This project is co-funded

by the European Union

WP10 Macro-economic Modelling

Project Meeting, 9-10 February 2016

Venue: Brussels

Arnaud Fougeyrollas, Pierre Le Mouël and Paul Zagamé, SEURECO

Content

• How can we progress towards the assessment with NEMESIS:

1. Some general remarks

2. State of the art of model

3. Main modifications

4. Main concerns

• Open Discussion

2

General remarks

• Deliverables reveal an important work of bibliography and research

• For the commitments rationale and solution, for the impact channel, for

indicators

• Documents that can be useful for policy makers and scientists

• Some did try to make an advancement towards NEMESIS : Human Capital,

Finance

• How to progress in the next steps

3

General remarks

Commitment

Rationale

Solution Main Impact

Channel

Results of

Indicators

Model

Modifications

Simulations Socio-

Economic

impacts

4

State of the Art of NEMESIS

• All innovation comes from knowledge variation

Δ Knowledge Innovations

5

State of the Art of NEMESIS

Innovations

Price

Quality

6

Internal and external Demand

State of the Art of NEMESIS

Pure Macro Dynamic

Intersectoral Dynamic

Macro

Sectoral

Results

7

Sectoral Growth

State of the Art of NEMESIS: General Scheme

8

State of the Art of NEMESIS: Calibration

• R&D Decision:

• Endogenous

• Exogenous (Hall & Toads, 2000, Guellec & Van Pottelsberghe, 2004, Aerts &

Schmidt, 2008

• Elasticity of supply ε of scientists

• Spillovers matrix (DEMETER project - Meijers and Verspagen 2010) and

SIMPATIC project - Mohnen and Belderbos, 2013)

• β Coefficient (Hall, Mairesse, Mohnen, 2009)9

State of the Art of NEMESIS: Effects

• All effects pass by variation of :

• R&D real increase

• Finance conditions

• R&D decisions

• Supply of scientists and Human Capital

• Supply of capital goods for R&D

• Knowledge spillovers

• β economic performance

10

Main modifications: Variables

• Knowledge

• R&D

• Human Capital

11

Main modifications:¨Parameters

• ε (elasticity of supply for scientists)

• Spillovers

• β (economic performance of knowledge)

12

Main modifications: Behavioural equations

• R&D decision (Finance)

• Other innovative assets demand

13

Main modifications: Extension to other assets

• ICT

• Other intangibles (Training, software...)

• Extension allowed by new databases (INTAN-invest) and

the work of C. Corrado, J. Haskel & C. Jona Lasinio (2014)

14

Main modifications/commitments

• Looking at this table :

15

R&D Human Capital

and ε

Spillovers Knowledge Performance Economic

Results

Commitment

Main modifications: Commitments 1,2,3 of WP1

• Developping scientific and human capabilities, fostering knowledge

alliances between education and business to develop new curicula

addressing innovation and skill gaps and particularly e-skills for

innovation

• Major impact on human capital skills for scientists in general : Human

capital, ε and then on R&D ; impacts on e-skills

• Derived effect on spillovers

• On Knowledge (Patents)

16

Main modifications: Commitments 10,11,12 (Finance)

• Major impacts on R&D decision and then on additionality

and leverage

• An interesting case, the RSFF: How the reduction of risk

modifies the R&D decision and then the leverage effect?

17

Main concerns

1. Some commitments have very few or no credible quantitative approach, what can

we do with the qualitative results

2. Some commitments have quantitative results richer than the simplified

mechanisms of models (number of publication or patents) : how to proceed to not

loose this richness, and to reagregate all these results to fit with the NEMESIS

mechanisms

18

Main concerns

3. Some commitments have a too coarse granularity to be directly expoited by NEMESIS, for

instance the sectoral aspects. How to allocate and differentiate the parameters between

the sectors. The use of the theory to make this “split”

4. The case studies:

• Is the case studied important enough to give macro-results?

• How case studies could give more general insights to be used in modelling?

5. Overlaping and colinearity

• Intra-commitments

• Inter commitments

19

Main concerns

6. Modification of the Model:

• Variables

• parameters

• behavioural equations

7. Degree of implementation of the commitments ?

20