wtpv - curie wtpv aug14.pdfa key sticking point in negotiations has been a demand by main...

WTPVBRIEFINGWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

august 2014

in-depth: ukraine

new round of hostilities in Gaza

al-qaida aviation threat warninG

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Israeli ground forces on 17 July entered the gaza strip (Palestinian territories) in an escalation of Operation Protective Edge, which began on 8 July. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated that the offensive’s main objective was to disable cross-border tunnels that could be used for militant infiltration into Israel. the air force and the navy are participating in the operation.

the ground offensive began a day after a uN-brokered five-hour humanitarian ceasefire, highlighting the fragility of ceasefire efforts, and quickly saw an escalation in casualty figures: more than 800 Palestinians and 35 Israelis had reportedly been killed as of 25 July. a key sticking point in negotiations has been a demand by main Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas that Israel release a number of prisoners who were first freed as part of a prisoner exchange deal in 2011, but rearrested following the kidnap and murder of three Israeli teenagers in June.

Israel’s expanded operation may force Hamas to agree to a truce in the short term, but any ceasefire is likely to be precarious. Hamas’ demands are unlikely to be met in full, reducing its incentive to comply fully. Furthermore, Hamas does not have full control over the activities of other gaza-based militant groups that are capable of firing rockets, which may persist with small-scale provocations of Israel of their own accord.

Even following a cessation of hostilities, unresolved disagreements over Palestinian rights are likely to lead to further flare-ups of violence in the coming months and years. Israeli military campaigns are not aimed at destroying Hamas – which would create an even more dangerous power vacuum in gaza – but rather at reducing the acute threat of militancy. Hamas and other groups will retain some residual rocket capacity and are likely to resume weapons-smuggling.

Cover story: israel Gaza offensive 2

transnational terrorism 3

in-depth: ukraine 4-5

Global incidents 6-9

taBle of Contents

smoke rises into the air in Rafah in the southern gaza strip following an Israeli air strike

hundreds killed in latest round of fiGhtinG in Gaza

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transnational terrorisM

somali Islamist extremist group al-shabab in early July carried out attacks in Mogadishu (somalia) and Lamu (Kenya), while unknown gunmen carried out grenade attacks on restaurants in arusha (tanzania) and Wajir (Kenya). In the attack in Mogadishu, gunmen attacked the heavily fortified presidential palace (Villa somalia) in the somali capital. Following the detonation of a car bomb, at least nine al-shabab fighters entered the palace and battled with security forces, who later regained control of the building.

the attacks underscore the increasingly regional scope of terrorist attacks in East africa. the region has long been a potential base for militant groups and location for attacks, as evidenced by the 1998 embassy bombings in Nairobi (Kenya) and Dar es salaam (tanzania). However, the spread of weapons and explosives – particularly from the somali conflict –, the regional ambitions of al-shabab and the influence of radical elements within Muslim communities have resulted in significantly more widespread attacks.

although Islamist militants carry out most attacks in the region, not all incidents are linked to terrorism: a number of attacks in Kenya and tanzania have not been claimed by al-shabab or its affiliates. such incidents are more likely to be connected to local business disputes, religious tensions or the activities of organised criminal networks. the ready availability of explosive devices means that an increasing number of actors have access to material usually associated with terrorists.

the terrorism threat will persist in the region in the medium-to-long term. Many countries are ill-prepared to tackle the underlying drivers of terrorism – including the spread of extremist networks and the proliferation of arms and explosives – and have rejected al-shabab’s demand to end their military involvement in somalia. Moreover, counter-terrorism policies aimed at broad sections of the population (Kenya) or designed to suppress government critics (Ethiopia) are in fact increasing radicalisation and facilitating the spread of Islamist extremist networks.

aqap threat to aviation

east afriCa attaCks

us and British transport officials on 2 July said that airport security would be stepped up in response to a ‘credible threat’ reportedly linked to Yemen and syria.

a threat to aviation emanating from Yemen is plausible. Yemen-based al-Qaida in the arabian Peninsula (aQaP) has consistently targeted aviation with innovative improvised explosive devices (IEDs), executing near-miss attacks in 2009 and 2010. the timing of the warning – which came ahead of the national 4 July holiday in the us and during peak travel season – is also in line with aQaP efforts to maximise damage and disruption. aQaP emir Nasir al-Wuhayshi in april threatened attacks against the us in an internet video.

