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3Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Growth measures

Regions

World economy (GDP) %Airline traffic (RPK) %Cargo traffic (RTK) %Airplane fleet %

Market sizeDeliveriesMarket value ($B)Average value ($M)Unit share %Value share %

New airplane deliveriesLargeTwin aisleSingle aisleRegional jetsTotal

Market value (2010 $B, catalog prices)LargeTwin aisleSingle aisleRegional jetsTotal

2010 fleetLargeTwin aisleSingle aisleRegional jetsTotal

2030 fleetLargeTwin aisleSingle aisleRegional jetsTotal

World

3.35.15.63.6

33,5004,060

120100100

8207,330

23,3701,980

33,500

2701,7701,950

704,060

7703,640

12,1002,900

19,410

1,1408,570

27,7502,070

39,530

Africa

4.45.15.22.9

800100130

22

10230510

50800

26040

2100

10140420110680

10320790

901,210

CIS

3.44.35.41.0

1,080110100

33

40200680160

1,080

10306010

110

50200630260

1,140

50250930170

1,400

LatinAmerica

4.26.96.15.6

2,570250100

86

10360

2,14060

2,570

390

1602

250

10140900100

1,150

10410

2,820150

3,390

MiddleEast

4.16.66.24.9

2,520450180

811

1801,1101,160

702,520

60280100

10450

70440480

501,040

2001,1201,310

802,710

Europe

2.04.34.73.1

7,550880120

2322

1801,4005,660

3107,550

60330480

10880

180670

3,090440

4,380

2201,5605,920

3108,010

NorthAmerica

2.72.94.81.7

7,530760100

2219

501,1105,540

8307,530

20270440

30760

1101,0003,7201,7806,610

1401,6306,800

7609,330

AsiaPacific

4.76.76.35.7

11,4501,510

1303437

3502,9207,680

50011,450

120710670

101,510

3401,0502,860

1604,410

5103,2809,180

51013,480

Market values above 5 have been rounded to the nearest 10.

2010 to 2030

World regionsKey indicators and new airplane markets

World regionsMarket value: $4,060 billion

• Large • Twin aisle • Single aisle • Regional jets

Delivery units

6%2%

22%

70%

2011 to 2030New airplanes

33,500

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes39,530

2010Airplanes

19,410

World regionsMarket growth rates

Number ofpassengers

Airline traffic(RPK)

Cargo traffic(RTK)

World economy(GDP)

Airplanefleet

5.6%

5.1%

4.2%

3.6%

3.3%

Outlook on a Page

4 Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

New ValueSize airplanes ($B)

Large 820 270

Twin 7,330 1,770aisle

Single 23,370 1,950aisle

Regional 1,980 70jets

Total 33,500 4,060

Size 2010 2030

Large 770 1,140

Twin 3,640 8,570aisle

Single 12,100 27,750aisle

Regional 2,900 2,070jets

Total 19,410 39,530

Airplanes in service2010 and 2030

Demand by size2011 to 2030

New ValueRegion airplanes ($B)

Asia Pacific 11,450 1,510

Europe 7,550 880

North America 7,530 760

Latin America 2,570 250

Middle East 2,520 450

CIS* 1,080 110

Africa 800 100

Total 33,500 4,060

*Commonwealth of Independent States.

Key indicators2010 to 2030

Demand by region2011 to 2030

Growth measures

World economy 3.3%Gross domestic product (GDP)

Airplane fleet 3.6%

Number of 4.2%passengers

Airline traffic 5.1%Revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK)

Cargo traffic 5.6%Revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK)

UPDATED!

Randy Tinseth

introduces

the Asia Pacific

sub regions

Current Market Outlook2011–2030

Long-Term Market—Overview

Air travel market recoveringPassenger air traffic rose 8 percent in 2010, after declining about 2 percent in 2009. The persistent resilience of air travel is expected to sustain 6 percent growth in 2011 and keep the growth rate at or above the historical trend through the middle of the decade.

Although volatile fuel costs, political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, and unresolved government debt in many industrialized economies create risk of a renewed downturn, commercial aviation has weathered such shocks to the system in the past. Recovery has followed each event as the industry reliably returned to its long-term growth rate of approximately 5 percent per year. We see that same resilience come into play as airlines have skillfully managed capacity to maintain profitability in face of the variety of challenges that have beset the industry as the world economy emerges from the global recession.

Purpose of the forecastThe Current Market Outlook is our long-term forecast of air traffic volumes and airplane demand. Each year’s forecast starts from a blank computer screen, so we can factor the current business conditions and developments into our analysis of the long-term drivers of air travel.

The forecast details demand for passenger and freighter airplanes, both for fleet growth and for replacement of airplanes that retire during the forecast period.

We have shared the forecast with the public since 1964 to help airlines, suppliers, and the financial community make informed decisions.

The shape of the marketThe long-range forecast for 2011 anticipates delivery of 33,500 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at more than $4.0 trillion. Looking back at our forecasts over the past 10 years reveals that our projections for long-term market growth tend to be conservative, compared to actual industry performance.

We have been admirably accurate, however, on the crucial forecast of the market share that each airplane size category will capture. Single-aisle airplanes account for the majority of deliveries over the next 20 years—70 percent of the airplanes and 48 percent of the value. Rapidly expanding air service within China and other emerging economies and the spread of low-cost carrier (LCC) business models throughout the world drive this market segment. The twin-aisle market, which includes efficient long-range airplanes such as the Boeing 787 and 777, is the fastest growing segment of the market, accounting for 22 percent of the delivery units and 43 percent of the delivery dollars. High fuel costs are compelling airlines to accelerate replacement of older airplanes. In addition, the increased capabilities of the latest long-range, twin-aisle airplanes create opportunities for operators to take advantage of the ongoing liberalization of air transport markets to open new nonstop routes.


Near-term environmentRecent data suggests that the global economy continues to recover, though as expected, the pace of growth has moderated compared to the strong rebound in late 2010. Emerging economies, led by China, outpace the average world GDP growth, while the established economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan are expanding at a more modest rate. High oil prices and price volatility resulting from the political unrest in the Middle East pose the primary threats to continued recovery.

Passenger traffic reboundMirroring the economic recovery, passenger traffic will be buoyed by growing demand in emerging markets and bolstered by low-cost carriers. These drivers will help keep worldwide demand for air transport at or above the historical 5 percent growth trend, as the effects of recent shocks subside in the second half of 2011.

Air cargo recoveryAir cargo traffic surged to recover prior peak volumes more quickly than expected in 2010. Growth in air cargo will retreat toward the long-term trend in 2011 as moderating economic growth, rising fuel prices, and supply chain disruptions from the Japan earthquake work affect the industry.

Airline profitability revivesAirlines are managing capacity to maintain yields and profitability in the face of challenging external events, including the political upheaval in the Middle East, the earthquake in Japan, and the continued volatility of fuel cost. Although global airline profitability is expected to decline from last year’s record levels, it will remain positive—despite the more than 30 percent jump in fuel prices compared to last year. Currently, airlines are projected to earn US$4 billion in net profits in 2011, compared to US$18 billion earned in 2010. Airlines in Asia are forecast to be the most profitable, driven by growing demand within the region. North American airlines will follow closely, boosted by capacity discipline in the US domestic market.

2010 to 2030

Market developmentsGrowth rates

Number ofpassengers

Airline traffic(RPK)

Cargo traffic(RTK)

World economy(GDP)

Airplanefleet

5.6%

5.1%

4.2%

3.6%

3.3%

2010 to 2030

AfricaLatin

AmericaMiddleEast

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

Europe

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

6.4%

4.6%

6.4%

5.1%

8.1%

6.0%

Market developmentsAirline traffic growth rates

5.4%

4.8%

–

5.7%

6.8%

7.3%

5.4%

5.0%

7.2%

3.6%

4.0%

5.9%

EuropeNorth

America

2.3%

5.1% 7.0%

AsiaPacific

Market developmentsWorld air travel since 1990

RPKsin trillions

RPK growth ratein percent

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

2010

*

Trend

7 -3 5 1 8 7 8 6 2 7 9 -2 0 1 15 8 7 7 2 -2 8

*2010 estimate.

Source:ICAO,

Scheduled Traffic

Market Developments


Forecast summaryAnnual traffic growth

Forecast summaryMarket share by business model

• Within Asia Pacific

• Within Asia Pacific excluding China

• Within North America

• Within Europe

• Within China

• Europe to Asia Pacific

• North Atlantic

• Middle East to Asia Pacific

• Transpacific

• Within Latin America

• North America to Latin America

• Europe to Latin America

• Within and to CIS

• Africa to Europe

• Within Asia Pacific

• Within Asia Pacific excluding China

• Within North America

• Within Europe

• Within China

• Europe to Asia Pacific

• North Atlantic

• Middle East to Asia Pacific

• Transpacific

• Within Latin America

• North America to Latin America

• Europe to Latin America

• Within and to CIS

• Africa to Europe

Forecast summaryPassenger traffic development

RPKsin trillions

7.0%6.8%2.3%4.0%7.5%5.9%3.6%7.2%5.1%6.7%5.4%4.8%4.2%4.6%

2010 to 2030

2010 to 2030Growth

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

• Freight

• Charter and inclusive tour

• Low cost

• Intermediate network

• Broad network

New airplanes 33,500

2%1%

49% 22%

26%

Forecast Summary

New business models, emerging economies support airplane demandWorldwide economic activity is the most powerful driver of growth in commercial air transport and the resulting demand for airplanes. The global gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at an average of 3.3 percent per year for the next 20 years. Reflecting this economic growth, worldwide passenger traffic will average 5.1 percent growth and cargo traffic will average 5.6 percent growth over the forecast period.

To meet this increased demand for air transportation, the number of airplanes in the worldwide fleet will grow at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, nearly doubling from around 19,400 airplanes today to more than 39,500 airplanes in 2030. Airplane deliveries, for fleet growth and replacement of aging airplanes, will total 33,500 over the next 20 years, with a value of US$4.0 trillion.

