Worst Case Climate Risk: (1) How

Bad?; (2) Cost-Effective response

“Is it worth $1 trillion/year to deeply reduce a 25%

probability of damage which could make humanity

extinct?” (John Kerry). What I learned in last big US effort.

We can “buy insurance” much more cost-effective than that.

© ib.bioninja.com.au

(1) Will Euxinia Kill All Humans?

How Big is the Risk, How Soon? Dr. Paul J. Werbos

Research Program Director, National Science

Foundation 1988-2015 (“AI”, power grids,quantum)

Detailed to Senator Specter/EPW in 2009:

THE PLACE AND YEAR OF US

CLIMATE BILLS

https://youtu.be/dvteE6smrF0 Werbos euxinia

Still active in IEEE and many other professional

groups like Chile Solar Energy Research

Consortium

US Senate skeptics 2009: “CO2

was >2000 ppm for millions of years

in earlier earth. Didn’t life just go on

as usual? How bad could it be?”

No one in the room knew,

but I decided to find out.

NSF Geosciences Director

Introduced World Expert of Mass

Death for Talk in 2009

At end, “my gut

feeling is we all die

if CO2 reaches 1000

ppm”

Peter Ward, $3 on

Kindle (really)

Good Bibliography

NSF Geosciences sponsored best data on past:

Graph from Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky,

adapted by Englander. Ward theory half right.

H2S in air

And

Radiation

Enough

To kill

All humans

But we already know what the two

factors are which cause H2S archaea

to proliferate (google “stinky aquarium”)

and see paper

by Kump

Low O2 in water: exactly Ward’s “stratified ocean,”

blocking the “lungs of the planet” (THC). How far are we?

NUTRIENT supply already hugely plentiful today thanks

to agriculture! 50,000BC low O2 but no agriculture (yet?)

Stoichiometry doesn’t work for Ward’s purple bug hope.

NOAA data: 40 years for Pacific O2?

But will the Pacific O2 get so low by

2050-60 that H2S bugs proliferate? How low is low enough? We need R&D on EXACT

conditions.

Will the rate of decline slow enough to give us more

time? WE DON’T KNOW!!!!

See Purkey, Sarah G., et al, A synoptic view of the

ventilation and circulation of Antarctic Bottom

Water(AABW) …Annual review of marine

science 2018.

We know that O2 to AABW comes from two types

of convection currents …

THC 101: What pushes oxygen rich

surface water into the deep ocean:

2 ways Heating raises

density below

crucial density (4C

fresh,0C salty).

Freezing raises

density of water

left behind (green

ice).

Good News for Antarctic FOR THE

MOMENT

Credit: valuewalk.com, reflects Shepherd, Andrew, et

al. "Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and

Mass." Geophysical Research Letters (2019)

Where radical melting

now happens, sudden

collapse

quite possible (sea level)

Ross Sea Polynya:

Main source of new

Oxygen to Pacific

Ocean Bottom Water

But in 40-100 years, Ward’s gut

might prove true if this continues…

Big new push in China.

Unlike biofuel,

clathrates 10-20 times

as much GHG per

energy, to atmosphere

or, worse, to ocean

euxinia direct (anoxia

in Pacific direct to

South China Sea).

We are in a race!!!! Image credit: Live Science

How Could We Reduce Climate

Risk?

All 3 popular strategies are grossly inefficient

– Expensive empty gestures. Let 1000 flowers bloom,

from $60/kwh rooftops (trillions of $) to >$100/ton CO2

storage.

– Brute force: EIA/EPA predicted Obama bill $200/ton by

2100 but still only 40% cut in US CO2, because cars did

not change much.

– Personal action in your life: DO use less gasoline but

other actions do not help much, try other actions.

The alternative: 5 point plan using better technology

and more efficient markets (Bush CCTP?)

What’s Important for CO2:

Data from DOE/EIA-0573 (2009)

(which also listed other GHG)

Total US CO2 emissions: 5426 million

tons (Table 7, page 22)

› 1854 direct CO2 from transportation

› 2160 direct from electric utilities

› 1412 all other places, including electricity

generation by industry and commercial

sectors

$200/ton (Obama bill) would mean>$1 trillion

per year fees just in US unless emissions fall

5 Point Plan To Reduce the Worst

Climate Risk 1.Sectoral Bill:

Cut net GHG in

Electricity Generation

2.Sectoral Bill:

Cut net GHG in

Cars and Trucks

3.Agriculture:

Recycle $20-$40/ton

CO2 fee to recycle CO2

From terra preta to happy cows

4. Geoengineering:

R&D for better

options from aerosols

to mirrors to..

