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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey
World Uranium Resources, Supply and Demand
Prepared for: Energy from the Earth A Congressional Briefing Series March 11, 2014
Susan Hall U.S. Geological Survey Denver, CO
Uranium Supply and Demand
Uranium fundamentals Current supply and demand Major challenges to uranium production Future (potential) supply
Undiscovered resources Unconventional resources
Uranium supply fundamentals
Primary Supply – Mined uranium
Uranium mined as a primary product, co-product or important byproduct Tabulated as identified reasonably assured resources (RAR – roughly comparable to reserves)
or potential (undiscovered) resources
Secondary Supply - Stocks and inventories of previously mined uranium in various forms (no reliable estimates of the volume of secondary supplies worldwide)
Military Megatons to Megawatts program - 20-year Russian- U.S. agreement converting weapons grade highly
enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) that can be used in nuclear power plants Produced 24 million pounds U3O8 (9,200 tU) LEU each year Ended in 2013 – uranium from about 20,000 nuclear warheads was converted into about 10% of U.S.
electricity supply during the 20 years of the program
Processing Tails Re-enriched tails Tails are the product of the uranium enrichment process Estimated 1.2 billion pounds U3O8 - 7 yrs. Of consumption at 2013 levels of demand
Reprocessed from Spent Reactor Fuel MOX (Mixed oxide) and (RepU) reprocessed uranium Uranium and Plutonium recovered from spent fuel by reprocessing Widely used in Europe , 21 reactors in France, 28 worldwide licensed to use MOX– beginning to be
considered in the U.S.
World Uranium Supply/Demand
434 Operable Reactors (includes 48 in Japan currently offline), 100 in the U.S.
Provides about 11% of electricity worldwide, 19% in the U.S. (2012 figures)
71 under construction: China - 28, Russia – 10, India – 6, S. Korea – 5, U.S. – 5, Slovakia, Pakistan, UAE – 2 each, Finland, France, Brazil, Argentina, Brazil – 1 each
173 planned (estimated 8-10 years until in operation) mostly in China, India and Russia
World: 2012 Demand
176 million pounds U3O8 (67,990 tU) 2012 Production
151 million pounds U3O8 (58,394 tU) U.S.: 2012 U.S. Demand
51 million pounds U3O8 (19,724 tU) 2012 U.S. Production
4.1 million pounds U3O8 (1,596 tU)
NEA/OECD-NEA 2011 Resources Production and Demand World Nuclear Association, 2014
Global Supply/Demand Projection to 2030 World Nuclear Association
Upper Supply Scenario: Market is satisfied by rising supply to 2025, new mines are needed thereafter.
Lower Supply Scenario: Lower demand projection covered until 2030; reference and upper case projections are not covered by existing supply.
tU
tU
World Nuclear Association, 2011, The global nuclear fuel market, supply and demand, 2011-2030
Uranium supply World U supply
World Nuclear Association, 2014,
UxConsulting uranium Suppliers Annual, 2013,
Uranium Supply - Security of Supply Global distribution of identified resources - 2011
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
Australia
United States
Kazakhstan
Canada
Niger
South Africa
Russian FederaBon
Brazil
Namibia
Ukraine
China RAR of Uranium (tU) in IAEA Cost Categories
<USD 40/kg U
USD 40-‐80 /kg U
USD 80-‐130 /kg U
130-‐260USD 260/kg U
< $ 15 /pound U3O8
$ 15-‐30 /pound U3O8
$ 30-‐50 /pound U3O8
$50-‐80 /pound U3O8
Uranium RAR mineable for < $50/pound U3O8 ( < $130/kg U)
NEA/OECD-NEA 2011 Resources Production and Demand World Nuclear Association, 2014
Uranium Supply Vulnerabilities of supply Top 10 mines produced 54% of world U supply in 2012
Mine Country Main owner Type Production (million lbs. U3O8)
% of world U supply
McArthur River Canada Cameco Underground 19.5 13%
Muyumkum/Tortkuduk Kazakhstahn Katco JV/Areva In-Situ Recovery 9.6 6%
Olympic Dam Australia BHP Billiton By-product/ underground 8.9 6%
Arlit Niger Somair/ Areva Open pit 8.0 5%
Ranger Australia ERA (Rio Tinto 68%) Open pit 8.2 4%
Rossing Namibia Rio Tinto (69%) Open pit 6.0 4%
Budenovskoye 2 Kazakhstan Karatau JV/
Kazatomprom-Uranium One
In-Situ Recovery 5.6 3%
Priargunsky Russia ARMZ/ Uranium One Underground 5.2 3%
Langer Heinrich Namibia Paladin Energy Surface 5.1 3%
South Inkai Kazakhstan Betpak Dala JV/ Uranium One
In-Situ Recovery 4.9 3%
Top 10 total 54% World Nuclear Association, 2014,
UxConsulting Uranium Suppliers Annual, 2013
Accessibility to Resources Are resources accessible?