Low-cost carriers expanding across all regionsCommercial aviation continues to change in response to market opportunities and challenges. New airline business models and the dynamic growth of air travel in emerging economies throughout the world are diversifying the demand for airplanes. As global air travel declined in 2009, there were still many markets and business models that experienced growth. Over the next 20 years, 78 percent of demand for new airplanes will come from outside North America, with about 34 percent of deliveries going to the Asia Pacific region. The low-cost carrier (LCC) model continues to expand across all regions, with LCC fleets expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7 percent.

The Boeing forecast continues to predict that the greatest demand for new aircraft, by country, will come from the United States, followed by China. Remarkably, the United Arab Emirates, with a population of less than 9 million people, yet home to several highly competitive airlines, will be the third largest market by value.


MethodologyRPK growth trends GDP

Source:ICAO

MethodologyLiberalization stimulates demand

Methodology2011 traffic outlook

• World GDP Gross domestic product

• World RPKs Revenue passenger-kilometers

15

GDPPercent change

RPKsPercent change

7.5

105

52.5

00

-5-2.52000 2010199019801970

EXPLORE!

The methodology

behind the 2011

traffic outlook

40

30

20

10

02025 2030202020152010

• Available seat-mile (ASM)

GrowthPercent of ASMs

Methodology

Practical valueBoeing uses the long-term forecast contained in the Current Market Outlook to guide product strategy and to develop long-term business planning. We have shared this information with the public since 1964 to help airlines, suppliers, and financiers make informed business decisions.

Cyclicality in air travel demandGlobal and regional economic cycles profoundly affect air travel demand, so it is essential to take the current phase of the economic cycle into account in developing the long-term forecast. When consumer confidence and business confidence fall, as they did during the recession that began in 2008, air travel demand follows suit. But historically, air travel has proved resilient. Perturbations from the long-term trend are typically relatively short lived, lasting about a year. As confidence rises, air travel often surges, surpassing historical average growth rates to return to the long-term trend. Adjusting for the cycle is part of the forecast process.

The air travel demand forecast processThe air travel demand forecast is developed by constructing and matching both a top-down and a bottom-up approach. Traffic between individual countries is forecast based on economic predictions, growth momentum, historical trends, and projections of the relative openness of bilateral air services and domestic regulation. Government statistics on inbound and outbound tourism receipts help to identify and cross-check trends. We also factor in the potential positive or negative effects of specific developments peculiar to each region, such as population dynamics, shifts toward or away from other modes of transport, including high-speed rail, and emergence of new direct air services between countries.

The individual countries are grouped into 11 geographical regions that generate 63 air traffic flows between and within the regions. Next we reconcile the “bottom-up” projection, which is constructed from country-level economic, demographic, air transport, and travel data, with the “top-down” projection, which is obtained by dividing top-level global data into the same regional flows, allowing for shifts in shares between regions. The regional traffic forecasts are then used to help develop the airplane demand forecast.


MethodologyAir Service Agreement

Source:World Economic Forum

Travel & Tourism Report 2009

MethodologyWorld airline revenues

RevenuesPercent of GDP

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.602000

Source:Airline Business Top 150

ICAO, Global Insight nominal GDP

Indexrelative openess of Air Service Agreement

25

20

15

10

5

0

Ken

ya

Chi

na

Rus

sia

Ind

ia

Vie

tnam

Sp

ain

Aus

tral

ia

Fran

ce

Sou

th A

frica

Qat

ar

UA

E

UK

Bra

zil

Sin

gap

ore

Hon

g K

ong

Mex

ico

Japa

n

Ger

man

y

Can

ada

US

A

20071997 2003

• World GDP (gross domestic product)

MethodologyDrivers of air travel

60%-80% 20%-40%

Traveldemand

Additionaltravel demand

Economicgrowth

Globaltrade

Valueof service

Safe,efficient,

competitiveindustry

Fuel Capability

Environment Infrastructure

Airlinestrategies

Emergingmarkets

Marketevolution

Marketliberalization

Methodology—continued

Drivers of air travelGrowth in air travel, measured in revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), has historically outpaced economic growth, represented by GDP, by approximately 1.5 to 2.0 percent. This leads us to conclude that about 60 to 80 percent of air travel growth can be attributed to economic growth, which in turn is driven, in part, by international trade. This is consistent with the observation that countries whose economies are tied to trade tend to have higher rates of air travel. Air travel revenues consistently total about 1 percent of GDP in countries around the world, regardless of the size of the national economy. Globally, air travel has historically trended toward this consistent share of GDP, such that countries that are below or above this level will generally move toward it over the long term.

The remaining 20 to 40 percent of air travel growth results from the stimulation provided by the value travelers place on the speed and convenience that only air travel can offer. For example, travelers value choice of arrival and departure times, routings, nonstop flights, choice of carriers, service class, and fares. Liberalization is the primary driver enabling value creation in the global air transport network. Liberalization typically gives rise to a “bump” in traffic demand. Studies suggest that as the relative openness of a country’s bilateral air service rises from the 20th percentile to the 70th, the resulting increase in traffic can boost air travel demand by an additional 30 percent.

Often, economic growth, induced directly and indirectly by improved air services, creates a virtuous circle that leads to further air transport growth, which in turn leads to added economic growth, and so on.

The percentage of air transport growth that comes from economic development compared to the percentage that comes from the value of air travel services is an indicator of the maturity of an air travel market. Although individual regions may exhibit signs of slowing due to maturing markets, other regions continue to grow vigorously. Current global percentages do not indicate that the market is nearing maturity in aggregate.


Fleet developments20 years in the future

Fleet developmentsOver half of new deliveries are for growth

Fleet developmentsWorld fleet will double by 2030

100%

Share of fleet

2030Airplane fleet

39,530

75%

50%

25%

0%

85%New airplanes

Better for:• Environment• Passengers• Airlines

15%Remaining airplanes

2020

3%20% 8%

69%

2010

28,580 airplanes

19,410airplanes

4%19% 15%

62%

2030

39,530airplanes

3%22% 5%

70%

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Delivery units

33,500

2010Airplanes

19,410

2030Airplanes

39,530


• Fleet growth • Fleet replacement • Fleet retained

20,120 – 60%

6,030

13,380 – 40%

Fleet Developments

Fleet size will doubleBoeing forecasts that the fleet will grow from about 19,400 planes in 2010 to more than 39,500 by 2030. The need to replace older, less efficient airplanes will account for 40 percent of the projected market for new airplanes. The 2011 forecast anticipates 13,360 airplanes will be replaced over the next 20 years. This reflects rising fuel prices and the increasing economic burden of using older, less capable, and less efficient airplanes. At this replacement rate, 85 percent of the fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011.

Surging demand for single-aisle aircraftToday, there are 12,100 single-aisle airplanes in operation around the world, representing 62 percent of the total jet fleet. The single-aisle fleet is forecast to more than double, reaching 27,750 airplanes or 70 percent of the total fleet by 2030, largely reflecting the rapid expansion of air services in Asia, the rise of intraregional air travel in emerging economies, and the growth and geographic expansion of the low-cost-carrier model.

The fastest growing market will be for twin-aisle airplanes. This segment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent. The twin-aisle fleet will grow from 3,640 airplanes in operation today to 8,570 airplanes in 2030. In 20 years, much of the in-service fleet will be newer aircraft, such as the Boeing 787 and 777, which offer more passenger comfort, improved efficiency, and better environmental performance than the airplanes they replace.

There is expected to be modest growth in the large aircraft fleet over the long term. The number of large airplanes in the fleet will grow from about 770 today to 1,140 in 2030. Nearly all the gain in large aircraft is coming from the freighter market. The number of large passenger airplanes in operation today is around 450. The large airplane passenger fleet will remain at approximately that level over the long term.

Modest upgaugingThe average seat count of airplanes in the fleet will verge upward incrementally as fuel and operating cost pressures encourage airlines to go to larger seat counts within all airplane size categories. In particular, due to better economics, small regional jets will be replaced with larger regional jets and small single-aisle airplanes on short-haul routes. Introduction of the 787 and, eventually, the A350 will spur airlines to trade up as airplanes in the 767 and A330 size category begin to reach retirement age. Within the large airplane segment, airlines will look to upgauge from the 747-400 to the 747-8 or A380.


Strong demand for single-aisle airplanesThe short- to medium-haul market has been the fastest growing segment of the commercial aviation industry over the past decade, creating a strong demand for single-aisle airplanes. In 2010, 830 new single-aisle airplanes were delivered—the second-largest quantity in a single year. The expansion of low-cost carriers, growth in intra-China flights, and a substantial need for replacement aircraft will keep the demand for single-aisle airplanes strong into the future.

Among the 33,500 airplanes to be delivered over the next 20 years, 23,370 will be single-aisle airplanes. (This is 70 percent of the total number of aircraft, and 48 percent by value.) In addition to growth in this sector of the industry, the demand for new single-aisle airplanes is due to a need to replace older aircraft, such as 737 Classics, early A320s, and MD-80s/90s. It is expected that there will be a wave of single-aisle retirements starting around 2016 as a number of airplanes become 25 years old—a typical retirement age for jet aircraft.

New airplanes drive twin-aisle demandThe imminent introduction of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and later of the Airbus A350, is driving the resurgent demand for twin-aisle airplanes, as these new airplanes offer significant efficiency improvements over the aircraft they are replacing. Over the next 20 years, 7,330 new twin-aisle deliveries are expected. This represents 22 percent of total deliveries, or 43 percent of total market value. About 40 percent of the demand for twin aisles will come from the Asia Pacific region. Increasing liberalization and the region’s vast geography will promote the opening of new air routes between a growing number of origins and destinations.