5. New Basic R&D:

Ocean options,

Archaea, currents

1. How to Cut CO2 From Electric

Generation @ Low Cost* Opportunities for New Proven AI in Power Grids

Crucial Issues in Partner Technologies for Grid

– Cybersecurity and cyberblitzkrieg

– New technology for renewables

– New power electronics, motors, fuel flexibility

Power grids can lead development of more

sustainable “Internet of Things” (IOT)

IOT challenges in general

*www.werbos.com/E/GridIOT.pdf

“NSF is currently supporting research to develop a

‘4th generation intelligent grid’ that would use

intelligent sytem-wide optimization to allow up to

80% of electricity to come from renewable sources

and 80% of cars to be pluggable electric vehicles

(PEV) without compromising reliability , and at

minimum cost to the Nation (Werbos 2011).”

obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/

microsites/ostp/nstc-smart-grid-june2011.pdf

(or search on White House smart grid 2011)

16

IEEE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE AUGUST 2011

Also posted at www.Werbos.com/energy.htm

• US and EU are already above 10 cents per kwh. China is less, but heavily

subsidized, encountering shortages and price rises with coal (not

counting CO2).

• OECD/IEA: world uses 21 thousand terawatt hours per year (2011). At 10

cents per kwh, that is worth $2 trillion per year. With wind or solar

supplying all, that would double or more. (Storage needs, backup,

regulation.)

Breakthroughs in Power Towers

Offer <7¢/kwh 24/7 in Most Earth www.energy.gov/eere/solar/

generation-3-concentrating-

solar-power-systems-gen3-csp

Brayton Energy USA

-- breakthrough new engine

(NREL, Google)

-- Storage <$50/kwh

DEWA 3 of 4 phases built

Cost estimates pass scrutiny:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/

science/article/pii/

S1755008418300309

Energy, Volume 173, 15 April 2019

HEDGE RISK: 3¢/kwh PPAs based on

solar cells probably safe at 10 gigawatts,

but R&D can secure the path to $100

billion/year (i.e. be sure of <8¢/kwh).

Abengoa will bid its 12¢/kwh

technology with hope of lower:

– Power towers: little mirrors focus

on “eye in the sky+storage.

Unproven leadership

opportunity, solar orchards:

– Each “tree” stands on its own,

moving reflector points to small

Stirling engine. (Sandia/STM)

Proposed Start: 10 gigawatts on new

line as long as TXPJM 2¢/kwh

1gw2.8TWH/year. With (10¢-3¢-2¢)*28TWH,

$1.5 billion/year extra profit on $3b investment

MAIN POLICY NEED: “PICKENS BILL” TO ALLOW WIRES

CTG Already Invests in Renewables

in Brazil. Why Go to Chile?

Because cost per kwh is half as much when sun is

more than twice as strong, for any technology.

5¢/kwh + 2¢/kwh < 10¢/kwh, difference worth $30

billion on $100 billion. (Add 2¢ in Brazil anyway.)

Source:

SolarGIS

Review at Werbos, P.

(2014). Reviewing Space

Solar Power policy. Ad

Astra, 26(2).:

– NIAC Report: New

Design for 9¢/kwh if

launch costs down to

$500/kg-LEO

– DARPA XS-1

Technology could get us

to ≤$500/kg-LEO

2. How To Zero Out Net CO2 in Cars and

Trucks: Best Near-Term Hope*

Highest mpg

Hybrids Cut

Gas per Mile

By 50%

With GEM fuel-flexible cars,

biofuels might supply ¼

of present liquid fuel

demand trends

Plug-in Hybrids

with 10kwh batteries

get half their energy

from electricity

* Talk at Rayburn 2007, to support Bush Energy

Independence and Security Act. www.Werbos.com/oil.htm.

Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) : A Large-

Scale Opportunity Here and Now Hybrids cut liquid fuel use 50%

already. Plug-ins cut 50% of that.

– “Researchers have shown .. (PHEV)

offering.. electric range of 32 km

will yield… 50% reduction..” (IEEE

Spectrum, July/05). Shown in

working Prius.

Battery breakthroughs in China: from 10/07, 10kwh

batteries (larger than) cost $2,000. www.thunder-sky.com.

Thus an extra $2,000 per car can cut gas dependence in half.

Gives economic security in case of sudden gasoline cutoff.

Does not strain grid – actually strengthens it, if done right.

GEM Flexibly Fuel Vehicles (FFV)

One Tank To Hold Them All

G: Gasoline

E: Ethanol

M: Methanol

With an FFV, you choose each day which to buy.

