Colleagues at similar business (27%)

Colleagues within my organization (26%)

Contractors (18%)

Corporate Energy Manager (17%)

Governmental agencies (15%)

Vendors (15%)


Improved reliabil-ity

22%

Cleaner power28%

Better customer service6%

More programs and services to help customers lower their en-

ergy use 44%

Source: The Nielsen Company E Source 2013 Energy SurveyPercentages reflect weighted dataN=31,237 US consumers. Online panel

If your electric utility were given a grant to improve part of its business, what would you most like to see them invest in?


39%42%

45%48%

50%52%

64%

Percent rating electric provider’s overall performance as “very good”

Residential Energy-Use Study || © 2013 E Source Companies LLC

Customer Satisfaction Increases with Program Participation

0

23

45

6

1

Number of programs participated

N= 30,119 for 0, 3893 for 1, 1293 for 2, 475 for 3, 175 for 4, 69 for 5, and 64 for 6


Extensive Innovation Throughout the Efficiency Industry


NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision REV is an energy modernization initiative that will fundamentally

transform the way electricity is distributed and used in New York State. REV will build a bridge to a cleaner, more efficient and affordable energy

system by: Creating the power grid of the future and enabling customers to

better manage and reduce their energy costs. Focusing on system efficiency, total bills, carbon emissions,

technology innovations, resiliency and competitive markets around customers

Addressing issues like rising electric bills, reliability, resiliency, emission reductions, jobs and the low income “electric divide”.

REV will help protect the environment, lower energy costs and create opportunities for economic growth.


New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision (REV)


Hurdles Ahead

Inconsistent Tracking

Inconsistent Reporting

Insufficient Innovation inEvaluation

Utility Commissioners and Air Regulators Speak DifferentLanguages


Efforts Underway to Achieve Consistency in DSM On Tracking and Reporting:

LBNL. Report #LBNL-6370E. Energy Efficiency Program Typology and Data Metrics: Enabling Multi-State Analyses Through the Use of Common Terminology. August 28, 2013.

On Evaluations: DOE’s Uniform Methods Project NEEP’s EM&V Forum California Energy Efficiency Evaluation Protocols

http://energy.gov/eere/about-us/ump-home

http://www.neep.org/initiatives/emv-forum

http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/27629E7A-F01A-48CA-8B2C-B07ECEE7DD5A/0/CAEnergyEfficiencyEvaluationProtocols.doc


Conclusions CPP will likely kick start the next ramp up in DSM

spending Rate of innovation will only accelerate in coming

years Challenge: Sorting the wheat from the chaff

Now is a good time to think about upgrading your tracking and reporting systems

Monitor the innovation that will arise out of initiatives such as NY REV (California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Minnesota)


Tim StoutSenior Fellow, E Source

303-345-9188 [email protected]

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