Two largest U.S. deposits - Mt. Taylor, in NM and Coles Hill, VA - are not easily accessible.
Coles Hill, VA (118 million lbs. U3O8) - state moratorium on uranium mining
Mt Taylor, NM (> 100 million lbs. U3O8) - Traditional Cultural Property
Accessibility is a global concern New U.N. classification system, requires not
only economic and geologic certitude, but socio-economic viability of a resource
The new classification system is under review by IAEA and OECD member countries
Mapping of resources from the current to the new U.N. classification system will be included in the 2013 “Redbook”
NEA/OECD-NEA 2012 Kyle and Beahm, 2013 Rio Grande Resources, 2014 UNECE, 2010
Uranium Supply Challenges to production Long lag time from discovery to production
Vance, 2005
15-20 years from discovery to production
Uranium Supply Challenges to Production Increasing costs to discover and extract uranium
< $80/kgU = $30/lb U3O8 < $130/kgU = $50/lb U3O8 < $260/kgU = $100/lb U3O8
World Nuclear Association, 2014
Uranium Supply Challenges to production Lower uranium price
Mines on standby status: 2/7/2014 – Kayelekera mine in Malawi placed on care and maintenance 2013-14 – Energy Fuels Inc. placed all U.S. mines on standby
Delayed projects: Areva delayed development of the Trekkopje mine in Namibia (projected to produce 5
million pounds of U3O8 by 2020), Bakouma in the Central African Republic, Imouraren in Niger (also security issues) and Ryst Kuil mine in S. Africa
BHP Billiton expansion of the Olympic Dam deposit in Australia will not proceed (production was expected in 2028 so only longer term projections are affected). Olympic Dam was to have brought about 50 million pounds of U3O8/year to the market by 2020
Cameco is cutting back global expansion plans – 2018 target now 36 rather than 40 million pounds of U3O8
Cameco will not develop Kintire (Proterozoic unconformity related) project in Australia (Jan, 2013)
2012 – slowed expansion of Langer Heinrich in Namibia (Paladin Resources) Rio Tinto is cutting the workforce at Rossing Mine in Namibia by 17% (March, 2013)
Short term: low prices are expected to persist as inventories remain high; as a result, more projects will likely be delayed or deferred, and less profitable mines placed on standby
UxConsulting, 2011 BHP-Billiton Ltd., 2012
Energy Fuels Inc., 2013
Long term potential uranium supply Undiscovered Resources
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
United States
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Russian FederaBon
Canada
South Africa
India
Bulgaria
Uzbekistan
Indonesia
Ukraine
Zambia
Mongolia
Peru
Jordan
Prognos7cated Resources (in 1000 tU)
tU in the cost range < USD 80/kgU tU in the cost range < USD 130/kgU tU in the cost range < USD 260/kgU
< $80/kgU = $30/lb. U3O8 < $130/kgU = $50/lb. U3O8 < $260/kgU = $100/lb. U3O8
<$ 80/kgU <$ 130/kgU <$ 260/kgU
NEA/OECD-NEA 2012
Long term potential uranium supply Undiscovered Resources
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Mongolia
United States
South Africa
Russian FederaBon
Canada
Brazil
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Vietnam
Colombia
Czech Republic
Venezuela
Germany
Niger
Specula7ve Resources (in 1000 tU)
tU in cost range < USD 130/kgU tU in cost range < USD 260/kgU tU Cost range unassigned
< $80/kgU = $30/lb. U3O8 < $130/kgU = $50/lb. U3O8 < $260/kgU = $100/lb. U3O8
<$ 130/kgU <$ 260/kgU
NEA/OECD-NEA 2012
Domestic Uranium Supply U.S. Uranium Reserves ~10 years of U.S. Supply (2013 demand)
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Wyoming New Mexico Arizona,
Colorado, Utah
Texas Other
Mill
ion
Poun
ds U
3O8
Wyoming New Mexico Arizona,
Colorado, Utah
Texas Other
$50/pound U3O8 Forward Cost Category (Million Pounds) 220 179 63 27 50
$100/pound U3O8 Cost Category (Million Pounds) 446 390 198 40 154
U.S. Energy Information Administration Estimates of Uranium Reserves by State, Year-End 2008
EIA, 2010
Domestic Uranium Supply U.S. Uranium Mines - 2014
ISR: Crow Butte, NE (Cameco) Smith Ranch/Highland, WY (Cameco) North Butte, WY (Cameco) La Palangana, TX (Uranium Energy Corporation) Alta Mesa, TX (Mestena Uranium) Willow Creek, WY (ARMZ/Uranium One) Lost Creek, WY (ISR – UR Energy)
Conventional: All permitted mines on standby White Mesa Mill will discontinue production in August, 2014
Close to production: Nichols Ranch/Hank, WY (ISR- Uranerz) under construction Goliad, TX (ISR - Uranium Energy Corporation) under construction