Asia leads demand for large airplanesApproximately 43 percent of large airplane deliveries over the next 20 years are expected to go to Asia, with China and Southeast Asia accounting for most of the delivery demand. The Middle East, with its already substantial backlog of aircraft in this category, accounts for another 22 percent of the large airplane market. The 820 new large airplanes (such as the 747-8 Intercontinental and the A380) forecast to be delivered worldwide represent only 2 percent of total airplane deliveries. Yet with a value of US$270 billion, large airplanes account for 7 percent of the total market value. Nearly half of those airplanes are already on order. A substantial portion of large airplane demand is for freighters, due to their efficiency in serving this market.

2010 to 2030

New airplanesBoeing order backlog: $260B

New airplanesMarket value: $4.0 trillion

Delivery units

2%3%8%

8%

22%

23%

34%


33,500

New airplanesDeliveries by region

NewRegion airplanes

• Asia Pacific 11,450

• Europe 7,550

• North America 7,530

• Latin America 2,570

• Middle East 2,520

• CIS 1,080

• Africa 800

Total 33,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

$70Regional jets

2%

$1,950Single aisle

48%

$1,770Twin aisle

43%

$270Large7%

Market valuein billions

Leasing andgovernment

Middle East,Central andSouth Asia

China, East andSoutheast Asia

Asia Pacific

Russiaand Europe

Latin America,Africa, andCaribbean

North America

16%

14%

7%

13%

15%

17%

18%

New Airplanes


2011 to 2030Freighters 2,960

Share of fleet

0% 440 280

25% 690

50%

75% 1,240

100% 310

2030Freighters3,500

2010Freighters

1,760

Market valuein billions

Standard Less than 45 tonnes

• Converted

Medium40 to 80 tonnes

• New • Converted

LargeMore than 80 tonnes

• New • Converted

• Cargo traffic change • Actual traffic *Revenue tonne-kilometers

Change in cargo trafficyear over year percent

World air cargo trafficRTKs* in billions

25020%

$50Medium40 to 80tonnes

$200Large

More than80 tonnes

Freighter market970 new and 1,990 converted

Freighter marketAnnual growth: 5.7% since 1980

Freighter marketMarket value: $250 billion

Delivery units

250

50

0

200 80%

100

150

20%

200

150

100

50

0

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

1980

1990

2000

2010

Freighter Market

Resilient demand for air cargoAir cargo traffic (based on revenue tonne-kilometers) is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent over the next 20 years. Growing world trade, increasing demand for transport of perishable and time-sensitive commodities, and the need to replace aging airplanes will create a requirement for 2,960 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years. About 1,990 of these will be conversions from passenger service, and 970 airplanes with a value of US$250 billion will be delivered new. The air cargo fleet will grow at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, nearly doubling from 1,760 airplanes in 2010 to 3,500 in 2030.

Standard-body freighter market favors conversionsThe largest segment of this market by number of airplanes is standard-body freighters, with a total requirement for 1,240 airplanes. Airplanes converted from passenger to cargo have low capital costs that make them attractive for standard-body freight operations.

Express carriers driving medium widebody marketOf the 720 medium widebody freighters to be delivered during the forecast period, 280 will be new, purpose-built freighters. This freighter segment is largely driven by express carriers with time-sensitive cargo. The larger capacity of medium widebody versus standard-body freighters provides operating cost advantages in this market. Though large freighters hold a greater economic advantage in range and tonne-kilometers, the lower trip costs of medium widebody freighters offer greater flexibility in the scheduling and frequency of shipments.

Intercontinental market favors new large freightersIn the large freighter segment, more than half of the demand will be for new airplanes. The purchase price of converted large freighters is very attractive, and conversions will continue to play an important supporting role. However, the performance and reliability advantages of new, purpose-built freighters are significant for intercontinental cargo operations, where larger, heavier payloads and range are crucial. Of the 1,000 large freighter deliveries, 690 will be new airplanes.


Global trendsUS International Trade Commission

Global trendsChina domestic frequencies

1990 2010

Total weekly 388 7,158ASKs*

Weekly 2,088 43,708frequencies

Total airport 170 1,027pairs

Airplane 156 156size (seats)

Domestic frequencies have increased more than nineteen-fold since 1990.

2010 *Available seat-kilometers.

1990

Source: August OAG,Daily Service

Global trendsCentral Europe domestic frequencies

1990 2010

Total weekly 358 2,174ASKs*

Weekly 2,062 7,311frequencies

Total airport 294 1,045pairs

Airplane 118 133size (seats)

Liberalization stimulates air traffic.

Source: August OAG,Daily Service

2010 *Available seat-kilometers.

1990

Tokyo

-5 -100 -15 -20 -25

1996 US dollarsin billions

GDP impact of removing agreements from the US economy.

CFTA

NAFTA

Uruguay

US-IsraelFTA

Global Trends

Industry growth in an era of uncertaintyBoeing’s business analysis includes extensive study of global geopolitical dynamics that influence commercial aviation. This research focuses on current events as well as long-term trends. The analysis helps to determine risk and opportunity in the commercial aviation market as a whole, and in specific regions around the world.

Recent global events, including regional political turmoil, natural disasters, and debt crises, have affected global economic growth. While growth is expected to recover, the risk of persistent high oil prices and debt contagion could have lasting effects. Economic growth also could be affected by slowing trade liberalization in some regions. Reduced liberalization could prolong the recovery period, adversely affecting the demand for air travel and new airplanes.

WTO rulings and airplane financeGovernment subsidies for aircraft development remain a concern; however, recent World Trade Organization rulings make clear that such government support must be provided on commercial terms. In the area of export finance, the new Aircraft Sector Understanding agreement implemented in early 2011 helps to level the playing field for aircraft manufacturers and airlines.

Unlike trade liberalization, the pace of air services liberalization has not slowed significantly, although some governments are resistant to further progress. Much of this is due to a reluctance to allow increased foreign ownership levels in domestic airlines. Continued aviation liberalization stimulates competition, giving passengers more choices and generally lowering ticket prices, which increases demand for air travel.

Infrastructure, environment, and securityThe Current Market Outlook projects that the global large commercial airplane fleet will nearly double by the year 2030. This level of growth will require a significant infrastructure investment to accommodate increased traffic. Air traffic management modernization initiatives are critical for both capacity enhancement and system efficiency.

The aviation industry is addressing environmental challenges with a three-pronged strategy of designing more efficient aircraft, improving operational procedures, and developing sustainable biofuels. Moreover, governments throughout the world are aligning with the industry’s strategies to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutral growth. This approach will allow the industry to grow over the long term, despite anticipated regulatory constraints.

While significant improvements in aviation security have been made globally since 9/11, constant vigilance is still required. Security concerns will continue to affect commercial aviation operations.


Pilot and technician outlookTraining to support 33,000 airplane deliveries

2011 to 2030Pilots

460,000

0 18%

20%

40%

500,000 2% 3%

400,0008%

9%

300,000

200,000

100,000

2030Pilots470,400

2011Pilots

237,400

Pilot and technician outlookDemand for pilots by 2030

• Latin America • CIS • Africa• Asia Pacific • North America • Europe • Middle East

Supporting fleet growth and retirements

2011 to 2030Technicians

650,000

0 21%

20%

38%

2% 3%

8%

8%

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2030Technicians324,600

2011Technicians

184,400

Pilot and technician outlookDemand for technicians by 2030

Supporting fleet growth and retirements

• Latin America • CIS • Africa• Asia Pacific • North America • Europe • Middle East

NEW!

Our focus is

adapting and

configuring our

training for future

generations

Pilot and Technician Outlook

Pilot and technician training requirementsAs the world commercial fleet expands to more than 39,500 airplanes over the next 20 years, the world’s airlines will need to add 460,000 pilots and 650,000 maintenance technicians, both to fly and maintain the new airplanes and to replace current personnel who are due to retire during the period.

Airplane manufacturers and the aviation industry must keep pace with technology—including online and mobile computing— in order to match the learning styles of tech-savvy pilots and technicians. The growing diversity of pilots and maintenance technicians in training will require instructors to have cross-cultural and cross-generational skills in addition to digital training tools and up-to-date knowledge of the airplanes. Training programs will need to be tailored to enable airplane operators to gain the optimum advantage of the innovative features offered on the latest generation of airplanes, such as the 787 Dreamliner.

Pilot outlookThe signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets. Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints. The forecast doubling of the worldwide commercial fleet emphasizes the increasing need for well-trained aviation personnel.

The largest projected growth in pilot demand continues to come from the Asia Pacific region, with a requirement for 183,200 pilots over the next 20 years. China’s expected requirement for 72,700 pilots is the region’s largest. Europe will need 92,500 pilots, North America 82,800, Latin America 41,200, the Middle East 36,600, Africa 14,300, and the CIS 9,900.

Technician outlookThe demand for trained maintenance personnel will grow in proportion to the expanding global fleet. Many emerging markets currently recruit trained personnel from outside the region to fulfill their growing need for maintenance mechanics, technicians, and managers. There will be a strong need for basic skills training in these emerging markets to develop a local source of technicians.

The need for maintenance personnel will grow most rapidly in the Asia Pacific region, which will require 247,400 new personnel. China’s requirement will be the region’s greatest, with an expected need for 108,300 maintenance personnel. North America will need to add 134,800 maintenance personnel, Europe 129,600, the Middle East 53,000, Latin America 52,500, Africa 19,200, and the CIS 13,500.


