WP4: Finalisation of D12 and related work

•What has the completed work told us?

•What additional analyses could/should be undertaken of D12 results?

•What papers can be produced based on D12 work?

Principles of verification

• Predictor dataset : NCEP reanalysis• Predictand datasets: “FIC dataset” and regional sets• Study regions• Stations within regions• Core indices• Verification period: 1979-1994 (for compatibility with

ERA15-driven regional models)• Training period: 1958-1978 & 1995-2000• Statistics: RMSE, SPEARMAN-RANK-CORR for each

station/index

Study Regions

UK: 6 stations

Iberia: 16 stationsGreece: 8 stations

Italy: 7 stations

Alps: 10 stations

Germany: 10 stations

The ‘FIC dataset’

Partners/regions

Iberia Greece Alps Germany UK Italy

UEA x x x x x x

KCL x x

ARPA-SMR x x

ADGB x

AUTH x x

USTUTT-IWS & FTS x x

ETH x x

FIC x x x x x x

DMI x x x x x x

UNIBE x

CNRS x x

Core indices

Questions• Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region,

core index and season?• Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and

summer?• Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions?• Is there any systematic difference between

– Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal circulation indices

– Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the seasonal core indices are calculated from these.

• Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage?

UK – 90th percentile rainday amounts

Iberia – 90th percentile rainday amounts

Greece – 90th percentile rainday amounts

Greece – Tmax 90th percentile

Answers to questions• Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region,

core index and season? Large scatter between stations• Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and

summer? Generally better performance in winter in areas affected by Atlantic weather systems

• Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions? Generally better performance in the regions affected by the westerlies

• Is there any systematic difference between– Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal

circulation indices– Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the

seasonal core indices are calculated from these.No obvious systematic difference between direct and indirect methods

• Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage? Requires further work

Reasons?

• Inhomogeneity of station data

• Too short verification and calibration period

• Missing predictors

• Stochasticity

Additional analyses

• Closer inspection to find ’bad’ stations

• More detailed regional analysis

Papers

• No common core paper from D12 - but may be later from D16

• Regional papers