Domestic Uranium Supply Long term potential uranium supply Undiscovered Resource Assessments Last full U.S. assessment of undiscovered resources completed in 1980 USGS started re-assessing domestic undiscovered U resources in 2013 Assessments of resources that will impact the total uranium endowment of
the U.S. are being prioritized Land use and energy policy support
Uranium Resources of the United States Es7mated by the Na7onal Uranium Resource Evalua7on Program
Million Pounds U3O8 Forward-‐cost category Probability distribu7on values
Mean 95th percen7le 5th percen7le
$30/pound U3O8
Reserves 1,419 1,247 1,604
Undiscovered Resources Probable 1,947 1,450 2,554
Possible 761 427 1,166
Specula7ve 684 341 1,320
$50/pound U3O8 -‐ -‐ -‐
Reserves 2,059 1,806 2,332
Undiscovered Resources Probable 3,137 2,424 3,964
Possible 1,410 761 2,141
Specula7ve 1,060 552 1,958
$100/pound U3O8 -‐ -‐ -‐
Reserves 2,468 2,136 2,840
Undiscovered Resources Probable 4,576 3,621 5,661
Possible 2,211 1,146 3,357
Specula7ve 1,531 832 2,695 DOE, 1980
Long term potential uranium supply Top priority USGS undiscovered resource assessments
Metasomatic/SE Shear Zone deposits Coles Hill, VA largest
undeveloped uranium deposit in the U.S. with reported RAR of more than 100 million pounds of U3O8
Resource potential not previously assessed
Large international endowment, 4th most prolific class of deposit.
Could have a significant impact the U.S. resource endowment
IAEA, 2010
Long term potential uranium supply Top priority USGS undiscovered resource assessments
Calcrete Uranium Large deposits in
Australia and Namibia 900 million pounds
U3O8 in resources (351,000 tU) worldwide
Relationship between latitude & uranium provinces
Fairly well understood deposit controls
Why none in the U.S.?
Cuney and Kyser, 2009 NEA/OECD-NEA 2012
Long term potential uranium supply Top priority USGS undiscovered resource assessments
Unconformity Type U deposits Large international
endowment, none recognized in the U.S.
Deposit controls now fairly well understood
Not well understood during last domestic assessment so not assessed
Long term potential uranium supply Top priority USGS undiscovered resource assessments
Phosphate Byproduct uranium potential Phosphate is mined for
fertilizer In the U.S. averages
100-130 ppm U This U is currently not recovered
Rough estimates indicate that there are ~ 2 billion pounds U3O8 (765,000 tU) possible resources in phosphates located in Florida & Idaho
200 billion pounds U3O8 (7.9 billion tU) worldwide
IAEA, 2010 OECD-NEA/IAEA 2012
Long term potential uranium supply Top priority USGS undiscovered resource assessments
Sandstone-hosted deposits (Roll-front, Tabular and Basal Channel) Largest existing resource is
being actively mined Not a high priority assessment
because deposit controls were thoroughly studied in earlier assessments
Proof of concept assessment underway in the TX Gulf Coast region to see if estimation techniques used now are more predictive than in the last domestic assessment
May reassess sandstone deposits based on outcome of TX proof-of-concept study
Long term potential uranium supply – Unconventional Uranium from seawater
Research carried out from 1950s – 1980s
Last published economic study by Japan
Not economic to extract Direct costs of extraction are $ 55 to $ 330 per pound
of U3O8 plus capital costs of 1 billion $ for a 3 million pound U3O8 /year plant
Notwithstanding these obstacles, the U.S. Department of Energy began evaluating Japanese research, and funding additional research in 2011
Other issues: braid replacement, maritime legal constraints, disposal of significant quantity of absorbent material
NEA/OECD-NEA 2012 Tamada, 2006, 2009
Alternatives to uranium - Thorium reactors
Thorium (Th) can be used as a nuclear fuel Past research on Th reactors has been carried out by Germany, UK,
Canada, U.S., India. Current research in India, China, Canada, Norway. No commercial reactor in currently operating Because of low demand – Th has not been a primary exploration target Th resources in the U.S. are likely to be obtained as a byproduct of rare
earth element (REE) mining 3 REE deposits in the U.S. have been identified as containing
significant Th within the REE deposit; Mountain Pass, CA; Bear Lodge project, WY; Bokan Mountain, AK
Adequate domestic supplies of Th are thought to exist for potential requirements under under current build-out scenarios for Th-based reactors
NEA/OECD-NEA 2012 VanGosen, 2014
For more information:
Susan Hall U.S. Geological Survey Box 25046, MS 939 Denver Colorado 80225 USA [email protected] 303-236-1656