World regionsNew airplane market by region

MiddleEast

Europe

LatinAmerica

Asia Pacific

CISNorth America

Africa

World regionsMarket value: $4,060 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 820 2%Twin aisle 7,330 22%Single aisle 23,370 70%Regional jets 1,980 6%Total 33,500

2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 770 1,140Twin aisle 3,640 8,570Single aisle 12,100 27,750Regional jets 2,900 2,070Total 19,410 39,530

Growth measuresEconomy (GDP) 3.3%Traffic (RPK) 5.1%Cargo (RTK) 5.6%Airplane fleet 3.6%

Market sizeDeliveries 33,500Market value $4,060BAverage value $120M

World regionsKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

6%2%

22%

70%


33,500

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes39,530

2010Airplanes

19,410

World Regions

Regional distinctionsDifferences in the air transport markets of the various regions and the continuous evolution of airline business models cause airplane demand to vary from one region to another. As new airlines emerge, more mature airlines seek ways to preserve and increase their share of the passenger market. Market growth strategies include increasing frequency of service, expanding the number of city pairs served, offering new products, and introducing products to serve the business passenger—all while staying true to the airline’s brand image. The business models of mature airlines are also evolving through mergers and acquisitions; joint ventures with alliance partners; innovative long-haul products, such as Air New Zealand’s Skycouch™; introduction of premium economy class products; and reassessment of short-haul services.

Each region’s airplane demand reflects its unique market characteristics. For example, demand in North America and Europe concentrates on single-aisle jetliners, driven primarily by the need to replace aging airplanes. In Asia Pacific and the Middle East, on the other hand, the passenger market favors business models that rely heavily on twin-aisle airplanes, so twin-aisle jetliners account for a larger share of total airplane demand in those regions than in other regions.

Globalized demandAt a global level, the number of airplanes in the world fleet grows an average 3.6 percent each year. At the same time, passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger-kilometers, grows 5.1 percent per year. Cargo traffic, measured in revenue tonne-kilometers, grows 5.6 percent a year. The increasing geographical diversity of the aviation industry underlies this expansion and significantly increases the industry’s resilience to regional fluctuations. Notably, some regions were less affected than others by the recent economic crisis and a few regions even continued to grow through the global downturn.


Asia PacificMarket value: $1,510 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 350 3%Twin aisle 2,920 26%Single aisle 7,680 67%Regional jets 500 4%Total 11,450

2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 340 510Twin aisle 1,050 3,280Single aisle 2,860 9,180Regional jets 160 510Total 4,410 13,480


Market sizeDeliveries 11,450Market value $1,510BAverage value $130M

Asia PacificKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

4%3%

67%


11,450

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes13,480

2010Airplanes

4,410

Asia PacificNew airplanes: 11,450

26%

NortheastAsia

Oceania

SouthAsia

China

SoutheastAsia

Asia Pacific

Growing marketsThe global economic downturn did not overwhelm the vigor of this region’s economies–most were able to sustain growth. Recovery on the global scale and the region’s intrinsic economic strength are expected to lead to rapid expansion in the coming years. The region’s economy will significantly outpace the world’s average growth rate, expanding at a rate of 4.7 percent per year for the next 20 years, with China and India leading the way. The region’s share of the world GDP will expand from 27 percent today to 35 percent by 2030.

Rising traffic levelsDuring the next 20 years, approximately half of the world’s air traffic growth will be driven by travel to, from, or within the Asia Pacific region. Total air traffic for the region will grow 6.7 percent per year during the period. Fueled by development of the region’s national economies and the increasing accessibility of air transport services, traffic within the region will grow faster than traffic to and from the region. Short-haul flying, including domestic and international travel within the region, will grow 7.0 percent per year.

Air cargo plays a critical role in the region’s economy, transporting goods over difficult terrain and vast stretches of ocean. Some of the world’s largest and most efficient cargo operators are located in Asia, competing to transport high-value and time-sensitive exports to markets outside the region. Air cargo growth will total 6.3 percent per year during the next 20 years. To service this demand, carriers within the region are expected to take 360 new freighters, with an additional 510 conversions.

To modernize their fleets and meet the growing demand for air transport, Asia Pacific airlines will need 11,450 new airplanes valued at $1.5 trillion over the next 20 years. The number of airplanes in the Asia Pacific fleet will nearly triple, from 4,410 airplanes in 2010 to 13,480 airplanes in 2030.

Liberalization expands marketsThe structure of the airline industry in Asia Pacific is changing as regulations are liberalized and carriers find innovative ways to expand beyond national boundaries to serve burgeoning demand. The impact of liberalization is particularly dramatic in the case of low-cost airlines, which are stimulating air travel by lowering fares and opening new markets. In order to compete, established airlines are forming low-cost units, further expanding the affordability and availability of air travel. Where market development has outpaced official liberalization of markets, new airlines have been launched as international joint ventures, carrying established travel brands into new markets.


ChinaMarket value: $600 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 80 160Twin aisle 260 1,200Single aisle 1,330 4,270Regional jets 80 300Total 1,750 5,930


Market sizeDeliveries 5,000Market value $600BAverage value $120M

ChinaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

6%2%

71%


5,000

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes5,930

2010Airplanes

1,750

21%

ChinaCity pairs flown by mainland carriers

City pairsby carriers

20102000

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

•International • Intra-China

Source:OAG August

Schedules

108 258

624 1,032

China

China market—a 10-year reflection China, for more than a decade, has been forecast by the Boeing Current Market Outlook to be the second largest market for new airplanes (after the United States). Its progress over the past decade attests to the region’s tremendous potential.

The number of passengers carried by China’s airlines in 2010 was 3.5 times the total in 2000. The in-service jet fleet more than tripled to 1,750 airplanes by 2010, up from 560 airplanes in 2000. In mainland China, the number of commercial aviation airports increased from 139 in 2000 to 175 in 2010. Volumes of passengers, freight, and airplane arrivals and departures at airports in 2010 increased dramatically (4.2, 3.6, and 3.1 times, respectively) over 2000 levels. The domestic network of mainland carriers expanded to 1,032 city pairs in 2010 (from 624 in 2000), while their international footprint more than doubled to 258 city pairs in 2010 (from 108 in 2000).

In 2010, for the first time ever, China’s Big Three and Cathay Pacific were among the world’s top 15 carriers, measured in revenue passenger-kilometers; none was on the list in 2000. In addition, Beijing Capital became the second busiest passenger airport. Hong Kong airport surpassed Memphis to become the top cargo airport by tonnage, with Shanghai Pudong airport coming in third.

Plans for full-spectrum expansionLooking ahead, China has articulated policies and macro plans to encourage the international expansion of its airlines and address issues regarding air traffic management and infrastructure. By 2015, China will add 55 new airports, bringing the total available for commercial aviation use to at least 230. As the nation’s high-speed rail network begins full operation, the trains will connect neighboring cities and transport passengers to airports for longer haul air travel. In addition, China is developing indigenous commercial airplanes.

The second largest marketIn retrospect, China’s air travel has been sustained by strong economic growth, increased trade, rising personal income, and progress in market liberalization. At the same time, the rapid increase in air travel, combined with unparalleled connectivity, has fostered economic and social interaction within China as well as between China and the rest of the world.

Over the next 20 years, China’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 7.0 percent, with the demand for air travel growing at an annual rate of 7.6 percent. As the world’s second largest market, China’s airlines by 2030 will need 5,000 new airplanes valued at $600 billion.


Northeast AsiaMarket value: $200 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 80 6%Twin aisle 500 40%Single aisle 570 46%Regional jets 100 8%Total 1,250

2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 80 120Twin aisle 310 600Single aisle 270 690Regional jets 30 110Total 690 1,520



Northeast AsiaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

8%6%

46%


1,250

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes1,520

2010Airplanes

690

40%

Northeast AsiaCapacity growth with Asia Pacific

Weekly ASKsin millions

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

• Asia Pacific• Other regions

• Europe• Intra–NE Asia• North America

1990 2000 2010

Northeast Asia

Modest economic growthNortheast Asia’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.3 percent annually for the next 20 years. This modest growth projection for the region reflects the heavy influence of Japan, which is experiencing lower birth rates and a declining working-age population. The region’s economy will benefit somewhat from Korea’s developing economy, which will grow at a faster rate as its industrial base broadens.

In general, Northeast Asia’s nations are relatively small, in terms of total area, and somewhat isolated by water. The region’s air travel grew rapidly in the 1990s, but growth has dampened over the past decade. This slowdown is due to a variety of factors, including the Asian financial crisis, concerns about SARS, the sluggish performance of the economy, and, most recently, disruptions caused by earthquakes and tsunamis.

Cumulative growth in air travel capacity has reached only 5 percent over the past 10 years. Capacity between Northeast Asia and North America has dropped significantly as airlines have extended direct nonstop service into other markets in the Asia Pacific region. At the same time, capacity between Northeast Asia and other markets in the Asia Pacific region has grown by 36 percent since 2000.

Easing operating restrictionsNortheast Asia’s air travel is forecast to grow 4.3 percent annually over the next 20 years. Operating restrictions within the region are gradually easing. Restrictions involving the United States, Europe, China, and other Asia Pacific nations are also liberalizing, encouraging major network carriers and low-cost airlines to open new markets and to expand services in existing markets. The combined effect of liberalization and rapid economic growth is driving passenger traffic between Northeast Asia and other Asia Pacific countries to grow at a brisk pace. Airport capacity is increasing, particularly at Tokyo’s Haneda and Narita airports. Improved market access; ongoing airport development; increased competition; and expansion of low- cost service to, from, and within the region will nurture the continued growth of air travel.

Fleet modernization continuesNortheast Asia’s airlines will need 1,250 new airplanes over the next 20 years. Airlines in Japan and South Korea have wisely continued to modernize their fleets in recent years, demonstrating their focus on longer term planning. The number of regional jets, including the anticipated Mitsubishi MRJ, is forecast to grow slightly. Single-aisle airplanes for intra- and inter-regional service by major carriers and low-cost airlines will account for 46 percent of new deliveries.

New twin-aisle airplanes, with compelling market economics and flexibility to serve long-range markets, will account for 40 percent of new deliveries. The number of large airplanes in the region’s fleet is expected to remain relatively constant. However, their percentage share of the total fleet will decrease, due to the economic and operational advantages of midsize twin-aisle airplanes.


