Worst Case Preparedness

or:

How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Budget

(Phil Smith & Dianna Chiabotti)

Worst Case Preparedness

or:

Budget Trends• Stock market fall on August 4, 2011• California State Budget has optimistic revenue projections

(a.k.a. at least some smoke-and-mirror action).• European Union:

Greece Ireland Spain Portugal

• Lowering of U.S. credit rating by Standard and Poor’s from AAA to AA+

• Unemployment high (U.S. in general, California in particular)

Political Trends

• Sense that not everyone is suffering equally

• Feeling that some/most/all government employees are getting more than their fair share

• Growing resentment against K-12 teachers as a group

• Education is viewed as a luxury in a bad economy behind food, gas, housing, and health care.

• Political gridlock at the state and national levels

Impact on California Community Colleges?

• Small cut

• Repeated small cuts

• Deep cut

Budget Cut Example

Three Scenarios• A large, comprehensive hospital has to

cut its budget by 1%...

• A large, comprehensive hospital has to cut its budget by 10%...

• A large, comprehensive hospital has to cut its budget by 25%...

My Focus:

Preparing for the Worst

Case Scenario

Disasters• Earthquakes• Hurricanes• Plane Crashes• Kidnappings• Shipwrecks• Active Shooters• Huge Budget Cuts

WARNINGThe next slide includes

simulated violence.

Active Shooter on Campus

Common Unprepared Reactions

DENIAL: “Those can’t be gun shots; it must be a car backfiring.”

Common Unprepared Reactions

PANIC:Drawing attention to yourself,running in front of shooter, engaging the shooter.

We’re all gonna die!

Common Unprepared Reactions

FREEZE IN FEAR:Catastrophizing, becoming an easy target,giving up.

• Develop a survivor mentality

• Create a disaster preparedness plan before the disaster occurs.

•Make sure the plan is well understood by all who could be impacted by the disaster.

OK, OK, I want to be a…

How? Some options…• TOTALLY TOP DOWN: one person

or a small group determines all section cuts and other budgetary matters.—Er…No.• TOTALLY DISTRIBUTED: each

division/department makes an equal cut according to its own criteria.—Er… No.

Is there another group facing similar challenges?

That is, an organization in which

•individual and collective interests may differ significantly;

•members are passionate about their work and points of view;

•and compromise is difficult

There might be:

Legislative Redistricting: Before

Members of the legislature developed and decided what the boundaries of their own electoral districts would be.

Legislative Redistricting: After

California voters created a Citizens Redistricting Committee to decide legislative district boundaries.

•It is a small group versus large group.

•Search committee looked for applicants with strong analytical skills, an ability to be impartial, and appreciation of California geography and diversity.

•It was required to be representative and fair.

•The committee is obligated to use clear guidelines and criteria in their decision making.

Suggestions for CCs Preparing for Budget Cuts

Probably best to have:•Small group not large.

•Strong analytical skills.

•Impartiality and fairness.

•Comprehensive representation.

•Clear criteria and guidelines.

Transparency: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Integrity of the Process•Necessary

•Thoughtful

•Challenging

What’s the Next Step?