At $100-200/car, a more open competition, level playing field,

better unleash the power of the free market.

GEM flexibility use of any corrosive fuel, adaptive engine

control.

What IS Methanol?

C H

H

H

H C H

H

H

O

H C H

H

H

O

H

C H H

Methane Natural Gas

Scarce as Oil

Needs Special

Tank Ethanol e.g From Corn

Drinkable

Methanol Good H Carrier

Can Be Bioliquid

Or From Coal, Gas

Nonfood biofuels could supply half our fuel

needs using old technology – if we stop

demanding purity in our ethanol/alcohol!

(Also, try a google on “forest industry” methanol.)

We need to give this guy permission to compete with Saudi Arabia and Iran

for the car fuel market! He doesn’t need a subsidy – only more freedom

and an open door! Just give him a chance, and within 15 years…

Fuel flexibility can be brought online very quickly, much faster than

hybrids merely doubling every year!

All major manufacturers which sell in US have sold such cars in Brazil!!

World’s First Mass Market PHEV

2nd half of 2008: BYD Motors F6DM

•20 kwh battery, 65 miles all-electric driving range

•Made in Shenzhen, China

•Follow-on in 2009: F3DM, 100 miles all-electric

•www.byd.com

China Government Plan China Daily, posted in chinaview 10/27/7

Wan Gang, new Minister of Science and Technology & “sea turtle”, strongly supports New Energy Vehicle Key Project of the National Hi-Tech R&D Program.

Zhen Zijian, Deputy Director:

“(this is) the priority for China’s auto industry, which is expected to

become the world’s largest in 10-15 years.”

Ouyang Minggao (Tsinghua):”.. an innovative union of private

companies, research bodies & universities.. along 3 paths – hybrid,

clean fuel and electric vehicles.” Also google Caijing magazine.

Chery says the A5 hybrid 4-door sedan will be $1,400-$2,900 higher

than conventional version which starts at $9,975.

What limits rate of deployment of

hybrids & plug-ins? Cost, cost, cost…

Hybrid Prius vs. regular Prius: cost penalty = $3000 (2006 data Car & Driver, Financial Times) about enough to pay off at $3-4/gallon without interest.

About $2000 of the $3000 is for small fast battery, currently nickel hydride less than 1kwh.

$1,000-$2,000 tax incentive per car, for the first million hybrids from each manufacturer, essential to speed of development, becoming cheaper, in US.

Outside the US, higher gas price bigger market now, but subsidized gasoline prices in China cheaper than US.

The view from Morgan-Stanley

“We see lithium-ion PHEVs today as akin to

MP3 players in 1998. They are likely to

revolutionize the automobile as we know it,

but it is still unclear who will develop the

equivalent of the iPOD.”

Projected battery costs: $4,025 for 7kwh (20

miles all-electric) , $5,585 for 14kwh (GM

Volt)

www.vvcars.com/pdf/PHEV_MorganStanley.pdf

March 11, 2008

What would accelerate plug-ins most?

Toyota response December 4, 2008:

– Permanent tax incentives (not just 4 years)

– Promote recharge posts everywhere (cuts fuel use in half

again, energy security, attracts consumer)

– Standards for recharge posts – quicker recharge,

compatability, eventually V2G

Dr. Abe, leads all of

Toyota hybrid, plug-in

& electric car

development

Me

Prof. Toshio Fukuda

3. $20-$40/ton to sequester CO2 In 2009, USDA testified in detail to US senate, but

great ideas did not make it to EPW/EPA bills.

Some experts like Lovelock and Amory Lovins say

that more CO2 sequestration in agriculture could

solve all our net GHG problem at this kind of cost.

Of course, we don’t know, but why not let a fair

market with USDA testing validation requirements

find out how far they can get with suitable CO2

price!?

Biochar, terra preta, solid waste of livestock, fish

food or cement and aggregate from CCR? TRY!!!

Saving ozone in stratosphere may be most urgent

need if H2S starts outgassing from ocean, but acid 1st.

4

5. New Directions for Research Deep ocean oxygen: how far are we from the risk?

– Update that Deep Arctic water map and rate estimate

– Use advanced AI to model “4D” time-series, with crrect

use of probabilities (see www.Werbos.com/Erdos.pdf)

– New data on “polynyas” bring O2 to deep water

“In aquaria”: map what chemical, temperature and

other critical factors allow propagation of H2S

producing archaea.

Model these factors, under multiple scenarios.

Model possible new type of Gulf Stream cutoff.

Needs to be more crossdisciplinary, international.