world-wide market at $100 billion solar for our nations energy independence stephen levy
TRANSCRIPT
World-Wide Market at $100 BillionSolar for our Nation’s Energy Independence
Stephen LevyStephen Levy
Solar can supplement base plants during sunny daytime
It can be integrated into new housing roofs
It can lower your energy bill It cannot replace base plants It’s power cannot be saved without
separate storage It is not a panacea
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Data from data collected at airport over 10 year period
Jan Mar June Sept Dec
Solar isolation averagedover 10 years
Variance X10
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4
years
50%50%
66%%
Efficiency 15%15%
Data from Piper Jaffray Estimates
Present Thinking
2.7 GW
Cheaper solar: This solar concentrator uses mirrors and lenses to focus light, reducing the amount of semiconductor material needed and cutting costs. The rectangular module is mounted with the same hardware as conventional flat solar panels. Credit: Soliant Energy, Inc. Patent Pending
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Thin Film PV Manufacturing Cost
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 5 10 15 20
% Efficiency of PV panel
Do
llar
s p
er w
att
$200/m2
$150/m2
$100/m2
$50/m2
a- Si, CdTeSi-film
CIS
goal
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Installing Ovonics Solar Ribbon
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04/10/23Created by Stephen Levy13
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For one factory World production
Panel Costs per Wp a-Si CdTe CIGS
Conversion efficiency 7% 11% 12%
Superstrate or substrate $ .071 $ .045 $ .041
Active layer
Depreciation & operations $ .065 $ .034 $ .038
Thin-film materials (75% util) $ .005 $ .023 $ .083
Packaging of panels $ .161 $ .103 $ .094
Manufacturer’s gross margin $ .300 $ .210 $ .260
Total Panel Price per Wp $ .60 $ .42 $ .52
Study of Potential Cost Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-Scale Manufacturing of PV Modules Ken Zweibel (Technical Monitor) authors Marvin S. Keshner of HP and Rajeewa (Rajiv) Arya of Arya International, Inc.
Sub-contract No. ADJ-3-33631-01, October 2004
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0.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Cost of solar PV Panels per watt
Inve
rter
co
st a
s %
So
lar
Pan
els
20.0
$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00
Present Inverter Cost per watt is $0.707According to the referenced paper*, the cost of the inverter should be $0.120 per watt
*Study of Potential Cost Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-Scale Manufacturing of PV Modules
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Assumptions: Retail kWh rates, 2% annual rate escalation, 6%cost of capital, 30y asset life, 33% installation cost subsidy
Ref: “DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF VERY-LARGE SCALE MANUFACTURING OFCIGS SOLAR CELLS AND RELATED PRODUCTS” J. R. Tuttle, T. Schuyler, E. Choi, and J. Freer, DayStar Technologies, Inc.,
Installation Cost ($/W)
Years toPayback
Present Value of Investment ($/W)
$5 16 $0.74
$4 12 $1.05
$3 9 $1.36
$2 6 $1.67
$1 3 $1.98
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Sun powers the photovoltaic modules
Power electronics control the power into the house and gases into the tanks
Water through the cells electrolyzes the water (18% efficiency demonstrated)
Hydrogen and oxygen collected and stored in tanks
At night, hydrogen and oxygen pass into the fuel cell reforming the water, creating electric power and heat
Shortages can be supplied by the electric utility
Solar roof
Oxygen Hydrogen
waterFuel Cell
Electronics
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Oxygen Hydrogen
water
Electronics
Fuel Cell
Recharge car overnight
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200 all-electric cars in a employee parking lot could supply 100 avg. homes with electricity for 3 days
Electric Utility
Scenario 1 - status quo which is buying off shore Cost $8,000. Per home*
• 10,000,000 homes would be $80 Billion• $60 Billion would go offshore
Scenario 2 - success at home Cost $6,000. Per home**
• 10,000,000 homes cost $60 Billion• funds remain here; we export
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Assumption: Energy Costs Rise, PV Becomes Attractive
Installing a 6 kW system* based on purchase price of $6,000. plus $2,000. for transportation, resellers** based on purchase price of $6,000
o Suntech Power has begun construction on a thin film R&D andSuntech Power has begun construction on a thin film R&D and manufacturing facility in Caohejing Hi-tech Park in Shanghai, manufacturing facility in Caohejing Hi-tech Park in Shanghai,
China. China.
oThe first phase of the new plant is expected to begin operation in The first phase of the new plant is expected to begin operation in 2008 reaching 50MW of thin film solar cell production capacity in 2008 reaching 50MW of thin film solar cell production capacity in 2009. 2009.
oSuntech currently projects a solar conversion efficiency of 6% to Suntech currently projects a solar conversion efficiency of 6% to 9% and an initial production cost of $1.20 per watt (based on 6% 9% and an initial production cost of $1.20 per watt (based on 6% solar conversion efficiency. solar conversion efficiency.
oThin film modules will be nearly 6 square meters in size.Thin film modules will be nearly 6 square meters in size.
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QUARTZ
A major ingredient of the Spruce Pine rock is quartz. Through the years, quartz was always discarded as waste. Now it is recovered through froth flotation.
Comprising about 25% of the rock, the quartz has now become one of the most strategic minerals of the entire world. Because of its extreme purity, it is used in several critical process steps during the manufacture of computer semiconductors (chips). At present, no other quartz in the world can match the processed quartz purity from the Spruce Pine District.
EVERY computer chip in the world uses Spruce Pine quartz in its manufacturing process.