South AsiaMarket value: $170 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 0 0%Twin aisle 270 18%Single aisle 1,170 79%Regional jets 40 3%Total 1,480

2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 10 0Twin aisle 100 330Single aisle 350 1,510Regional jets 10 40Total 470 1,880



South AsiaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

3%0%

79%


1,480

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes1,880

2010Airplanes

470

South AsiaRegional traffic growth

18%

2010

• Intra–South Asia

• South Asia–Middle East

• South Asia–Europe

• South Asia–Southeast Asia

• Other travel

RPKsin billions

2020 2030

Source:CMO 2011 Passenger

Traffic Forecast

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

South Asia

Strong traffic growthTravel to, from, and within South Asia is expected to achieve an average annual growth rate of 8.1 percent over the next 20 years, significantly outpacing all other regions in this report. The economic and demographic trends driving the expansion of air travel are very strong. In 2010, the combined population of South Asian countries totaled 1.65 billion people. Residents, on average, are relatively young by world standards. Real gross domestic product (GDP), per capita, has expanded significantly, growing at an average annual rate of 7.2 percent from 2000 to 2010.

The commercial aviation industry has been helped by liberalization in key markets, including the domestic Indian market and travel between India and the Middle East. Liberalization is allowing airlines to open more routes, add more frequencies, and experiment with new business models. Reforms have also increased competition between airlines, thereby lowering prices. As a result, air services within the region have become more convenient and less expensive. This has happened at a time when people’s ability to travel has increased.

India’s airlines expandIndia’s airlines suffered a period of declining traffic from mid- 2008 to mid-2009. While this downturn was largely the result of the global economic downturn, difficulties were compounded by an ill-timed influx of new capacity, resulting in unsustainable price competition between airlines. But the industry has weathered these challenges, and the healthier carriers are once again expanding.

Although service to the largest cities is generally strong, airlines are considering options for serving smaller cities with smaller aircraft. As this service develops, air travel will become accessible to a broader section of the Indian population, and traffic feeds into the main routes will be stronger.

Indian international air traffic weathered economic hard times much better than did domestic traffic. After a brief period of declining international passenger counts in early 2009, strong growth resumed and it is expected to continue. Particularly robust traffic gains are expected for routes between India and the Middle East, which have been given a boost by the entry of low-cost carriers.

Growing international trade and tourismOutside of India, South Asian airlines are preparing to meet a growing demand for service resulting from increased international trade and the increasing ability of resident populations to travel abroad. Intraregional tourism is already well established, including active routes between India, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. As household incomes rise, vacation travel both within and outside the region is expected to grow.


Southeast AsiaMarket value: $410 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 130 190Twin aisle 300 880Single aisle 600 2,030Regional jets 20 50Total 1,050 3,150



Southeast AsiaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

2%5%

62%


2,750

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes3,150

2010Airplanes

1,050

Southeast AsiaFrequency growth in largest markets

31%

500300100

Frequenciesper week

• 2008 • 2011

Kuala Lumpur–Singapore

Manila–Singapore

Jakarta–Singapore

Jakarta–Kuala Lumpur

+121%

+69%

+22%

+19%

Source:May OAG

Southeast Asia

Airlines expand operationsAirlines in Southeast Asia have emerged from the global economic downturn in a much stronger position. Low-cost carriers expanded and gained market share, and their attractive fares and new routes continue to stimulate demand. Legacy carriers restructured both their operations and their finances to grow and become more competitive. Regional markets will continue to grow rapidly as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) strengthens ties for business and leisure travel, both within ASEAN and with China and Taiwan. Travelers are also increasingly likely to include multiple stops on their itineraries as low fares and integration of regional networks make this more attractive. Southeast Asian airlines have dramatically increased their orders for new airplanes in an effort to meet growing demand and open up new, direct, longer range markets. New, efficient airplanes with improved capabilities and lower operating costs are integral to the carriers’ business strategies.

Liberalization opens routesRegulatory changes and infrastructure improvements are crucial to air travel expansion. Relaxation of market regulations among ASEAN nations, as well as in the cross-strait market between Taiwan and China, has removed many traditional barriers to growth. For example, more than 400 passenger flights per week are now scheduled between Taiwan and China, where service had previously been strictly limited to charter flights. Scheduled service will soon increase to more than 700 flights per week. Flights among ASEAN capital cities have also increased, marking an intermediate step in the path to a unified regional aviation market. Several carriers, not waiting for regulatory liberalization, are aggressively expanding into new markets by acquiring or partnering with other Southeast Asian carriers— operating their fleets as extensions of their own networks. Governments and airport authorities in the region are eager to expand their aviation infrastructures and capitalize on increased trade and tourism. Twenty-seven projects to upgrade and expand airports have been completed, begun construction, or are being planned.

Airlines bolster economic growthCountries in Southeast Asia continue to strengthen their economic relationships and encourage collaboration. Air transportation plays a vital role in the region’s above average (4.8 percent annually over 10 years) projected gross domestic product growth. For example, the development of more affordable air travel options has spurred growth throughout the region’s services sector, including tourism and financial services. The strength of the region’s air cargo operations enables the efficient shipment of manufactured goods. Overall, Southeast Asian air travel—to, from, and within the region—is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent over the next 20 years. Intraregional traffic alone is expected to grow at a rate of 7.4 percent per year. More than half of the deliveries will be single-aisle airplanes, which will be needed to serve routes within the region.


OceaniaMarket value: $130 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 30 3%Twin aisle 260 27%Single aisle 670 69%Regional jets 10 1%Total 970



Market sizeDeliveries 970Market value $130BAverage value $130M

OceaniaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

1%3%

69%


970

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes1,000

2010Airplanes

450

OceaniaDeregulation leads to increased competition

27%

Source:August

OAG

30

• Delta Air Lines

• V Australia• Qantas

• United Airlines

2011

0 5 10 15 20 25

Weekly seatsin thousands

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Oceania

A thriving marketAlthough Oceania is a region with fewer than 40 million people (0.5 percent of the world’s population), it accounts for 3.2 percent of global air traffic. Traffic is forecasted to continue growing as the region establishes stronger connections with other Asia Pacific nations and the world. Traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5 percent over the next 20 years. Most of this growth will come from flights to and from Oceania, rather than from flights within the region. Flights to Southeast Asia will increase as that region grows as an intermediate point between Oceania and the rest of the world. In addition, there will be more connecting flights to North America, the Middle East, and especially China, as trade and tourism continue to rise. Companies in China are looking to Australia for raw resources; therefore, traffic between those nations is expected to grow at a rapid pace.

Airline strategies continue to changeOver the past decade, Oceania’s commercial aviation market has changed dramatically as airlines have redefined themselves amid economic uncertainty. Qantas, in response to the rise of low-cost carriers (LCC), has successfully introduced its own LCC, Jetstar. Virgin Blue sought to compete against Qantas by creating a spinoff airline (V Australia), but has since changed its strategy and will rebrand all of its airlines under the name Virgin Australia. Air New Zealand has continued to innovate by introducing Boeing 777-300ERs with unique economy Skycouch seats. In general, liberalization of markets is leading international carriers to compete for passengers traveling to and from Oceania.

New airplanes are neededIncreased traffic and changing business strategies are creating a demand for new airplanes in the region. Over the next 20 years, it is expected that approximately 970 new airplanes will be delivered to airlines within Oceania, including 670 single-aisle airplanes to transport people within the region and to nearby Southeast Asia. International traffic will require about 260 additional twin-aisle airplanes and 30 large commercial airplanes. As the region becomes more interconnected with the rest of the world, the economical new 787 Dreamliner will be in demand to serve longer, thinner routes.


Improvement continues despite short-term challengesThe North American commercial aviation market in 2010 improved for the second consecutive year. While air traffic grew at a modest 3 percent, strict capacity discipline (up 1 percent) kept passenger flights relatively full, with load factors averaging 83 percent. Low-cost carriers generated the majority of growth, with passenger traffic increasing 6 percent and capacity up 3 percent. Load factors averaged 80 percent.

Cost and capacity discipline led to improved financial results in 2010, with net profits of at least US$4 billion. Due to continued fuel price volatility and economic uncertainty, however, IATA is revising its 2011 regional forecast downward, with net profits projected at around US$1 billion.

Industry consolidates and strengthens alliancesThe region’s airline industry continues to consolidate, highlighted by major mergers, including the recent acquisition of AirTran by Southwest Airlines. Once the merged carriers have been integrated, the top four US airlines (United, Delta, American, and Southwest) will have a commanding market share, controlling 80 percent of available capacity. Consolidations and increased market concentration are expected to produce a period of stability over the long term.

Global airline alliances continue to grow stronger, as evidenced by the recently implemented trans-Pacific joint venture between Star Alliance members, ANA, and United Airlines. Initially, coordination will include integrating the airlines’ networks and schedules, along with setting airfares.

In 2011, the oneworld alliance is strengthening its ties through trans-Atlantic network enhancements. For example, American Airlines and British Airways are jointly operating a high-frequency shuttle between New York City and London.

Fleet outlook for the next 20 yearsThe long-term outlook for North American commercial aviation is favorable. Airlines are expected to continue focusing on capacity discipline and improving financial performance. Barring a prolonged economic downturn, the airline industry is poised for long-term, moderate growth. As a result, we are increasing our demand forecast in the single-aisle category by 330 airplanes.

Traffic demand within North America is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2 percent, which is below average; however, a majority of this increased growth in the single-aisle category is related to traffic traveling to and from economically dynamic regions in Central and South America.

Long-haul international traffic will continue to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 4.5 percent. This growth is expected to result in demand for an additional 1,180 new fuel-efficient, twin-aisle airplanes, including the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

North AmericaMarket value: $760 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 110 140Twin aisle 1,000 1,630Single aisle 3,720 6,800Regional jets 1,780 760Total 6,610 9,330



North AmericaKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

11%1%

73%


7,530

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes9,330

2010Airplanes

6,610

North America7,530 new airplanes required over next 20 years

15%

Airplane fleet2010–2030

• 2030 • Retained• 2010 • Retired • New

12,000

(8,000)

(4,000)

4,000

8,000

0

North America


Economic reboundThe European commercial aviation market remained strong in 2010, despite losses from snow and volcanic ash closing air-ports and canceling flights. The Association of European Airlines reports that the total number of scheduled passengers carried by member airlines was up 2.7 percent in 2010, compared to the previous year. Over the same period, members of the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA) experienced a 6.1 percent increase in passengers. European airlines in 2010 acquired more than 270 new airplanes, of which 79 percent were single aisle. European GDP rebounded in 2010, increasing by 2 percent over 2009.

