www.cpag.org.uk

Bill Sargent Trust Lecture

27th June 2012

Child Poverty Act

• All parties signed up to Child Poverty Act• Commits all UK governments to end child poverty

by 2020• Transformed from a target to a binding legal duty• ‘Fairness’ agenda

Why target child poverty in the UK?

• Child poverty more than doubled 1979 – 1997:

1979 1997 1998/99

% (BHC) 13 27 26% (AHC) 14 33 34No.(BHC) millions1.8 3.4 3.4mNo.(AHC) millions2.0 4.2 4.4m

(Poverty = below 60% median equivalised, household income, Department of Work and Pensions (2010) HBAI: 1994/95-2008/09)

• 1998/99 year child poverty target set – base year

Stealing away children’s life chances• Education divide – poorer children 9 months

behind (Hirsch D, 2007)• Health divide – socio-economic conditions mean

greater risk heart disease, death by stroke, disability, poor mental health (Spencer N, 2008)

• Wellbeing divide – negative impact on relationship with parents, educational orientation, low self-worth and risky behaviour (Tomlinson and Walker, 2009)

• Costs £25 billion a year in public spending (JRF, 2008)

Progress to dateActual figures and projections:

BHC AHCBaseline year 98/99: 3.4 million 4.4 millionLatest official figures 10/11: 2.3 million 3.6 million

IFS estimate for 20/21: 3.3 million 4.3 millionGov’t target for 20/21: 1.3 million* N/A

(* 10% of children based on 2010/11 population count)

Sources: HBAI 1998/99-2010/11; Children and Working-Age poverty from 2010 to 2020, IFS 2010.

Income and life chances

• No. of children failing to get any qualification declined from 35,000 in 1999 to 7,000 in 2009

• Attainment gap between poor children, those claiming free school meals, and other children, declined between 2003 and 2008

• increased income affects parental psychological functioning and children’s socio-emotional and health outcomes

• Child wellbeing improved on 36 out of 48 child indicators – 1997-2010 (Bradshaw, 2011)

Historical Trend – since 1970

Budget and Spending Review 2010

• £81bn public sector cuts - benefits and services• £18bn in benefit cuts (£20bn in all)• CB freeze and cut, tax credits slashed

(disregards, taper, help with childcare, etc), baby/toddler elements, HiP grant, SS grant, Child Trust Fund, cuts to DLA, CTB and HB

• Poorest families hardest hit - particularly families with young children

2012/13

We face child poverty crisis• For poorest families - high inflation, rising

unemployment, stagnating wages• Triple whammy - £18bn benefit cuts, service cuts

and advice sector cuts – more to come through cuts to legal aid.

• Largest cuts are still to come – 12% so far• April 2012 - £2.5 bn benefits and tax credits cuts• Budget 2012 – possible £10bn more benefit cuts• Steve Hilton report – proposed £25 billion cuts!• David Cameron speech – 25th June 2012

Child poverty set to rise• Claim - no measurable impact on child poverty for

the next two years – up to April 2013• Child Tax Credit rise removed in Autumn

statement – 100,000 rise child poverty (Treasury)• Latest IFS projections show child poverty will rise

by 800,000 between 2010 and 2020• Rise of 900,000 children on ‘absolute’ measure• Also likely rises in persistent poverty and

deprivation levels

Some conclusions• Investment in the early years and early

intervention – yes• But don’t neglect income – a long way to go to

reduce the scandal of child poverty• Last time poverty rose on this scale – the

government’s preferred indicators went up• Tackle low pay and quality of jobs• Ensure Universal Credit works to improve

incentives to work and to progress in work – invest more, lower taper, improve design

• Benefit cuts will damage all this

What works?• Worth reminding ourselves - what benefits all

families, including the ‘squeezed middle’ also benefits poor families – good quality jobs, decent pay levels, decent Child Benefit, universal childcare, family-friendly jobs, decent insurance benefits, high quality services - poverty prevention

• Or else - looming crisis of wasted lives and life chances being snatched away

• Not inevitable – it’s what will happen if no action taken to stop it

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