the reported syria angle is likely to reflect concerns that aQaP has trained syrian jihadists in aviation attack methods. since assuming a more central administrative role in al-Qaida’s global organisation in 2013, aQaP has financed and trained al-Qaida affiliates and like-minded groups in the sahel, East africa, Libya and syria. the group has close links to al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in syria, while a senior aQaP operative – Hatem al-Mamoun – has maintained outreach to the Islamic state of Iraq and syria since 2013.

the us and other Western countries believe that aQaP poses the greatest transnational terrorist threat, principally because of its demonstrated ability to smuggle IEDs through aviation security. an aQaP operative, umar Farouk abdulmutallab, narrowly failed to execute a December 2009 suicide bomb attack on a Northwest airlines flight landing in Detroit, while only a tip-off from saudi arabia’s intelligence service averted bombings on two cargo flights in October 2010. aQaP also developed a new bomb design for a planned attack in May 2012, which was disrupted because the bomber was a saudi informant.

a commercial airliner prepares for take-off at Dubai International airport

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in-depth: ukraine

the security situation in eastern ukraine remains highly volatile. at least three people were killed and another was injured on 21 July in clashes around Donetsk International airport and Donetsk railway station, while pro-Russia militants on 23 July reportedly used anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down two ukrainian military aircraft near the village of Dmytrivka (Donetsk). the incident took place approximately 20 miles (32km) from where flight MH017 was brought down. Further violence in the region, including government air strikes and rebel attacks against the army and anti-aircraft missile strikes against military aircraft, remains probable, though instability is unlikely to spread to neighbouring provinces.

an invasion by Russian forces also remains unlikely, despite the risk of sporadic cross-border fire and the redeployment of around 10,000 Russian troops to border areas with ukraine in mid-July. such moves and subsequent withdrawals have been reported since the start of the crisis in the east in april, and are likely to be aimed at putting increased pressure on the ukrainian government to end its operations in the region, rather than pointing to a conventional, full-scale invasion.

Rebels have mounted continued resistance to the government campaign against them since Poroshenko at the start of July pledged to rout them ‘within days’. they have been unable to seize the city of Donetsk, but remain in control of parts of the border with Russia, resulting in government shelling of and airstrikes on their positions. such activity has emerged as a major source of tensions with Russia.

there have been no direct talks between the government and the rebels’ political leadership. such discussions appear unlikely unless the rebels lay down their weapons.

Crash throws renewed spotliGht on ConfliCt

the conflict in eastern ukraine was thrown into sharp international focus on 17 July by the crash of a Malaysia airlines Boeing 777 carrying 298 passengers and crew in the Donetsk region, killing everyone on board. us intelligence sources claimed that a surface-to-air missile was used to destroy the aircraft, though responsibility for the incident has yet to be established: both the ukrainian government and pro-Russia rebels have blamed each other. there is no evidence to suggest the plane was deliberately targeted.

the incident underscores the real potential for the conflict in eastern ukraine to enter a significantly more serious phase. although an escalation does not appear imminent, domestic pressure on ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to increase military action against the rebels will grow. Moreover, with victims representing many nations, the development gives a wider international dimension to the conflict. the incident is likely to lead to a more concerted international effort to end the security crisis in eastern ukraine through talks, and Western pressure is likely to be exerted on both ukraine and the rebels to engage in negotiations.

Postings on social media sites, including intercepted communications between the rebels and a Russian military intelligence officer, appear to corroborate the ukrainian government’s assertion that rebels were responsible for bringing the aircraft down, having mistaken it for a ukrainian military plane. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has blamed Poroshenko for the crash, claiming that it was the ukrainian president’s decision to escalate his government’s military campaign against rebels at the beginning of July that led to serious and sustained violence in the region.

seCurity situation reMains volatile

Experts take photographs of the wreckage of flight MH017

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the upper chamber of the Russian parliament in late June formally accepted President Vladimir Putin’s request to annul a presidential decree that had conferred on Russia the right to intervene in eastern ukraine on the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.

Nevertheless, while the rescinding of formal legal authority for intervention in ukraine indicates that the threat of a Russian invasion of eastern ukraine is now minimal, it does not mean that Russia’s involvement in the ukrainian unrest has ended. Reliable intelligence points to a continued flow of Russian weapons, as well as volunteer fighters, across the border into ukraine.