Sustained growth is expected to continue over the next 20 years, with European airlines forecasted to acquire a total of 7,550 new airplanes valued at US$880 billion. A majority of the incoming aircraft are expected to be single aisle, which will account for approximately 75 percent of the total fleet.

Europe is an economically diverse region, with both mature nations as well as newer, high-growth economies. Despite areas of uncertainty, Europe’s overall GDP is expected to continue to grow at an average rate of 2 percent per year. The European Union’s efforts to pursue transport liberalization are contributing to this growth, with negotiations taking place with Turkey, Brazil, India, Korea, and other countries.

Leading strategic changeAirline operations continue to change as new ventures are launched and new business models are applied. Additional mergers and acquisitions are expected over the next 20 years, along with increased emphasis on collaboration with alliance partners around the world.

There is a trend among large network airlines to shift their focus away from short-haul routes that are targeted by low-cost carriers and focus instead on longer haul routes. In 2010, network carriers announced new routes or increased service to cities such as Buenos Aires, Quito, Guayaquil, Miami, San Juan, Haneda, Singapore, and Rio. Meanwhile, low-cost carriers have continued to add service in the short-haul markets, with ELFAA members in 2010 providing 30 percent of capacity on intra-Europe flights.

EnvironmentEuropean airlines are continuing to reduce their environmental impact. In part, this is being done by replacing older, less efficient airplanes with newer technology planes such as the 787 Dreamliner. By the end of our 20-year forecast period, more than 94 percent of the jetliners acquired by European airlines will have been delivered as new.

EuropeMarket value: $880 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 180 220Twin aisle 670 1,560Single aisle 3,090 5,920Regional jets 440 310Total 4,380 8,010



EuropeKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

4%2%

19%

75%


7,550

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes8,010

2010Airplanes

4,380

EuropeEnvironmental strategy means more new airplanes

100%

Share of fleet

2030Airplane fleet

8,010

75%

50%

25%

0%

94%New airplanes

Better for:• Environment• Passengers• Airlines

6%Remaining airplanes

Europe


Middle East carriers gain long-haul market share While air transport markets in the rest of the world shrank during the global economic downturn of 2009, international air travel continued to grow for Middle East carriers, demonstrating the region’s prominence in global air travel. International traffic continued to grow during 2010, rising 17.8 percent for Middle Eastern carriers—far exceeding the world average of 8.2 percent growth.

Strong traffic growth The civil unrest in Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Tunisia has dampened the outlook for 2011. While the impact to global traffic has been relatively minor, some of the region’s most important destinations have been affected.

Despite the turmoil, the region’s economy is forecast to grow 6 percent in 2011, outpacing the world average. The six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council are forecast to average 7.8 percent growth as energy production expands to cover the shortfall from other oil-producing countries.

Rapid capacity increase Capacity at the three carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, collectively has grown 23 percent annually over the past 10 years. Their growth is likely to continue as the large backlog of new, efficient airplanes that the three carriers have on order will provide a competitive advantage over European and Asian rivals. Approximately half the 885 airplanes on order in the Middle East, including 72 percent of the widebodies, will go to these carriers.

Strategy based on location The market strategy of the “Gulf 3” airlines is based on the so-called sixth freedom, which allows an operator in one country to carry passengers or cargo from a second country to a third country via a scheduled stop in the operator’s home country. Sixth freedom privileges have enabled Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad to take advantage of their central location to expand their share of traffic between Europe and Asia. This huge air travel market does not depend on the relatively small populations of the home countries. The three carriers have also expanded into new markets, offering more than 100 weekly frequencies to destinations in the Americas—including Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Toronto, and Sao Paulo. More than 70 weekly flights are offered in the rapidly growing China market.

Newly emerged low-cost carriers are stimulating demand for travel, targeting the young local population and the large migrant workforce. Flying short- and medium-haul routes within the region and to Africa, India, and Eastern Europe, the low-cost carriers supply only 4 percent of the region’s capacity, yet they account for more than one-third of the region’s backlog of single-aisle airplanes.

Middle EastMarket value: $450 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 70 200Twin aisle 440 1,120Single aisle 480 1,310Regional jets 50 80Total 1,040 2,710



Middle EastKey indicators and new airplane markets


Delivery units

3%7%

44%

46%


2,520

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes2,710

2010Airplanes

1,040

Source:AirclaimsMiddle East

Large backlog, spread over the decade

160

Airplane orders

• Large

• Twin aisle• Single aisle

• Regional jets

201112

201314

120804020

201516

2017

201920

2021

18

Middle East


A bright futureThe region’s economy is projected to grow strongly over the next 20 years, spurring Latin American air traffic growth to exceed the world average. Traffic within the region is expected to grow at a rapid pace, most quickly within South America, where growth will average 7.0 percent per year. By 2030, South America will have the sixth largest internal traffic flow among the regions covered in the Current Market Outlook. Total traffic carried by Latin American airlines will grow 6.9 percent annually.

Business developmentsAir travel is assuming an increasingly important role in the region’s commerce as travelers switch from roads to air transportation. Rising prosperity is also creating demand for international travel. More citizens can afford to travel outside the region and more businesses seek wider economic bonds. In addition, the upcoming Olympic Games and World Cup will require a growth in airline fleets and infrastructure in South America. The region has a large number of new jets on order to meet this escalating demand, with network carriers and low-cost carriers placing 187 orders in 2010.

Airlines have been consolidating to expand their businesses across the region. During 2010, Avianca and TACA completed their merger, and LAN and TAM announced their merger into LATAM. Opportunities may exist for further consolidation in the region over the next 20 years. These more competitive airlines will allow Latin America to have a more substantial stake in the airline market. Today, Latin American airlines account for 48 percent of the traffic to, from, or within Latin America. By 2030, that number will grow to 61 percent.

Growing fleetProjected GDP growth of 4.2 percent per year over the next 20 years will help drive the commercial fleet to grow 5.6 percent annually. By 2030, the fleet will consist of 3,390 airplanes. Most of the fleet delivered over the next 20 years will be new single-aisle airplanes for travel within the region. About 360 twin-aisle and larger airplanes will be used for connections with the rest of the world as international commerce increases. By increasing the size of the twin-aisle fleet and using new, efficient airplanes such as the 787, airlines in Latin America will be able to serve new city pairs and give passengers more convenient routes.

Latin AmericaMarket value: $250 billion


2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 10 10Twin aisle 140 410Single aisle 900 2,820Regional jets 100 150Total 1,150 3,390



Latin AmericaKey indicators and new airplane markets

Source:AscendLatin America

Incredible growth in airplane orders


Delivery units

2%<1%

84%


2,570

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes3,390

2010Airplanes

1,150

14%

Airplane orders

2009 65

2010 187

136

162

150

127

58

26

18

22

24

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Latin America


Younger, more efficient fleetThe commercial aviation market in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continues to grow as the region’s airlines add new airplanes to their fleets. We are forecasting that the CIS will acquire 1,080 new airplanes, valued at US$110 billion, over the next 20 years. Of that total, 32 percent of the airplanes are in current backlog and expected to be delivered in the next five years.

The freighter market is also growing, with 60 new airplanes— as well as 130 converted airplanes—needed to meet demand in the region. More than 65 percent of the new freighters will be in the large category.

Economy recoveringThe region’s economies had moderate growth in 2010. GDP was up 4.3 percent, compared to the substantial decline of 4.1 percent in 2009. Overall, we expect the GDP to grow at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent over the next 20 years. Russia continues to be the largest driver of the economy, accounting for 70 percent of GDP in 2010, followed by Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Passenger traffic remains strong—up 10.1 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency. Domestic passengers account for nearly 60 percent of this traffic. Over the next 20 years, air travel is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.2 percent.

Potential for domestic growthA projected 680 new single-aisle airplanes will be needed over the next 20 years to support anticipated domestic growth. Given the diverse geography of the region, airline travel is expected to become more attractive as liberalization occurs and personal incomes increase.

Market growth is being supported by government programs to upgrade airports. In Russia, there are plans to replace a runway at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport in 2015. This will help the airport to reach its planned capacity of 50 million passengers.

The budget travel market is especially underserved in the CIS, because low-cost carriers serve only a small percentage of the domestic market. Currently, low-cost carriers account for less than 4 percent of domestic airline seats in the CIS, which is well below market share in most regions. With only 5 percent of Russia’s population using air services, there are substantial opportunities for airlines to stimulate the market and win new customers.

CISMarket value: $110 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 40 4%Twin aisle 200 18%Single aisle 680 63%Regional jets 160 15%Total 1,080

2010 2030 Fleet FleetLarge 50 50Twin aisle 200 250Single aisle 630 930Regional jets 260 170Total 1,140 1,400



CISKey indicators and new airplane markets

Source:AscendCIS

Strong backlog of 344 airplanes


Delivery units

15%4%

18%

63%


1,080

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes1,400

2010Airplanes

1,140

160

• Large

• Twin aisle• Single aisle

• Regional jets

Delivery units2011

12080400

CIS


Rapid economic growthThe World Bank forecasts that the economies of sub-Saharan Africa will grow 5.3 percent this year and 5.5 percent in 2012. North African and the Middle East economies will grow 4.3 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2012. Commodity markets account for much of this growth, as manufacturing countries, particularly China, seek to hedge against volatility by negotiating long-term contracts with African producers of raw materials. Direct foreign investment, growing urbanization, and rising incomes will spur higher domestic demand for consumer goods and transportation. The International Monetary Fund predicts that over the next 5 years, seven of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies will be in Africa.

