Dr Will Stahl-Timmins

March 2014

VISUALISING HEALTH RESEARCH

POTENTIAL MECHANISMS OF CHANGE / PROCESS OUTCOMES

SPIRITUALITYCHANGE IN PERSONAL / SOCIAL IDENTITY

SOCIAL CONTACT

BEING AWAY FROM STRESSORSRESTORATION / RECUPERATION

ACHIEVEMENT / CONTRIBUTION

KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION

SELF-CONFIDENCE

ENJOYMENT/PLEASUREGOING INTO NATUREPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

WELLBEING AND THE ENVIRONMENT:POSSIBLE LINKS BETWEEN CONSERVATION ACTIVITIES AND HEALTH

ENVIRONMENTAL MODERATORS

ACTIVITY MODERATORS

MECHANISM MODERATORS

PERSONAL MEDIATORS

CHANGE IN SOCIAL / GROUP

COHESION

TYPE OF ENVIRONMENTAL

CHANGE

ENJOYMENT

ACHIEVEMENT(S)

DEVELOPMENTOF SOCIAL

CAPITAL

ACTIVITY TYPE /INTENSITY

TYPE

DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL

CHANGE

QUIETNESS

FEATURES

CONTEXT(AWAY / NEAR)

TYPE OFENGAGEMENT

OTHERPARTICIPANTS

TYPE OF PROGRAMME (AIMS, OBJECTIVES, ETC.)

ENGAGEMENTROUTE(S)

EXPECTATIONS

FULFILMENT

MOTIVATIONS

PERSONALIDENTIFICATION

PERCEPTIONSOF SELF

SOCIALIDENTITY

PHYSICALABILITY

EXPECTATIONS

MENTALHEALTH

SOCIALFUNCTION

PHYSICALHEALTH

QUALITYOF LIFE

OTHERACTIVITIES

Seeing is BelievingRandomised, controlled study

Measuring impact of visualisation on knowledge and risk perception

Quota sample, using online market research panel (926 participants)

Working Group II Report impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability !Chapter 8 Human Health

FLOODS AND STORMSGL

OBAL

TRE

NDS

FLOO

D CA

USES

HEAL

TH IM

PACT

S

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY

CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH

ASSUMPTIONS

Global temperature rise

Global Sea level rise

Increase in monsoon rains

Increase in monsoondischarge into rivers

People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm

If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.

CASE STUDY 2: USAStudies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.

INFECTIOUSDISEASES

TOXIC CON-TAMINATION

MENTALHEALTH

RAINFALL EVAPORATIONSEA LEVEL SURFACERUN-OFF

LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS

The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events.

Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise.

Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood.

Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms.

Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air.

Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground.

Sometimes, the shape of the land can make areas vulnerable to flooding.

The number of people living in cities is growing, particularly in low income countries.

= 100m people in towns or cities

Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.

Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This informationgraphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and

shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.

LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA

BAY OF BENGAL(particularly atrisk from stormsurges)

VULNERABLE PEOPLE

Those living in Low lying places(especially thosewith high density)

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline.

In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Such as children, theinfirm, or those livingin sub-standard housing.

Poorer communities

Those with limitedability to escape

VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA

Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries.

Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women.

VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED

Particularly inplaces withpoor sanitation:

From storage orfrom chemicalsalready in theenvironment:

Insufficientlyinvestigated,but may include:

Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste

Post-traumaticstress

Behaviouraldisorders inchildren

Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS

2.5–4m belowsea level by 2100

NEW ORLEANS (USA)

1.5–3m belowsea level now

This would mean that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.

Mid-range estimate of 48 cm sea level rise by 2100 plussubsidence

FLOODS AND STORMSGL

OBAL

TRE

NDS

FLOO

D CA

USES

HEAL

TH IM

PACT

S

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY

CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH

ASSUMPTIONS

Global temperature rise

Global Sea level rise

Increase in monsoon rains

Increase in monsoondischarge into rivers

People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm

If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.

CASE STUDY 2: USAStudies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.

INFECTIOUSDISEASES

TOXIC CON-TAMINATION

MENTALHEALTH

RAINFALL EVAPORATIONSEA LEVEL SURFACERUN-OFF

LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS

The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events.

Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise.

Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood.

Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms.

Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air.

Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground.

Sometimes, the shape of the land can make areas vulnerable to flooding.

The number of people living in cities is growing, particularly in low income countries.

= 100m people in towns or cities

Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.

Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This informationgraphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and

shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.

LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA

BAY OF BENGAL(particularly atrisk from stormsurges)

VULNERABLE PEOPLE

Those living in Low lying places(especially thosewith high density)

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline.

In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Such as children, theinfirm, or those livingin sub-standard housing.

Poorer communities

Those with limitedability to escape

VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA

Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries.

Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women.

VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED

Particularly inplaces withpoor sanitation:

From storage orfrom chemicalsalready in theenvironment:

Insufficientlyinvestigated,but may include:

Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste

Post-traumaticstress

Behaviouraldisorders inchildren

Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS

2.5–4m belowsea level by 2100

NEW ORLEANS (USA)

1.5–3m belowsea level now

This would mean that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.

Mid-range estimate of 48 cm sea level rise by 2100 plussubsidence

GLOB

AL T

REND

SFL

OOD

CAUS

ESHE

ALTH

IMPA

CTS

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY INFECTIOUSDISEASES

TOXIC CON-TAMINATION

RAINFALL EVAPORATIONSEA LEVEL SURFACERUN-OFF

190019502005

FLOODS

This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events.

Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise.

Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood.

Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms.

Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air.

Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground.

LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA

BAY OF BENGAL(particularly atrisk from stormsurges)

VULNERABLE PEOPLE

Those living in Low lying places(especially thosewith high density)

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline.

In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Such as children, theinfirm, or those livingin sub-standard housing.

Poorer communities

Those with limitedability to escape

VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA

Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries.

VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED

Particularly inplaces withpoor sanitation:

From storage orfrom chemicalsalready in theenvironment:Diarrhoeal

diseases

Cholera

Oil

Pesticides

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

6

5

3

4

RISK GROUP 1:STORMS & FLOODS

RISK GROUP 2:AIR QUALITY

dmean

approval

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

6 mins

3 mins

RISK GROUP 1:STORMS & FLOODS

RISK GROUP 2:AIR QUALITY

mean viewtime (log10)

a b

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

80%

70%

60%

RISK GROUP 1:STORMS & FLOODS

RISK GROUP 2:AIR QUALITY

d

meanknowledge

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

28

21

14

RISK GROUP 1:STORMS & FLOODS

RISK GROUP 2:AIR QUALITY

cmean risk

perception

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

meanknowledge

(baseline)

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

(time 2)

meanknowledge

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

meanrisk perception

(baseline)

KEY MEAN& 95% CI

ANOVASIGNIFICANT

(P < 0.05)

ANOVA NOTSIGNIFICANT

(P > 0.05)

CONTROLCONDITION

TEXTCONDITION

GRAPHICCONDITION

meanrisk perception

(time 2)

control graphictext

Mean knowledge

80%

70%

60%

50%

Error Bars: 95% CI

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77Age

group:

Conclusions

- This type of box / arrow diagram can be used to communicate information on climate change health impacts in less time and more effectively than using text, for this audience.

- The technique might be used to effectively present other non-linear narratives.

- Non-linear information graphics like this could be particularly useful for younger audiences

- The study suggests that understanding the mechanisms for climate change health impacts could increase risk awareness.

Limitations

-Questions asked only test limited knowledge.

-Captive audience - doesn’t investigate whether information graphics also attract attention.

-Higher drop-out in experimental conditions.

– More in high socio-economic status groups than national average

– Only surveys internet users

Software:

Presentation software Illustrator InDesign !

Premiere Flash !

Processing / D3 PhP / HTML5 Other programming languages

Stills {Motion}

Interactive {

Stahl- Timmins, W.; Pitt, M. & Peters, J.

2010.

Graphical presentation of data for health policy decisions: An exploratory online decision task experiment to measure effectiveness.

Information Design Journal 18:3.

Processing

http://processing.org/

Dr Will Stahl-Timmins

blog.willstahl.com

Twitter: @will_s_t

www.thebmj.com