Putin’s decision appears to have come in response to concerted Western pressure, including existing sanctions, and Poroshenko’s attempts to initiate a peace process and negotiations with the rebels. Russia used the notion that Russian law applies extraterritorially to communities of ethnic Russians or Russian-speakers as the legal pretext for military intervention in georgia in august 2008. Russia insists that everyone with Russian citizenship is entitled to protection by the Russian state, up to and including the use of military force.

threat of russian invasion reCedes

ukrainian armoured vehicles pass a barricade in central sloviansk

failed Ceasefire

Poroshenko on 1 July ordered the armed forces to take action to end the uprising by pro-Russian rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Despite coming under strong Western and Russian pressure to extend a ceasefire that he unilaterally introduced on 23 June, he blamed the refusal of rebels to observe the ceasefire as the reason for ordering renewed attacks. Poroshenko is likely to have been motivated to end the ceasefire not only by frequent rebel violations, but also by growing personal criticism by political opponents and parts of the security establishment of his failure to take more decisive action.

Poroshenko had previously warned that continued violations of the ceasefire by the rebels would cause him to cancel the initiative and order a resumption of his government’s ‘anti-terrorist operation’. In reality, more than a hundred separate rebel violations of the ceasefire were recorded while it was in force.

the rebellion in the east began in March, with an official death toll exceeding 400 people. While remaining localised to between ten and 12 medium-sized towns, it has nonetheless caused significant logistical and supply chain disruption in a region (the Donbass) that accounts for 15% of ukraine’s economic output.

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GloBal inCidents

Nine people were killed and 19 others were injured in Benghazi on 23 July during clashes between special forces unit the saiqa Brigade and Islamist militia ansar al-sharia. the previous day, four people were killed when a double suicide bomb attack targeted the brigade’s camp in the Buatni district of the city.

liBya

Chilethe Ministry of Defence and aviation authority on 21 July suspended the opening of a new airport in the southern city of temuco following the takeover of the airport’s terminal by 35 indigenous Mapuche activists on 19 July. the activists allegedly sabotaged the lighting system for the landing strip, threatening the safety of planes landing at the airport.

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Police on 16 July shot, injured and detained Nikos Maziotis, the fugitive alleged leader of left-wing terrorist group Revolutionary struggle, in an exchange of fire on a busy commercial street in the centre of the capital athens. two bystanders, both foreign tourists, suffered minor injuries in the incident.

GreeCe

seven people were killed on 18 July when gunmen attacked a passenger bus and a police vehicle near Witu (Lamu county). al-shabab claimed responsibility. In a separate incident, unidentified gunmen on 20 July indiscriminately fired on passers-by in the coastal city of Mombasa, killing at least four people.

kenya

an Elite Force security official and a militant were killed on 17 July during a ten-hour gun and grenade battle between police and militants in the Raiwind area of Lahore district, on the outskirts of the city of Lahore. the clashes began when police and paramilitary officials launched a search operation following an intelligence tip-off in arayian village, 1.25 miles (2km) from Prime Minister Nawaz sharif’s private home.

pakistan

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GloBal inCidents

nicaragua

China

kenya

afriCa

aMeriCas

asia

at least four people, including two members of the security forces, were killed and several others were injured on 5 July in a suicide car bomb attack near the main gate of the parliament building in Mogadishu. al-shabab claimed responsibility for the attack.

Mozambiquesporadic attacks continued in sofala province in June and early July. a local official confirmed two attacks on 30 June, while a further attack was reported on 1 July. Four people were reportedly injured in the three attacks, which occurred on a stretch of National Road 1 between the save River and Muxungue.

somalia

al-shabab on 5 July killed at least 29 people in two raids on a trading centre in Hindi (Lamu county) and a police station in gamba (tana River county). the raids came after unidentified gunmen on 24 June attacked the town of Witu, killing at least 11 people.

ugandaat least 72 people were killed on 5 July in Bundibugyo, Kasese and Ntoroko (Western region), on the border with Congo (DRC), when unidentified gunmen launched co-ordinated attacks on police stations and military barracks. an army spokesman said that the attacks were related to a local tribal dispute.

nigeriaa car bomb detonated on 25 June near the Emab plaza and Banex plaza shopping centres (malls) in the Wuse II district of the capital abuja, killing at least 21 people and injuring 52 others.

gunmen on 20 July killed five people and injured at least 25 others in two attacks on buses carrying supporters of the ruling sandinista National Liberation Front (FsLN/sandinistas) in the northern department of Matagalpa. the buses were returning from a celebration of the 35th anniversary of the sandinista Revolution in the capital Managua attended by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, among others.