Air transport poised for expansionAfricans are turning increasingly to air travel, as road and rail infrastructure remains underdeveloped. The resulting boost in demand for airplanes has generated firm orders for jet and turbo-prop airframes and created a favorable climate for aircraft leasing companies. The average age of the African fleet has declined as established airlines modernize for fuel efficiency and higher capacity. More developed nations such as Nigeria and South Africa have undertaken ambitious airport infrastructure projects to alleviate congestion and address safety concerns. The Yamoussoukro Decision on the Liberalization of Air Transport Markets in Africa, which set out in 1999 to create a single African sky by 2002, has languished in recent years, but is now receiving renewed attention.

Meeting greater competitionMany state-run airlines in Africa have given way to privately owned entities that are better able to compete with the foreign operators currently predominant in intercontinental routes. Competition has markedly increased in recent years as Middle Eastern airlines have introduced larger capacity airplanes, higher frequencies, and lower fares to markets traditionally dominated by European carriers.

African airlines have responded by forming code-share agreements with foreign carriers, particularly with Asian airlines. The entry of African carriers as full or associate members into the three global airline alliances, Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and oneworld, signals even more significant progress in African aviation. The additional market reach that these alliances afford is expected to foster competition on intra-Africa routes and create opportunities for emerging unaffiliated carriers.

AfricaMarket value: $100 billion

New Share airplanes by sizeLarge 10 1%Twin aisle 230 29%Single aisle 510 64%Regional jets 50 6%Total 800



Market sizeDeliveries 800Market value $100BAverage value $130M

AfricaKey indicators and new airplane markets

AfricaGrowth in emerging markets

2000 400 600 800

Annual RPKsin billions

• Within Africa

• Other Africa• Africa-Europe

2030

2020

2010

2000


Delivery units

6%1%

29%

64%


800

100%

0%

75%

50%

25%

Share of fleet

2030Airplanes1,210

2010Airplanes

680

Africa


RPK: Revenue passenger-kilometers. The number of fare-paying passengers multiplied by the number of kilometers they fly (i.e., airline traffic).

Airline passenger trafficGrowth by regional flow

Regions

RPKs in billions

Africa – Africa

Africa – Europe

Africa – Middle East

Africa – N. America

Africa – S.E. Asia

C. America – C. America

C. America – Europe

C. America – N. America

C. America – S. America

China – China

China – Europe

China – N. America

China – N.E. Asia

China – Oceania

China – S.E. Asia

CIS – CIS

CIS – International

Europe – Europe

Europe – Middle East

Europe – N. America

Europe – N.E. Asia

Europe – S. America

Europe – S.E. Asia

Europe – S. Asia

Middle East – Middle East

Middle East – N. America

Middle East – S.E. Asia

Middle East – S. Asia

N. America – N. America

N. America – N.E. Asia

N. America – Oceania

N. America – S. America

N. America – S.E. Asia

N.E. Asia – N.E. Asia

N.E. Asia – Oceania

N.E. Asia – S.E. Asia

Oceania – Oceania

Oceania – S.E. Asia

S. America – S. America

S.E. Asia – S.E. Asia

S.E. Asia – S. Asia

S. Asia – S. Asia

Rest of world

World total

Average growth2010 to 2030

5.1%

4.6%

6.4%

6.4%

7.5%

4.9%

4.4%

4.1%

7.5%

7.5%

7.4%

6.8%

7.6%

7.1%

8.3%

4.8%

3.9%

4.0%

5.4%

3.6%

3.4%

5.1%

5.2%

6.8%

5.0%

7.3%

6.7%

7.0%

2.3%

2.7%

4.4%

7.1%

6.4%

3.3%

3.4%

6.0%

4.7%

5.9%

7.0%

7.4%

8.5%

9.4%

8.2%

5.1%

2007

37.31

125.32

23.09

4.89

4.50

29.68

80.71

106.83

11.01

223.12

91.03

54.52

34.65

19.40

57.47

57.72

81.24

634.21

106.59

420.61

64.73

70.75

92.42

58.51

60.27

23.44

38.74

46.49

1,022.41

126.47

32.11

52.06

38.31

74.92

20.81

85.71

74.35

58.07

83.08

109.18

22.59

36.29

43.22

4,538.85

2006

35.56

121.95

20.87

4.33

4.12

28.18

74.15

104.99

10.33

189.79

75.27

51.44

34.05

19.26

52.94

57.35

63.66

593.32

99.18

403.37

58.78

67.36

97.58

53.26

53.68

20.65

33.79

41.97

977.36

116.55

30.58

50.68

34.13

72.80

19.59

77.03

70.84

53.76

74.25

96.04

19.73

31.31

37.77

4,233.62

2009

43.88

128.17

32.86

8.77

4.19

29.80

77.08

104.67

13.97

287.36

77.33

60.88

34.75

22.79

53.95

48.98

83.72

624.92

131.16

405.40

56.91

79.34

98.46

51.29

68.59

41.56

46.66

64.81

898.06

100.85

34.81

56.87

30.08

71.79

12.89

70.21

73.29

56.45

86.93

109.67

22.27

43.81

69.01

4,519.25

2008

41.58

125.60

24.90

6.28

5.24

32.29

83.29

115.77

13.08

236.53

82.52

62.70

40.49

21.37

58.74

61.23

76.17

660.55

115.15

432.38

66.16

75.17

99.98

55.48

63.37

29.54

43.14

49.46

974.07

118.81

32.26

52.68

38.59

77.24

19.54

84.05

72.01

54.88

81.60

113.61

21.49

40.08

52.40

4,611.48

2010

49.96

138.05

35.70

11.43

5.64

32.39

74.91

111.68

17.95

335.44

82.38

71.18

38.33

27.73

65.70

52.90

99.89

644.13

143.67

423.78

60.03

81.85

100.12

54.74

77.04

45.98

55.94

74.94

918.04

106.34

35.64

60.91

30.73

71.76

16.15

74.08

80.65

62.43

114.04

130.66

28.94

49.05

87.92

4,880.79

2030

136.19

339.17

122.79

39.68

24.01

84.95

177.61

249.66

75.87

1,411.81

340.39

265.30

166.10

110.26

322.46

134.56

214.68

1,412.35

413.05

862.98

116.28

220.93

273.83

205.94

205.28

187.74

204.85

289.95

1,444.63

182.27

84.24

240.14

105.48

138.67

31.28

236.69

200.52

195.03

440.01

539.98

148.90

294.15

421.81

13,312.46

2003

26.67

96.43

13.03

4.38

2.91

25.66

57.44

79.93

7.10

105.11

36.18

24.66

22.46

10.28

36.18

50.23

43.82

474.70

72.39

349.47

53.86

48.09

92.44

33.21

34.95

12.95

22.58

32.80

828.27

104.99

25.40

38.88

24.66

78.83

17.85

55.99

52.09

43.90

51.92

66.34

12.12

17.79

15.24

3,304.18

2002

24.31

92.63

11.46

5.46

3.22

23.54

55.45

76.49

7.14

100.21

41.05

33.42

27.88

11.80

43.32

46.94

39.72

453.80

71.36

345.96

56.93

50.09

96.32

31.51

33.14

10.75

23.71

30.68

783.48

115.77

24.86

43.98

28.97

81.69

19.76

63.69

49.85

43.66

56.97

73.13

13.21

16.92

14.88

3,279.09

2005

35.97

106.37

16.79

3.33

4.07

26.65

67.05

100.59

10.22

164.21

63.10

48.14

31.79

17.55

55.87

55.95

58.07

561.88

87.28

390.71

58.18

63.89

100.35

43.42

48.72

16.08

29.46

36.06

972.26

122.99

29.06

46.23

35.27

70.10

19.00

70.95

65.25

56.66

64.07

95.61

20.69

25.16

31.23

4,026.27

2004

29.48

101.73

12.37

3.76

3.31

26.87

63.71

92.89

9.38

142.45

55.22

38.51

29.01

15.36

49.24

54.75

53.86

521.22

79.85

375.68

58.49

54.97

100.69

37.67

40.83

17.23

26.38

34.34

927.73

113.90

27.93

42.13

29.68

72.66

20.26

66.20

65.23

50.98

58.79

86.71

15.38

21.13

26.38

3,754.33

Passenger Traffic


Passenger and freighter airplanesMarket value and demand by region

Passenger and freighter airplanesIn service and future fleet

Total airplanes in service

Size

Large*

Twin aisle

Single aisle

Regional jets

Total

Passenger airplanes in service

Size

Large*

Twin aisle

Single aisle

Regional jets

Total

Freighter airplanes in service

Size

Large*

Medium widebody

Standard body

Total

Airplane demand

Size

Large*

Twin aisle

Single aisle

Regional jets

Total

Passenger airplane demand

Size

Large*

Twin aisle

Single aisle

Regional jets

Total

Freighter airplane demand

Size

Large*

Medium widebody

Standard body

Total

2030

1,140

8,570

27,750

2,070

39,530

2030

590

6,970

26,410

2,060

36,030

2030

1,240

910

1,350

3,500

Airplanes

820

7,330

23,370

1,980

33,500

Airplanes

570

6,610

23,370

1,980

32,530

Airplanes

690

280

—

970

2010

770

3,640

12,100

2,900

19,410

2010

460

2,820

11,530

2,840

17,650

2010

520

610

630

1,760

$B

270

1,770

1,950

70

4,060

$B

180

1,610

1,950

70

3,810

$B

200

50

—

250

*Large passenger and large freighter categories differ.

