wp 4: climate change and ocean acidification 1st annual meeting paris, 9-11 may 2011 macroes
TRANSCRIPT
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WP 4: Climate Change
and Ocean Acidification
1st Annual MeetingParis, 9-11 May 2011MACROES
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WP4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
WP4 main objectives:
--- Use the MACROES modelling framework to study the effects of anthropogenic emissions (greenhouse gases, aerosols) through climate change and ocean acidification on the marine ecosystems (incl. fish ressources)
--- A particular emphasis will be given to the identification and characterization of the feedbacks between the different (natural) systems considered here (climate, biogeochemical cycles, marine ecosystems)
WP4 structure:
--- 4.1 Impact of CC and OA on marine ecosystems: end-to-end--- 4.2 Retroactions in the coupled system
- Top-down control from higher to lower trophic levels- Biophysical coupling through heat trapping and bio-induced turbulence
--- 4.3 Impact of CC and OA on marine ecosystems: biodiversity
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WP4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
Les simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC
Le système de Modélisation Système Terre de l’IPSL
Quelques résultats avec IPSL-CM5
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CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)
Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC
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CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)
Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC
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CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)
Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC
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Nouveaux scénarios pour IPCC-AR5
(RCP = Representative Concentration Pathways)
Simulations réalisées cet été à l’IPSL
simulations longues RCP (1860-2100) (simulations décennales (1970-2030)
: à discuter)
Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC
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IPSL Earth System Model
NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL
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IPSL Earth System Model : Standard Version
NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL
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IPSL Earth System Model : Resolution? Atmospheric Physics?
NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL
IPSL-CM5A IPSL-CM5B
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- PISCES coupled to IPSL Climate Model
- Resolution: 2°x2°cos(
Simulations from 1860 to 2100 forced only by GHGs & aerosols
- Fluvial inputs / Dust deposition remain constant
NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL
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Climate Change impact on surface chlorophyll
250
450
650
850
6.0
3.0
0.0
RCP8.5RCP6.0RCP4.5RCP2.6Historical
T (°C)
Chl de surface (mgChl/m3)
0.15
0.17
0.19
Premiers Résultats avec CM5
CO2, T et chlorophylle de surface
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Climate Change Impact on surface chlorophyll : gyre extension
Premiers Résultats avec CM5
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Climate Change impact on marine productivity
(Steinacher et al. 2009)
IPSL
CCSM-1 CCSM-4
MPIM
Changes in NPP in 2100 (SRES-A2)
Comparaison avec d’autres modèles couplés
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Acidification : Impact du CO2aq sur les rapports C/N de la Matière Organique
- NEMO-PISCES- pCO2 from RCP8.5- C/N = f(pCO2)- Circulation unchanged
Tagliabue et al. GBC accepted
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Acidification : Impact du CO2aq sur les rapports C/N de la Matière Organique
- NEMO-PISCES- pCO2 from RCP8.5- Circulation unchanged
Tagliabue et al. GBC accepted
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Climate Change impact on marine productivity
- Evaluation of simulated Chl / NPP (Schneider et al. 2009)
(modelled PP vs SeaWifs PP)
Changement climatique et productivité marine
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Climate Change impact on marine productivity
IPSL-PISCES Changes in NPP in 2100 (Scenario SRES-A2)NPP in 2000
Changement climatique et productivité marine
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Climate Change impact on marine productivity : mechanisms
Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001, Doney et al. 2006
Changement climatique et productivité marine
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Climate Change impact on marine productivity : mechanisms
Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001, Doney et al. 2006
Changement climatique et productivité marine
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Etapes / Stratégie pour le WP4 End-to-End
Etape 1M12 : Simulations “offline” sur 1860-2100 (RCP8.5)
IPSL-CM PISCES-APECOSM M18 : Analyse de l’impact du CC (et OA) sur les écosystèmes
Etape 2M24: Mise en place de PISCES-APECOSM dans IPSL-CM Simulations “Online” 2000-2100 avec PISCES et PISCES/APECOSMM24 : Importance du top-down control dans un contexte de CC
Etape 3M42: Simulations “offline” sur 2000-2100 (biodiversité)
IPSL-CM PISCES-APECOSM-DEB/Biodiv (?)M48: Analyse de ces simulations