MexicoMore than 20 people were injured on 9 July in the san Bernardino Chalchihuapan area of Puebla state when riot police attempted to disperse protesters blocking the Puebla-atlixco highway.

state media on 8 July reported that authorities had dismantled more than 40 ‘violent terror gangs’ and arrested more than 400 people in Xinjiang uighur autonomous Region since the start of a security clampdown in May.

Myanmaraccording to local media, 1,000 policemen were deployed in Mandalay – the country’s second-largest city – on 2 July after riots broke out on 1 July between members of the Buddhist majority and the Muslim minority. at least three people were injured in the clashes, including a policeman.

pakistana Pakistani military official on 20 July said that a civilian had been killed as a result of firing by Indian troops across the disputed border separating Pakistan- and Indian-administered Kashmir. the incident followed several days of allegations of ceasefire violations.

afghanistanat least one civilian was killed and three others were injured on 19 July when an explosive device targeting the security forces detonated in the northern city of Mazar-e-sharif. the device was placed near a security forces vehicle in the Baba Yadgar area of the city.

north koreaNorth Korea on 14 July fired approximately 100 rockets and artillery shells from the eastern province of Kangwon, close to the demilitarised zone (DMZ).

venezuelatwenty students in san Cristóbal (táchira state), were injured during protests on 2 July. the students were protesting against persistently high levels of insecurity following the kidnapping, torture and murder of 22 year-old student Bárbara Vivas, whose body was found on 1 July.

paraguaya bomb attack on 4 July by suspected members of the army of the Paraguayan People leftist guerrilla group brought down two electricity pylons near the city of Horqueta (Concepción department). More than 700,000 people were left without power for more than a day as a result of the attack.

ColombiaMembers of the Revolutionary armed Forces of Colombia leftist guerrilla group on 3 July allegedly detonated explosive devices in Orito (Putumayo department). according to local sources, three explosions occurred in quick succession at around 22.30, causing material damage to several buildings.

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france

europe

Middle east and north afriCa

Eighteen people were arrested in the capital Paris and sarcelles – a suburb ten miles (16km) north of the city – on 18-19 July during protests against Israel’s military offensive in gaza. significant disorder resulted, including vandalism and looting targeting Jewish-owned businesses.

Germany

kyrgyzstana tajik national was killed and seven others were injured on 10 July when Kyrgyz and tajik border guards clashed in tamdyk (Batken province).

norwaythe Police security service, the domestic security service, on 24 July said that it had received intelligence from another country suggesting the existence of a specific plot to conduct a terrorist attack in Norway in the coming days.

egyptgunmen armed with rocket-propelled grenades on 20 July reportedly killed 22 Egyptian soldiers at a checkpoint near the Libyan border in Egypt’s Western Desert. Egyptian army officials claimed that soldiers also intercepted two car bombs near the scene of the attack before the devices could be detonated.

libya

the Israeli military on 15 July conducted several air strikes in the syrian-controlled part of the golan Heights, targeting a military base and administrative sites in and near Baath City, killing at least four people.

saudi arabiasix suspected aQaP militants on 4 July attacked the Wadia border crossing between saudi arabia and Yemen. three gunmen and two border officials were killed in an ensuing firefight, while saudi security forces detained another gunman.

israel/syria

Militia groups on 14 July fired grad rockets at tripoli International airport, causing extensive damage to the airport’s facilities and parked aircraft. the attack followed the start of an offensive on 13 July by Islamist-aligned militias against armed groups from Zintan which control the airport.

yemengovernment officials on 12 July said that tribesmen earlier the same day had blown up a section of the country’s main oil export pipeline in the Habab area of Marib province. the pipeline had previously been targeted in May and suffered around 40 attacks in 2013.

ukrainethe government on 14 July claimed that a missile fired from Russia had brought down an military aircraft on the same day near Luhansk in eastern ukraine. NatO the same day reported that Russia had redeployed a significant number of troops along its shared border with ukraine.

a series of attacks on vehicles took place across the capital Berlin between 9 and 14 July. the targets included car dealerships and vehicles parked on the street. anarchists are likely to have been responsible.

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wtpv - curie wtpv aug14.pdfa key sticking point in negotiations has been a demand by main...

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