Demand and value by region

Region

Asia Pacific

Europe

North America

Latin America

Middle East

CIS

Africa

World

Deliveries by airplane size and region

Region

Asia Pacific

Europe

North America

Latin America

Middle East

CIS

Africa

World

Market value by airplane size and region*

Region

Asia Pacific

Europe

North America

Latin America

Middle East

CIS

Africa

World

Single aisle

7,680

5,660

5,540

2,140

1,160

680

510

23,370

Single aisle

670

480

440

160

100

60

40

$1,950B

Regional jets

500

310

830

60

70

160

50

1,980

Regional jets

10

10

30

2

10

10

2

$70B

Twin aisle

2,920

1,400

1,110

360

1,110

200

230

7,330

Twin aisle

710

330

270

90

280

30

60

$1,770B

$B

1,510

880

760

250

450

110

100

4,060

Large

350

180

50

10

180

40

10

820

Large

120

60

20

3

60

10

2

$270B

Airplanes

11,450

7,550

7,530

2,570

2,520

1,080

800

33,500

Totaldeliveries

11,450

7,550

7,530

2,570

2,520

1,080

800

33,500

Totalvalue

1,510

880

760

250

450

110

100

$4,060B

*2010 $B, catalog prices. Values above 10 have been rounded to the nearest 10.

Airplanes Required


Market by airplane size

Size

Large*

Medium

Small

Total twin aisle

More than 175 seats

90 to 175 seats

Total single aisle

Total regional jets

Total fleet

Passenger fleet development

Size

Large*

Medium

Small

Total twin aisle

More than 175 seats

90 to 175 seats

Total single aisle

Total regional jets

Total passenger fleet

Freighter fleet development

Size

Large*

Medium widebody

Standard body

Total freighter fleet

Total fleet

Size

Passenger fleet

Freighter fleet

Total fleet

Marketshare units

2%

12%

10%

24%

13%

57%

70%

6%

100%

End of year 2030

590

3,760

3,210

7,560

4,770

21,640

26,410

2,060

36,030

End of year 2030

1,240

910

1,350

3,500

End of year 2030

36,030

3,500

39,530

New airplanedeliveries

820

4,030

3,300

8,150

4,390

18,980

23,370

1,980

33,500

New deliveries2011 to 2030

570

3,590

3,020

7,180

4,390

18,980

23,370

1,980

32,530


690

280

0

970


32,530

970

33,500

Marketshare value

7%

27%

16%

50%

11%

37%

48%

2%

100%

Convertedto freighter

—

—

—

750

—

—

1,240

—

1,990


310

440

1,240

1,990


1,990

1,990

1,990

Market value2010 $B

270

1,090

680

2,040

460

1,490

1,950

70

4,060

Removedfrom service

440

1,370

1,090

2,900

1,100

7,390

8,490

2,760

14,150

Removedfrom service

280

420

520

1,220

Removedfrom service

14,150

1,220

15,370

End of year 2010

460

1,540

1,280

3,280

1,480

10,050

11,530

2,840

17,650

End of year 2010

520

610

630

1,760

End of year 2010

17,650

1,760

19,410


Passenger and freighter airplanesMarket value and fleet development

Fleet Development


In service

970New freighters

1,220Removed freighters

1,760Freighter fleet in 2010

17,650Passenger fleet in 2010

3,500Freighter fleet in 2030

36,030Passenger fleet in 2030

Used

–

–

In service

Parked

Parked

14,150Removed airplanes

Used

+32,530New airplanes

+

+

1,990Converted

tofreighter

12,160Permanently

retired

1,220Permanently

retired

Airplane fleetHow the fleet develops as airplanes are added and removed

Flow of Airplanes


Fleet growthBy size and region

Fleet by airplane size

Size

Large*

Medium

Small

Total twin aisle

More than 175 seats

90 to 175 seats

Total single aisle

Total regional jets

Total fleet

Fleet by region in 2010

Region

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

CIS

Africa

World

Fleet by region in 2030

Region

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

CIS

Africa

World

Fleet share2030

3%

11%

11%

25%

13%

57%

70%

5%

100%

Total fleet

4,410

6,610

4,380

1,150

1,040

1,140

680

19,410

Total fleet

13,480

9,330

8,010

3,390

2,710

1,400

1,210

39,530

Airplanes inservice 2030

1,140

4,450

4,120

9,710

5,320

22,430

27,750

2,070

39,530

Large

340

110

180

10

70

50

10

770

Large

510

140

220

10

200

50

10

1,140

Fleet share2010

4%

9%

10%

23%

9%

53%

62%

15%

100%

Twin aisle

1,050

1,000

670

140

440

200

140

3,640

Twin aisle

3,280

1,630

1,560

410

1,120

250

320

8,570

Airplanes inservice 2010

770

1,750

1,890

4,410

1,690

10,410

12,100

2,900

19,410

Single aisle

2,860

3,720

3,090

900

480

630

420

12,100

Single aisle

9,180

6,800

5,920

2,820

1,310

930

790

27,750

Regional jets

160

1,780

440

100

50

260

110

2,900

Regional jets

510

760

310

150

80

170

90

2,070


Fleet by Region


Major Traffic Flows

Airline passenger growth rates 2010 to 2030

RPKs

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Airline passenger traffic in 2010

RPKs in billions

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Airline passenger traffic in 2030

RPKs in billions

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Asia Pacific

7.0%

Asia Pacific

990.7

Asia Pacific

3,861.1

North America

5.1%

2.3%

North America

253.1

918.0

North America

683.7

1,444.6

Europe

5.9%

3.6%

4.0%

Europe

297.3

423.8

644.1

Europe

936.4

863.0

1,412.4

Middle East

7.2%

7.3%

5.4%

5.0%

Middle East

175.6

46.0

143.7

77.0

Middle East

702.2

187.7

413.1

205.3

Latin America

5.7%

5.4%

4.8%

—

6.7%

Latin America

3.1

172.6

156.8

—

164.4

Latin America

9.3

489.8

398.5

—

600.8

Africa

8.1%

6.4%

4.6%

6.4%

6.0%

5.1%

Africa

17.6

11.4

138.1

35.7

3.1

50.0

Africa

83.9

39.7

339.2

122.8

10.0

136.2

Bold: Share within region.

Airline traffic flowsBy region


Traffic in 2010

RPKs

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Total traffic to and from region

Traffic in 2030

RPKs

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Total traffic to and from region

Africa

7%

4%

54%

14%

1%

20%

100%

Africa

11%

5%

46%

17%

1%

19%

100%

Latin America

1%

33%

31%

—

35%

1%

100%

Latin America

1%

32%

26%

—

40%

1%

100%

Middle East

37%

10%

30%

16%

—

7%

100%

Middle East

43%

12%

25%

18%

—

8%

100%

Europe

16%

23%

36%

8%

7%

8%

100%

Europe

22%

20%

32%

9%

9%

8%

100%

North America

14%

50%

23%

3%

9%

1%

100%

North America

18%

39%

23%

5%

13%

1%

100%

AsiaPacific

57%

15%

17%

10%

—

1%

100%

AsiaPacific

62%

11%

15%

11%

—

1%

100%

Bold: Share within region. Sum data down the table only. Excludes other small flows that are not included in the summary table (less than 1% of each region).

Airline traffic distributionBy region

How to read the tablesRead down the selected column; for example:

• In2010,trafficwithinNorthAmericaaccountedfor50% of all the total traffic to, from, within North America.

• In2030,trafficwithinNorthAmericaaccountedfor39% of all the total traffic to, from, within North America.

Traffic by Region


Passenger and freighterAirplane market sector definitions

90 to 175 seats

Boeing 717, 727

Boeing 737-100 through -500

Boeing 737-600, -700, -800

Airbus A318, A319, A320

Boeing-MDC DC-9, MD-80, -90

AVIC ARJ-900

BAe 146-300, Avro RJ100

Bombardier CRJ-1000

Bombardier CS100, CS300

COMAC C919

Embraer 190, 195

Fokker 100

Ilyushin IL-62

Tupolev TU-154

Yakovlev Yak-42

Medium widebody40 to 80 tonnes

Boeing 767

Lockheed L-1011SF

Boeing-MDC DC-10

Boeing 787

Airbus A300, A310

Airbus A330

Ilyushin IL-76TD

MediumTwo class: 340 to 450 seatsThree class: 260 to 370 seats

Boeing 777

Boeing-MDC MD-11

Airbus A330-300, A340

Airbus A350-900, -1000

Ilyushin IL-86

Single-aisle passenger airplanes

Regional jets

Antonov An-148

AVIC ARJ-700

Avro RJ70, RJ85

BAe 146-100, -200

Bombardier CRJ

Dornier 328JET

Embraer 170, 175

Embraer ERJ-135, -140, -145

Fokker 70, F28

Mitsubishi MRJ

Sukhoi Superjet 100

Yakovlev Yak-40

Freighter airplanes

Standard bodyLess than 45 tonnes

BAe 146

Boeing-MDC DC-8, -9

Boeing 737

Boeing 727

Tupolev TU-204

Boeing 707

Boeing-MDC MD-80

Boeing 757-200

Airbus A318, A319, A320, A321

Twin-aisle passenger airplanes

SmallTwo class: 230 to 340 seatsThree class: 180 to 260 seats

Boeing 767, 787

Boeing-MDC DC-10

Airbus A300, A310

Airbus A330-200

Airbus A350-800

Lockheed L-1011

Ilyushin IL-96

More than 175 seats

Boeing 707, 757

Boeing 737-900ER

Airbus A321

Tupolev TU-204, TU-214

Large*More than 80 tonnes

Boeing-MDC MD-11

Boeing 747-100 through -400

Boeing 777

Airbus A350

Ilyushin IL-96T

Antonov An-124

Large*Three class: more than 400 seats

Boeing 747-8

Airbus A380

Boeing 747

Bold: Airplanes in production or launched. Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified. *Large passenger and large freighter categories differ.

Airplane Categories


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Contact

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AddressBoeing Commercial AirplanesMarket AnalysisP.O. Box 3707, MC 21-28Seattle, WA 98124-2207

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The statements contained herein are based on goodfaith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty, or guarantee of performance.Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.

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